• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.208-217
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• 2023

Accurate estimation of dormancy breaking and first bloom dates is crucial for effective fire blight control by disease model such as Maryblyt in apple orchards. The duration from dormancy breaking to first bloom in apple trees was influenced by daily minimum temperatures during the dormant period. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between minimum temperatures during this period and the time taken for flowering to commence. Webcam data from eight apple orchards, equipped by the National Institute of Horticultural and Herbal Science, were observed from 2019 to 2023 to determine the dates of starting bloom (B1). Additionally, the dormancy breaking dates for these eight sites were estimated using an apple chill day model, with a value of -100.5 DD, based on collected weather data. Two regressions were performed to analyze the relationships: the first regression between the number of days under 0℃ (X₁) and the time from calculated dormancy breaking to observed first bloom (Y), resulting in Y = 0.87 × X₁ + 40.76 with R² = 0.84. The second regression examined the starting date of breaking dormancy (X₂) and the duration from dormancy breaking to observed first bloom (Y), resulting in Y = -1.07 × X₂ + 143.62 with R² = 0.92. These findings suggest that apple anti-chill days are significantly affected by minimum temperatures during the period from dormancy breaking to flowering, indicating their importance in fire blight control measures.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.185-191
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• 2005

An accurate prediction of dormancy release and bud burst in temperate zone fruit trees is indispensable for farmers to plan heating time under partially controlled environments as well as to reduce the risk of frost damage in open fields. A thermal time-based two-step phenological model that originated in Italy was applied to two important grapevine cultivars in Korea for predicting bud-burst dates. The model consists of two sequential periods: a rest period described by chilling requirement and a forcing period described by heating requirement. It requires daily maximum and minimum temperature as an input and calculates daily chill units (chill days in negative sign) until a pre-determined chilling requirement for rest release is met. After the projected rest release date, it adds daily heat units (anti-chill days in positive sign) to the chilling requirement. The date when the sum reaches zero isregarded as the bud-burst in the model. Controlled environment experiments using field sampled twigs of 'Campbell Early' and 'Kyoho' cultivars were carried out in the vineyard at the National Horticultural Research Institute (NHRI) in Suwon during 2004-2005 to derive the model parameters: threshold temperature for chilling and chilling requirement for breaking dormancy. The model adjusted with the selected parameters was applied to the 1994-2004 daily temperature data obtained from the automated weather station in the NHRI vineyard to estimate bud burst dates of two cultivars and the results were compared with the observed data. The model showed a consistently good performance in predicting the bud burst of 'Campbell Early' and 'Kyoho' cultivars with 2.6 and 2.5 days of root mean squared error, respectively.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.1-9
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• 2006

Regardless of the recent observed warmer winters in Korea, more freeze injuries and associated economic losses are reported in fruit industry than ever before. Existing freeze-frost forecasting systems employ only daily minimum temperature for judging the potential damage on dormant flowering buds but cannot accommodate potential biological responses such as short-term acclimation of plants to severe weather episodes as well as annual variation in climate. We introduce 'dormancy depth', in addition to daily minimum temperature, as a complementary criterion for judging the potential damage of freezing temperatures on dormant flowering buds of grape vines. Dormancy depth can be estimated by a phonology model driven by daily maximum and minimum temperature and is expected to make a reasonable proxy for physiological tolerance of buds to low temperature. Dormancy depth at a selected site was estimated for a climatological normal year by this model, and we found a close similarity in time course change pattern between the estimated dormancy depth and the known cold tolerance of fruit trees. Inter-annual and spatial variation in dormancy depth were identified by this method, showing the feasibility of using dormancy depth as a proxy indicator for tolerance to low temperature during the winter season. The model was applied to 10 vineyards which were recently damaged by a cold spell, and a temperature-dormancy depth-freeze injury relationship was formulated into an exponential-saturation model which can be used for judging freeze risk under a given set of temperature and dormancy depth. Based on this model and the expected lowest temperature with a 10-year recurrence interval, a freeze risk probability map was produced for Hwaseong County, Korea. The results seemed to explain why the vineyards in the warmer part of Hwaseong County have been hit by more freeBe damage than those in the cooler part of the county. A dormancy depth-minimum temperature dual engine freeze warning system was designed for vineyards in major production counties in Korea by combining the site-specific dormancy depth and minimum temperature forecasts with the freeze risk model. In this system, daily accumulation of thermal time since last fall leads to the dormancy state (depth) for today. The regional minimum temperature forecast for tomorrow by the Korea Meteorological Administration is converted to the site specific forecast at a 30m resolution. These data are input to the freeze risk model and the percent damage probability is calculated for each grid cell and mapped for the entire county. Similar approaches may be used to develop freeze warning systems for other deciduous fruit trees.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.213-220
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• 2009

In order to predict the risk of freeze injury for 'Changhowon Hwangdo' peach trees, we used the dormancy depth (i.e., the daily chill unit accumulation during the overwintering period) as a proxy for the short-term, physiological tolerance to freezing temperatures. A Chill-days model was employed and its parameters such as base temperature and chilling requirement were optimized for peach trees based on the 12 observational experiments during the 2008-2009 winter. The model predicted the flowering dates much closer to the observations than other models without considering dormancy depth, showing the strength of employing dormancy depth into consideration. To derive empirical equations for calculating the probabilistic freeze risk, the dormancy depth was then combined with the browning ratio and the budburst ratio of frozen peach fruit branches. Given the exact date and the predicted minimum temperature, the equations calculate the probability of freeze damages such as a failure in budburst or tissue browning. This method of employing dormancy depth in addition to freezing temperature would be useful in locating in advance the risky areas of freezing injury for peach trees production under the projected climate change.

