• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.341-349
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• 2016

This study is intended to set a greenhouse gas emission scenario based on green remodeling pilot project (Annex building of Seoul Customs Office) using LEAP model, a long-term energy plan analysis model, to calculate the energy saving and greenhouse gas emission till year 2035 as well as to analyze the effect of electric power saving cost. Total 4 scenarios were made, Baseline scenario, assuming the past trend is to be maintained in the future, green remodeling scenario, reflecting actual green remodeling project of Seoul Customs Office, behavior improvement and renewable energy supply, and Total scenario. According to the analysis result, the energy demand in 2035 of Baseline scenario was 6.1% decreased from base year 2013, that of green remodeling scenario was 17.5%, that of behavior improvement and renewable energy supply scenario was 21.1% and that of total scenario was 27.3%. The greenhouse emission of base year 2013 was $878.2tCO_2eq$, and it was expected $826.3tCO_2eq$, approx. 5.9% reduced, in 2035 by Baseline scenario. the cumulative greenhouse gas emission saving of the analyzing period were $-26.5tCO_2eq$ by green remodeling scenario, $2.8k\;tCO_2eq$ by behavior improvement and renewable energy supply scenario, and $2.0k\;tCO_2eq$ by total scenario. In addition the effect of electricity saving cost through energy saving has been estimated, and it was approx. 634 million won by green remodeling scenario and appro. 726 million won by behavior improvement and renewable energy supply scenario. So it is analyzed that of behavior improvement and renewable energy supply scenario would be approx. 12.7% higher than that of green remodeling scenario.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.59-72
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• 1999

The purpose of the study is to propose the concrete and realistic alternative measures for $CO_2$ emission reduction on commercial sector. To achieve the purpose, this study adopted AIM/KOREA simulation model modified from AIM(Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) originally developed by Japan National Environmental Research Institute. The results of simulation demonstrate that the $CO_2$ emission from the commercial sector in 1995 was estimated 864 million TC(tons of carbon); however, according to the base scenario, $CO_2$ emission in 2020 is expected to be increased to 1,872 million TC, which is 2.17 times greater than that in 1995. In order to mitigate the ever-increasing $CO_2$ emission, the results of AIM/KOREA simulations under various scenarios showed that the 30-thousand-won carbon tax scenario does not successfully motivate the selection of advanced technology; however, with the 300-thousand-won carbon tax, a substantial amount of $CO_2$ emission reduction by 1.69 million TC from the BaU((Business-as-Usual)scenario is expected to be achieved by year 2020. Such substantial reduction of $CO_2$ emission under the 300-thoudsand-won carbon tax scenario is due to the introduction of advanced technology, such as use of condensing boilers, forced by heavier carbon tax. Under the scenario that presumes the maximum introduction of gas-burning industrial appliances, an 2.66 million TC of $CO_2$ reduction was expected. The results of this study suggest that the $CO_2$ emission reduction measures can be interpreted in many different views. However, if people and industries are fully aware of the economic benefit of energy saving, a certain level of $CO_2$ reduction by a successful introduction of advanced energy saving technology appears to be achieved without carbon tax or subsidies.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.344-352
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• 2007

Quantifying the methane emission from landfills is important to evaluate measures for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. To estimate methane emission for the entire landfills from 1990 through 2004 in Korea, Tier 1 and 2 methodologies were used. In addition, five different scenarios were adopted to identify the effect of important variables on methane emission. The trends of methane emission using Tier 1 were similar to the disposed waste amount. Methane emission using Tier 2 increased as the degradation of waste was gradually proceeded. This result indicates that disposed waste amount and methane generation rate are the important variables for the estimation of methane emission by Tier 1 and 2, respectively. As for the different scenarios, methane emission was highest with scenario I that the entire landfills in Korea were regarded as one landfill. Methane emissions by scenario III and IV considering different $DOC_F$ values with the waste type and different MCF values with the height of waste layer, respectively, were underestimated compared to scenario II. This result indicates that the method of scenario I employed to most previous studies may lead to the overestimation of methane emission. Therefore, more careful consideration of the variables should be needed to develop the methodologies of greenhouse gas emission in landfills along with the characteristics of disposed waste in Korea.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한원격탐사학회 1998년도 Proceedings of International Symposium on Remote Sensing
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• pp.3-8
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• 1998

