• Title/Summary/Keyword: earthquake risk assessment

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Operational modal analysis of a long-span suspension bridge under different earthquake events

  • Ni, Yi-Qing;Zhang, Feng-Liang;Xia, Yun-Xia;Au, Siu-Kui
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.859-887
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    • 2015
  • Structural health monitoring (SHM) has gained in popularity in recent years since it can assess the performance and condition of instrumented structures in real time and provide valuable information to the asset's manager and owner. Operational modal analysis plays an important role in SHM and it involves the determination of natural frequencies, damping ratios and mode shapes of a constructed structure based on measured dynamic data. This paper presents the operational modal analysis and seismic response characterization of the Tsing Ma Suspension Bridge of 2,160 m long subjected to different earthquake events. Three kinds of events, i.e., short-distance, middle-distance and long-distance earthquakes are taken into account. A fast Bayesian modal identification method is used to carry out the operational modal analysis. The modal properties of the bridge are identified and compared by use of the field monitoring data acquired before and after the earthquake for each type of the events. Research emphasis is given on identifying the predominant modes of the seismic responses in the deck during short-distance, middle-distance and long-distance earthquakes, respectively, and characterizing the response pattern of various structural portions (deck, towers, main cables, etc.) under different types of earthquakes. Since the bridge is over 2,000 m long, the seismic wave would arrive at the tower/anchorage basements of the two side spans at different time instants. The behaviors of structural dynamic responses on the Tsing Yi side span and on the Ma Wan side span under each type of the earthquake events are compared. The results obtained from this study would be beneficial to the seismic design of future long-span bridges to be built around Hong Kong (e.g., the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge).

Accelerated Monte Carlo analysis of flow-based system reliability through artificial neural network-based surrogate models

  • Yoon, Sungsik;Lee, Young-Joo;Jung, Hyung-Jo
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.175-184
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    • 2020
  • Conventional Monte Carlo simulation-based methods for seismic risk assessment of water networks often require excessive computational time costs due to the hydraulic analysis. In this study, an Artificial Neural Network-based surrogate model was proposed to efficiently evaluate the flow-based system reliability of water distribution networks. The surrogate model was constructed with appropriate training parameters through trial-and-error procedures. Furthermore, a deep neural network with hidden layers and neurons was composed for the high-dimensional network. For network training, the input of the neural network was defined as the damage states of the k-dimensional network facilities, and the output was defined as the network system performance. To generate training data, random sampling was performed between earthquake magnitudes of 5.0 and 7.5, and hydraulic analyses were conducted to evaluate network performance. For a hydraulic simulation, EPANET-based MATLAB code was developed, and a pressure-driven analysis approach was adopted to represent an unsteady-state network. To demonstrate the constructed surrogate model, the actual water distribution network of A-city, South Korea, was adopted, and the network map was reconstructed from the geographic information system data. The surrogate model was able to predict network performance within a 3% relative error at trained epicenters in drastically reduced time. In addition, the accuracy of the surrogate model was estimated to within 3% relative error (5% for network performance lower than 0.2) at different epicenters to verify the robustness of the epicenter location. Therefore, it is concluded that ANN-based surrogate model can be utilized as an alternative model for efficient seismic risk assessment to within 5% of relative error.

A Basic Study on Relative Liquefaction Failure Risk Assessment of Domestic Small to Medium-Sized Earthfill Dams (국내 중소규모 흙댐의 상대적 액상화 파괴위험도 평가 기초 연구)

  • Park, Tae Hoon;Ha, Ik-soo
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.147-155
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to present a method to evaluate the relative risk of failure due to liquefaction of domestic small to medium-sized earthfill dams with a height of less than 15 m, which has little information on geotechnical properties. Based on the results of previous researches, a series of methods and procedures for estimating the probability of dam failure due to liquefaction, which calculates the probability of liquefaction occurrence of the dam body, the amount of settlement at the dam crest according to the estimation of the residual strength of the dam after liquefaction, the overtopping depth determined from the amount of settlement at the dam crest, and the probability of failure of the dam due to overtopping was explicitly presented. To this end, representative properties essential for estimating the probability of failure due to the liquefaction of small to medium-sized earthfill dams were presented. Since it is almost impossible to directly determine these representative properties for each of the target dams because it is almost impossible to obtain geotechnical property information, they were estimated and determined from the results of field and laboratory tests conducted on existing small to medium-sized earthfill dams in previous researches. The method and procedure presented in this study were applied to 12 earthfill dams on a trial basis, and the liquefaction failure probability was calculated. The analysis of the calculation results confirmed that the representative properties were reasonable and that the overall evaluation procedure and method were effective.