• Horticultural Science & Technology
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• v.31 no.6
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• pp.666-676
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• 2013

The study was carried out to examine the initial point of dormancy, breaking time of internal dormancy, and to find out the accumulated hours of low temperature (under $7.2^{\circ}C$ from $0.0^{\circ}C$ to $7.2^{\circ}C$) for bud-breaking. Over-all, the chilling requirement for breaking of internal dormancy in the commercial apple cultivars ('Fuji' and 'Tsugaru') and apple cultivars bred in Korea ('Hongro', 'Sunhong', 'Honggeum', 'Hongan', 'Hongso', 'Gamhong', 'Summer dream') at the Gunwi region for 4 years (from 2009 to 2012) was investigated. Also, the breaking time of internal dormancy in the field at the Gunwi region and the breaking time of dormancy if air temperature of Gunwi region rises $4^{\circ}C$ higher than the current one were investigated using the same data. The initial point of dormancy was set at the time when the lateral bud breaking did not occurred (when heading back cutting was done in the middle of terminal shoots). The occurrence of the breaking of internal dormancy was decided if the breaking of the terminal bud of bourse shoot occurred within 15 days or not in growth chamber. About 100 bourse shoots were collected by cultivar classification in early December every year and were stored at $5.0^{\circ}C$, and they were placed in growth chamber at one week interval. The chilling requirement of cultivars was expressed in accumulated hours in the field and in the growth chamber under $7.2^{\circ}C$ and $0.0-7.2^{\circ}C$ from the initial point of dormancy to the breaking time of internal dormancy. The results showed that the initial point of dormancy in selected cultivars could occur at the end of September. The breaking time of internal dormancy could occur from the end of January to the early of February. The accumulated hours under $7.2^{\circ}C$ for breaking of internal dormancy were 1,600-2,000 hours, while those of $0.0-7.2^{\circ}C$ were 1,300-1,800 hours. In comparing the different apple cultivars, the chilling requirement of the early flowering cultivars seemed lower than that of the late-flowering cultivars. Based on these results, if the air temperature of Gunwi region rises about $4.0^{\circ}C$ higher than the current one, the breaking time of internal dormancy will be delayed by 2-4 weeks.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.58-64
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• 2008

This study was carried out to determine the availability of development rate(DVR) model for predicting bud break time of 'Niitaka' pear. In addition, the study also assessed the effect of an increase in temperature on predicting bud dormancy breaking time in winter season. The DVR model, which was developed for 'Kosui' pear, illustrated that the bud break time(e.g., Dec. 12-Dec. 19) of 'Niitaka' pear observed in the field corresponded to the predicted bud break time by DVR model. This result indicates that the bud break time of 'Niitaka' pear can be predicted by DVR model tuned for 'Kosui' pear. As the temperature increased during the winter season, the bud break time was delayed. Chilling requirement deficiency for the bud break time is expected in Jeju Province when the temperature increased above $4^{\circ}C$ in winter season.

• Horticultural Science & Technology
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.501-510
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• 2015

In this study, we investigated the onset and release of endo-dormancy under natural conditions by observing bud break characteristics in 'Fuji' apple trees using water cuttings. Through examinations of bud break rate and days to bud break, we found that the endo-dormancy of 'Fuji' apple tree continues for 70 d from 165 to 255 d after full bloom (DAFB), from late October to early January of the following year. In addition, within 20 d of first bud break, based on a final bud break rate of 60% or more, we able to identify the timing of the changeover from para-dormancy to endo-dormancy, and endo-dormancy to eco-dormancy. Analysis of the chilling requirement during the endo-dormancy period revealed that chilling accumulation up to 255 DAFB to release endo-dormancy amounted to 666 and 517 h based on the CH and Utah models, respectively. Observation of internal changes in the bud during endo-dormancy showed that flower bud differentiation begins from mid-July, and t ime of inflorescence o f the disk f lower is a vailable to f ind. The f lower buds subsequently developed slowly but steadily during endo-dormancy and in the following year in February, the developmental stage of each organ had progressed. Moreover, the flower buds of 'Fuji' apples were mostly healthy during the dormancy period, but some exhibited necrosis of flower primordium, due partial cell damage from the formation of ice crystals rather than a direct effect of the low temperature. Flower buds were formed in both the axillary buds of bourse shoots and terminal buds of spurs, but lower bud differentiation was observed for the terminal buds of spurs at rate of about 65% of total buds, which was directly related to the bud size and shoot diameter.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.116-124
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• 2006

