• 제목/요약/키워드: dynamic prediction method

검색결과 549건 처리시간 0.023초

연직진동말뚝의 동적 하중전이 특성 (Characteristics of Dynamic Load Transfer for Vertically Vibrating Pile)

  • 이승현;김응석;윤기용
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제15권6호
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    • pp.3872-3878
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    • 2014
  • 본 연구에서는 진동해머에 의해 시공되는 강널말뚝에 대한 계측시험결과를 바탕으로 진동해머에 의해 시공되는 말뚝의 해석에 필요한 이론적인 동적 하중전이함수를 구하고자 하였다. 동적 하중전이함수를 결정하기에 앞서 정적 하중전이함수를 Ramberg-Osgood 모델을 이용하여 모델링하였는데 Ramberg-Osgood 모델의 매개변수와 N값 사이의 평균 상관계수는 주면마찰의 경우 0.97이었고 선단저항의 경우 0.98로서 신뢰도가 높았다. 동적 하중전이함수는 수정 Ramberg-Osgood 모델을 이용하여 표현하고자 하였는데 결정된 매개변수를 적용하여 해석한 결과를 계측시험결과와 비교해 볼 때 유사한 하중전이특성을 보임을 알 수 있었다.

Predicting Ability of Dynamic Balance in Construction Workers Based on Demographic Information and Anthropometric Dimensions

  • Abdolahi, Fateme H.;Variani, Ali S.;Varmazyar, Sakineh
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • 제12권4호
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    • pp.511-516
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    • 2021
  • Background: Difficulties in walking and balance are risk factors for falling. This study aimed to predict dynamic balance based on demographic information and anthropometric dimensions in construction workers. Methods: This descriptive-analytical study was conducted on 114 construction workers in 2020. First, the construction workers were asked to complete the demographic questionnaire determined in order to be included in the study. Then anthropometric dimensions were measured. The dynamic balance of participants was also assessed using the Y Balance test kit. Dynamic balance prediction was performed based on demographic information and anthropometric dimensions using multiple linear regression with SPSS software version 25. Results: The highest average normalized reach distances of YBT were in the anterior direction and were 92.23 ± 12.43% and 92.28 ± 9.26% for right and left foot, respectively. Both maximal and average normalized composite reach in the YBT in each leg were negatively correlated with leg length and navicular drop and positively correlated with the ratio of sitting height to leg length. In addition, multiple linear regressions showed that age, navicular drop, leg length, and foot surface could predict 23% of the variance in YBT average normalized composite reach of the right leg, and age, navicular drop, and leg length could predict 21% of that in the left leg among construction workers. Conclusion: Approximately one-fifth of the variability in the normalized composite reach of dynamic balance reach among construction workers using method YBT can be predicted by variables age, navicular drop, leg length, and foot surface.

ESTIMATION OF FATIGUE LIFE BY LETHARGY COEFFICIENT USING MOLECULAR DYNAMIC SIMULATION

  • Song, J.H.;Noh, H.G.;Yu, H.S.;Kang, H.Y.;Yang, S.M.
    • International Journal of Automotive Technology
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    • 제5권3호
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    • pp.215-219
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    • 2004
  • A vehicle structure needs to be more precisely analyzed because of complexities and varieties. Structural fatigue which is generated by fluctuations of stresses during the service life of a mechanical system is the primary concern in the structural design for safety. A fatigue life is difficult to obtain in structural components during the service life of mechanical systems since the fluctuating stress contributes to fatigue. This study introduces new procedures to measure the lethargy coefficient and to predict the fatigue life of a mechanical structure by using molecular dynamic simulation. A lethargy coefficient is the total defect-estimating coefficient, which was obtained by using the results of a simple tensile test in this study. With this lethargy coefficient, fatigue life was estimated. The proposed method will be useful in predicting the fatigue life of a structurally-modified vehicle design. The effectiveness of the proposed method using lethargy coefficient measurement to predict the fatigue life of a structure was examined by applying this method to predict the fatigue life of SS41 steel, used extensively as material of vehicle structures. Two types of specimen such as pre-cracked plate and simple plate is discussed. equation of fatigue life using the lethargy coefficient and failure time, both obtained from a simple tensile test, will be useful in engineering. This measurement and prediction technology will be extended for use in analysis of any geometric shapes of modified automotive structures.

