• Title/Summary/Keyword: earthquake prediction

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Prediction of earthquake-induced crest settlement of embankment dams using gene expression programming

  • Evren, Seyrek;Sadettin, Topcu
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.637-651
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    • 2022
  • The seismic design of embankment dams requires more comprehensive studies to understand the behaviour of dams. Deformations primarily control this behaviour occur during or after earthquake loading. Dam failures and incidents show that the impacts of deformations should be reviewed for existing and new embankment dams. Overtopping erosion failure can occur if crest deformations exceed the freeboard at the time of the deformations. Therefore, crest settlement is one of the most critical deformations. This study developed empirical formulas using Gene Expression Programming (GEP) based on 88 cases. In the analyses, dam height (Hd), alluvium thickness (Ha), the magnitude-acceleration-factor (MAF) values developed based on earthquake magnitude (Mw) and peak ground acceleration (PGA) within this study have been chosen as variables. Results show that GEP models developed in the paper are remarkably robust and accessible tools to predict earthquake-induced crest settlement of embankment dams and perform superior to the existing formulation. Also, dam engineering professionals can use them practically because the variables of prediction equations are easily accessible after the earthquake.

Evaluating the Efficiency of Models for Predicting Seismic Building Damage (지진으로 인한 건물 손상 예측 모델의 효율성 분석)

  • Chae Song Hwa;Yujin Lim
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.217-220
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    • 2024
  • Predicting earthquake occurrences accurately is challenging, and preparing all buildings with seismic design for such random events is a difficult task. Analyzing building features to predict potential damage and reinforcing vulnerabilities based on this analysis can minimize damages even in buildings without seismic design. Therefore, research analyzing the efficiency of building damage prediction models is essential. In this paper, we compare the accuracy of earthquake damage prediction models using machine learning classification algorithms, including Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting, LightGBM, and CatBoost, utilizing data from buildings damaged during the 2015 Nepal earthquake.

The Earthquake Case Study and Disasters Information System Based on the GIS

  • Ding, X.;WANG, X.Q.
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.1067-1069
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    • 2003
  • The Earthquake Case Study and Disasters Information System based on GIS (MapECDIS 2002 for Windows), sponsored by Science and Technique Ministry of CHINA, is a GIS system developed to provide a tool for the government and the public to query and comprehend the disaster information (since 2221BC) and case study results (since 1966) of destructive earthquakes occurred in China. The system is expected to be useful for the earthquake forecast practice, the seismology research and earthquake disasters research as an applied assistant tool. The design idea and main functions of the system are introduced in the paper.

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Prediction of Time Histories of Seismic Ground Motion using Genetic Programming

  • YOSHIHARA, Ikuo;Inaba, Masaaki;AOYAMA, Tomoo;Yasunaga, Moritoshi
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1999.10a
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    • pp.226-229
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    • 1999
  • We have been developing a method to build models for time series using Genetic Programming. The proposed method has been applied to various kinds of time series e.g. computer-generated chaos, natural phenomena, and financial market indices etc. Now we apply the prediction method to time histories of seismic ground motion i.e. one-step-ahead prediction of seismographic amplitude. Waves of earthquakes are composed of P-waves and S-waves. They propagate in different speeds and have different characteristics. It is believed that P-waves arrive firstly and S-waves arrive secondly. Simulations were performed based on real data of Hyuganada earthquake which broke out at southern part of Kyushuu Island in Japan. To our surprise, prediction model built using the earthquake waves in early time can enough precisely predict main huge waves in later time. Lots of experiments lead us to conclude that every slice of data involves P-wave and S-wave. The simulation results suggest the GP-based prediction method can be utilized in alarm systems or dispatch systems in an emergency.

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Numerical simulation of shaking table tests on 3D reinforced concrete structures

  • Bayhan, Beyhan
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.151-171
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    • 2013
  • The current paper presents the numerical blind prediction of nonlinear seismic response of two full-scale, three dimensional, one-story reinforced concrete structures subjected to bidirectional earthquake simulations on shaking table. Simulations were carried out at the laboratories of LNEC (Laboratorio Nacional de Engenharia Civil) in Lisbon, Portugal. The study was motivated by participation in the blind prediction contest of shaking table tests, organized by the challenge committee of the 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering. The test specimens, geometrically identical, designed for low and high ductility levels, were subjected to subsequent earthquake motions of increasing intensity. Three dimensional nonlinear analytical models were implemented and subjected to the input base motions. Reasonably accurate reproduction of the measured displacement response was obtained through appropriate modeling. The goodness of fit between analytical and measured results depended on the details of the analytical models.

