• Title/Summary/Keyword: efficient estimation

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A Framework Development for Sketched Data-Driven Building Information Model Creation to Support Efficient Space Configuration and Building Performance Analysis (효율적 공간 형상화 및 건물성능분석을 위한 스케치 정보 기반 BIM 모델 자동생성 프레임워크 개발)

  • Kong, ByungChan;Jeong, WoonSeong
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.50-61
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    • 2024
  • The market for compact houses is growing due to the demand for floor plans prioritizing user needs. However, clients often have difficulty communicating their spatial requirements to professionals including architects because they lack the means to provide evidence, such as spatial configurations or cost estimates. This research aims to create a framework that can translate sketched data-driven spatial requirements into 3D building components in BIM models to facilitate spatial understanding and provide building performance analysis to aid in budgeting in the early design phase. The research process includes developing a process model, implementing, and validating the framework. The process model describes the data flow within the framework and identifies the required functionality. Implementation involves creating systems and user interfaces to integrate various systems. The validation verifies that the framework can automatically convert sketched space requirements into walls, floors, and roofs in a BIM model. The framework can also automatically calculate material and energy costs based on the BIM model. The developed frame enables clients to efficiently create 3D building components based on the sketched data and facilitates users to understand the space and analyze the building performance through the created BIM models.

A Study on Risk Parity Asset Allocation Model with XGBoos (XGBoost를 활용한 리스크패리티 자산배분 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Younghoon;Choi, HeungSik;Kim, SunWoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2020
  • Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.

A Study on the Estimation Measure of Delay Cost on Work Zone Using the Traffic Flow Model (교통류 모형을 이용한 도로 점용공사 구간의 지체비용 산정방안)

  • Kim, Yunsik;Lee, Minjae
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.120-129
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    • 2016
  • The user cost is an important analysis item which should be considered together with life-cycle of facility, administrator cost and discount rate in LCCA for efficient asset management of SOC facilities. Especially, a significant delay cost occurs often for users in the road field due to a work zone for cleaning and maintenance, and in such case, the administrator should consider the administrator cost as well as the user cost for more rational decision making. However, the user cost has not been considered in most decision making steps until recently and relevant studies also have not been carried out actively. In this study, the methodology to estimate the user cost and delay cost required in the decision making step using the traffic flow model and the direct benefit estimation model in the traffic facility investment evaluation guideline is suggested. And, the traffic flow model was estimated on 4 national highway sections where maintenance was actually carried out in 2014 using VISSIM and, the user cost and the delay cost were estimated based on the suggested methodology. The analysis result showed that the average user cost of $17,569,000KRW/km{\times}day$ occurred on Section A with approximately 30,000 AADT before a work zone occurred, and in case the first lane was blocked for maintenance, the delay cost of $10,193,000KRW/km{\times}day$ (158%) on average occurred additionally. The delay cost of $1,507,000KRW/km{\times}day$ (115%) and $1,985,000KRW/km{\times}day$ (119%) occurred on Sections B and D with approximately 20,000 AADT respectively and the delay cost of $262,000KRW/km{\times}day$ (105%) occurred on Section C with approximately 10,000 AADT. This result of this study was estimated based on the simulation of traffic flow model so that there is a limitation in its actual application. A study ot develop a highly appropriate model using actual observation data and improve the possibility to apply it through the verification using the simulation will be necessary in future.

Study on the Concentration Estimation Equation of Nitrogen Dioxide using Hyperspectral Sensor (초분광센서를 활용한 이산화질소 농도 추정식에 관한 연구)

