• Title/Summary/Keyword: dynamic decision making

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MDP(Markov Decision Process) Model for Prediction of Survivor Behavior based on Topographic Information (지형정보 기반 조난자 행동예측을 위한 마코프 의사결정과정 모형)

  • Jinho Son;Suhwan Kim
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.101-114
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    • 2023
  • In the wartime, aircraft carrying out a mission to strike the enemy deep in the depth are exposed to the risk of being shoot down. As a key combat force in mordern warfare, it takes a lot of time, effot and national budget to train military flight personnel who operate high-tech weapon systems. Therefore, this study studied the path problem of predicting the route of emergency escape from enemy territory to the target point to avoid obstacles, and through this, the possibility of safe recovery of emergency escape military flight personnel was increased. based problem, transforming the problem into a TSP, VRP, and Dijkstra algorithm, and approaching it with an optimization technique. However, if this problem is approached in a network problem, it is difficult to reflect the dynamic factors and uncertainties of the battlefield environment that military flight personnel in distress will face. So, MDP suitable for modeling dynamic environments was applied and studied. In addition, GIS was used to obtain topographic information data, and in the process of designing the reward structure of MDP, topographic information was reflected in more detail so that the model could be more realistic than previous studies. In this study, value iteration algorithms and deterministic methods were used to derive a path that allows the military flight personnel in distress to move to the shortest distance while making the most of the topographical advantages. In addition, it was intended to add the reality of the model by adding actual topographic information and obstacles that the military flight personnel in distress can meet in the process of escape and escape. Through this, it was possible to predict through which route the military flight personnel would escape and escape in the actual situation. The model presented in this study can be applied to various operational situations through redesign of the reward structure. In actual situations, decision support based on scientific techniques that reflect various factors in predicting the escape route of the military flight personnel in distress and conducting combat search and rescue operations will be possible.

A Case Study on Building a System Dynamics Model for Strategic Knowledge Management (전략적 지식경영을 위한 시스템 다이내믹스 모델 구축 사례 연구)

  • Park, Sang-Hyun;Yeon, Seung-Jun;Kim, Dong-Ho;Kim, Sang-Wook
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.101-115
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    • 2005
  • IT companies make a lot of effort to share and utilize the experiences of their members and transform them into organizational knowledge as a competitive core. However they face a dilemma in that they have to spend time and financial resources to perform activities around knowledge management for the long-term gains, while carrying at field-work for making short-term profits. As an initial attempt to tackle this managerial problem, this paper tries to investigate the mechanism of knowledge management in a small IT company in Korea with a synthetic view-point using system dynamics simulation model. It depicts the dynamic behaviors of knowledge management and presents some findings of political leverage. Although this model has to be further replenished, the scheme for the dynamism of knowledge management and the findings presented in the paper could be useful for the decision makers, especially of knowledge-intensive organizations.

Application of DC Resistivity Survey from Upper Portion of Concrete and Geostatistical Integrated Analysis (콘크리트 상부에서 전기비저항 탐사 적용 및 지구통계학적 복합 해석)

  • Lee, Heuisoon;Oh, Seokhoon;Chung, Hojoon;Noh, Myounggun;Ji, Yoonsoo;Ahn, Taegyu;Song, Sung-Ho;Yong, Hwan-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.29-40
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    • 2014
  • A DC resistivity survey was performed to detect anomalies beneath concrete pavement. A set of high conductive media and planar electrodes were used to lessen the effect's a high contact resistance of concrete. Results of the resistivity survey were analyzed and compared with those of other geophysical surveys such as Ground Penetration Radar (GPR), Impulse Response (IR), and Multi-channel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW), which were carried out in the same location. The results of resistivity survey showed a high resistive distribution in the section of sink and pavement where a pattern of reinforcement was observed through the GPR survey. Also, a comparison of results between the IR and resistivity surveys indicated that the high resistivity was produced by the high dynamic stiffness in the reinforced section. The co-Kriging of both the results of DC resistivity and MASW surveys at the same location showed that an integrated geostatistical analysis is able to give more accurate description on the anomalous subsurface region than can a separate analysis of each geophysical approach. This study suggests that the integrated geostatistical approaches were used for a decision-making process based on the geophysical surveys.