Residual capacity assessment of in-service concrete box-girder bridges considering traffic growth and structural deterioration

  • Yuanyuan Liu;Junyong Zhou;Jianxu Su;Junping Zhang
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.85 no.4
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    • pp.531-543
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    • 2023
  • The existing concrete bridges are time-varying working systems, where the maintenance strategy should be planned according to the time-varying performance of the bridge. This work proposes a time-dependent residual capacity assessment procedure, which considers the non-stationary bridge load effects under growing traffic and non-stationary structural deterioration owing to material degradations. Lifetime bridge load effects under traffic growth are predicated by the non-stationary peaks-over-threshold (POT) method using time-dependent generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) models. The non-stationary structural resistance owing to material degradation is modeled by incorporating the Gamma deterioration process and field inspection data. A three-span continuous box-girder bridge is illustrated as an example to demonstrate the application of the proposed procedure, and the time-varying reliability indexes of the bridge girder are calculated. The accuracy of the proposed non-stationary POT method is verified through numerical examples, where the shape parameter of the time-varying GPD model is constant but the threshold and scale parameters are polynomial functions increasing with time. The case study illustrates that the residual flexural capacities show a degradation trend from a slow decrease to an accelerated decrease under traffic growth and material degradation. The reliability index for the mid-span cross-section reduces from 4.91 to 4.55 after being in service for 100 years, and the value is from 4.96 to 4.75 for the mid-support cross-section. The studied bridge shows no safety risk under traffic growth and structural deterioration owing to its high design safety reserve. However, applying the proposed numerical approach to analyze the degradation of residual bearing capacity for bridge structures with low safety reserves is of great significance for management and maintenance.

Residual Seismic Capacity Evaluation of RC Frames with URM Infill Wall Based on Residual Crack Width and Damage Class (잔류균열폭 및 손상도에 기초한 무보강 조적벽체를 갖는 RC 골조의 잔존내진성능 평가)

  • Choi, Ho
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 2009
  • Following an earthquake, the major concerns for damaged buildings are their safety/risk in the event of aftershocks, and thus a quantitative damage assessment must be performed in order to evaluate their residual seismic capacity and to identify necessary actions for the damaged buildings. Post-event damage evaluation is therefore as essential for the quick recovery of a damaged community as pre-event seismic evaluation and strengthening of vulnerable buildings. The objective of this study is to develop a post-earthquake seismic evaluation method for RC frames with URM infill wall for typical school buildings. For this purpose, full-scale, one-bay, single-story specimens having different axial loads in columns are tested under cyclic loadings. During the tests, residual crack widths, which can also be found in damaged buildings, are measured in order to estimate the residual seismic capacity from the observed damage. In this paper, the relationship between the measured residual crack width and the residual seismic capacity is discussed analytically and experimentally, and reduction factors are proposed to estimate the residual seismic capacity based on the observed damage level.

A Study on the Risk Analysis of the RC Structure Subjected to Seismic Loading (철근콘크리트 구조물의 지진 위험성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • 이성로
    • Magazine of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.6 no.5
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    • pp.183-192
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    • 1994
  • Seismic safety of RC structure can be evaluated by numerical analysis considering randomness of earthquake motion and hysteretic behavior of reinforced concrete, which is more rational than determirustic analysis. In the safety assessment of aseismatic structures by the deterministic theory, it is not easy to consider th effects of random variables but the reliability theory and random vibration theory are useful to assess seismic safety with considering random effects. This study aims at the evaluation of sesmic damage and risk of the RC frame structure by stochastic response analysis of hysteretic system and then the calculation stages of the prob ability of failure are presented.

Probabilistic estimation of seismic economic losses of portal-like precast industrial buildings

  • Demartino, Cristoforo;Vanzi, Ivo;Monti, Giorgio
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.323-335
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    • 2017
  • A simplified framework for the probabilistic estimation of economic losses induced by the structural vulnerability in single-story and single-bay precast industrial buildings is presented. The simplifications introduced in the framework are oriented to the definition of an expeditious procedure adoptable by government agencies and insurance companies for preliminary risk assessment. The economic losses are evaluated considering seismic hazard, structural response, damage resulting from the structural vulnerability and only structural-vulnerability-induced e]conomic losses, i.e., structural repair or reconstruction costs (stock and flow costs) and content losses induced by structural collapse. The uncertainties associated with each step are accounted for via Monte Carlo simulations. The estimation results in a probabilistic description of the seismic risk of portal-like industrial buildings, expressed in terms of economic losses for each occurrence (i.e., seismic event) that owners (i.e., insured) and stakeholders can use to make risk management decisions. The outcome may also be useful for the definition of the insurance premiums and the evaluation of the risks and costs for the owner corresponding to the insurance industrial costs. A prototype of a precast concrete industrial building located in Mirandola, Italy, hit by the 2012 Emilia earthquake, is used as an example of the application of the procedure.