Digital map arrangement of Hamamatsu City for the prediction and restoration of the earthquake disasters

  • Iwasaki Kazutaka;Mochizuki Emi;Ogawa Yoko;Abe Keiichi
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2004.10a
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    • pp.17-20
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    • 2004
  • The purpose of this study is to arrange the digital maps of Hamamatsu City and to construct the map information system to support the prediction and restoration of Tokai earthquake disasters. The authors arrange the land condition map and compute the populations of each land surface conditions and revealed that $37\%$ of the whole population lives in the safe land, but $63\%$ lives in the rather unsafe surface condition. The authors also arrange the digital map of the main lines of water supply pipe lines in corporation with the Hamamatsu City Water Supply Department and revealed the rather dangerous pipe line area in case of Tokai earthquake.

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Earthquake stresses and effective damping in concrete gravity dams

  • Akpinar, Ugur;Binici, Baris;Arici, Yalin
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.251-266
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    • 2014
  • Dynamic analyses for a suite of ground of motions were conducted on concrete gravity dam sections to examine the earthquake induced stresses and effective damping. For this purpose, frequency domain methods that rigorously incorporate dam-reservoir-foundation interaction and time domain methods with approximate hydrodynamic foundation interaction effects were employed. The maximum principal tensile stresses and their distribution at the dam base, which are important parameters for concrete dam design, were obtained using the frequency domain approach. Prediction equations were proposed for these stresses and their distribution at the dam base. Comparisons of the stress results obtained using frequency and time domain methods revealed that the dam height and ratio of modulus of elasticity of foundation rock to concrete are significant parameters that may influence earthquake induced stresses. A new effective damping prediction equation was proposed in order to estimate earthquake stresses accurately with the approximate time domain approach.

Korean Seismic Station Site Effect Estimation Using Generalized Inversion Technique (일반 역산 기법을 활용한 한국 지표 관측소 부지 효과 평가)

  • Jee, Hyun Woo;Han, Sang Whan
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.111-118
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    • 2023
  • The 2017 Pohang earthquake afflicted more significant economic losses than the 2016 Gyeongju earthquake, even if these earthquakes had a similar moment magnitude. This phenomenon could be due to local site conditions that amplify ground motions. Local site effects could be estimated from methods using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio, standard spectral ratio, and the generalized inversion technique. Since the generalized inversion method could estimate the site effect effectively, this study modeled the site effects in the Korean peninsula using the generalized inversion technique and the Fourier amplitude spectrum of ground motions. To validate the method, the site effects estimated for seismic stations were tested using recorded ground motions, and a ground motion prediction equation was developed without considering site effects.

Suggestions for an Effective Earthquake R&D Strategy in Korea through an Analysis of Japan's Earthquake Disaster Prevention System (일본의 지진방재·대응 시스템 분석을 통한 효과적인 우리나라 지진 R&D 전략 제언)

  • Kim, Seong-Yong;Lee, Jae-Wook
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.53 no.3
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    • pp.321-336
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    • 2020
  • The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) represents the upper-most level of Japan's earthquake disaster prevention governance. Its policy committee establishes the national earthquake investigation research promotion plan. The earthquake investigation committee of HERP collects survey geo-data and evaluates the research results of each earthquake disaster prevention agency. The establishment of an earthquake-related geo-resilience research strategy is both necessary and desirable for Korea. The concept of geo-resilience entails the ability to improve disaster resilience through the application of research results and the convergence of geoscience with science and technology (S&T) including the humanities and social sciences. The achievement of geo-resilience requires a national long-term roadmap and strategy for earthquake prediction research, the development of earthquake disaster prediction and prevention technology, Geo-ICT convergence technology development, implementation of a geocyber physics system (Geo-CPS), the use of geo-mimetics, and geoscientific R&D as it relates to local communities. Through such efforts, the national research institutes of Korea will be able to develop earthquake prediction capacities in relevant fields, reinforce proactive response capabilities, enhance community-level confidence in geodata and its research results, foster next-generation geoscientific manpower, and expand geoscientific infrastructure.

Prediction of Peak Ground Acceleration Generated from the 2017 Pohang Earthquake (2017년 포항지진으로 인하여 발생된 최대지반가속도 (PGA)예측)

  • Jee, Hyun Woo;Han, Sang Whan
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.211-217
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    • 2018
  • The Pohang earthquake with a magnitude of 5.4 occurred on November 15, 2018. The epicenter of this earthquake located in south-east region of the Korean peninsula. Since instrumental recording for earthquake ground motions started in Korea, this earthquake caused the largest economic and life losses among past earthquakes. Korea is located in low-to moderate seismic region, so that strong motion records are very limited. Therefore, ground motions recorded during the Pohang earthquake could have valuable geological and seismological information, which are important inputs for seismic design. In this study, ground motions associated by the 2018 Pohang earthquake are generated using the point source model considering domestic geological parameters (magnitude, hypocentral distance, distance-frequency dependent decay parameter, stress drop) and site amplification calculated from ground motion data at each stations. A contour map for peak ground acceleration is constructed for ground motions generated by the Pohang earthquake using the proposed model.