• Earthquakes and Structures
• /
• 제25권6호
• /
• pp.429-442
• /
• 2023

To study the seismic vulnerability of the composite material structure of adobe and timber, we collected and statistically analysed empirical observation samples of 542,214,937 m² and 467,177 buildings that were significantly impacted during the 179 earthquakes that occurred in mainland China from 1976 to 2010. In multi-intensity regions, combined with numerical analysis and a probability model, a non-linear continuous regression model of the vulnerability, considering the empirical seismic damage area (number of buildings) and the ratio of seismic damage, was established. Moreover, a probability matrix model of the empirical seismic damage mean value was provided. Considering the coupling effect of the annual and seismic fortification factors, an empirical seismic vulnerability curve model was constructed in the multiple-intensity regions. A probability matrix model of the mean vulnerability index (MVI) was proposed, and was validated through the above-mentioned reconnaissance sample data. A matrix model of the MVI of the regions (19 provinces in mainland China) based on the parameter (MVI) was established.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• 제8권1호
• /
• pp.291-297
• /
• 2001

For a stochastic regression model in which the errors are assumed to form a stationary linear process, we show that the difference between the empirical distribution functions of the errors and the estimates of those errors converges uniformly in probability to zero at the rate of $o_{p}$ ( $n^{-}$$\frac{1}{2}$) as the sample size n increases.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
• /
• 제30권1호
• /
• pp.11-26
• /
• 2022

One of the most important issues in tunneling, is the squeezing phenomenon. Squeezing can occur during excavation or after the construction of tunnels, which in both cases could lead to significant damages. Therefore, it is important to predict the squeezing and consider it in the early design stage of tunnel construction. Different empirical, semi-empirical and theoretical-analytical methods have been presented to determine the squeezing. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the ability of each of these methods and identify the best method among them. In this study, squeezing in a part of the Alborz service tunnel in Iran was estimated through a number of empirical, semi- empirical and theoretical-analytical methods. Among these methods, the most robust model was used to obtain a database including 300 data for training and 33 data for testing in order to develop a machine learning (ML) method. To this end, three ML models of Gaussian process regression (GPR), artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector regression (SVR) were trained and tested to propose a robust model to predict the squeezing phenomenon. A comparative analysis between the conventional and the ML methods utilized in this study showed that, the GPR model is the most robust model in the prediction of squeezing phenomenon. The sensitivity analysis of the input parameters using the mutual information test (MIT) method showed that, the most sensitive parameter on the squeezing phenomenon is the tangential strain (ε_θ^α) parameter with a sensitivity score of 2.18. Finally, the GPR model was recommended to predict the squeezing phenomenon in tunneling projects. This work's significance is that it can provide a good estimation of the squeezing phenomenon in tunneling projects, based on which geotechnical engineers can take the necessary actions to deal with it in the pre-construction designs.

• 한국도로학회논문집
• /
• 제15권3호
• /
• pp.45-52
• /
• 2013

PURPOSES : This study is to construct the regression models of drainage asphalt concrete specimens and to provide the appropriate coefficients of hydraulic conductivity prediction models. METHODS: In terms of easy calculation of the hydraulic conductivity from porosity of asphalt concrete pavement, the estimation model of hydraulic conductivity was proposed using regression analysis. 10 specimens of drainage asphalt concrete pavement were made for measurement of the hydraulic conductivity. Hydraulic conductivity model proposed in this study was calculated by empirical model based on porosity and the grain size. In this study, it shows the compared results from permeability measured test and empirical equation, and the suitability of proposed model, using regression analysis. RESULTS: As the result of the regression analysis, the hydraulic conductivity calculated from the proposal model was similar to that resulted from permeability measured test. Also result of RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) analysis, a proposed regression model is resulted in more accurate model. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed model can be used in case of estimating the hydraulic conductivity at drainage asphalt concrete pavements in fields.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
• /
• 제25권2호
• /
• pp.205-216
• /
• 1996

The bootstrap calibration method for empirical likelihood is considered to make a confidence region for the regression coefficients. Asymptotic properties are studied regarding the coverage probability. Small sample simulation results reveal that the bootstrap calibration works quite well.

