• Title/Summary/Keyword: dynamic prediction method

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Improvement in Seasonal Prediction of Precipitation and Drought over the United States Based on Regional Climate Model Using Empirical Quantile Mapping (경험적 분위사상법을 이용한 지역기후모형 기반 미국 강수 및 가뭄의 계절 예측 성능 개선)

  • Song, Chan-Yeong;Kim, So-Hee;Ahn, Joong-Bae
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.637-656
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    • 2021
  • The United States has been known as the world's major producer of crops such as wheat, corn, and soybeans. Therefore, using meteorological long-term forecast data to project reliable crop yields in the United States is important for planning domestic food policies. The current study is part of an effort to improve the seasonal predictability of regional-scale precipitation across the United States for estimating crop production in the country. For the purpose, a dynamic downscaling method using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is utilized. The WRF simulation covers the crop-growing period (March to October) during 2000-2020. The initial and lateral boundary conditions of WRF are derived from the Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model (PNU CGCM), a participant model of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) Long-Term Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System. For bias correction of downscaled daily precipitation, empirical quantile mapping (EQM) is applied. The downscaled data set without and with correction are called WRF_UC and WRF_C, respectively. In terms of mean precipitation, the EQM effectively reduces the wet biases over most of the United States and improves the spatial correlation coefficient with observation. The daily precipitation of WRF_C shows the better performance in terms of frequency and extreme precipitation intensity compared to WRF_UC. In addition, WRF_C shows a more reasonable performance in predicting drought frequency according to intensity than WRF_UC.

A method for removal of reflection artifact in computational fluid dynamic simulation of supersonic jet noise (초음속 제트소음의 전산유체 모사 시 반사파 아티팩트 제거 기법)

  • Park, Taeyoung;Joo, Hyun-Shik;Jang, Inman;Kang, Seung-Hoon;Ohm, Won-Suk;Shin, Sang-Joon;Park, Jeongwon
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.364-370
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    • 2020
  • Rocket noise generated from the exhaust plume produces the enormous acoustic loading, which adversely affects the integrity of the electronic components and payload (satellite) at liftoff. The prediction of rocket noise consists of two steps: the supersonic jet exhaust is simulated by a method of the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), and an acoustic transport method, such as the Helmholtz-Kirchhoff integral, is applied to predict the noise field. One of the difficulties in the CFD step is to remove the boundary reflection artifacts from the finite computation boundary. In general, artificial damping, known as a sponge layer, is added nearby the boundary to attenuate these reflected waves but this layer demands a large computational area and an optimization procedure of related parameters. In this paper, a cost-efficient way to separate the reflected waves based on the two microphone method is firstly introduced and applied to the computation result of a laboratory-scale supersonic jet noise without sponge layers.

Parameter Identification and Nonlinear Seismic Analysis of Soil-Structure Interaction System (지반-구조물 상호작용계의 강성계수추정 및 비선형지진해석)

  • 윤정방;최준성;김재민;김문수
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.41-49
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    • 1997
  • This paper presents the result of an international cooperative research on the post-correlation analysis of forced vibration tests and the prediction of earthquake responses of a large-scale seismic test structure. The dynamic analysis is carried out using the axisymmetric finite element method incorporating in finite elements for the for field soil region. Through the post-correlation analysis, the properties of the soil layers are revised so that the best correlation in the responses may be obtained compared with the measured force vibration test data. Utilizing the revised soil properties as the initial linear values, the seismic responses are predicted for an earthquake using the equivalent linearlization technique. It has been found that the predicted responses by the equivalent nonlinear procedure are in excellent agreement with the observed responses, while those using the linear properties are fairly off from the measured results.

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Evaluation Concept of Progressive Collapse Sensitivity of Steel Moment Frame using Energy-based Approximate Analysis (에너지 기반 근사해석을 이용한 철골모멘트골조의 연쇄붕괴 민감도 평가방법)

  • Noh, Sam-Young;Park, Ki-Hwan;Lee, Sang-Yun
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.108-116
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    • 2017
  • In this study, the prototype structure of seismically designed steel moment frame was analyzed statically and dynamically in order to demonstrate the applicability of energy-based approximate analysis with the dynamic effect of sudden column loss in the evaluation of the collapse resistance and a method for assessing the sensitivity to progressive collapse was proposed. For the purpose of comparing the structural behavior of buildings with different structural systems, the sensitivity of the structure to the sudden removal of vertical members can be used as a significant measure. The energy-based approximate analysis prediction for the prototype structure considered in the study showed good agreement with the dynamic analysis result. In the sensitivity evaluation, the structural robustness index that indicates the ability of a structure to resist collapse induced by abnormal loads was used. It was confirmed that the proposed methods can be used conveniently and rationally in progressive collapse analysis and design.

A Study on the Determination of the Tip-Over Stability of High Place Operation Car Using Multibody Dynamics Program and ZMP (다물체 동역학 프로그램과 ZMP 이론을 이용한 고소작업차량의 전도 안정성 판별에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sang Won;Jung, Chang Jo;Lee, Jung-Hwan;Kang, Dong-Myeng;Park, Moon-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.145-152
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    • 2018
  • This study deals with the method of determining the tip-over stability of a truck mounted on a high place operation car that is frequently used to carry out high-altitude work. Multibody Dynamics Program and Zero Moment Point (ZMP) theory are used to include dynamic effects during the car's high place operation. Through a combination of the Multibody Dynamics Program and ZMP, understanding the dynamic effects of the car's operating parts and building a detailed tip-over model of the car permitted a more precise prediction of the car's tipping-over behavior. It is also expected to help reduce the car's development time due to the time-effective simulation and provide safer work levels for the operating guide (in terms of working radius and lifting capability) with the dynamics effects.