Nonlinear semi-active/passive retrofit design evaluation using incremental dynamic analysis

  • Rodgers, Geoffrey W.;Chase, J. Geoffrey;Roland, Thomas;Macrae, Gregory A.;Zhou, Cong
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.109-120
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    • 2022
  • Older or damaged structures can require significant retrofit to ensure they perform well in subsequent earthquakes. Supplemental damping devices are used to achieve this goal, but increase base shear forces, foundation demand, and cost. Displacement reduction without increasing base shear is possible using novel semi-active and recently-created passive devices, which offer energy dissipation in selected quadrants of the force-displacement response. Combining these devices with large, strictly passive energy dissipation devices can offer greater, yet customized response reductions. Supplemental damping to reduce response without increasing base shear enables a net-zero base shear approach. This study evaluates this concept using two incremental dynamic analyses (IDAs) to show displacement reductions up to 40% without increasing base shear, more than would be achieved for either device alone, significantly reducing the risk of response exceeding the unaltered structural case. IDA results lead to direct calculation of reductions in risk and annualized economic cost for adding these devices using this net-zero concept, thus quantifying the trade-off. The overall device assessment and risk analysis method presented provides a generalizable proof-of-concept approach, and provides a framework for assessing the impact and economic cost-benefit of using modern supplemental energy dissipation devices.

A Study on Integrated Assessment of Baekdu Mountain Volcanic Aisaster risk Based on GIS (GIS기법을 이용한 백두산 화산재해 종합평가 연구)

  • Xiao-Jiao, Ni;Choi, Yun Soo;Ying, Nan
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.77-87
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    • 2014
  • Recently there are many disasters caused by volcanic activities such as the eruptions in Tungurahua, Ecuador(2014) and $Eyjafjallaj\ddot{o}kull$, Iceland(2010). Therefore, it is required to prepare countermeasures for the disasters. This study analyzes the Baekdu Mountain area, where is the risky area because it is active volcano, based on the observed data and scientific methods in order to assess a risk, produce a hazard map and analyze a degree of risk caused by the volcano. Firstly, it is reviewed for the research about the Baekdu mountain volcanic eruption in 1215(${\pm}15$ years) done by Liu Ruoxin. And the factors causing volcanic disaster, environmental effects, and vulnerability of Baekdu Mountain are assessed by the dataset, which includes the earthquake monitoring data, the volcanic deformation monitoring data, the volcanic fluid geochemical monitoring data, and the socio-economic statistics data. A hazard, especially caused by a volcano, distribution map for the Baekdu Mountain Area is produced by using the assessment results, and the map is used to establish the disaster risk index system which has the four phases. The first and second phases are very high risky area when the Baekdu Mountain erupts, and the third and fourth phases are less dangerous area. The map shows that the center of mountain has the first phase and the farther area from the center has the lower phase. Also, the western of Baekdu Mountain is more vulnerable to get the risk than the eastern when the factors causing volcanic disasters are equally applied. It seems to be caused by the lower stability of the environment and the higher vulnerability.

Probabilistic seismic performance assessment of self-centering prestressed concrete frames with web friction devices

  • Song, Long L.;Guo, Tong
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.109-118
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    • 2017
  • A novel post-tensioned self-centering (SC) concrete beam-column connection with web friction devices has been proposed for concrete moment-resisting frames. This paper presents a probabilistic performance evaluation procedure to evaluate the performance of the self-centering concrete frame with the proposed post-tensioned beam-column connections. Two performance limit states, i.e., immediate occupancy (IO) and repairable (RE) limit states, are defined based on peak and residual story drift ratios. Statistical analyses of seismic demands revealed that the dispersion of residual drifts is larger than that of peak drifts. Due to self-centering feature of post-tensioning connections, the SC frame was found to have high probabilities to be recentered under the design basis earthquake (DBE) and maximum considered earthquake (MCE) ground motions. Seismic risk analysis was performed to determine the annual (50-year) probability of exceedance for IO and RE performance limit states, and the results revealed that the design objectives of the SC frame would be met under the proposed performance-based design approach.