• Title/Summary/Keyword: dynamic decision network

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Bayesian Network Analysis for the Dynamic Prediction of Financial Performance Using Corporate Social Responsibility Activities (베이지안 네트워크를 이용한 기업의 사회적 책임활동과 재무성과)

  • Sun, Eun-Jung
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.71-92
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    • 2015
  • This study analyzes the impact of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) activities on financial performances using Bayesian Network. The research tries to overcome the issues of the uniform assumption of a linear function between financial performance and CSR activities in multiple regression analysis widely used in previous studies. It is required to infer a causal relationship between activities of CSR which have an impact on the financial performances. Identifying the relationship would empower the firms to improve their financial performance by informing the decision makers about the different CSR activities that influence the financial performance of the firms. This research proposes General Bayesian Network (GBN) and presents Markov Blanket induced from GBN. It is empirically demonstrated that all the proposals presented in this study are statistically significant by the results of the research conducted by Korean Economic Justice Institute (KEJI) under Citizen's Coalition for Economic Justice (CCEJ) which investigated approximately 200 companies in Korea based on Korean Economic Justice Institute Index (KEJI index) from 2005 to 2011. The Bayesian Network to effectively infer the properties affecting financial performances through the probabilistic causal relationship. Moreover, I found that there is a causal relationship among CSR activities variable; that is Environment protection is related to Customer protection, Employee satisfaction, and firm size; Soundness is related to Total CSR Evaluation Score, Debt-Assets Ratio. Though the what-if analysis, I suggest to the sensitive factor among the explanatory variables.

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Information Management System for Construction Works using Web GIS (Web GIS를 이용한 건설공사 정보관리 시스템 구축)

  • Woo, Je-Yoon;Koo, Jee-Hee;Na, Joon-Yeep;Pyeon, Mu-Wook
    • Journal of Korea Spatial Information System Society
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    • v.3 no.2 s.6
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    • pp.45-51
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    • 2001
  • It is difficult for existing construction support system to provide real-world information such as geographical and spatial data, geographic information system is expected to be able to supply efficiently analyzing and supporting function as well as actual data by connecting construction support system. Furthermore, the providing method and content of GIS are varied by building various network and information service, and use of web GIS which can offer diverse and dynamic solution on network is spreaded. In this study, information management system for construction works(CIMSGIS : Construction Information Management System on Web GIS) based on web GIS is developed, which can confirm instantly state of advance and manage construction progress by real-time reporting and instruction. Also CIMSGIS can support decision making on intuitive understanding and manifold operation reporting.

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Two-phases Hybrid Approaches and Partitioning Strategy to Solve Dynamic Commercial Fleet Management Problem Using Real-time Information (실시간 정보기반 동적 화물차량 운용문제의 2단계 하이브리드 해법과 Partitioning Strategy)

  • Kim, Yong-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.2 s.73
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    • pp.145-154
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    • 2004
  • The growing demand for customer-responsive, made-to-order manufacturing is stimulating the need for improved dynamic decision-making processes in commercial fleet operations. Moreover, the rapid growth of electronic commerce through the internet is also requiring advanced and precise real-time operation of vehicle fleets. Accompanying these demand side developments/pressures, the growing availability of technologies such as AVL(Automatic Vehicle Location) systems and continuous two-way communication devices is driving developments on the supply side. These technologies enable the dispatcher to identify the current location of trucks and to communicate with drivers in real time affording the carrier fleet dispatcher the opportunity to dynamically respond to changes in demand, driver and vehicle availability, as well as traffic network conditions. This research investigates key aspects of real time dynamic routing and scheduling problems in fleet operation particularly in a truckload pickup-and-delivery problem under various settings, in which information of stochastic demands is revealed on a continuous basis, i.e., as the scheduled routes are executed. The most promising solution strategies for dealing with this real-time problem are analyzed and integrated. Furthermore, this research develops. analyzes, and implements hybrid algorithms for solving them, which combine fast local heuristic approach with an optimization-based approach. In addition, various partitioning algorithms being able to deal with large fleet of vehicles are developed based on 'divided & conquer' technique. Simulation experiments are developed and conducted to evaluate the performance of these algorithms.

