Abstract
The purpose of the study is to propose the concrete and realistic alternative measures for $CO_2$ emission reduction on commercial sector. To achieve the purpose, this study adopted AIM/KOREA simulation model modified from AIM(Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) originally developed by Japan National Environmental Research Institute. The results of simulation demonstrate that the $CO_2$ emission from the commercial sector in 1995 was estimated 864 million TC(tons of carbon); however, according to the base scenario, $CO_2$ emission in 2020 is expected to be increased to 1,872 million TC, which is 2.17 times greater than that in 1995. In order to mitigate the ever-increasing $CO_2$ emission, the results of AIM/KOREA simulations under various scenarios showed that the 30-thousand-won carbon tax scenario does not successfully motivate the selection of advanced technology; however, with the 300-thousand-won carbon tax, a substantial amount of $CO_2$ emission reduction by 1.69 million TC from the BaU((Business-as-Usual)scenario is expected to be achieved by year 2020. Such substantial reduction of $CO_2$ emission under the 300-thoudsand-won carbon tax scenario is due to the introduction of advanced technology, such as use of condensing boilers, forced by heavier carbon tax. Under the scenario that presumes the maximum introduction of gas-burning industrial appliances, an 2.66 million TC of $CO_2$ reduction was expected. The results of this study suggest that the $CO_2$ emission reduction measures can be interpreted in many different views. However, if people and industries are fully aware of the economic benefit of energy saving, a certain level of $CO_2$ reduction by a successful introduction of advanced energy saving technology appears to be achieved without carbon tax or subsidies.