• Title/Summary/Keyword: drought assessment

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Intercomparison of Change Point Analysis Methods for Identification of Inhomogeneity in Rainfall Series and Applications (강우자료의 비동질성 규명을 위한 변동점 분석기법의 상호비교 및 적용)

  • Lee, Sangho;Kim, Sang Ug;Lee, Yeong Seob;Sung, Jang Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.8
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    • pp.671-684
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    • 2014
  • Change point analysis is a efficient tool to understand the fundamental information in hydro-meteorological data such as rainfall, discharge, temperature etc. Especially, this fundamental information to change points to future rainfall data identified by reasonable detection skills can affect the prediction of flood and drought occurrence because well detected change points provide a key to resolve the non-stationary or inhomogeneous problem by climate change. Therefore, in this study, the comparative study to assess the performance of the 3 change point detection skills, cumulative sum (CUSUM) method, Bayesian change point (BCP) method, and segmentation by dynamic programming (DP) was performed. After assessment of the performance of the proposed detection skills using the 3 types of the synthetic series, the 2 reasonable detection skills were applied to the observed and future rainfall data at the 5 rainfall gauges in South Korea. Finally, it was suggested that BCP (with 0.9 posterior probability) could be best detection skill and DP could be reasonably recommended through the comparative study. Also it was suggested that BCP (with 0.9 posterior probability) and DP detection skills to find some change points could be reasonable at the North-eastern part in South Korea. In future, the results in this study can be efficiently used to resolve the non-stationary problems in hydrological modeling considering inhomogeneity or nonstationarity.

Assessment of domestic water supply potential of agricultural reservoirs in rural area considering economic index (경제성 지표를 활용한 농업용저수지의 생활용수 공급가능성 평가)

  • Yoon, Kwang-Sik;Choi, Soo-Myung;Chai, Jong-Hun;Yoo, Seung-Hwan;Choi, Dong-Ho;Yoon, Suk-Gun;Lee, Chang-Hee;Jung, Kyung-Hun;Shin, Gil-Chai
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.85-96
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    • 2017
  • Existing agricultural reservoirs are considered as alternative source for the water welfare of rural area. In this study, domestic water supply potential of 476 reservoirs, which has storage capacity more than one million cubic meter, out of 3,377 agricultural reservoirs managed by Korean Rural Community Corporation (KRC) were investigated. Among them water quality of 136 reservoirs met the criteria of domestic water source which show less than COD 3 ppm. Available amount for domestic water of reservoirs, which meet the water quality, for ten year return period of drought was analyzed with reservoir water balance model. The results showed that 116 reservoirs has potential for supplementary domestic water supply while satisfying irrigation water supply. Finally, economic analysis using Net Present Value (NPV), Benefit-Cost (B/C) ratio, Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Profitability Index (PI) methods was also conducted. The analysis showed that 19 reservoirs satisfied economic feasibility when water is provided from reservoir outlet but only 9 reservoirs meet the economic feasibility if water delivered from a reservoir to treatment plant by newly built conveyance canal. In order to supply the domestic water through the agricultural reservoirs managed by KRC, it is necessary to flexibly interpret and operate the 'Rearrangement of Agricultural and Fishing village Act'. Also, it is reasonable to participate in the water service business when there is a supply request from other Ministries. In addition, the KRC requires further effort to change the crop system for saving water and improve efficiency of irrigation systems.

Impact of Changes in Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Change Under Climate Change Scenario on Streamflow in the Basin (기후변화 시나리오하의 기후 및 토지피복 변화가 유역 내 유출량에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Jin Soo;Choi, Chul Uong
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.107-116
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    • 2013
  • This study is intended to predict variations in future land use/land cover(LULC) based on the representation concentration pathway(RCP) storyline that is a new climate change scenario and to analyze how future climate and LULC changes under RCP scenario affects streamflow in the basin. This study used climate data under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 and LULC change scenario is created by a model that is developed using storyline of RCP 4.5 and 8.5 and logistic regression(LR). Two scenarios(climate change only and LULC change only) were established. The streamflow in future periods under these scenarios was simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model. Each scenario showed a significant seasonal variations in streamflow. Climate change showed that it reduced streamflow in summer and autumn while it increased streamflow in spring and winter. Although LULC change little affected streamflow in the basin, the pattern for increasing and decreasing streamflow during wet and dry climate condition was significant. Therefore, it's believed that sustainable water resource policies for flood and drought depending on future LULC are required.