  • Jeon, Eui-Ik;Park, Jin-Woo;Lim, Seong-Ha;Kim, Dong-Woo;Yu, Jae-Jin;Son, Seung-Woo;Jeon, Hyung-Jin;Yoon, Jeong-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.19-25
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    • 2019
  • The CleanSYS(Clean SYStem) is operated to monitor air pollutants emitted from specific industrial complexes in Korea. So the industrial complexes without the system are directly monitored by the control officers. For efficient monitoring, studies using various sensors have been conducted to monitor air pollutants emitted from industrial complex. In this study, hyperspectral sensors were used to model and verify the equations for estimating the concentration of $NO_2$(nitrogen dioxide) in air pollutants emitted. For development of the equations, spectral radiance were observed for $NO_2$ at various concentrations with different SZA(Solar Zenith Angle), VZA(Viewing Zenith Angle), and RAA(Relative Azimuth Angle). From the observed spectral radiance, the calculated value of the difference between the values of the specific wavelengths was taken as an absorption depth, and the equations were developed using the relationship between the depth and the $NO_2$ concentration. The spectral radiance mixed gas of $NO_2$ and $SO_2$(sulfur dioxide) was used to verify the equations. As a result, the $R^2$(coefficient of determination) and RMSE(Root Mean Square Error) were different from 0.71~0.88 and 72~23 ppm according to the form of the equation, and $R^2$ of the exponential form was the highest among the equations. Depending on the type of the equations, the accuracy of the estimated concentration with varying concentrations is not constant. However, if the equations are advanced in the future, hyperspectral sensors can be used to monitor the $NO_2$ emitted from the industrial complex.

Estimation of the CY Area Required for Each Container Handling System in Mokpo New Port (목표 신항만의 터미널 운영시스템에 따른 CY 소요면적 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Keum, J.S.
    • Journal of Korean Port Research
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.35-46
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    • 1998
  • The CY can be said to function in various respect as a buffer zone between the maritime and overland inflow-outflow of container. The amount of storage area needed requires a very critical appraisal at pre-operational stage. A container terminal should be designed to handle and store containers in the most efficient and economic way possible. In order to achieve this aim it is necessary to figure out or forecast numbers and types of containers to be handled, CY area required, and internal handling systems to be adopted. This paper aims to calculate the CY area required for each container handling system in Mokpo New Port. The CY area required are directly dependent on the equipment being used and the storage demand. And also the CY area required depends on the dwell time. Furthermore, containers need to be segregated by destination, weight, class, FCL(full container load), LCL(less than container load), direction of travel, and sometimes by type and often by shipping line or service. Thus the full use of a storage area is not always possible as major unbalances and fluctuations in these flow occuring all the time. The calculating CY area must therefore be taken into account in terms of these operational factors. For solving such problem, all these factors have been applied to estimation of CY area in Mokpo New Port. The CY area required in Mokpo New Port was summarized in the conclusion section.

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Study on the Estimation of Genetic Parameters and Selection Efficiency on Early Part-record for Improving Egg Production in Layer (산난계의 유전적 모수 추정과 조기선발효율에 관한 연구)

  • 이득환;오봉국
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.211-218
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    • 1988
  • Data on egg number from time of first lay to 71 week of age were obtained from samples of single comb white leghorn breeder and brown layer breeder populations which were raised at manny breeding Co. These data were used to estimate the heritabilities of age at sexual maturity, early egg number, residual egg number and annual egg number. Also, the genetic correlation coefficients between these traits were estimated and selection efficiencies of each segment in early part record were estimated by use of the heritabilities and generic correlations. The estimated heritabilities and standard errors in two lines(W and B) were $0.30\pm0.07$ and $0.33\pm0.08$ at early records, $0.19\pm0.06$ and $0.18\pm$0.05 at residual records and $0.37\pm0.09$ and $0.49\pm0.10$ at time of first lay. Those at annual records were $0.24\pm0.06$ equally. The estimated correlation coefficients and standard errors between early record and annual record were $0.76\pm0.08$ and $0.77\pm0.07$. Those between early record and residual record were $0.46\pm0.15$ and $0.39\pm0.16$ respectively. At improving annual egg production per year, selection based on early part record(SM to 40 week of age) would be 69% more efficient than on annual record in line W and 80% more efficient than on annual record in line B. But, if it were considered that egg weight decreased due to sexual maturity and cost for data collection, use of selected segment from 35~40week of age in line W and from 31~40 week of age in line B would be desired in spite of a. small loss in relative selection efficiency. The generation interval would not be shortened.