스마트 그리드에서의 시계열 군집분석을 통한 전력수요 예측 연구 (A study on electricity demand forecasting based on time series clustering in smart grid)

  • 손흥구;정상욱;김삼용
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제29권1호
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    • pp.193-203
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    • 2016
  • 본 논문은 ICT기반 시장에서의 수요관리시스템에서의 핵심 요소인 전력 수요 예측을 위하여, 전체 사용량을 기반으로 예측 하는 방식이 아닌, 시계열 기반 군집분석을 통한 군집별 예측량의 결합을 실시하였다. 시계열 군집 분석 방법으로서 Periodogram 기반의 정규화 군집분석, 예측 기반의 군집분석, DTW(Dynamic Time Warping)를 이용하여 군집화를 시도하였으며, 군집 별 수요예측 모형으로서 DSHW(Double Seasonal Holt-Winters) 모형, TBATS(Trigonometric, Box-Cox transform, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components) 모형, FARIMA(Fractional ARIMA) 모형을 사용하여 예측을 실시하였다. 전체 사용량을 기반으로 예측 하는 방식이 아닌, 군집분석을 통한 군집별 예측량의 결합이 더 낮은 MAPE로 나타남에 따라 우수한 예측 방법으로 판단되었다.

협업 필터링 추천시스템에서의 취향 공간을 이용한 평가 예측 기법 (Improving Collaborative Filtering with Rating Prediction Based on Taste Space)

  • 이형동;김형주
    • 한국정보과학회논문지:데이타베이스
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    • 제34권5호
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    • pp.389-395
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    • 2007
  • 협업 필터링은 정보 과잉 문제를 해결하기 위한 정보 필터링의 주요 기법이며, 전자 상거래 분야에서 추천 시스템과 같은 응용 프로그램에서 널리 사용된다. 협업 필터링 시스템은 사용자들의 대상 항목에 대한 평가를 수집한 후 취향이 서로 비슷한 사용자들의 의견을 바탕으로 아직 평가되지 않은 항목에 대해 예측을 수행한다. 시스템의 예측 성능은 사용자들에 의해 공통적으로 평가된 항목들의 개수에 좌우된다. 그러므로 대상 항목들이 수시로 추가되거나 제거되는 동적 컬렉션의 경우 협업 필터링 알고리즘을 그대로 적용하기 어렵다. 본 논문에서는 동적 컬렉션에 대한 협업 필터링 적용 방법을 제시한다. 제안한 방법에서는 SVD 기법을 이용하여 항목들의 취향 공간을 생성한 후 과거 항목들과 새로운 항목들 간의 연관성을 구하기 위해 핵심 항목들의 클러스터를 구성한다. 이를 평가하기 위해서 사용자 평가 데이타베이스를 시간에 의해 두 부분으로 나누고, 동적으로 추가되는 상황을 시뮬레이션해석 시스템의 예측 성능을 분석했다. 이를 통해 본 방법이 동적 컬렉션에 효과적으로 적용됨을 보인다.

보다 정확한 동적 상황인식 추천을 위해 정확 및 오류 패턴을 활용하여 순차적 매칭 성능이 개선된 상황 예측 방법 (Context Prediction Using Right and Wrong Patterns to Improve Sequential Matching Performance for More Accurate Dynamic Context-Aware Recommendation)

