• Title/Summary/Keyword: discounted cost distribution

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A Simulation Study on The Discounted Cost Distribution under Age Replacement Policy

  • Dohi, Tadashi;Ashioka, Akira;Kaio, Naoto;Osaki, Shunji
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.134-139
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    • 2004
  • During the last three decades, a few attentions have been paid for investigating the cost distribution for the optimal maintenance problems. In this article, we derive the moment of the discounted cost distribution over an infinite time horizon for the basic age replacement problem. With first two moments of the discounted cost distribution, we approximate the underlying distribution function by three theoretical distributions. Through a Monte Carlo simulation, we conclude that the log-normal distribution is the best fitted one to approximate the discounted cost distribution.

An Economic Analysis of Potential Cost Savings from the Use of Low Voltage DC (LVDC) Distribution Network

  • Hur, Don;Baldick, Ross
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.812-819
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    • 2014
  • The proposed technical work attempts to compare the two key technologies of power distribution, i.e. direct current (DC) and alternating current (AC) in a fiscal manner. The DC versus AC debate has been around since the earliest days of electric power. Here, at least four types of a low voltage DC (LVDC) distribution are examined as an alternative to the existing medium voltage AC (MVAC) distribution with an economic assessment technique for a project investment. Besides, the sensitivity analysis will be incorporated in the overall economic analysis model to cover uncertainties of the input data. A detailed feasibility study indicates that many of the common benefits claimed for an LVDC distribution will continue to grow more profoundly as it is foreseen to arise with the increased integration of renewable energy sources and the proliferation of energy storage associated with the enhanced utilization of uninterruptible power supply (UPS) systems.

A Techno-Economic Feasibility Analysis on LVDC Distribution System for Rural Electrification in South Korea

  • Afamefuna, David;Chung, Il-Yop;Hur, Don;Kim, Ju-Yong;Cho, Jintae
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.1501-1510
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    • 2014
  • Low voltage direct current (LVDC) distribution system is a suitable techno-economic candidate which can create an innovative solution for distribution network development with respect to rural electrification. This research focuses on the use of LVDC distribution system to replace some of KEPCO's existing traditional medium voltage alternating current (MVAC) distribution network for rural electrification in South Korea. Considering the technical and economic risks and benefits involved in such project, a comparative techno-economic analysis on the LVDC and the MVAC distribution networks is conducted using economic assessment method such as the net present value (NPV) on a discounted cash flow (DCF) basis as well as the sensitivity analysis technique. Each would play a role in an economic performance indicator and a measure of uncertainty and risk involved in the project. In this work, a simulation model and a computational tool are concurrently developed and employed to aid the techno-economic analysis, evaluation, and estimation of the various systems efficiency and/or performance.

Game Theoretic Analysis of the Mobile Discount Service of the Offline Retailers (오프라인 소매점의 모바일 할인 서비스에 대한 전략적 분석)

  • Cho, Hyung-Rae;Rhee, Minho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.47-55
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    • 2016
  • The proliferation of the Internet and related technologies has led to a new form of distribution channels, namely online retailers. The conventional offline and the new online retailers have different transaction costs perceived by the consumers in the following perspectives: the accessibility to the product information, the traffic cost and the opportunity cost for the time to visit the store, the delivery time and the possibility of 'touch and feel' to test the quality of the product. In particular, the online retailers have lower distribution cost structure in that they do not have physical stores, which results in lower selling price. Thus they continuously offer price competition against offline retailers using the lower selling cost as competitive weapon. Moreover the emergence of the social commerce is likely to intensify the competition between the online and offline retailers. To survive in this fierce competition, the offline retailers are trying to defend their business interests by sticking to offline transaction in anticipation of increased customer loyalty, customer's preference for 'touch and feel' style shopping, and others. Despite of these efforts, customers who touch and feel a product in an offline store but purchase the product through an online retailer are increasing. To protect such customers, recently, some of the offline retailers began to provide the mobile discount service (MDS) which enables the offline customers to purchase a product at a discounted price through the mobile applications. In business competitions, the price discount strategy is usually considered to secure more market share at the cost of lower profit. In this study, however, we analyze the effect of MDS as a weapon for securing more profit. To do this, we set up a game model between the online and offline retailers which incorporates the effect of the MDS. By numerically analyzing the Nash equilibrium of the game, some managerial implications for using the MDS for more profit are discussed.

Presort and Loading of Commercial Bulk Mails for Minimizing Mailing Fees (우편 발송 비용 최소화를 위한 상업용 다량 우편물 선구분 적재)

  • Lim, Seung-Kil;Kim, Jae-Gon;Shin, Yong-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.8-16
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    • 2013
  • We consider a problem of presort and loading of commercial bulk mails in a mailing service. Here, presort is the process by which a mailer prepares mail so that it is sorted to at least the finest extent required by the mailing service provider for the (discounted) price claimed. The problem is formulated as a special type of transportation problem. To solve industrial-sized problems, we develop an efficient heuristic algorithm and perform experimental tests on randomly generated problem instances. Results of the tests show that mailers can save mailing cost much more when they use small-sized mail trays with less frequent mailings. Also, large-sized mailers can obtain much more cost saving than small-sized mailers. In addition, cost saving effect is influenced by delivery area distribution of mails and fluctuation of mailing demand.