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An Efficient Estimation of Place Brand Image Power Based on Text Mining Technology (텍스트마이닝 기반의 효율적인 장소 브랜드 이미지 강도 측정 방법)

  • Choi, Sukjae;Jeon, Jongshik;Subrata, Biswas;Kwon, Ohbyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.113-129
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    • 2015
  • Location branding is a very important income making activity, by giving special meanings to a specific location while producing identity and communal value which are based around the understanding of a place's location branding concept methodology. Many other areas, such as marketing, architecture, and city construction, exert an influence creating an impressive brand image. A place brand which shows great recognition to both native people of S. Korea and foreigners creates significant economic effects. There has been research on creating a strategically and detailed place brand image, and the representative research has been carried out by Anholt who surveyed two million people from 50 different countries. However, the investigation, including survey research, required a great deal of effort from the workforce and required significant expense. As a result, there is a need to make more affordable, objective and effective research methods. The purpose of this paper is to find a way to measure the intensity of the image of the brand objective and at a low cost through text mining purposes. The proposed method extracts the keyword and the factors constructing the location brand image from the related web documents. In this way, we can measure the brand image intensity of the specific location. The performance of the proposed methodology was verified through comparison with Anholt's 50 city image consistency index ranking around the world. Four methods are applied to the test. First, RNADOM method artificially ranks the cities included in the experiment. HUMAN method firstly makes a questionnaire and selects 9 volunteers who are well acquainted with brand management and at the same time cities to evaluate. Then they are requested to rank the cities and compared with the Anholt's evaluation results. TM method applies the proposed method to evaluate the cities with all evaluation criteria. TM-LEARN, which is the extended method of TM, selects significant evaluation items from the items in every criterion. Then the method evaluates the cities with all selected evaluation criteria. RMSE is used to as a metric to compare the evaluation results. Experimental results suggested by this paper's methodology are as follows: Firstly, compared to the evaluation method that targets ordinary people, this method appeared to be more accurate. Secondly, compared to the traditional survey method, the time and the cost are much less because in this research we used automated means. Thirdly, this proposed methodology is very timely because it can be evaluated from time to time. Fourthly, compared to Anholt's method which evaluated only for an already specified city, this proposed methodology is applicable to any location. Finally, this proposed methodology has a relatively high objectivity because our research was conducted based on open source data. As a result, our city image evaluation text mining approach has found validity in terms of accuracy, cost-effectiveness, timeliness, scalability, and reliability. The proposed method provides managers with clear guidelines regarding brand management in public and private sectors. As public sectors such as local officers, the proposed method could be used to formulate strategies and enhance the image of their places in an efficient manner. Rather than conducting heavy questionnaires, the local officers could monitor the current place image very shortly a priori, than may make decisions to go over the formal place image test only if the evaluation results from the proposed method are not ordinary no matter what the results indicate opportunity or threat to the place. Moreover, with co-using the morphological analysis, extracting meaningful facets of place brand from text, sentiment analysis and more with the proposed method, marketing strategy planners or civil engineering professionals may obtain deeper and more abundant insights for better place rand images. In the future, a prototype system will be implemented to show the feasibility of the idea proposed in this paper.

A Study on Estimating Optimal Tonnage of Coastal Cargo Vessels in Korea (우리나라 연안화물선의 적정선복량 추정에 관한 연구)