Using GIS and socio-economical data the relationship between human activities and global environmental change Is Analysed from the view point of food productivity and CO2 emission. Under the assumption that the population problem, the food problem and global warming due to energy consumption can be stabilized through managing land use, impacts of human activities such as consumption of food, energy and timber on global environment changes, and global population capacity are Analysed using developed system dynamics model in the research. In the model the world is divided into two groups: OECD countries and the others. Used global land use data set Is land cover map derived from satellite data, and potential distribution of arable land is estimated by the method of Clamor and Solomon which takes into consideration spatial distribution of climate data such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. In addition, impacts of CO2 emission from human activities on food production through global warming are included in the model as a feedback. The results of the analysis for BaU scenario and Toronto Conference scenario are similar to the results of existing models. From the result of this study, the human habitability in 2020 is 8 billion people, and CO2 emission in 2020 based on BaU Scenario and on Toronto Scenario is 1.7 and 1.2 times more than the 1986's respectively. Improving spatial resolution of the model by using global data to distribute the environmental variables and sauce-economical indices is left for further studies.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제34권5호
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• pp.343-350
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• 2008

Quantifying greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the waste sector is important to evaluating measures for reduction of GHG emissions. To forecast GHG emissions and identify potential emission reduction for GHG emissions, scenarios applied with environmental policy such as waste reduction and structural change of waste treatment were developed. Scenario I estimated GHG emissions under the business as usual (BAU) baseline. Scenario II estimated GHG emissions with the application of the waste reduction policy while scenario III was based on the policy of structural change of waste treatment. Scenario IV was based on both the policies of waste reduction and structural change of waste treatment. As for the different scenarios, GHG emissions were highest under scenarios III, followed by scenarios IV, I, and II. In particular, GHG emissions increased under scenario III due to the increased GHG emissions from the enhanced waste incineration due to the structural change of waste treatment. This result indicated that the waste reduction is the primary policy for GHG reduction from waste. GHG emission from landfill was higher compared to those from incineration. However, the contribution of GHG emission from incineration increased under scenario III and IV. This indicated that more attention should be paid to the waste treatment for incineration to reduce GHG emissions.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.85-93
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• 2016

This study the efficiency of greenhouse gas reduction of 'low carbon car collaboration fund' and its alternative 'control of average fuel efficiency and greenhouse gas', and 'improving driving behavior' were analyzed by using LEAP, long term energy analysis model. Total 4 scenarios were set, baseline scenario, without energy-saving activity, 'low carbon car collaboration fund' scenario, 'fuel efficiency improving scenario', and 'improving driving behavior' scenario. The contents of analysis were forecast of energy demand by scenario and application as well as reduction of greenhouse gas emission volume, and the period taken for analysis was every 1 year during 2015~2030. Baseline scenario, greenhouse gas emission volume in 2015 would be 7,935,697 M/T and 13,081,986 M/T in 2030, increased 64.8%. The analysis result was average annual increase rate of 3.4%. The expected average annual increase rate of other scenarios was, 'low carbon car collaboration fund' scenario 1.7%, 'fuel efficiency improving' scenario 3.0%. and 'improving driving behavior' scenario 3.4%. and these were each 1.7%, 0.3%. 0.3% reduce from baseline scenario. The largest reduction was 'low carbon car collaboration fund' scenario, and there after were 'fuel efficiency improving scenario', and 'improving driving behavior' scenario.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제4권3호
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• pp.211-219
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• 2013