Assessment of fish stocks and economic value in accordance with fishway renovation: Case study of Samcheokoshipcheon0010 Weir (어도 개보수에 따른 어류 자원량 및 경제적 가치 평가: 삼척오십천 사례)

  • Moon, Woon-Ki;Bae, Dae-Yeul;Kim, Do-Hyun;Shin, Hyun-Beom;Suh, Jung Bin;Lim, Kyeong Hun;Lee, Eui-Haeng;Yoo, Jae-Sang;An, Kwang-Guk;Kim, Jai-Ku
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.30-39
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    • 2020
  • The changes in fish stock and biomass before and after fishway renovation located in a Korean estuary were studied and fluctuations in the economic value of the fish resources were estimated. The target fishway located in the east coast area in Korea was renovated in 2014 from the small fish ladder to the ice-harbor fishway. Monitoring was continued for five consecutive years after the renovation(2015 to 2019). Since the renovation of the fish passage, the economic values increased with increases in the fishery resources, except for in 2016 when the drought impact was severe. The yearly average incremental increase in the five years after the renovation was about 227%. The increase in economic value is believed to be due to the increased population of migratory fish as a result of habitat expansion. The exponential rise model showed an increase in economic value with increasing fishery resources (R2=0.896). The model coefficient contributing to economic analysis was 0.582 and the maximum economic value after the renovation was estimated at about 30.4 million. The economic value would be a useful index for quantitative comparison in terms of ecosystem services before and after renovation.

Water Quality Assessment by Algal Growth Potential (AGP) from Midstream to Downstream of the Kum River (금강 중 ${\cdot}$ 하류에서 AGP에 의한 수질평가)

  • Cho, Kyung-Je;Shin, Jae-Ki
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.33 no.3 s.91
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    • pp.244-250
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    • 2000
  • Algal growth potential (AGP) bioassay were conducted to assess the water quality and fertility in the Kum River from March 1998 to June 1999. AGP values were always the highest at the conjuction site of the Kapchon, which is a tributary of the Kum River. Average value of AGP by Microcystis aeruginosa in the main river and tributary was 17.0 mg dw/l, 48.3 mg dw/l, respectively. AGP values decreased towards the lower part of the river and consisted in the water quality or nutrient analysisresults. Among the tributaries, AGP of the Kapchon, Mihochon and Soksongchon were relatively high, and the average value was 161.2, 50.3 and 125.6 mg dw/l, respectively. AGP value in the Yukuchon was lowest among the study stations with <2.7 mg dw/l. Water quality in the lower part of the Kum River deteriorated in drought season, and the AGP values of this season were higher than those in other seasons. Based on correlation analysis between AGP results and nutrients, limiting nutrient appeared to be P because SRP (r = 0.99) was higher than other nutrients, and N uptake in algal growth was preferred by $NH_4$ rather than $NO_3$. The variation of AGP was different according to localities and seasons, and it was related to nutrient fluctuation in the inlet tributary. Water quality status according to AGP was assessed to be eutrophic.