Development of a Dynamic System Simulating Pig Gastric Digestion

  • Chiang, C.-C.;Croom, J.;Chuang, S.-T.;Chiou, P.W.S.;Yu, B.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.21 no.10
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    • pp.1522-1528
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    • 2008
  • The objective of this study was to develop a model for simulating gastric digestion in the pig. The model was constructed to include the chemical and physical changes associated with gastric digestion such as enzyme release, digestion product removal and gastric emptying. Digesta was collected from the stomach cannula of pigs to establish system parameters and to document the ability of the model to simulate gastric digestion. The results showed that the average pH of gastric digesta increased significantly from 2.47 to 4.97 after feed consumption and then decreased 140 min postprandial. The model described the decrease in pH within the pigs' stomach as $pH_t=5.182e^{-0.0014t}$, where t represents the postprandial time in minutes. The cumulative distribution function of liquid digesta was $V_t=64.509e^{0.0109t}$. The average pepsin activity in the liquid digesta was 317Anson units/mL. There was significant gastric emptying 220 min after feed consumption. The cybernetic dynamic system of gastric digestion was set according to the above data in order to compare with in vivo changes. The time course of crude protein digestion predicted by the model was highly correlated with observed in vivo digestion (r = 0.97; p = 0.0001), Model prediction for protein digestion was higher than that observed for a traditional static in vitro method (r = 0.89; p = 0.0001).

POMDP Based Trustworthy Android App Recommendation Services (부분적 관찰정보기반 견고한 안드로이드 앱 추천 기법)

  • Oh, Hayoung;Goo, EunHee
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.1499-1506
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    • 2017
  • The use of smartphones and the launch of various apps have increased exponentially, and malicious apps have also increased. Existing app recommendation systems have been limited to operate based on static information analysis such as ratings, comments, and popularity categories of other users who are online. In this paper, we first propose a robust app recommendation system that realistically uses dynamic information of apps actually used in smartphone and considers static information and dynamic information at the same time. In other words, this paper proposes a robust Android app recommendation system by partially reflecting the time of the app, the frequency of use of the app, the interaction between the app and the app, and the number of contact with the Android kernel. As a result of the performance evaluation, the proposed method proved to be a robust and efficient app recommendation system.

The Analysis of the Effect of Fiscal Decentralization on Economic Growth: Centering The U. S. (재정분권화가 경제성장에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증연구: 미국의 경우를 중심으로)

  • Choi, Won Ick
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.77-97
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    • 2012
  • Estimated coefficients has serious problems including inconsistency, biasness, etc. because many researches about the effect of fiscal decentralization on a country's economic growth use the traditional OLS method. Researches use the data intactly so that so called "spurious regression" phenomenon exists. This causes fundamental fallacy. This research tries unit root test, cointegration test, and then estimates the United States' economic time series by using VECM. The analysis of the effect of the state level-fiscal decentralization on economic growth shows two long term-equilibriums. During short term-dynamic adjustment, fiscal decentralization and economic growth move the same or different directions. In case of prediction GDP increases steeply and then from 2015 gently; and fiscal decentralization index shows a general reduction trend and then decreases slowly. At local level it shows two long term-equilibriums. During short term-dynamic adjustment, fiscal decentralization and economic growth also move the same or different directions. Impulse response analysis shows the very negative effect of fiscal decentralization on economic growth.

A new method to predict the critical incidence angle for buildings under near-fault motions

  • Sebastiani, Paolo E.;Liberatore, Laura;Lucchini, Andrea;Mollaioli, Fabrizio
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.68 no.5
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    • pp.575-589
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    • 2018
  • It is well known that the incidence angle of seismic excitation has an influence on the structural response of buildings, and this effect can be more significant in the case of near-fault signals. However, current seismic codes do not include detailed requirements regarding the direction of application of the seismic action and they have only recently introduced specific provisions about near-fault earthquakes. Thus, engineers have the task of evaluating all the relevant directions or the most critical conditions case by case, in order to avoid underestimating structural demand. To facilitate the identification of the most critical incidence angle, this paper presents a procedure which makes use of a two-degree of freedom model for representing a building. The proposed procedure makes it possible to avoid the extensive computational effort of multiple dynamic analyses with varying angles of incidence of ground motion excitation, which is required if a spatial multi-degree of freedom model is used for representing a building. The procedure is validated through the analysis of two case studies consisting of an eight- and a six-storey reinforced concrete frame building, selected as representative of existing structures located in Italy. A set of 124 near-fault ground motion records oriented along 8 incidence angles, varying from 0 to 180 degrees, with increments of 22.5 degrees, is used to excite the structures. Comparisons between the results obtained with detailed models of the two structures and the proposed procedure are used to show the accuracy of the latter in the prediction of the most critical angle of seismic incidence.

Predicting Dynamic Response of a Railway Bridge Using Transfer-Learning Technique (전이학습 기법을 이용한 철도교량의 동적응답 예측)

  • Minsu Kim;Sanghyun Choi
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.39-48
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    • 2023
  • Because a railway bridge is designed over a long period of time and covers a large site, it involves various environmental factors and uncertainties. For this reason, design changes often occur, even if the design was thoroughly reviewed in the initial design stage. In particular, design changes of large-scale facilities, such as railway bridges, consume significant time and cost, and it is extremely inefficient to repeat all the procedures each time. In this study, a technique that can improve the efficiency of learning after design change was developed by utilizing the learning result before design change through transfer learning among deep-learning algorithms. For analysis, scenarios were created, and a database was built using a previously developed railway bridge deep-learning-based prediction system. The proposed method results in similar accuracy when learning only 1000 data points in the new domain compared with the 8000 data points used for learning in the old domain before the design change. Moreover, it was confirmed that it has a faster convergence speed.