• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.38 no.3
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• pp.105-131
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• 2022

Even after the improvement in 2019, UNCTAD's Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI), which evaluates the performance of the global container port market, has limited use. In particular, since the liner shipping connectivity index evaluates the performance based only on the distance of the relationship, the performance index combining the port attractiveness of calling would be more efficient. This study used the modified Huff model, the hub-authority algorithm and the eigenvector centrality of social network analysis, and correlation analysis for 2007, 2017, and 2019 data of Ocean-Commerce, Japan. The findings are as follows: Firstly, the port attractiveness of calling and the overall performance of the port did not always match. However, according to the analysis of the attractiveness of a port calling, Busan remained within the top 10. Still, the attractiveness among other Korean ports improved slowly from the low level during the study period. Secondly, Global container ports are generally specialized for long-term specialized inbound and outbound ports by the route and grow while maintaining professionalism throughout the entire period. The Korean ports continue to change roles from analysis period to period. Lastly, the volume of cargo by period and the extended port connectivity index (EPCI) presented in this study showed a correlation from 0.77 to 0.85. Even though the Atlantic data is excluded from the analysis and the ship's operable capacity is used instead of the port throughput volume, it shows a high correlation. The study result would help evaluate and analyze global ports. According to the study, Korean ports need a long-term strategy to improve performance while maintaining professionalism. In order to maintain and develop the port's desirable role, it is necessary to utilize cooperation and partnerships with the complimentary port and attract shipping companies' services calling to the complementary port. Although this study carried out a complex analysis using a lot of data and methodologies for an extended period, it is necessary to conduct a study covering ports around the world, a long-term panel analysis, and a scientific parameter estimation study of the attractiveness analysis.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.647-658
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• 2021

In this study, the change of temperature, chemical composition, and helium gas of thermal water in Pohang area was observed from January 2018 to June 2019 in order to interpret the relationship with earthquake events. During observation period earthquakes above M 2.0 within 100 km in a radius from a geothermal well occurred 58 including two earthquake events with a magnitude of 3.0~3.9 and two earthquake events with a magnitude of 4.0~4.9. We introduce a q-factor and earthquake effectiveness (ε) to express the influence of each earthquake as magnitude and distance factors. The geothermal well of 715 m deep was developed in the Bulguksa biotite granite, and the water temperature was observed in the variation from 51.8 to 56.3℃ during monitoring period. At M 4.1 and M 4.6 earthquake events, the increase of geothermal water temperature (𝜟T 2.6~4.5℃) was recorded, and slight change in specific ionic components such as SO₄ and Cl, and of chemical types on the Piper diagram were observed. In the ³He/⁴He vs ⁴He/²⁰Ne diagram, the original mixing ratio of helium isotope before and after the magnitude 4.1 earthquake was slightly changed from 83.0% to 83.2% of crust-origin ⁴He, and the from 16.3% to 16.7% of mantle-origin ³He. Hot-cold water mixing ratio before and after earthquakes by using the quartz and chalcedony solubility curves of the silica-enthalpy mixing model was calculated to interpret the temperature change of geothermal water. The model calculation shows the increase of 6.93~7.72% and 1.65~4.94% of hot water ratio at E1 and E2 earthquakes, respectively. Conclusively, the magnitude of earthquake for observable change in the temperature and helium isotope of thermal water is of 4.1 or higher and q-factor value of 30.0 or higher in the study site.

• Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.18-30
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• 2023

Submarine mud volcanos are topographic features that resemble volcanoes, and are formed due to eruptions of fluidized or gasified sediment material. They have gained attention as a source of subsurface heat, sediment, or hydrocarbons supplied to the surface. In the continental slope of the Canadian Beaufort Sea, mud volcano exists at various water depths. The MV420, is an active mud volcano erupting at a water depth of 420 meters, and it has been the subject of extensive study. The Korea Polar Research Institute(KOPRI) collected high-resolution seismic data and heat flow data around the caldera of the mud volcano. By analyzing the multi-channel seismic data, we confirmed the reverse-polarity reflector assumed by a gas hydrate-related bottom simulating reflector(BSR). To further elucidate the relationship between the BSR and gas hydrates, as well as the thermal structure of the mud volcano, a numerical geothermal model was developed based on the steady-state heat equation. Using this model, we estimated the base of the gas hydrate stability zone and found that the BSR depth estimated by multi-channel seismic data and the bottom of the gas hydrate stability zone were in good agreement., This suggests the presence of gas hydrates, and it was determined that the depth of the gas hydrate was likely up to 50 m, depending on the distance from the mud conduit. Thus, this depth estimate slightly differs from previous studies.

• Journal of Popular Narrative
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.217-247
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• 2019

This research paper intends to examine the intertextuality of Klaus Mann's novel Mephisto (1936) and István Szabó's film Mephisto (1981) and how the derivative contents (i.e., film) accepted and improved the schematic aesthetics of conviction in original contents (i.e., novel). In general, the aesthetics of conviction is applied to criticize the state socialism of the artists of the Third Reich or the ideology of the artists of East Germany from a biased ethical perspective. Mephisto is also based on the aesthetics of conviction. Thus, it would be meaningful to examine the characteristic similarity and difference between Klaus Mann's real antagonist (i.e., Gustaf Gründgens) and fictional antagonist (i.e., Hendrik Höfgen) from a historical critical perspective. In this process, an aesthetic distance between the real and fictional antagonists would be secured through the internal criticism in terms of intertextuality. In this respect, the film aesthetics of István Szabó are deemed to overcome the schematic limit of the original novel. The conviction in both the novel and film of Mephisto pertains to the belief and stance of a person who compromised with the state socialism of Nazi Germany, i.e., succumbed to the irresistible history. Klaus Mann denounced Mephisto's character Höfgen (i.e., Gründgens in reality) as an "Mephisto with evil spirits" from the perspective of exile literature. For such denunciation, Klaus Mann used various means such as satire, caricature, sarcasm, parody and irony. However, his novel is devoid of introspection and "utopianism", and thus could be considered to allow personal rights to be disregarded by the freedom of art. On the contrary, István Szabó employed the two different types of evil (evil of Mephisto and evil of Faust) from a dualistic perspective (instead of a dichotomous perspective of good and evil) by expressing the character of Höfgen like both Mephisto and Hamlet (i.e., "Faust with both good and evil spirits). However, Szabó did not present the mixed character of "Mephisto and Hamlet (Faust)" only as an object of pity. Rather, Szabó called for social responsibility by showing a much more tragic end. As such, the novel Mephisto is more like the biography of an individual, and the film Mephisto is more like the biography of a generation. The aesthetics of conviction of Mephisto appears to overcome biased historical and textual perspectives through the irony of intertextuality between the novel and the film. Even if history is an irresistible "fate" to an individual, human dignity cannot be denied because it is the "value of life". The issue of conviction is not only limited to the times of Nazi Germany. It can also be raised with the ideology of the modern and contemporary history of Korea. History is so deeply rooted that it should not be criticized merely from a dichotomous perspective. When it comes to the relationship between history and individual life, a neutral point of view is required. Hopefully, this research paper will provide readers with a significant opportunity for finding out their "inner Mephisto" and "inner Hamlet."

• Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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• v.37 no.6
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• pp.439-449
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• 2023

This study was conducted to verify the role of forest roads in the extinction of large forest fires in Korea. The study area was the forest fire-damaged area of Gangneung City, Gangwon Special Self-Governing Province, in April 2023, which is one of the areas with the highest road density among the major forest fires that have occurred so far. The scope of the forest fire damage area was confirmed through on-site survey, and the intensity of the fire was carried out through Sentinel-2 satellite imagery analysis. After that, the relationship between the damage range and intensity and the forest road was examined. About 59.6 km of roads were built within 50 m from the boundary of the forest fire damage area, which can easily access the entire 149.1 ha of forest fire damaged area. The road density is as high as 168.9 m/ha. All forests that were fragmented by roads were fragmented into 83 places, and all of these forests could be judged to have spread by spotting fire. As a result of analyzing the distribution of damage intensity by distance from the road to see the extent of damage according to the ease of access of fire extinguishing vehicles, it was confirmed that the proportion of areas with low-intensity damage has increased sharply even from 75 m or more away from the road. The results of analyzing the distribution of damage intensity by altitude to see the extent of damage according to the ease of access of fire extinguishing showed that the proportion of areas with low-intensity damage increased as the altitude increased, while the proportion of areas with damage of more than strong intensity decreased as the altitude increased. It was confirmed that there is no data that roads inside or adjacent to forests in the forest fire area of Gangneung City are effective in extinguishing forest fires. These results are contrary to the logic that increasing the road density in forests is effective in extinguishing forest fires. In the case of this fire area in Gangneung City, the road density is 43 times higher than the current road density in Korea claimed by the Korea Forest Service of 3.9 m/ha. This study suggests that roads can be a hindrance to extinguishing forest fires.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.227-252
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• 2018

The evolution of instant communication has mirrored the development of the Internet and messenger applications are among the most representative manifestations of instant communication technologies. In messenger applications, senders use emoticons to supplement the emotions conveyed in the text of their messages. The fact that communication via messenger applications is not face-to-face makes it difficult for senders to communicate their emotions to message recipients. Emoticons have long been used as symbols that indicate the moods of speakers. However, at present, emoticon-use is evolving into a means of conveying the psychological states of consumers who want to express individual characteristics and personality quirks while communicating their emotions to others. The fact that companies like KakaoTalk, Line, Apple, etc. have begun conducting emoticon business and sales of related content are expected to gradually increase testifies to the significance of this phenomenon. Nevertheless, despite the development of emoticons themselves and the growth of the emoticon market, no suitable emoticon recommendation system has yet been developed. Even KakaoTalk, a messenger application that commands more than 90% of domestic market share in South Korea, just grouped in to popularity, most recent, or brief category. This means consumers face the inconvenience of constantly scrolling around to locate the emoticons they want. The creation of an emoticon recommendation system would improve consumer convenience and satisfaction and increase the sales revenue of companies the sell emoticons. To recommend appropriate emoticons, it is necessary to quantify the emotions that the consumer sees and emotions. Such quantification will enable us to analyze the characteristics and emotions felt by consumers who used similar emoticons, which, in turn, will facilitate our emoticon recommendations for consumers. One way to quantify emoticons use is metadata-ization. Metadata-ization is a means of structuring or organizing unstructured and semi-structured data to extract meaning. By structuring unstructured emoticon data through metadata-ization, we can easily classify emoticons based on the emotions consumers want to express. To determine emoticons' precise emotions, we had to consider sub-detail expressions-not only the seven common emotional adjectives but also the metaphorical expressions that appear only in South Korean proved by previous studies related to emotion focusing on the emoticon's characteristics. We therefore collected the sub-detail expressions of emotion based on the "Shape", "Color" and "Adumbration". Moreover, to design a highly accurate recommendation system, we considered both emotion-technical indexes and emoticon-emotional indexes. We then identified 14 features of emoticon-technical indexes and selected 36 emotional adjectives. The 36 emotional adjectives consisted of contrasting adjectives, which we reduced to 18, and we measured the 18 emotional adjectives using 40 emoticon sets randomly selected from the top-ranked emoticons in the KakaoTalk shop. We surveyed 277 consumers in their mid-twenties who had experience purchasing emoticons; we recruited them online and asked them to evaluate five different emoticon sets. After data acquisition, we conducted a factor analysis of emoticon-emotional factors. We extracted four factors that we named "Comic", Softness", "Modernity" and "Transparency". We analyzed both the relationship between indexes and consumer attitude and the relationship between emoticon-technical indexes and emoticon-emotional factors. Through this process, we confirmed that the emoticon-technical indexes did not directly affect consumer attitudes but had a mediating effect on consumer attitudes through emoticon-emotional factors. The results of the analysis revealed the mechanism consumers use to evaluate emoticons; the results also showed that consumers' emoticon-technical indexes affected emoticon-emotional factors and that the emoticon-emotional factors affected consumer satisfaction. We therefore designed the emoticon recommendation system using only four emoticon-emotional factors; we created a recommendation method to calculate the Euclidean distance from each factors' emotion. In an attempt to increase the accuracy of the emoticon recommendation system, we compared the emotional patterns of selected emoticons with the recommended emoticons. The emotional patterns corresponded in principle. We verified the emoticon recommendation system by testing prediction accuracy; the predictions were 81.02% accurate in the first result, 76.64% accurate in the second, and 81.63% accurate in the third. This study developed a methodology that can be used in various fields academically and practically. We expect that the novel emoticon recommendation system we designed will increase emoticon sales for companies who conduct business in this domain and make consumer experiences more convenient. In addition, this study served as an important first step in the development of an intelligent emoticon recommendation system. The emotional factors proposed in this study could be collected in an emotional library that could serve as an emotion index for evaluation when new emoticons are released. Moreover, by combining the accumulated emotional library with company sales data, sales information, and consumer data, companies could develop hybrid recommendation systems that would bolster convenience for consumers and serve as intellectual assets that companies could strategically deploy.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.47-73
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• 2020

