• Proceedings of the Korean Association for Survey Research Conference
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• 2000.06a
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• pp.15-34
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• 2000

Since the results of the election forecasting survey that was executed jointly by T.V. stations and survey research companies in the 16th Korea General Election(April 13, 2000) had many errors, the reliability of the election forecasting survey was greatly damaged. Therefore, in order to recover the reliability and to increase the accuracy of the election forecasting survey I the future, we figure out the sources of the survey\\`s errors and suggest methods of reducing them through deeply analyzing the forecasting data from many angles. In addition, we discuss some problems and an improvable direction on exit poll executed for the first time.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.59 no.6
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• pp.1041-1045
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• 2010

Short-term electric load forecasting of power systems is essential for the power system stability and the efficient power system operation. An accurate load forecasting scheme improves the power system security and saves some economic losses in power system operations. Due to scarcity of the historical same type of holiday load data, most big electric load forecasting errors occur on load forecasting for the holidays. The fuzzy linear regression model has showed good accuracy for the load forecasting of the holidays. However, it is not good enough to forecast the load of the election day. The concept of the load variation rate for the load forecasting of the election day is introduced. The proposed algorithm shows its good accuracy in that the average percentage error for the short-term 24 hourly loads forecasting of the election days is 2.27%. The accuracy of the proposed 24 hourly loads forecasting of the election days is compared with the fuzzy linear regression method. The proposed method gives much better forecasting accuracy with overall average error of 2.27%, which improved about average error of 2% as compared to the fuzzy linear regression method.

• Survey Research
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.15-34
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• 2000

Since the results of the election forcasting survey that was executed jointly by T.V. stations and survey research companies in the 16th Korea General Election(April 13, 2000) had many errors, the reliability of the election forecating survey was greatly damaged. Therefore, in order to recover the reliability and to increase the accuracy of the election forecasting survey in the future, we figure out the sources of the survey's errors and suggest methods of reducing them through deeply analyzing the forecasting data from many angles. In addition, we discuss some problems and an improvable direction on exit poll executed for the first time.

• Proceedings of the Korean Association for Survey Research Conference
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• 2001.04a
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• pp.1.2-35
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• 2001

On the election day of the 16th Korea national Assembly, nationwide TV stations such as KBS, SBS and MBC broadcasted election forecasting based on telephone surveys and exit polls. The result turned out to be significantly wrong, undermining general audience's confidence on the 'ientific'surveys. The purpose of this study consists of the followings. I) What form of telephone surveys and exit polls were adopted by survey institutions in real field\ulcorner ii) What were the problems\ulcorner iii) What can we do to make it straight\ulcorner Major findings of the study include the ignorance of call-back rules in telephone survey and the inadequate number of sampled election posts to make satisfactory forecasting. It is pointed out that it is necessary to amend election laws related to election opinion polls to make a substantial progress.

• Survey Research
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.1-35
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• 2001

On the election day of the 16th Korea National Assembly. nationwide TV stations such as KBS. SBS and MBC broadcasted election forecasting based on telephone surveys and exit polls. The result turned out to be significantly wrong. undermining general audience's confidence on the “scientific” surveys. The purpose of this study consists of the followings. i) What form of telephone surveys and exit polls were adopted by survey institutions in real field\ulcorner ii) What were the problems\ulcorner iii) What can we do to make it straight\ulcorner Major findings of the study include the ignorance of call-back rules in telephone survey and the inadequate number of sampled election posts to make satisfactory forecasting. It is pointed out that it is necessary to amend election laws related to election opinion polls to make a substantial progress.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.499-509
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• 2020

We compared and analyzed the relationship between vote intention, vote expectation, and party approval rate using the 19th Presidential Election and the 7th Nationwide Simultaneous Local Election (Regional Local Government Election) poll data. The case study provides an alternative method of predicting the winner using vote expectation and a party approval rate that can improve the accuracy of election forecasting.

• Survey Research
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.57-72
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• 2009

In Korea, telephone surveys have been used in election forecasting since 1992. In some elections, predictions were excellent, but in some elections, the predictions based on telephone surveys were not good. So, exit polls have been used along with the telephone surveys in predicting election outcomes since 2001 by the major broadcasting networks. Though telephone surveys, in general, have been less accurate than exit polls in election forecasting from 2000 to 2003, they were more accurate in the 2004 General Election than the exit polls. All predictions on the winners by the telephone surveys turned out to be accurate. But such success has not persisted. In the 2008 General Election, the telephone surveys was less accurate than the exit polls and actually its accuracy fell clown to the level of the 2000 General Election. This paper tried to find out. the factors responsible for the fluctuation of the accuracy of telephone polls.

• Survey Research
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.31-48
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• 2003

We consider a history of exit poll which is generally used in the election forecasting survey. And we discuss some problems and improving items based on the results of executed in Korea. In addition, we consider the errors due to the insufficient preparation for exit poll and methods to reduce these errors. From this study, we expect the election forecasting will be more accurate.

• Survey Research
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.87-102
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• 2003

Till now, much progress has been made in election forecasting. But fixed-line telephone survey has limitations, because it has become more and more difficult to get a representative sample, Exit poll has been considered to provide a new solution. From the beginning, exit poll provided more accurate predictions than those based on surveys using fixed-line phone. In 2002 presidential election, prediction based on exit poll was perfect. Its predictive error was zero. This paper describes how the exit poll was done in 2002 presidential elections. Specifically, we are to show the estimating procedures as well as sampling and polling process. Among many factors, sampling procedure has been fond to be the most important factor in exit poll accuracy.

• Survey Research
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.31-63
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• 2011

This study is to make an effective forecasting model for turn-out rates of the candidates with their visibilities, which are measured in their names on the media during the election period. I make a regressive model, with the data of 2010 gubernatorial election in Korea, where turn-out rate is dependent variable and each candidate's visibility, incumbency effect, local control party effect, corruption effect, strategy voting effect, restrain effect as a mid-term evaluation, and policy effect are independent variables. I got the model, T = -4.65 + 1.02V + 16.90 I + 16.78L - 9.12 R, where T is turn-out rate, V is candidate's visibility, I is incumbent effect, L is local control party effect, and R is restrain effect. This function can be used to predict turn-out rates of the candidates in the forthcoming gubernatorial election in Korea at a small outlay.