장기에너지 분석모형인 LEAP 모형을 활용하여 S시 가정 부문의 에너지 소비량 및 온실가스 배출 현황과 온실가스 저감대책에 따른 감축잠재량을 분석하였다. 2009년 S시의 에너지 소비량은 가정 상업부문에서 39.1%로 가장 많이 소비하고 있다. 또한, 가구수 증가로 인해 가정 부문의 에너지 및 온실가스 배출량이 증가할 것으로 전망되고 있어, 가정 부문의 온실가스 저감대책 마련이 시급한 상황이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 S시 가정 부문의 에너지 소비량을 파악하고, S시에 적합한 가정 부문 온실가스 저감대책을 수립하였다. 온실가스 감축 잠재량 예측을 위한 시나리오는 기준시나리오, LED 조명 보급, 에너지 대체, 녹색생활 실천, 통합 저감대책 등 총 5개 대책의 효과를 분석하였다. 2020년 기준 저감대책별 온실가스 배출량을 살펴보면, LED 조명 보급은 2020년 온실가스 배출량이 1,181.0천 $tonCO_2eq$로 기준시나리오 대비 약 6.1%의 감축효과가 나타났으며, 에너지 대체는 1,171.6천 $tonCO_2eq$으로 기준시나리오 대비 약 6.8%의 감축효과가 나타났다. 또한, 녹색생활 실천의 2020년 온실가스 배출량은 1,128.7천 $tonCO_2eq$로 기준시나리오 대비 약 10.2%의 온실가스 배출량을 줄일 수 있다는 결과를 도출할 수 있다. LED 조명 보급, 에너지 대체, 녹색생활 실천을 모두 통합한 통합 저감대책은 2020년 966.9천 $tonCO_2eq$로 기준시나리오 대비 약 23.1%의 온실가스 배출량을 줄일 수 있다는 것으로 나타났다.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제63권11호
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• pp.1503-1510
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• 2014

This study organizes scenarios on the power supply plans and electricity load forecasts considering their uncertainties and estimates natural gas quantity for electricity generation, total electricity supply cost and air pollutant emission of each scenario. Also the analysis is performed to check the properness of government's natural gas demand forecast and the possibility of achieving the government's CO2 emission target with the current plan and other scenarios. In result, no scenario satisfies the government's CO2 emission target and the natural gas demand could be doubled to the government's forecast. As under-forecast of natural gas demand has caused the increased natural gas procurement cost, it is required to consider uncertainties of power plant construction plan and electricity demand forecast in forecasting the natural gas demand. In addition, it is found that CO2 emission target could be achieved by enlarging natural gas use and demand-side management without big increase of total costs.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.107-121
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• 2011

To assess the impact of climate change on water quality in an impounded river basin, this study estimated future air temperature and rainfall in the years of 2020, 2050 and 2080 by statistically downscaling the simulation results from two GCM models combined with two emission scenarios (A2 and B1). Both scenarios were selected from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) suggested by IPCC. The A2 scenario represents an extreme condition whereas the B1 scenario represents a clean and energy efficient condition which is similar to that of study basin. With the results of estimated climate factors and land use data, the discharge and the concentrations of BOD, TN and TP in the Andong dam basins were simulated using the SWAT model. The change in BOD concentration for the B1 emission scenario was greater than the A2 scenario in the annual increase range and the pollution level. The concentration of TN was decreased during March? June which is drought period and increased again afterward. In contrast to TN, the concentration of TP was generally decreased. The change in TP concentration was greater for the B1 scenario than the A2 scenario.

• 유기물자원화
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.37-51
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• 2020

2015년 말 채택된 파리협정으로 2023년부터 5년 단위로 국제이행점검(Global stock-taking)이 진행될 예정이며, 국가 온실가스 인벤토리와 온실가스 감축 목표 달성 경과 등을 의무적으로 보고해야 한다. 이에 대비하여 온실가스 배출량 산정의 신뢰도를 향상시키고, 온실가스 배출원별 특성 파악과 배출량 관리가 중요한 시점이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 폐기물 매립 부문을 대상으로 2000 GPG, 2006 IPCC 가이드라인 및 2019 Refinement 산정방법에 따라 온실가스 배출량을 비교·분석하였다. 그 결과, 2016년 기준 시나리오 1에서는 2,287 Gg CO₂_eq, 시나리오 2-1은 1,870 Gg CO₂_eq, 시나리오 2-2는 10,886 Gg CO₂_eq, 시나리오 2-3은 10,629 Gg CO₂_eq, 시나리오 3은 12,468 Gg CO₂_eq으로 나타나 2000 GPG 대비 2006 IPCC 가이드라인 적용 시 온실가스 배출량이 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 배출량 변화의 차이는 산정방식의 변화와 적용되는 배출계수 값에 기인하였으며, 이에 우리나라 특성에 따른 배출계수의 국가고유값 개발이 시급한 것으로 나타났다.