Remarkable winter season warming has been observed in East Asian countries during the last century. Accordingly, significant effects on dormancy and the resulting budburst of deciduous trees are expected. However phenological observations are rare and insufficient compared with the long-time climate records in the same region. A chill-day accumulation, which can be estimated from daily maximum and minimum temperature, is expected to make a reasonable proxy for dormancy depth of temperate zone fruit trees. To simulate dormancy depth during 1921-2004, a chill-day model parameterized for 'Campbell Early' grapevine, which is the major cultivar grown virtually anywhere in South Korea, was applied to daily temperature data at 8 locations in South Korea. The calculations showed that the chilling requirement for breaking endo-dormancy of this grapevine cultivar can be satisfied by mid-January to late February in South Korea, and the date was delayed going either northward or southward from the 'Daegu-Jeonju' line crossing the middle of South Korea in the east-west direction. Maximum length of the cold tolerant period (the number of days between endo-dormancy release and forced dormancy release) showed the same spatial pattern. When we divide the 83 years into 3 periods (I: 1921-1950, II: 1951-1980, and III: 1981-2004) and get the average of each period, dormancy release date of period III was accelerated by as much as 15 days compared with that of period I at all locations except Jeju (located in the southernmost island with subtropical climate) where an average15-day delay was predicted. The cold- tolerant period was also shortened at 6 out of 8 locations. As a result, budburst of 'Campbell Early' in spring was accelerated by 6 to 10 days at most locations, while inter-annual variation in budburst dates was increased at all locations. The earlier budburst after the 1970s was due to (1) warming in winter resulting in earlier dormancy release (Incheon, Mokpo, Gangneung, and Jeonju), (2) warming in early spring accelerating regrowth after breaking dormancy (Busan and Jeju), and (3) both of them (Seoul and Daegu).

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.94-101
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• 2008

Warming trends during winter seasons in East Asian regions are expected to accelerate in the future according to the climate projection by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Warmer winters may affect short-term cold hardiness of deciduous fruit trees, and yet phenological observations are scant compared to long-term climate records in the regions. Dormancy depth, which can be estimated by daily temperature, is expected to serve as a reasonable proxy for physiological tolerance of flowering buds to low temperature in winter. In order to delineate the geographical pattern of short-term cold hardiness in grapevines, a selected dormancy depth model was parameterized for "Campbell Early", the major cultivar in South Korea. Gridded data sets of daily maximum and minimum temperature with a 270m cell spacing ("High Definition Digital Temperature Map", HDDTM) were prepared for the current climatological normal year (1971-2000) based on observations at the 56 Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) stations and a geospatial interpolation scheme for correcting land surface effects (e.g., land use, topography, and site elevation). To generate relevant datasets for climatological normal years in the future, we combined a 25km-resolution, 2011-2100 temperature projection dataset covering South Korea (under the auspices of the IPCC-SRES A2 scenario) with the 1971-2000 HD-DTM. The dormancy depth model was run with the gridded datasets to estimate geographical pattern of change in the cold-hardiness period (the number of days between endo- and forced dormancy release) across South Korea for the normal years (1971-2000, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100). Results showed that the cold-hardiness zone with 60 days or longer cold-tolerant period would diminish from 58% of the total land area of South Korea in 1971-2000 to 40% in 2011-2040, 14% in 2041-2070, and less than 3% in 2071-2100. This method can be applied to other deciduous fruit trees for delineating geographical shift of cold-hardiness zone under the projected climate change in the future, thereby providing valuable information for adaptation strategy in fruit industry.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.11-18
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• 2012

Daily temperature data produced by harmonic analysis of monthly climate summary have been used as an input to plant phenology model. This study was carried out to evaluate the performance of the harmonic based daily temperature data in prediction of major phenological developments and to apply the results in improving decision support for agricultural production in relation to the climate change scenarios. Daily maximum and minimum temperature data for a climatological normal year (Jan. 1 to Dec. 31, 1971-2000) were produced by harmonic analysis of the monthly climate means for Seoul weather station. The data were used as inputs to a thermal time - based phenology model to predict dormancy, budburst, and flowering of Japanese cherry in Seoul. Daily temperature measurements at Seoul station from 1971 to 2000 were used to run the same model and the results were compared with the harmonic data case. Leaving no information on annual variation aside, the harmonic based simulation showed 25 days earlier release from endodormancy, 57 days longer period for maximum cold tolerance, delayed budburst and flowering by 14 and 13 days, respectively, compared with the simulation based on the observed data. As an alternative to the harmonic data, 30 years daily temperature data were generated by a stochastic process (SIMMETEO + WGEN) using climatic summary of Seoul station for 1971-2000. When these data were used to simulate major phenology of Japanese cherry for 30 years, deviations from the results using observed data were much less than the harmonic data case: 6 days earlier dormancy release, 10 days reduction in maximum cold tolerance period, only 3 and 2 days delay in budburst and flowering, respectively. Inter-annual variation in phenological developments was also in accordance with the observed data. If stochastically generated temperature data could be used in agroclimatic mapping and zoning, more reliable and practical aids will be available to climate change adaptation policy or decision makers.