  • 권오병
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제19권3호
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    • pp.51-67
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    • 2009
  • Developing an agile recommender system for nomadic users has been regarded as a promising application in mobile and ubiquitous settings. To increase the quality of personalized recommendation in terms of accuracy and elapsed time, estimating future context of the user in a correct way is highly crucial. Traditionally, time series analysis and Makovian process have been adopted for such forecasting. However, these methods are not adequate in predicting context data, only because most of context data are represented as nominal scale. To resolve these limitations, the alignment-prediction algorithm has been suggested for context prediction, especially for future context from the low-level context. Recently, an ontological approach has been proposed for guided context prediction without context history. However, due to variety of context information, acquiring sufficient context prediction knowledge a priori is not easy in most of service domains. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to propose a novel context prediction methodology, which does not require a priori knowledge, and to increase accuracy and decrease elapsed time for service response. To do so, we have newly developed pattern-based context prediction approach. First of ail, a set of individual rules is derived from each context attribute using context history. Then a pattern consisted of results from reasoning individual rules, is developed for pattern learning. If at least one context property matches, say R, then regard the pattern as right. If the pattern is new, add right pattern, set the value of mismatched properties = 0, freq = 1 and w(R, 1). Otherwise, increase the frequency of the matched right pattern by 1 and then set w(R,freq). After finishing training, if the frequency is greater than a threshold value, then save the right pattern in knowledge base. On the other hand, if at least one context property matches, say W, then regard the pattern as wrong. If the pattern is new, modify the result into wrong answer, add right pattern, and set frequency to 1 and w(W, 1). Or, increase the matched wrong pattern's frequency by 1 and then set w(W, freq). After finishing training, if the frequency value is greater than a threshold level, then save the wrong pattern on the knowledge basis. Then, context prediction is performed with combinatorial rules as follows: first, identify current context. Second, find matched patterns from right patterns. If there is no pattern matched, then find a matching pattern from wrong patterns. If a matching pattern is not found, then choose one context property whose predictability is higher than that of any other properties. To show the feasibility of the methodology proposed in this paper, we collected actual context history from the travelers who had visited the largest amusement park in Korea. As a result, 400 context records were collected in 2009. Then we randomly selected 70% of the records as training data. The rest were selected as testing data. To examine the performance of the methodology, prediction accuracy and elapsed time were chosen as measures. We compared the performance with case-based reasoning and voting methods. Through a simulation test, we conclude that our methodology is clearly better than CBR and voting methods in terms of accuracy and elapsed time. This shows that the methodology is relatively valid and scalable. As a second round of the experiment, we compared a full model to a partial model. A full model indicates that right and wrong patterns are used for reasoning the future context. On the other hand, a partial model means that the reasoning is performed only with right patterns, which is generally adopted in the legacy alignment-prediction method. It turned out that a full model is better than a partial model in terms of the accuracy while partial model is better when considering elapsed time. As a last experiment, we took into our consideration potential privacy problems that might arise among the users. To mediate such concern, we excluded such context properties as date of tour and user profiles such as gender and age. The outcome shows that preserving privacy is endurable. Contributions of this paper are as follows: First, academically, we have improved sequential matching methods to predict accuracy and service time by considering individual rules of each context property and learning from wrong patterns. Second, the proposed method is found to be quite effective for privacy preserving applications, which are frequently required by B2C context-aware services; the privacy preserving system applying the proposed method successfully can also decrease elapsed time. Hence, the method is very practical in establishing privacy preserving context-aware services. Our future research issues taking into account some limitations in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, user acceptance or usability will be tested with actual users in order to prove the value of the prototype system. Second, we will apply the proposed method to more general application domains as this paper focused on tourism in amusement park.

비선형 이동경화를 고려한 점소성 모델의 내연적 적분 (A Semi-Implicit Integration for Rate-Dependent Plasticity with Nonlinear Kinematic Hardening)

  • 윤삼손;이순복
    • 대한기계학회논문집A
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    • 제27권9호
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    • pp.1562-1570
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    • 2003
  • The prediction of the inelastic behavior of the structure is an essential part of reliability assessment procedure, because most of the failures are induced by the inelastic deformation, such as creep and plastic deformation. During decades, there has been much progress in understanding of the inelastic behavior of the materials and a lot of inelastic constitutive equations have been developed. The complexity of these constitutive equations generally requires a stable and accurate numerical method. The radial return mapping is one of the most robust integration scheme currently used. Nonlinear kinematic hardening model of Armstrong-Fredrick type has recovery term and the direction of kinematic hardening increment is not parallel to that of plastic strain increment. In this case, The conventional radial return mapping method cannot be applied directly. In this investigation, we expanded the radial return mapping method to consider the nonlinear kinematic hardening model and implemented this integration scheme into ABAQUS by means of UMAT subroutine. The solution of the non-linear system of algebraic equations arising from time discretization with the generalized midpoint rule is determined using Newton method and bisection method. Using dynamic yield condition derived from linearization of flow rule, the integration scheme for elastoplastic and viscoplastic constitutive model was unified. Several numerical examples are considered to demonstrate the efficiency and applicability of the present method.