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Prediction of SWAT Stream Flow Using Only Future Precipitation Data (미래 강수량 자료만을 이용한 SWAT모형의 유출 예측)

  • Lee, Ji Min;Kum, Donghyuk;Kim, Young Sug;Kim, Yun Jung;Kang, Hyunwoo;Jang, Chun Hwa;Lee, Gwan Jae;Lim, Kyoung Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.88-96
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    • 2013
  • Much attention has been needed in water resource management at the watershed due to drought and flooding issues caused by climate change in recent years. Increase in air temperature and changes in precipitation patterns due to climate change are affecting hydrologic cycles, such as evaporation and soil moisture. Thus, these phenomena result in increased runoff at the watershed. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been used to evaluate rainfall-runoff at the watershed reflecting effects on hydrology of various weather data such as rainfall, temperature, humidity, solar radiation, wind speed. For bias-correction of RCP data, at least 30 year data are needed. However, for most gaging stations, only precipitation data have been recorded and very little stations have recorded other weather data. In addition, the RCP scenario does not provide all weather data for the SWAT model. In this study, two scenarios were made to evaluate whether it would be possible to estimate streamflow using measured precipitation and long-term average values of other weather data required for running the SWAT. With measured long-term weather data (scenario 1) and with long-term average values of weather data except precipitation (scenario 2), the estimate streamflow values were almost the same with NSE value of 0.99. Increase/decrease by ${\pm}2%$, ${\pm}4%$ in temperature and humidity data did not affect streamflow. Thus, the RCP precipitation data for Hongcheon watershed were bias-corrected with measured long-term precipitation data to evaluate effects of climate change on streamflow. The results revealed that estimated streamflow for 2055s was the greatest among data for 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s. However, estimated streamflow for 2085s decreased by 9%. In addition, streamflow for Spring would be expected to increase compared with current data and streamflow for Summer will be decreased with RCP data. The results obtained in this study indicate that the streamflow could be estimated with long-term precipitation data only and effects of climate change could be evaluated using precipitation data as shown in this study.

Analysis on the Water Footprint of Crystalline Silicon PV System (결정질 실리콘 태양광시스템의 물 발자국 산정에 대한 연구)

  • Na, Won-Cheol;Kim, Younghwan;Kim, Kyung Nam;Lee, Kwan-Young
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.449-456
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    • 2014
  • There has been increasing concerns for the problems of water security in countries, caused by the frequent occurrence of localized drought due to the climate change and uncertainty of water balance. The importance of fresh water is emphasized as considerable amount of usable fresh water is utilized for power generation sector producing electricity. PV power system, the source of renewable energy, consumes water for the every steps of life cycle: manufacturing, installation, and operation. However, it uses relatively less water than the traditional energy sources such as thermal power and nuclear power sources. In this study, to find out the use of water for the entire process of PV power system from extracting raw materials to operating the system, the footprint of water in the whole process is measured to be analyzed. Measuring the result, the PV water footprint of value chain was $0.989m^3/MWh$ and the water footprint appeared higher specially in poly-Si and solar cell process. The following two reasons explain it: poly-Si process is energy-intensive process and it consumes lots of cooling water. In solar cell process, deionized water is used considerably for washing a high-efficiency crystalline silicon. It is identified that PV system is the source using less water than traditional ones, which has a critical value in saving water. In discussing the future energy policy, it is vital to introduce the concept of water footprint as a supplementary value of renewable energy.

Sustainable Water Resources Planning to Prevent Streamflow Depletion in an Urban Watershed: 1. Methodology (도시유역의 건천화 방지를 위한 지속가능한 수자원 계획: 1. 방법론)

  • Lee, Kil-Seong;Cung, Eun-Sung;Kim, Young-Oh;Cho, Tak-Gun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.11 s.172
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    • pp.935-946
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    • 2006
  • This study proposed a new procedure of sustainable water resources planning to prevent the urban streamflow depletion, based on the Heathcote's study in 1998: (1) to understand the watershed component and processes, (2) to identify and quantify problems within the watershed, (3) to set clear and specific goals, (4) to develop a list of management options, (5) to eliminate infeasible options, (6) to test the effectiveness of remaining feasible options, and (7) to develop the final options. PSR(Presure-State-Response) concept was used for the determination of indicators of PSD(Potential Streamflow Depletion; step 2) and effect equation (step 7) and composite programming for the calculation of PSD. The instreamflow requirement was proposed as clear and specific goal (step 3) and was determined by the larger of the PHABSIM's environmental flow and the drought flow. A continuous rainfall-runoff model is necessary to test the effectiveness of alternatives. It should estimate not only the exact runoff but also the effect of landuse change, reservoir, infiltration facility and so on like SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool). The proposed procedure will be applied on the corresponding paper.

