• Title/Summary/Keyword: distributed-lag model

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Impact of Debts on Economic Growth of Bangladesh: An Application of ARDL Model

  • Hossain, Muhammad Amir;Shirin, Shabnam
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2016
  • This study attempts to investigate the effects of different types of debts on economic growth in Bangladesh using time series data spanning from 2000 to 2015. In this study, the RDL model has been applied to determine the long run relationship among the selected variables. The result of the ARDL model shows that there exists a long term relationship between economic growth and the debt variables. It was evident from the findings that there exists bidirectional causality between public sector external debt and economic growth. Causality between private external debt and economic growth has been found to be insignificant. However, causality between domestic debt and economic growth showed a unidirectional causality from domestic debt to economic growth and not vice versa. Causality tests suggest that impact of domestic debt on economic growth is more effective compared to external debts.

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Asymmetric Transmission between Producer and Wholesale Prices in Farmed Olive Flounder Market (양식넙치 산지-도매가격간 비대칭적 가격전이 분석)

  • Lee, Heon-Dong;Ma, Chang-Mo
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.69-83
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate whether asymmetric price transmission exists in the distribution stage of farmed olive flounder market. For the analysis, time series data were used for the producer prices of Jeju and Wando, and the wholesale prices of Incheon, Hanam and Busan. Through the Granger causality test, the causal relationship from the producer price to the wholesale price was derived and the asymmetric price transmission was analyzed using the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). As a result of the analysis, it was found that there is a phenomenon of 'positive asymmetric price transmission' from the producer price to the wholesale price. This result can be one evidence that excess profits are received in the intermediate distribution stage, and can be said to be a result showing the incompleteness and inefficiency of the distribution structure of the farmed olive flounder. In the future, it is required to establish an information-sharing system in all stages of production, distribution, and consumption that can create a competitive environment for distribution participants and resolve information asymmetry. Also, it is necessary to review the distribution center specializing in live fish from the viewpoint of the establishment of new distribution channels and sales diversification strategy under the rapidly changing fisheries environment.

Hygrothermal effect on the moisture absorption in composite laminates with transverse cracks and delamination

  • Kesba, Mohamed Khodjet;Benkhedda, A.;Adda bedia, E.A.;Boukert, B.
    • Advances in aircraft and spacecraft science
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.315-331
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    • 2019
  • The stiffness degradation of the cross-ply composite laminates containing a transverse cracking and delamination in $90^{\circ}$ layer is predicted by using a modified shear-lag model by introducing the stress perturbation function. The prediction shows better agreement with the experimental results published by Ogihara and Takeda 1995, especially for laminates with thicker $90^{\circ}$ plies in which extensive delamination occurs. A homogenised analytic model for average transient moisture uptake in composite laminates containing periodically distributed matrix cracks and delamination is presented. It is shown that the model well describes the moisture absorption in a cross-ply composite laminate containing periodically distributed transverse matrix cracks in the $90^{\circ}$ plies. The obtained results represent well the dependence of the stiffness degradation on the crack density, thickness ratio and moisture absorption. The present study has proved to be important to the understanding of the degradation of the material propertiesin the failure process when the laminates in which the delamination grows extensively.

LONG-TERM STREAMFLOW SENSITIVITY TO RAINFALL VARIABILITY UNDER IPCC SRES CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO

  • Kang, Boo-sik;Jorge a. ramirez, Jorge-A.-Ramirez
    • Water Engineering Research
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.81-99
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    • 2004
  • Long term streamflow regime under virtual climate change scenario was examined. Rainfall forecast simulation of the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM2) of the Canadian Climate Center for modeling and analysis for the IPCC SRES B2 scenario was used for analysis. The B2 scenario envisions slower population growth (10.4 billion by 2010) with a more rapidly evolving economy and more emphasis on environmental protection. The relatively large scale of GCM hinders the accurate computation of the important streamflow characteristics such as the peak flow rate and lag time, etc. The GCM rainfall with more than 100km scale was downscaled to 2km-scale using the space-time stochastic random cascade model. The HEC-HMS was used for distributed hydrologic model which can take the grid rainfall as input data. The result illustrates that the annual variation of the total runoff and the peak flow can be much greater than rainfall variation, which means actual impact of rainfall variation for the available water resources can be much greater than the extent of the rainfall variation.

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Impact of International Trade Cooperation and Distribution on Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from Vietnam

  • NGUYEN, Chi Dieu Thi
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.77-83
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: This study aims to find the impact of international trade cooperation and distribution on foreign direct investment (FDI). The study also tests the impact of lag variables of trade cooperation and distribution on FDI in the future. Research design, data, and methodology: Autoregressive Distributed Lag model is applied to analyze the impact of chosen variables such as total trade (TRADE), trade openness (OPEN), the exchange rate (EXR), inflation (INF), and gross domestic growth (GDP) on FDI. Quarterly data is collected from Vietnam General Statistic Office, Vietnam General Department of Customs, International Monetary Fund, and The World Bank from 2006 to 2020. Stata 14 software is used to analyze the regression and test variables. Results: The findings indicate that TRADE, OPEN, INF, GDP, and their lags affect both positively and negatively on FDI in different periods. While OPEN still expresses an unclear impact on FDI. Moreover, this study proves that the FDI of a nation is influenced by international cooperation. Conclusions: This study indicates the importance of international trade cooperation and distribution in not only attracting foreign investment sources but also developing the economy. Findings are necessary bases for governments or authorities in signing international trade agreements in the future.

