• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.30-30
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• 2023

This study aims to establish the multi-reservoir operation system model in the Upper Mun River Basin which includes 5 main dams namely, Mun Bon (MB), Lamchae (LC), Lam Takhong (LTK), Lam Phraphoeng (LPP), and Lower Lam Chiengkrai (LLCK) Dams. The knowledge and AI technology were applied aiming to develop innovative prototype for SMART dam-reservoir operation in future. Two different sorts of reservoir operation system model namely, Fuzzy Logic (FL) and Constraint Programming (CP) as well as the development of rainfall and reservoir inflow prediction models using Machine Learning (ML) technique were made to help specify the right amount of daily reservoir releases for the Royal Irrigation Department (RID). The model could also provide the essential information particularly for the Office of National Water Resource of Thailand (ONWR) to determine the short-term and long-term water resource management plan and strengthen water security against flood and drought in this region. The simulated results of base case scenario for reservoir operation in the Upper Mun from 2008 to 2021 indicated that in the same circumstances, FL and CP models could specify the new release schemes to increase the reservoir water storages at the beginning of dry season of approximately 125.25 and 142.20 MCM per year. This means that supplying the agricultural water to farmers in dry season could be well managed. In other words, water scarcity problem could substantially be moderated at some extent in case of incapability to control the expansion of cultivated area size properly. Moreover, using AI technology to determine the new reservoir release schemes plays important role in reducing the actual volume of water shortfall in the basin although the drought situation at LTK and LLCK Dams were still existed in some periods of time. Meanwhile, considering the predicted inflow and hydrologic factors downstream of 5 main dams by FL model and minimizing the flood volume by CP model could ensure that flood risk was considerably minimized as a result of new release schemes.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.56 no.12
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• pp.883-893
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• 2023

While South Korea's dependence on imported grains is very high, droughts impacts from exporting countries have been overlooked. Using the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), this study globally analyzed frequency, extent, and long-term trends of agricultural droughts and their relation to natural oscillations and global crop prices. Results showed that global-scale correlations were found between ESI and soil moisture anomalies, and they were particularly strong in crop cultivation areas. The high correlations in crop cultivation areas imply a strong land-atmosphere coupling, which can lead to relatively large yield losses with a minor soil moisture deficits. ESI showed a clear decreasing trend in crop cultivation areas from 1991 to 2022, and this trend may continue due to global warming. The sharp increases in the grain prices in 2012 and 2022 were likely related to increased drought areas in major grain-exporting countries, and they seemed to elevate South Korea's producer price index. This study suggests the need for drought risk management for grain-exporting countries to reduce socioeconomic impacts in South Korea.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.10-18
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• 2017

Korean Red Pine (Pinus densiflora) has been protected and used as the most ecologically and socio-culturally important tree species in Korea. However, as dieback of Korean red pines has occurred in the protected area of the forest genetic resources. The aims of this study is to identify causes for dieback of pine tree by investigating topographical characteristics of pine tree dieback and its correlation to meteorological factors. We extracted the dead trees from the time series aerial images and analyzed geomorphological characteristics of dead tree concentration area. As a result, 1,956 dead pine trees were extracted in the study region of 2,600 ha. Dieback of pine trees was found mostly in the areas with high altitude, high solar radiation, low topographic wetness index, south and south-west slopes, ridgelines, and high wind exposure compared to other living pine forest area. These areas are classified as high temperature and high drought stress regions due to micro-climatic characteristics affected by topographic factors. As high temperature and drought stress are generally increasing with climate change, we can evaluated that a risk of pine tree dieback is also increasing. Based on these geomorphological characteristics, we developed a pine tree dieback risk map using Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt), and it can be useful for establishing Korean red pine protection and management strategies.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.19-29
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• 2016