Analysis of Village Safety Index using Accessibility to Public Facilities (공공시설 접근성을 통한 마을단위 안전지수 분석)

  • Jeon, Jeongbae;Kim, Solhee;Suh, Kyo;Yoon, Seongsoo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.121-129
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    • 2016
  • A disaster can be defined in many ways based on perspectives, in addition, its types are able to classify differently by various standards. Considering the different perspectives, the disaster can be occurred by natural phenomenon that is like typhoon, earthquake, flood, and drought, and by the accident that is like collapse of facilities, traffic accidents, and environmental pollution, etc. Into the modern society, moreover, the disaster includes the damages by diffusion of epidemic and infectious disease in domestic animals. The disaster was defined by natural and man-made hazards in the past. As societies grew with changes of paradigm, social factors have been included in the concept of the disaster according to new types unexpected by new disease and scientific technology. Change the concept of social disasters, Ministry of Public Safety and Security (MPSS) has provided the regional safety index, which measures the safety level of a local government. However, this regional safety index has some limitation to use because this index provides the information for city unit which is a unit of administrative districts of urban. Since these administrative districts units are on a different level with urban and rural areas, the regional safety index provided by MPSS is not be able to direct apply to the rural areas. The purpose of this study is to determine the regional safety index targeting rural areas. To estimate the safety index, we was used for 3 indicators of the MPSS, a fire, a crime, and an infectious disease which are evaluable the regional safety index using an accessibility analysis. For determining the regional safety index using accessibility from community centers to public facilities, the safety index of fire, crime, and infectious disease used access time to fire station, police office, and medical facility, respectively. An integrated Cheongju, targeting areas in this study, is mixed region with urban and rural areas. The results of regional safety index about urban and rural areas, the safety index in rural area is relatively higher than in the urban. Neverthless the investment would be needed to improve the safety in the rural areas.

Algal Growth Potential Test (AGPT) in the Stream- Reservoir System of the Pyeongtaek Reservoir Watershed, Korea (평택호와 유역 하천에서 조류생장잠재력측정)

  • Hwang, Soon-Jin;Shin, Jae-Ki
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.36 no.2 s.103
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    • pp.172-180
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    • 2003
  • For a biological assessment of Pyeongtaek Reservoir and its major influent streams, an algal growth potential test (AGPT) was conducted with the blue-green algae Microcystis aeruginosa in March, June, September and December, 2000. The range and average value of AGPT were from 0 to 463 mg dw/l and 90 mg dw/l, respectively. For the influent streams in particular, the average of AGPT was the in the Hwangguchi Stream (343 mg dw/l). It decreased to 158, 66, 29, 21, and 21 mg dw/l in the Sojong Stream, Songhwan Stream, Osan Stream, Chinwi Stream, and Ansong Stream, respectively. The AGPT values in the reservoir ranged from 0 to 138 mg dw/1(mean 54 mg dw/1) with a tendency to increase in the upstream, which was close to the influent streams. In general, the AGPT values decreased further in the downstream. Immediately after the abrupt increase in influent discharge in summer, the AGPT value in the downstream almost doubled due to the proliferation of blue-green algae. The water quality of Pyeongtaek Reservoir and its influent streams further deteriorated during the drought period. Similarly, the AGPT value was the highest during this period. The AGPT values showed the closest correlation with the content of P (r = 0.999, p<0,001). Thus, it could be concluded that the content of P is highly effective in the growth of algae. In the Pyeongtaek Reservoir Watershed, the AGPT values varied in space and time. It was also closely related to the nutrient content of influent streams. The AGPT values revealed that the water quality state was hypertrophic (> 20 mg dw/1). Thus, control of the aquatic environment is essential. AGPT is very useful in evaluating the fertility and pollution state of the water as well as determining the nutrients that limit the growth of algae.