Evaluation and Comparison of the Low-Frequency Oscillation Damping Methods for the Droop-Controlled Inverters in Distributed Generation Systems

  • Tao, Yong;Deng, Yan;Li, Guangdi;Chen, Guipeng;He, Xiangning
    • Journal of Power Electronics
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.731-747
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    • 2016
  • The droop-based control strategy is widely applied in the interfacing inverters for distributed generation. This can be a problem since low-frequency stability issues may be encountered in droop-based microgrid. The objective of this paper is to classify, evaluate and compare various low-frequency damping methods. First, low-frequency stability problems are analyzed and an equivalent model of a droop-controlled inverter is investigated to classify the damping methods into the source-type damping strategies and the impedance-type damping strategies. Moreover, the lead-lag compensation network insertion control is proposed as a beneficial part of the source-type damping strategies. Then, the advantages and disadvantages of the different types of damping methods are theoretically evaluated and experimentally tested. Furthermore, the damping methods are comprehensively compared to illustrate the application field of each method. Finally, the synthesis of different damping methods to enhance the low-frequency stability is discussed and experimental validation is presented.

Flood Runoff Simulation using Radar Rainfall and Distributed Hydrologic Model in Un-Gauged Basin : Imjin River Basin (레이더 강우와 분포형 수문모형을 이용한 미계측 유역의 홍수 유출모의: 임진강 유역)

  • Kim, Byung-Sik;Bae, Young-Hye;Park, Jung-Sool;Kim, Kyung-Tak
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.52-67
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    • 2008
  • Recently, frequent occurrence of flash floods caused by climactic change has necessitated prompt and quantitative prediction of precipitation. In particular, the usability of rainfall radar that can carry out real-time observation and prediction of precipitation behavior has increased. Moreover, the use of distributed hydrological model that enables grid level analysis has increased for an efficient use of rainfall radar that provides grid data at 1km resolution. The use of distributed hydrologic model necessitates grid-type spatial data about target basins; to enhance reliability of flood runoff simulation, the use of visible and precise data is necessary. In this paper, physically based $Vflo^{TM}$ model and ModClark, a quasi-distributed hydrological model, were used to carry out flood runoff simulation and comparison of simulation results with data from Imjin River Basin, two-third of which is ungauged. The spatial scope of this study was divided into the whole Imjin River basin area, which includes ungauged area, and Imjin River basin area in South Korea for which relatively accurate and visible data are available. Peak flow and lag time outputs from the two simulations of each region were compared to analyze the impact of uncertainty in topographical parameters and soil parameters on flood runoff simulation and to propose effective methods for flood runoff simulation in ungauged regions.

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The Dynamic Analysis between Environmental Quality, Energy Consumption, and Income (소득 및 에너지소비와 환경오염의 관계에 대한 분석)

  • Jung, Sukwan;Kang, Sangmok
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.97-122
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    • 2013
  • The ARDL(Autoregressive Distributed Lag) method is employed analyzes the long-run equilibrium relationships among environmental pollution($CO_2$ emissions) per capita, income levels per capita, and energy consumption per capita. The error correction model is employed to analyze the short-term effects of income and energy consumption on $CO_2$ emissions. The Toda-Yammamoto method is employed for causal analysis among the three variables. The results show that income levels, energy consumption, and $CO_2$ emissions are cointegrated. We found the N type relationship between income and $CO_2$ emissions. Long-term elasticities of income and energy consumption with respect to $CO_2$ emission were greater than their short-term elasticities. There were a bilateral causality between energy consumption and $CO_2$ emissions. There was a unilateral causality from $CO_2$ emissions to income and from energy consumption to income not vice versa. Energy consumption can be an important variable to contribute to forecasting $CO_2$ emissions.

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The Impact of Nuclear Power Generation on Wholesale Electricity Market Price (원자력발전이 전력가격에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Jung, Sukwan;Lim, Nara;Won, DooHwan
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.629-655
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    • 2015
  • Nuclear power generation is a major power source which accounts for more than 30% of domestic electricity generation. Electricity market needs to secure stability of base load. This study aimed at analyzing relationships between nuclear power generation and wholesale electricity price (SMP: System Marginal Price) in Korea. For this we conducted ARDL(Autoregressive Distributed Lag) approach and Granger causality test. We found that in terms of total effects nuclear power supply had a positive relationship with SMP while nuclear capacity had a negative relationship with SMP. There is a unidirectional Granger causality from nuclear power supply to SMP while the reverse was not. Nuclear power is closely related to SMP and provides useful information for decision making.

An Empirical Analysis on the Determinants for Industrial Markup in the Korean Service Industries Using the ADL Scheme (자기회귀모형을 이용한 서비스산업의 마크업 결정요인에 관한 실증분석)

  • Hua, Zhu Yan;Park, Sehoon;Jung, Yong Sik
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.87-96
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    • 2014
  • Since markup is defined as price over marginal cost by Hall(1988), the New Keynesians have intensively applied its definition in elucidating the relationship between market structure and business cycle. In lots of literatures markups proved to be counter cyclical empirically and theoretically. At the same time many studies analysed the determinants for markup in relation with business cycles. This paper establishes the markup equation based on the constant returns to scale production function including intermediate goods with technology being assumed to be AR(1) process and estimates the industrial markups in the Korean 5 service industries over the period 1975:1-2010:4. The paper also analyzed the markup determinants using the autoregressive distributed lag scheme ADL(1,1) in which the dependent variable and the single explanatory variable are each lagged once.