KTX rolling stocks are a system consisting of several machines, electrical devices, and components. The maintenance of the rolling stocks requires considerable expertise and experience of maintenance workers. In the event of a rolling stock failure, the knowledge and experience of the maintainer will result in a difference in the quality of the time and work to solve the problem. So, the resulting availability of the vehicle will vary. Although problem solving is generally based on fault manuals, experienced and skilled professionals can quickly diagnose and take actions by applying personal know-how. Since this knowledge exists in a tacit form, it is difficult to pass it on completely to a successor, and there have been studies that have developed a case-based rolling stock expert system to turn it into a data-driven one. Nonetheless, research on the most commonly used KTX rolling stock on the main-line or the development of a system that extracts text meanings and searches for similar cases is still lacking. Therefore, this study proposes an intelligence supporting system that provides an action guide for emerging failures by using the know-how of these rolling stocks maintenance experts as an example of problem solving. For this purpose, the case base was constructed by collecting the rolling stocks failure data generated from 2015 to 2017, and the integrated dictionary was constructed separately through the case base to include the essential terminology and failure codes in consideration of the specialty of the railway rolling stock sector. Based on a deployed case base, a new failure was retrieved from past cases and the top three most similar failure cases were extracted to propose the actual actions of these cases as a diagnostic guide. In this study, various dimensionality reduction measures were applied to calculate similarity by taking into account the meaningful relationship of failure details in order to compensate for the limitations of the method of searching cases by keyword matching in rolling stock failure expert system studies using case-based reasoning in the precedent case-based expert system studies, and their usefulness was verified through experiments. Among the various dimensionality reduction techniques, similar cases were retrieved by applying three algorithms: Non-negative Matrix Factorization(NMF), Latent Semantic Analysis(LSA), and Doc2Vec to extract the characteristics of the failure and measure the cosine distance between the vectors. The precision, recall, and F-measure methods were used to assess the performance of the proposed actions. To compare the performance of dimensionality reduction techniques, the analysis of variance confirmed that the performance differences of the five algorithms were statistically significant, with a comparison between the algorithm that randomly extracts failure cases with identical failure codes and the algorithm that applies cosine similarity directly based on words. In addition, optimal techniques were derived for practical application by verifying differences in performance depending on the number of dimensions for dimensionality reduction. The analysis showed that the performance of the cosine similarity was higher than that of the dimension using Non-negative Matrix Factorization(NMF) and Latent Semantic Analysis(LSA) and the performance of algorithm using Doc2Vec was the highest. Furthermore, in terms of dimensionality reduction techniques, the larger the number of dimensions at the appropriate level, the better the performance was found. Through this study, we confirmed the usefulness of effective methods of extracting characteristics of data and converting unstructured data when applying case-based reasoning based on which most of the attributes are texted in the special field of KTX rolling stock. Text mining is a trend where studies are being conducted for use in many areas, but studies using such text data are still lacking in an environment where there are a number of specialized terms and limited access to data, such as the one we want to use in this study. In this regard, it is significant that the study first presented an intelligent diagnostic system that suggested action by searching for a case by applying text mining techniques to extract the characteristics of the failure to complement keyword-based case searches. It is expected that this will provide implications as basic study for developing diagnostic systems that can be used immediately on the site.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.155-175
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• 2017