Disasters that occur most frequently in rural areas are drought, flood, damages from wind and cold weather. Among these, damages from storm and flood and drought are the main disasters and recently, these are occurring on a large scale due to unusual weather conditions. Under such circumstances, projects and researches on disasters in rural areas are under way but they are mostly targeting one area or making approaches focusing on repair facilities, maintenance project of facilities in small streams, and disaster management, so there have not been enough studies on the current status of overall damaged facilities in the rural areas. Against this backdrop, through the analysis of the current status of damaged facilities due to storm and flood in rural areas, this study aims to provide base data for policies needed for disaster recovery planning and maintenance work of rural areas. For the analysis of damaged facilities due to storm and flood in rural areas, using the annual report on disasters issued by Ministry of Public Safety and Security and based on the occurrence rate of estimated damage in each city and district for the past 10 years(2004~2013), 8 areas with the highest number of occurrence and cost of damage were found from each province and target areas were selected. Then, regarding the selected target areas, the General Plan for Reducing Damages from Storm and Flood, which is the report on top-level plan for preventing disasters, was secured and the current status of damaged facilities were analyzed. After organizing the analysis of current status, the tendency of damaged facilities due to storm and flood in rural areas, the items of damaged facilities depending on the types of storm and flood damages, and risk factors were suggested. Based on this result, in order to generalize the results of follow-up researches, it is thought that disaster recovery planning and establishing the system of remodeling items necessary for maintenance work would be possible by analyzing damage investigation items recorded in additional researches on rural areas, researches on natural disasters, and recovery plan instructions and by conducting on-site investigation on the damaged villages from storm and flood in rural areas.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.247-263
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• 2000

Natural catastrophe is defined as all damages caused by natural phenomenon such as typhoon, flood, inundation, windstorm, tidal wave, tremendous snowfall, drought,earthquake and to on It is classified at a huge hazard because of the large severity ofdamage In Korea, Fire Insurance policy includet the coverage clauses and rates of naturalcatastrophe like'Flood , Inundation Coverage Clause'and'Earthquake Coverage Clause'These clauses and rates do not reflect accurate risk of flood, inundation and earthauakein Korea. because those are tariff from other countries Hence, we determine the claimsize distributions and the rates for typhoon coverage and flood-inundation coverage byusing statistical methods which have not been used so far in Korean non-life insurance,and calculate appropriate premium for policyholder's interest

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2010.05a
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• pp.121-121
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• 2010

The water resources of the United States are increasingly at risk and the nation's water policy is in serious difficulty. Water resources protection laws primarily passed since 1950 often contradict water resources development laws passed before 1950. These contradictions complicate efficient and effective responses to the nation's water resources challenges including climate change, our aging infrastructures, changing population dynamics, drought, floods, wetlands and aquatic species loss, ecosystem restoration and many others. In addition, water law and policy determination, management and enforcement are so broadly distributed between, local, state and federal responsibilities that effective responses again are difficult. For example, at the national level alone, more than a dozen federal agencies have water resources responsibilities including resource development, resource assessment, and resource protection. They are presided over by six cabinet (Ministerial) departments, at least 13 congressional (parliamentarian) committees and 23 subcommittees, and are funded by five appropriations subcommittees. Lastly, good science and the public accountability associated with it are often overshadowed by political considerations at local, state and federal levels. The United States approach to solving water resources challenges is ad hoc - we address problems as they appear or as they merit political support rather than using good science to address our long term water resources needs.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.89-89
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• 2016

전 세계적으로 발생하는 기후변화로 인해 홍수, 가뭄 등과 같은 자연재해의 빈도가 높아지고 있다. 이러한 자연재해는 사회 경제적으로도 많은 피해를 유발하고 있으며, 특히 물과 관련한 자연재해는 인류의 생존과 직결되는 문제가 된다. 이중에서도 가뭄과 관련한 연구는 진행 속도가 느리고, 가뭄의 진원지나 그 경로를 파악하기 어려운 문제로 인하여 다른 연구와 비교하였을 때 상대적으로 미흡하게 진행되어 왔다. 이러한 문제점 때문에 여타의 다른 자연재해에 비해 가뭄에 대한 예측 및 대책 마련 또한 쉽지 않은 실정이다. 이에 몬테카를로 모의를 통해 미래에 발생할 수 있는 다양한 시나리오를 도출하는 확률론적 접근을 통해 좀 더 효율적이고 현실적인 대책 안을 마련할 수 있다. 본 연구의 목표는 기존 강우생성기와 증발산생성기를 결합한 일기생성기를 개발하고 이를 기후변화 시나리오에 적용하여 미래의 가뭄위험지수를 산출하는 것이다. 산출된 결과를 토대로 우리나라 전역에 대하여 준 실시간으로 갱신되는 미래가뭄위험도의 지도를 제작할 수 있다. 본 연구의 차별성은 첫 번째로 추계론적 접근을 통해 현재의 가뭄상태에 근거한 미래 가뭄에 대한 위험도를 예측할 수 있음을 들 수 있으며, 두 번째로는 지표해석모형을 활용하여 가뭄을 해석하기 때문에 유역 전반에 걸친 토양수분 뿐 만 아니라 국내 주요 댐 상류의 저수지 유입량의 불확실성을 정량화 할 수 있으며, 이는 기후변화에 따른 수자원 장기계획의 수립 및 의사결정에 있어 실용적인 정보를 제공할 수 있다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.146-146
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• 2019