  • 이청환;이철영
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.21-53
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    • 1989
  • In the past twenty years, there has been a rapid increase in the volume of traffic in Korea due to the Korean great growth of the Korean economy. Since transformation provides an infrastructure vital to economic growth, it becomes more and more an integral part of the Korea economy. The importance of coastal shipping stands out in particular, not only because of the expansion limit on the road network, but also because of saturation in the capacity of rail transportation. In spite of this increase and its importance, coastal shipping is falling behind partly because it is givenless emphasis than ocean-going shipping and other inland transportation systems and partly because of overcompetition due to excessive ship tonnage. Therefore, estimating and planning optimum ship tonnage is the first take to develop Korean coastal shipping. This paper aims to estimate the optimum coastal ship tonnage by computer simulation and finally to draw up plans for the ship tonnage balance according to supply and demand. The estimation of the optimum ship tonnage is peformed by the method of Origin -Destimation and time series analysis. The result are as follows : (1) The optimum ship tonnage in 1987 was 358, 680 DWT, which is 54% of the current ship tonnage (481 ships, 662, 664DWT) that is equal to the optimum ship tonnage in 1998. this overcapacity result is in excessive competition and financial difficulties in Korea coastal shipping. (2) The excessive ship tonnage can be broken down into ship types as follows : oil carrier 250, 926 DWT(350%), cement carrier 9, 977 DWT(119%), iron material/machinery carrier 25, 665 DWT(117%), general cargo carrier 17, 416DWT(112%). (3) the current total ship crew of 5, 079 is more than the verified optimally efficient figure of 3, 808 by 1271. (4) From the viewpoint of management strategy, it is necessary that excessive ship tonnage be reduced and uneconomic outdated vessels be broken up. And its found that the diversion into economically efficient fleets is urgently required in order to meet increasing annual rate in the amounts of cargo(23, 877DWT). (5) The plans for the ship tonnage balance according to supply and demand are as follows 1) The establishment of a legislative system for the arrangement of ship tonnage. This would involve; (a) The announcement of an optimum tonnage which guides the licensing of cargo vessels and ship tonnage supply. (b) The establishment of an organization that substantially arrangement tonnage in Korea coastal shipping. 2) The announcement of an optimum ship tonnage both per year and short-term that guides current tonnage supply plans. 3) The settlement of elastic tariffs resulting in the protect6ion of coastal shipping's share from other tonnage supply plans. 4) The settlement of elastic tariffs resulting in the protection of coastal shipping's share from other transportation systems. 4) Restriction of ocean-going vessels from participating in coastal shipping routes. 5) Business rationalization of coastal shipping company which reduces uneconomic outdated vessels and boosts the national economy. If we are to achieve these ends, the followings are prerequisites; I) Because many non-licensed vessels are actually operating and threatening the safe voyage of the others in Korea coastal routes, it is necessary that those ind of vessels be controlled and punished by the authorities. II) The supply of ship tonnage in Korean coastal routes should be predently monitored because most of the coastal vessels are to small to be diverted into ocean-going routes in case of excessive supply. III) Every ship type which is engaged in coastal shipping should be specialized according to the characteristics of its routes as soon possible.

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Stock Assessment and Management Implications of the Korean aucha perch (Coreoperca herzi) in Freshwater: (2) Estimation of Potential Yield Assessment and Stock of Coreoperca herzi in the Mid-Upper System of the Seomjin River (담수산 어류 꺽지 (Coreoperca herzi)의 자원 평가 및 관리 방안 연구: 섬진강 중.상류 수계에서 꺽지의 자원량 및 잠재생산량 추정 (2))

  • Jang, Sung-Hyun;Ryu, Hui-Seong;Lee, Jung-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.172-177
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    • 2011
  • The study sought to determine the efficient management of Korean aucha perch by estimating the potential yield (PY), which means the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) based on the optimal stock, in the mid-upper region of the Seomjin River watershed from August 2008 to April 2009. The stock assessment was conducted by the swept area method and PY was estimated by a modified fisheries management system based on the allowable biological catch. Also, the yield-per-recruit analysis (Beverton and Holt, 1957) was used to review the efficient management of resource, Coreoperca herzi. The age at first capture ($t_c$) was 1.464 age and converted body length was 7.8 cm. Concerning current fishing intensities, the instantaneous coefficient of fishing mortality (F) was estimated to be 0.061 $year^{-1}$; yield-per-recruit analysis estimated the current yield per recruit as 4.124 g with F and $t_c$. The fishing mortality of Allowable Biological Catch ($F_{ABC}$) based on the current $t_c$ and F was estimated to be 0.401 $year^{-1}$, therefore, the optimum fishing intensities could be achieved at the higher fishing intensity for Coreoperca herzi. The calculated annual stock of Coreoperca herzi was 3,048 kg, the potential yield was estimated to be 861 kg with $t_c$ and $F_{ABC}$ at the fixed current level. Using yield-per-recruit analysis, if F and $t_c$ were set at 0.643 $year^{-1}$ and 3 age, respectively, the yield per recruit would be predicted to increase 3.4-fold, from 4.12 g to 13.84 g.