경계조건을 고려한 단순보의 유한요소모델개선 (Finite Element Model Updating of Simple Beam Considering Boundary Conditions)

  • 김세훈;박영수;김남규;이종재
    • 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 논문집
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    • 제22권2호
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    • pp.76-82
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    • 2018
  • 본 논문에서는 지점부 경계조건을 고려하여 단순보의 유한요소모델을 개선하는 기법을 제안하였다. 기존의 유한요소모델개선 기법은 주로 가속도 응답으로부터 추정된 동특성(고유진동수, 모드형상)을 이용하여 유한요소모델을 개선하였다. 이렇게 개선된 유한요소모델은 실제 구조물의 정적응답을 예측하기 어렵고, 잘못된 구조물의 물성치를 추정하는 문제가 발생한다. 제안된 기법은 먼저, 구조물의 처짐과 지점부 회전변위를 계측하여 지점부 경계조건을 간략화한 유한요소모델의 회전 스프링 강성을 정량적으로 추정한다. 회전 스프링 강성이 개선된 유한요소모델과 구조물의 동특성을 사용하여 구조물의 물성치를 추정함으로써 최종 개선된 유한요소모델을 구축된다. 제안된 유한요소모델 개선 기법과 기존 유한요소모델개선 기법을 수치해석 시뮬레이션을 통하여 비교 및 검증하였다.

유한요소법을 이용한 파괴 역학적 방법의 신뢰성설계기술에 관한 연구 (A Study on Reliability Design of Fracture Mechanics Method Using FEM)

  • 백승엽;이봉구
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제16권7호
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    • pp.4398-4404
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    • 2015
  • 스테인리스 강판은 동적기계구조물을 제작하기 위한 구조용 재료로 널리 사용된다. 또한 이들을 일체화 시키는 방법으로 가스용접을 많이 사용하게 되는데 가스용접에는 다양한 종류에 의해 구조물을 일체화 시킨다. 따라서 부재와 부재를 연결하는 용접부에 대한 응력분포 및 피로강도평가는 구조물의 건전성 및 수명을 연구하는데 매우 중요한 요소가 된다. 그래서 본 연구에서는 피로시험에 의해서 얻어지는 ${\Delta}P-N_f$ 관계를 유한요소해석법에 의해서 최대주응력으로 ${\Delta}{\sigma}-N_f$ 관계로 나타내어 피로설계기준을 정하였고, 이 결과를 이용해서 확률론적 통계해석기법을 적용해서 가속식을 추정하여 임의의 목표수명을 예측할 수 있는 신뢰성설계기술기법을 제시하고자 하였다.

압축 영역에서의 양방향 예측 구조를 이용한 움직임 흐름 분석 (Motion Flow Analysis using Bi-directional Prediction-Independent Framework in MPEG Compressed Domain)

  • 김낙우;김태용;최종수
    • 대한전자공학회논문지SP
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    • 제41권5호
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    • pp.13-22
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    • 2004
  • 비디오 시퀀스는 일반적으로 다양한 움직임을 가지는 객체들로 구성되어 있기 때문에, 움직임 특징은 비디오 검색 등에서 매우 중요한 역할을 한다. 본 논문에서는 MPEG 압축 영상에서의 움직임 벡터를 비디오 영상의 움직임 표현 서술자로 활용하는 새로운 방법이 제안된다. 즉, 압축 영상에서의 다양한 움직임 벡터를 프레임이나 매크로블록 예측 구조에 관계없이 단일 움직임 방향만을 갖도록 하여, 이것을 해당 영상의 서술자로 활용한다. 이를 위하여, 본 논문에서는 양방향 예측 구조를 이용한 벡터 재해석 기법을 제안한다. 보통, 압축 영역에서의 각 프레임 움직임 해석 시, 움직임 벡터가 없는 I 프레임과 그 외 프레임들의 직접 비교는 불가능하지만, 제안 기법은 1, B, p 프레임 등의 모든 프레임에서 동등하게 벡터 해석을 할 수 있게 한다. 제안된 알고리즘은 압축 영상의 전체 복원과정 없이 매크로 블록 영역 상에서 처리함으로써 시간 손실을 줄이고 있으며, 실험 결과는 제안된 방법의 높은 성능을 잘 나타내어 주고 있다.