The aridity index, which is determined as the ratio of potential evapotranspiration to precipitation, is one of key parameters in drought characterization. Whereas the evaporative index, which is defined as the ratio of actual evapotranspiration to precipitation, represents the fraction of available water consumed by the evapotranspiration process. This study investigates variation of the aridity and evaporative indexes due to climate change during the 21st century in South Korea. Estimations of the aridity and evaporative indexes are obtained using SWAT mode based on ensemble of 13 different GCMs over 5 large basins of South Korea for 2 RCP scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The results shows the opposite trends of the two indexes, where the aridity index is projected as always increase, while the evaporative index is expected to decrease in all of 3 future period (2011-1940, 1941-1970, 1971-2099). The estimated results also suggest that land cover influenced significantly evapotranspiration along with the change of climate. The study indicates that South Korea will be facing with a high risk of water scarcity in future due to climate change, which is seriously challenging for water planing and management in the country.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.69-80
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• 2021

This study tried to suggest improvement measures by discovering problems or matters requiring improvement among the annual regional safety evaluation systems. Briefly introducing the structure and contents of the study, which is the introduction, describes the regional safety evaluation method newly applied by the Ministry of Public Administration and Security in 2020. Utilization plans were also introduced according to the local safety level that was finally evaluated by the local government. In this paper, various views of previous researchers related to regional safety are summarized and described. In addition, problems were drawn in the composition of the index of local safety, the method of calculating the index, and the application of the current index. Next, the problems of specific regional safety evaluation indicators were analyzed and solutions were presented. First, "Number of semi-basement households" is replaced with "Number of households receiving basic livelihood" of 「Social Vulnerability Index」 in the field of disaster risk factors is replaced with "the number of households receiving basic livelihood". In addition, the "Vinyl House Area" is evaluated by replacing "the number of households living in a Vinyl House, the number of container households, and the number of households in Jjok-bang villages" with data. Second, in the management and evaluation of habitual drought disaster areas, local governments with a water supply rate of 95% or higher in Counties, Cities, and Districts are treated as "missing". This is because drought disasters rarely occur in the metropolitan area and local governments that have undergone urbanization. Third, the activities of safety sheriffs, safety monitor volunteers, and disaster safety silver monitoring groups along with the local autonomous prevention foundation are added to the evaluation of the evaluation index of 「Regional Autonomous Prevention Foundation Activation」 in the field of response to disaster prevention measures. However, since the name of the local autonomous disaster prevention organization may be different for each local government, if it is an autonomous disaster prevention organization organized and active for disaster prevention, it would be appropriate to evaluate the results by summing up all of its activities. Fourth, among the Scorecard evaluation items, which is a safe city evaluation tool used by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction(UNDRR), the item "preservation of natural buffers to strengthen the protection functions provided by natural ecosystems" is borrowed, which is closely related to natural disasters. The Scorecard evaluation is an assessment index that focuses on improving the disaster resilience of local governments while carrying out the campaign "Creating cities resilient to climate crises and disasters" emphasized by UNDRR. Finally, the names of "regional safety level" and "local safety index" are similar, so the term of local safety level is changed to "natural disaster safety level" or "natural calamity safety level". This is because only the general public can distinguish the local safety level from the local safety index.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.20 no.5
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• pp.5-12
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• 2019

On November 15, 2017, a unpredictable liquefaction damage was occurred at the $M_L=5.4$ Pohang earthquake and after, many researches have been conducted in Korea. In Korea, where there were no cases of earthquake damage, it has been extremely neglectable in preparing earthquake risk maps and building earthquake systems that corresponded to prevention and preparation. Since it is almost impossible to observe signs and symptoms of drought, floods, and typhoons in advance, it is very effective to predict the impacts and magnitudes of seismic events. In this study, 14,040 borehole data were collected in the metropolitan area and liquefaction evaluation was performed using the amplification factor. Based on this data, liquefaction hazard maps were prepared for ground accelerations of 0.06 g, 0.14 g, 0.22 g, and 0.30 g, including 200years return period to 4,800years return period. Also, the correlation analysis between the earthquake acceleration and LPI was carried out to draw a real-time predictable liquefaction hazard map. As a result, 707 correlation equations in every cells in GIS map were proposed. Finally, the simulation for liquefaction risk mapping against artificial earthquake was performed in the metropolitan area using the proposed correlation equations.