A Study on Human Error of DP Vessels LOP Incidents (DP 선박 위치손실사고의 인적오류에 관한 연구)

  • Chae, Chong-Ju
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.515-523
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    • 2015
  • This study reviewed 612 DP LOP(Loss of Position) incident reports which submitted to IMCA from 2001~2010 and identified 103 human error caused incidents and classified it through HFACS. And, this study analysis of conditional probability of human error on DP LOP incidents through application of bayesian network. As a result, all 103 human error related DP LOP incidents were caused by unsafe acts, and among unsafe acts 70 incidents(68.0 %) were related to skill based error which are the largest proportion of human error causes. Among skill based error, 60(58.3%) incidents were involved inadvertent use of controls and 8(7.8%) incidents were involved omitted step in procedure. Also, 21(20.8%) incidents were involved improper maneuver because of decision error. Also this study identified that unsafe supervision(68%) is effected as the largest latent causes of unsafe acts through application to bayesian network. As a results, it is identified that combined analysis of HFACS and bayesian network are useful tool for human error analysis. Based on these results, this study suggest 9 recommendations such as polices, interpersonal interaction, training etc. to prevent and mitigate human errors during DP operations.

Multiagent Enabled Modeling and Implementation of SCM (멀티에이전트 기반 SCM 모델링 및 구현)

  • Kim Tae Woon;Yang Seong Min;Seo Dae Hee
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.57-72
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this paper is to propose the modeling of multiagent based SCM and implement the prototype in the Internet environment. SCM process follows the supply chain operations reference (SCOR) model which has been suggested by Supply Chain Counsil. SCOR model has been positioned to become the industry standard for describing and improving operational process in SCM. Five basic processes, plan, source, matte, deliver and return are defined in the SCOR model, through which a company establishes its supply chain competitive objectives. A supply chain is a world wide network of suppliers, factories, warehouses, distribution centers and retailers through which raw materials are acquired, transformed or manufactured and delivered to customers by autonomous or semiautonomous process. With the pressure from the higher standard of customer compliance, a frequent model change, product complexity and globalization, the combination of supply chain process with an advanced infrastructure in terms of multiagent systems have been highly required. Since SCM is fundamentally concerned with coherence among multiple decision makers, a multiagent framework based on explicit communication between constituent agents such as suppliers, manufacturers, and distributors is a natural choice. Multiagent framework is defined to perform different activities within a supply chain. Dynamic and changing functions of supply chain can be dealt with multi-agent by cooperating with other agents. In the areas of inventory management, remote diagnostics, communications with field workers, order fulfillment including tracking and monitoring, stock visibility, real-time shop floor data collection, asset tracking and warehousing, customer-centric supply chain can be applied and implemented utilizing multiagent. In this paper, for the order processing event between the buyer and seller relationship, multiagent were defined corresponding to the SCOR process. A prototype system was developed and implemented on the actual TCP/IP environment for the purchase order processing event. The implementation result assures that multiagent based SCM enhances the speed, visibility, proactiveness and responsiveness of activities in the supply chain.

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Load Balancing in MPLS Networks (MPLS 네트워크에서의 부하 분산 방안)

  • Kim, Sae-Rin;Song, Jeong-Hwa;Lee, Mee-Jeong
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartC
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    • v.9C no.6
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    • pp.893-902
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    • 2002
  • MPLS enables efficient explicit routing, and thus provides great advantages in supporting traffic engineering. Exploiting this capability, we Propose a load balancing scheme which deploys a multipath routing. It is named LBM (Load Balancing in MPLS networks), and targets at efficient network utilization as well as performance enhancement. LBM establishes multiple LSP (Label Switched Path)s between a pair of ingress-egress routers, and distributes traffic over these LSPs at the new level. Its routing decision is based on both the length and the utilization of the paths. In order to enhance the efficiency of a link usage, a link is limited to be used by shorter paths as its utilization becomes higher Longer paths are considered to be candidate alternative paths as the utilization of shorter paths becomes higher. Simulation experiments are performed in order to compare the performance of LBM to that of static shortest path only scheme as well as the other representative dynamic multipath traffic distribution approaches. The simulation results show that LBM outperforms the compared approaches, and the performance gain is more significant when the traffic distribution among the ingress-egress pairs is non-uniform.