As social data become into the spotlight, mainstream web search engines provide data indicate how many people searched specific keyword: Web Search Traffic data. Web search traffic information is collection of each crowd that search for specific keyword. In a various area, web search traffic can be used as one of useful variables that represent the attention of common users on specific interests. A lot of studies uses web search traffic data to nowcast or forecast social phenomenon such as epidemic prediction, consumer pattern analysis, product life cycle, financial invest modeling and so on. Also web search traffic data have begun to be applied to predict tourist inbound. Proper demand prediction is needed because tourism is high value-added industry as increasing employment and foreign exchange. Among those tourists, especially Chinese tourists: Youke is continuously growing nowadays, Youke has been largest tourist inbound of Korea tourism for many years and tourism profits per one Youke as well. It is important that research into proper demand prediction approaches of Youke in both public and private sector. Accurate tourism demands prediction is important to efficient decision making in a limited resource. This study suggests improved model that reflects latest issue of society by presented the attention from group of individual. Trip abroad is generally high-involvement activity so that potential tourists likely deep into searching for information about their own trip. Web search traffic data presents tourists' attention in the process of preparation their journey instantaneous and dynamic way. So that this study attempted select key words that potential Chinese tourists likely searched out internet. Baidu-Chinese biggest web search engine that share over 80%- provides users with accessing to web search traffic data. Qualitative interview with potential tourists helps us to understand the information search behavior before a trip and identify the keywords for this study. Selected key words of web search traffic are categorized by how much directly related to "Korean Tourism" in a three levels. Classifying categories helps to find out which keyword can explain Youke inbound demands from close one to far one as distance of category. Web search traffic data of each key words gathered by web crawler developed to crawling web search data onto Baidu Index. Using automatically gathered variable data, linear model is designed by multiple regression analysis for suitable for operational application of decision and policy making because of easiness to explanation about variables' effective relationship. After regression linear models have composed, comparing with model composed traditional variables and model additional input web search traffic data variables to traditional model has conducted by significance and R squared. after comparing performance of models, final model is composed. Final regression model has improved explanation and advantage of real-time immediacy and convenience than traditional model. Furthermore, this study demonstrates system intuitively visualized to general use -Youke Mining solution has several functions of tourist decision making including embed final regression model. Youke Mining solution has algorithm based on data science and well-designed simple interface. In the end this research suggests three significant meanings on theoretical, practical and political aspects. Theoretically, Youke Mining system and the model in this research are the first step on the Youke inbound prediction using interactive and instant variable: web search traffic information represents tourists' attention while prepare their trip. Baidu web search traffic data has more than 80% of web search engine market. Practically, Baidu data could represent attention of the potential tourists who prepare their own tour as real-time. Finally, in political way, designed Chinese tourist demands prediction model based on web search traffic can be used to tourism decision making for efficient managing of resource and optimizing opportunity for successful policy.

• Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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• 1995.02a
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• pp.101-113
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• 1995

The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.