An Analysis on the Effect of Policy Using Macro-economic Forecasting Model of Jeju (제주지역 거시경제 전망모형을 이용한 정책효과 분석)

  • Ko, Bong-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.458-465
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of policy in Jeju, using a macro-economic forecasting model of Jeju. First, the model's reality explanatory power improved by updating its statistics to 2017 and expanding new policy variables and modules. Also, the industrial structure of the model was further subdivided and extended to be considered simultaneously in the demand side of Keynesian theory. Second, it was determined that the predictive power for the model of this study was better than that of the existing model. However, with some endogenous variables, it was possible to identify implications that should be developed and considered when the model is improved with additional data in the future. Third, when the second airport construction was considered, it was observed that its effect was an increase of 1.25 times for GRDP, 1.2 times for employment, 1.48 times for private consumption, and 2.06 times for investment. Also, the economic growth rate was estimated to be 1.6% point higher than when the second airport was not constructed. Finally, the results of this study are expected to be used for policy decision making of the Jeju Government.

A Route Search of Urban Traffic Network using Fuzzy Non-Additive Control (퍼지 비가법 제어를 이용한 도시 교통망의 경로 탐색)

  • 이상훈;김성환
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.103-113
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    • 2003
  • This paper shows alternative route search and preference route search for the traffic route search, and proposes the use of the fuzzy non-additive controller by the application of AHP(analytic hierarchy process). It is different from classical route search and notices thinking method of human. Appraisal element, weight of route is extracted from basic of the opinion gathering for the driving expert and example of route model was used for the finding of practice utility. Model evaluation was performed attribute membership function making of estimate element, estimate value setting, weight define by the AHP, non additive presentation of weight according to $\lambda$-fuzzy measure and Choquet fuzzy integral. Finally, alternative route search was possible to real time traffic route search for the well variable traffic environment, and preference route search showed reflection of traffic route search disposition for the driver individual. This paper has five important meaning. (1)The approach is similar to the driver's route selection decision process. (2)The approach is able to control of route appraisal criteria for the multiple attribute. (3)The approach makes subjective judgement objective by a non additive. (4)The approach shows dynamic route search for the alternative route search. (5)The approach is able to consider characteristics of individual drivers attributed for the preference route search.

A System Dynamics Model for Negotiation strategy Analysis with North Korea (남북관계와 대북협상전략)

  • 곽상만
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.5-31
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    • 2000
  • The summit meeting of the South North Korean leaders was a turning point in the relationships between the two countries. It was followed by the Red-Cross Meeting, Minister-Level Meeting, economic agreements, which have increased the relationship more colorful in both quantities and qualities. However, the half-century period for separation was too long to overcome all the problems by only one event. The two countries have quite different social systems; one politically strong person is governing the North, while many interest groups are involved in political decision making processes in the South. In short, it would take a long time to settle down all the problems residing between the two countries. A system dynamics model is developed to describe the long term dynamics of the relations between the South and North Koreas. As a first attempt, the model focuses only on the diplomatic meeting issues between the South and North. The model aggregates diplomatic issues into 5 categories; economic issues, security issues, infrastructure, cultural issues, and past problems. It assumes that there would not be any dramatic changes between the two countries. It is a conceptual model composed of around 200 variables, and should not be used as a forecast tool. However, it captures most of the logics discussed in the papers and conferences concerning the South and North Korea relations. Many sensitivity studies and Monte Carlo simulations have shown that the simulation results matches with mental models of experts; that is the model can be used as a learning tool or as a secondary opinion until the data required by the model is collected. In order to analyze the current situation, five scenarios are simulated and analyzed; the functional approach, the conditional approach, the balanced approach, the circumstantial approach, and the strategic approach. The functional approach represents that the South makes efforts in the area where the possibility of agreement is high for the next 10 years. The conditional approach is a scenario where the South impose all difficult issues as conditions for resolving other diplomatic issues. The balanced approach is resolving the five issues with the same priorities, while the circumstantial approach is resolving issues which seem to be resolved easily. Finally, another optimum approach has been seek using the system dynamics model developed. The optimum strategy (it is named as the strategic approach) was strikingly different from other four approaches. The optimum strategy is so complicated that no one could find it with mental model(or by just insights). Considering that the system dynamic model used to find the optimum is a simplifind (maybe over simplified) version of the reality, it is concluded that a well designed system dynamics model would be of great help to resolving the complicated diplomatic problems in any kind.