An Extended DDN based Self-Adaptive System (확장된 동적 결정 네트워크기반 자가적응형 시스템)

  • Kim, Misoo;Jeong, Hohyeon;Lee, Eunseok
    • Journal of KIISE
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    • v.42 no.7
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    • pp.889-900
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    • 2015
  • In order to solve problems happening in the practical environment of complicated system, the importance of the self-adaptive system has recently begun to emerge. However, since the differences between the model built at the time of system design and the practical environment can lead the system into unpredictable situations, the study into methods of dealing with it is also emerging as an important issue. In this paper, we propose a method for deciding on the adaptation time in an uncertain environment, and reflecting the real-time environment in the system's model. The proposed method calculates the Bayesian Surprise for the suitable adaptation time by comparing previous and current states, and then reflects the result following the performed policy in the design model to help in deciding the proper policy for the actual environment. The suggested method is applied to a navigation system to confirm its effectiveness.

A Study on Detection of Small Size Malicious Code using Data Mining Method (데이터 마이닝 기법을 이용한 소규모 악성코드 탐지에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Taek-Hyun;Kook, Kwang-Ho
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.11-17
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    • 2019
  • Recently, the abuse of Internet technology has caused economic and mental harm to society as a whole. Especially, malicious code that is newly created or modified is used as a basic means of various application hacking and cyber security threats by bypassing the existing information protection system. However, research on small-capacity executable files that occupy a large portion of actual malicious code is rather limited. In this paper, we propose a model that can analyze the characteristics of known small capacity executable files by using data mining techniques and to use them for detecting unknown malicious codes. Data mining analysis techniques were performed in various ways such as Naive Bayesian, SVM, decision tree, random forest, artificial neural network, and the accuracy was compared according to the detection level of virustotal. As a result, more than 80% classification accuracy was verified for 34,646 analysis files.

Secure and Efficient Cooperative Spectrum Sensing Against Byzantine Attack for Interweave Cognitive Radio System

  • Wu, Jun;Chen, Ze;Bao, Jianrong;Gan, Jipeng;Chen, Zehao;Zhang, Jia
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.16 no.11
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    • pp.3738-3760
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    • 2022
  • Due to increasing spectrum demand for new wireless devices applications, cooperative spectrum sensing (CSS) paradigm is the most promising solution to alleviate the spectrum shortage problem. However, in the interweave cognitive radio (CR) system, the inherent nature of CSS opens a hole to Byzantine attack, thereby resulting in a significant drop of the CSS security and efficiency. In view of this, a weighted differential sequential single symbol (WD3S) algorithm based on MATLAB platform is developed to accurately identify malicious users (MUs) and benefit useful sensing information from their malicious reports in this paper. In order to achieve this, a dynamic Byzantine attack model is proposed to describe malicious behaviors for MUs in an interweave CR system. On the basis of this, a method of data transmission consistency verification is formulated to evaluate the global decision's correctness and update the trust value (TrV) of secondary users (SUs), thereby accurately identifying MUs. Then, we innovatively reuse malicious sensing information from MUs by the weight allocation scheme. In addition, considering a high spectrum usage of primary network, a sequential and differential reporting way based on a single symbol is also proposed in the process of the sensing information submission. Finally, under various Byzantine attack types, we provide in-depth simulations to demonstrate the efficiency and security of the proposed WD3S.

AutoML and Artificial Neural Network Modeling of Process Dynamics of LNG Regasification Using Seawater (해수 이용 LNG 재기화 공정의 딥러닝과 AutoML을 이용한 동적모델링)

  • Shin, Yongbeom;Yoo, Sangwoo;Kwak, Dongho;Lee, Nagyeong;Shin, Dongil
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.59 no.2
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    • pp.209-218
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    • 2021
  • First principle-based modeling studies have been performed to improve the heat exchange efficiency of ORV and optimize operation, but the heat transfer coefficient of ORV is an irregular system according to time and location, and it undergoes a complex modeling process. In this study, FNN, LSTM, and AutoML-based modeling were performed to confirm the effectiveness of data-based modeling for complex systems. The prediction accuracy indicated high performance in the order of LSTM > AutoML > FNN in MSE. The performance of AutoML, an automatic design method for machine learning models, was superior to developed FNN, and the total time required for model development was 1/15 compared to LSTM, showing the possibility of using AutoML. The prediction of NG and seawater discharged temperatures using LSTM and AutoML showed an error of less than 0.5K. Using the predictive model, real-time optimization of the amount of LNG vaporized that can be processed using ORV in winter is performed, confirming that up to 23.5% of LNG can be additionally processed, and an ORV optimal operation guideline based on the developed dynamic prediction model was presented.