The Effect of Non-genetic Factors on Birth Weight and Weaning Weight in Three Sheep Breeds of Zimbabwe

  • Assan, N.;Makuza, S.M.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.151-157
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    • 2005
  • Sheep production is affected by genetic and non-genetic factors. A knowledge of these factors is essential for efficient management and for the accurate estimation of breeding values. The objective of this study was to establish the non-genetic factors which affect birth weight and weaning weight in Dorper, Mutton Merino and indigenous Sabi sheep breeds. A total of 2,625 birth and weaning weight records from Grasslands Research Station collected from 1991 through 1993, were used. The records were collected from indigenous Sabi (939), Dorper (807) and Mutton Merino (898) sheep. A mixed classification model containing the fixed effects of year, birth status and sex was used for identification of non-genetic factors. Sire within breed was included as a random effect. Two factor interactions and three factor interactions were important in indigenous Sabi, Mutton Merino and Dorper sheep. The mean birth weights were 4.37${\pm}$0.04 kg, 4.62${\pm}$0.04 kg and 3.29${\pm}$0.04 kg for Mutton Merino, Dorper and Sabi sheep, respectively. Sire had significant effects (p<0.05) on birth weight in Mutton Merino and indigenous Sabi sheep. Year of lambing had significant effects (p<0.05) on birth weight in indigenous Sabi, Mutton Merino and Dorper sheep. The effect of birth status was non significant in Dorper and Mutton Merino sheep while effect of birth status was significant on birth weight in indigenous Sabi sheep. In Indigenous Sabi sheep lambs born as singles (3.30${\pm}$0.05 kg) were 0.23 kg heavier than twins (3.07${\pm}$0.05 kg), in Mutton Merino lambs born as singles (3.99${\pm}$0.08 kg) were 0.07 kg heavier than twins (3.92${\pm}$0.08 kg) and in Dorper lambs born as singles (4.41${\pm}$0.04 kg) were 0.02 kg heavier than twins (4.39${\pm}$0.04 kg). On average males were heavier than females (p<0.05) weighing (3.32${\pm}$0.04 kg vs. 3.05${\pm}$0.07 kg) in indigenous Sabi, 4.73${\pm}$0.03 kg vs. 4.08${\pm}$0.05 in Dorper and 4.26${\pm}$0.07 kg vs. 3.66${\pm}$0.09 kg in Mutton Merino sheep. Two way factor interactions of sire*year, year*sex and sex*birth status had significant effects (p<0.05) on birth weight in indigenous Sabi, Mutton Merino and Dorper sheep while the effect of year*birth status was non significant on birth weight in Indigenous Sabi sheep. The three way factor interaction of year*sex*birth status had a significant effect (p<0.01) on birth weight in indigenous Sabi and Mutton Merino. Tupping weight fitted as a covariate had significant effects (p<0.001) on birth weight in indigenous Sabi, Mutton Merino and Dorper sheep. The mean weaning weights were 17.94${\pm}$0.31 kg, 18.19${\pm}$0.28 kg and 14.39${\pm}$0.28 kg for Mutton Merino, Dorper and Indigenous Sabi sheep, respectively. Effects of sire and sire*year were non significant on weaning weight in Dorper and Mutton Merino while year, sex and sex*year interaction had significant effects (p<0.001) on weaning weight. On average males were heavier than females (p<0.001) at weaning. The respective weaning weights were 18.05${\pm}$0.46 kg, 18.68${\pm}$0.19 kg, 14.14${\pm}$0.15 kg for males and 16.64${\pm}$0.60 kg, 16.41${\pm}$0.31 kg, 12.64${\pm}$0.32 kg for females in Mutton Merino, Dorper and Indigenous Sabi sheep. Lambs born as singles were significantly heavier at weaning than twins, 0.05 kg, 0.06 kg and 0.78 kg for Mutton Merino, Dorper and Indigenous Sabi sheep, respectively. Effect of tupping weight was highly significant on weaning weight. The three way factor interaction year*sex*birth status had a significant effect (p<0.01) on weaning weight. Correction for environmental effects is necessary to increase accuracy of direct selection for birth weight and weaning weight.