• 환경정책연구
• /
• 제3권2호
• /
• pp.89-112
• /
• 2004

This Study aims to demonstrate how much flood vulnerability in urban area changed for the past 32 years by using the panel model. At the same time, this study strives to determine the primary factors and to construct an effective counter-plan by means of empirical research. After selecting research hypotheses based on considerations of issues concerning causes for urban flooding, their relevance is put to the test by conducting empirical research in individual case locations. This research verifies the four research hypotheses by using one-way error component regression model. In conclusion, this research has shown that urban land use and local characteristics act as significant flood determinants, with forests acting to reduce flood dangers. Moreover, constructing embankments can no longer represent a reliable flood control policy. The changes in future flood control policies need to incorporate local characteristics and to minimize natural destruction, so that humans and nature can coexist through environmentally friendly flood management policies.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
• /
• 제54권4호
• /
• pp.611-622
• /
• 2018

Observed climate data are processed under the assumption that their time series are stationary, as in multi-step temperature and precipitation prediction, which usually leads to low prediction accuracy. If a climate system model is based on a single prediction model, the prediction results contain significant uncertainty. In order to overcome this drawback, this study uses a method that integrates ensemble prediction and a stepwise regression model based on a mean-valued generation function. In addition, it utilizes empirical mode decomposition (EMD), which is a new method of handling time series. First, a non-stationary time series is decomposed into a series of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), which are stationary and multi-scale. Then, a different prediction model is constructed for each component of the IMF using numerical ensemble prediction combined with stepwise regression analysis. Finally, the results are fit to a linear regression model, and a short-term climate prediction system is established using the Visual Studio development platform. The model is validated using temperature data from February 1957 to 2005 from 88 weather stations in Guangxi, China. The results show that compared to single-model prediction methods, the EMD and ensemble prediction model is more effective for forecasting climate change and abrupt climate shifts when using historical data for multi-step prediction.

• 산업기술연구
• /
• 제25권A호
• /
• pp.57-65
• /
• 2005

In this paper, for the highly plastic marine soft clay distributed in west and southern coast of Korean peninsula of Kwangyang and Busan New Port areas, correlation between compression index and other indices representing geotechnical engineering properties such as liquid limit, void ratio and natural water content were analyzed. Appropriate empirical equations of being able to estimate the compressibility of clays in the specific areas were proposed and compared with other existing empirical ones. For analyses of the data and test results, data for marine clays were used from areas of the South Container Port of the Busan New Port, East Breakwater, Passenger Quay, Jungma Reclamation and Reclamation Containment in the 3rd stage in Kwangyang. In order to find the best regression model by using the commercially available software, MS EXCEL 2000, results obtained from the simple linear regression analysis, using the values of liquid limit, initial void ratio and natural water content as independent variables, were compared with the existing empirical equations. Multiple linear regression was also performed to find the best fit regression curves for compression index and other soil properties by combining those independent variables. On the other hands, another software of SPSS for non-linear regression was used to analyze the correlations between compression index and other soil properties.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국철도학회 2001년도 추계학술대회 논문집
• /
• pp.475-480
• /
• 2001

In this study, a empirical equation which can be feasibly used to evaluate minimal track buckling strength without exact numerical analysis is presented. Parameter studies we carried out to investigate the effects of the individual factor on buckling strength. In order to simulate track buckling in the field as precisely as possible, a rigorous buckling model which accounts for all the important parameters is adopted. A empirical equation for prediction of minimal track buckling strength is derived by taking nonlinear regression of data which are obtained from numerical analyses. Its characteristics and applicability are investigated by comparing the results by the presented equation with the one by the equation which was presented in japan, and is frequently using in korea when designing track structure.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
• /
• 제33권2호
• /
• pp.165-173
• /
• 2010

Soil respiration ($R_S$) is a critical component of the annual carbon balance of forests, but few studies thus far have attempted to evaluate empirical regression models in $R_S$. The principal objectives of this study were to evaluate the relationship between $R_S$ rates and soil temperature (ST) and soil water content (SWC) in soil from a cool-temperate deciduous broad-leaved forest, and to evaluate empirical regression models for the prediction of $R_S$ using ST and SWC. We have been measuring $R_S$, using an open-flow gas-exchange system with an infrared gas analyzer during the snowfree season from 1999 to 2001 at the Takayama Forest, Japan. To evaluate the empirical regression models used for the prediction of $R_S$, we compared a simple exponential regression (flux = $ae^{bt}$Eq. [1]) and two polynomial multiple-regression models (flux = $ae^{bt}{\times}({\theta}{\nu}-c){\times}(d-{\theta}{\nu})^f:$ Eq. [2] and flux = $ae^{bt}{\times}(1-(1-({\theta}{\nu}/c))^2)$: Eq. [3]) that included two variables (ST: t and SWC: ${\theta}{\nu}$) and that utilized hourly data for $R_S$. In general, daily mean $R_S$ rates were positively well-correlated with ST, but no significant correlations were observed with any significant frequency between the ST and $R_S$ rates on periods of a day based on the hourly $R_S$ data. Eq. (2) has many more site-specific parameters than Eq. (3) and resulted in some significant underestimation. The empirical regression, Eq. (3) was best explained by temporal variations, as it provided a more unbiased fit to the data compared to Eq. (2). The Eq. (3) (ST $\times$ SWC function) also increased the predictive ability as compared to Eq. (1) (only ST exponential function), increasing the $R^2$ from 0.71 to 0.78.