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Assessment of Expansion Characteristics and Classification of Distribution Types for Bamboo Forests Using GIS (GIS를 이용한 대나무류 분포 유형 구분 및 확산 특성 평가)

  • YOO, Byung-Oh;PARK, Joon-Hyung;PARK, Yong-Bae;JUNG, Su-Young;LEE, Kwang-Soo;KIM, Choon-Sig
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.55-64
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    • 2017
  • In order to assess the spatial and dynamic changes in bamboo forests, this study used the national-level spatial data between 1980 and 2010 to extract spatial information of bamboo forests through GIS technology. The results showed that the distribution types were mainly expansion, normal, mixed, damage, and separation. In case of mixed bamboo forest in the Sacheon region, the expansion characteristics were: area 2.5 ha, velocity 0.08 ha/yr, and distance 1.1 m/yr. The Phyllostachys pubescens forest in the Geojae region showed the following characteristics: area 1.9 ha, velocity 0.06 ha/yr, and distance 0.9 m/yr with where along from valley to ridge. This approach could provide a valuable tool for decision-making and implementations such as the bamboo forest management plan, environmental impact assessment for a preventing the bamboo expansion, and sustainable managing the bamboo resources.

Geospatial Data Display Technique for Non-Glasses Stereoscopic Monitor (무안경식 입체 모니터를 이용한 지형공간 데이터의 디스플레이 기법)

  • Lee, Seun-Geun;Lee, Dong-Cheon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.599-609
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    • 2008
  • Development of computer and electronic technology leads innovative progress in spatial informatics and successful commercialization. Geospatial information technology plays an important role in decision making in various applications. However, information display media are two-dimensional plane that limits visual perception. Understanding human visual processing mechanism to percept stereo vision makes possible to implement three-dimensional stereo image display. This paper proposes on-the-fly stereo image generation methods that are involved with various exterior and camera parameters including exposure station, viewing direction, image size, overlap and focal length. Collinearity equations and parameters related with stereo viewing conditions were solved to generate realisitc stereo imagery. In addition stereo flying simulation scenery was generated with different viewing locations and directions. The stereo viewing is based on the parallax principle of two veiwing locations. This study implemented anaglyphic stereogram, polarization and lenticular stereo display methods. Existing display technology has limitation to provide visual information of three-dimensional and dynamic nature of the real world because the 3D spatial information is projected into 2D plane. Therefore, stereo display methods developed in this study improves geospatial information and applications of GIS by realistic stereo visualization.

A Study on the Dynamic Correlations between Korean Housing Markets (국내 주택시장의 동태적 상관관계 분석)

  • Shin, Jong Hyup;Seo, Dai Gyo
    • Korea Real Estate Review
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.15-26
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    • 2014
  • Using multivariate GARCH model, we estimate the relationship between the housing sale prices and lease prices in the Korean housing market. In the analysis of relationship between the rate of changes in sale and lease prices, the correlation coefficient of the apartment and detached house is higher than that of the townhouse. By housing type, the correlation coefficient between detached house and townhouse is higher than between apartment and detached house or apartment and townhouse. By housing size, there are no significant different results between the sales price and the rental price. The correlation coefficient between medium and small size is the highest in the apartment housing market, whereas the correlation coefficient between large and medium size is the highest in the detached housing market, resulting from the fact that people may be more interested in medium- and small-sized apartment and large- and medium-sized detached house. In the detached housing market, the correlation coefficient between large-medium size and medium-small size in the rental price is higher than that of sales price. This result implies that the process of the decision making between purchasing and leasing a house might be different.

An interaction between flood and economy on socio-hydrology perspective -Case study for Yangjae River- (사회수문학적 관점에서 홍수-경제-지역사회 상호작용 -양재천 사례를 중심으로-)

  • Kang, Subin;Kim, Jin-Young;Lee, Sangeun;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.7
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    • pp.509-522
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    • 2021
  • In many countries, including Korea, it has been challenging to understand flood-related social dynamics due to urbanization and climate change. In this regard, socio-hydrology has been proposed to consider the interaction between hydrologic systems, land-use change, and human activities. However, there is a general lack of understanding of the interactions of socio-hydrologicsystems. This study examines the interactions between human activities and hydrologic systems from a sociological perspective using a dynamic system model. In other words, this study aims to present a conceptualization model that considers the mutual interaction of flood and community from a socio-hydrologic perspective. Depending on the construction cost of the levee for the Yangjae River, this study considered three scenarios to simulate the interaction of socio-hydrologic systems. Socio-hydrologic interactions can effectively reproduce the changes in the Yangjae River. Moreover, It is expected that the proposed model can be further used to understand possible hydrologic changes and interaction with social systems in the future as a decision-making tool in water resources management.