Development of Stochastic Decision Model for Estimation of Optimal In-depth Inspection Period of Harbor Structures (항만 구조물의 최적 정밀점검 시기 추정을 위한 추계학적 결정모형의 개발)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2016
  • An expected-discounted cost model based on RRP(Renewal Reward Process), referred to as a stochastic decision model, has been developed to estimate the optimal period of in-depth inspection which is one of critical issues in the life-cycle maintenance management of harbor structures such as rubble-mound breakwaters. A mathematical model, which is a function of the probability distribution of the service-life, has been formulated by simultaneously adopting PIM(Periodic Inspection and Maintenance) and CBIM(Condition-Based Inspection and Maintenance) policies so as to resolve limitations of other models, also all the costs in the model associated with monitoring and repair have been discounted with time. From both an analytical solution derived in this paper under the condition in which a failure rate function is a constant and the sensitivity analyses for the variety of different distribution functions and conditions, it has been confirmed that the present solution is more versatile than the existing solution suggested in a very simplified setting. Additionally, even in that case which the probability distribution of the service-life is estimated through the stochastic process, the present model is of course also well suited to interpret the nonlinearity of deterioration process. In particular, a MCS(Monte-Carlo Simulation)-based sample path method has been used to evaluate the parameters of a damage intensity function in stochastic process. Finally, the present stochastic decision model can satisfactorily be applied to armor units of rubble mound breakwaters. The optimal periods of in-depth inspection of rubble-mound breakwaters can be determined by minimizing the expected total cost rate with respect to the behavioral feature of damage process, the level of serviceability limit, and the consequence of that structure.

Optimizing Total Transport Cost Incurred under Specific Port System: With a Case of Managing POSCO-owned Berths (특수항만구조하에서의 물류비용 최적화에 관한 연구 - 포항제철의 원료부두 사례를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Weon-Jae
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.42-55
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    • 2010
  • This paper primarily deals with a decision-making for determining the number of voyages in each ship size under a specific port structure in order to minimize the total transport cost consisting of transport cost at sea, queuing cost in port, and inventory cost in yard. As a result of computer simulation using queuing model characterized by inter-arrival time distribution, we were able to find out some combination of voyage numbers of 3 ship-size(50,000-ton, 100,000-ton, and 200,000-ton), where the total transport cost can be minimized under a specific port structure. The simulation model also allows us to figure out any trade-off relationship among sea transport cost, queuing cost in port, and inventory cost in yard. Put it differently, an attempt to reduce the sea transport cost by increasing the number of voyages of the largest ship size, the transport cost incurred in both port and yard is hypothesized to be increased and vice versa. Consequently, Port managers are required to adjust the number of annual number of voyages allocated in each ship size, put into the sea lines for importing raw materials, in order to optimize the transport costs incurred under the specific port system. We may consider a net present value(NPV) model for performing an economic feasibility analysis on port investment project. If a total discounted net benefit, including cost savings, exceeds the initial investment for an additional berth construction, then we accept the port investment project. Otherwise, we reject the proposed port investment plan.

A Study on the Critical Success Factors of Social Commerce through the Analysis of the Perception Gap between the Service Providers and the Users: Focused on Ticket Monster in Korea (서비스제공자와 사용자의 인식차이 분석을 통한 소셜커머스 핵심성공요인에 대한 연구: 한국의 티켓몬스터 중심으로)

  • Kim, Il Jung;Lee, Dae Chul;Lim, Gyoo Gun
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.211-232
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    • 2014
  • Recently, there is a growing interest toward social commerce using SNS(Social Networking Service), and the size of its market is also expanding due to popularization of smart phones, tablet PCs and other smart devices. Accordingly, various studies have been attempted but it is shown that most of the previous studies have been conducted from perspectives of the users. The purpose of this study is to derive user-centered CSF(Critical Success Factor) of social commerce from the previous studies and analyze the CSF perception gap between social commerce service providers and users. The CSF perception gap between two groups shows that there is a difference between ideal images the service providers hope for and the actual image the service users have on social commerce companies. This study provides effective improvement directions for social commerce companies by presenting current business problems and its solution plans. For this, This study selected Korea's representative social commerce business Ticket Monster, which is dominant in sales and staff size together with its excellent funding power through M&A by stock exchange with the US social commerce business Living Social with Amazon.com as a shareholder in August, 2011, as a target group of social commerce service provider. we have gathered questionnaires from both service providers and the users from October 22, 2012 until October 31, 2012 to conduct an empirical analysis. We surveyed 160 service providers of Ticket Monster We also surveyed 160 social commerce users who have experienced in using Ticket Monster service. Out of 320 surveys, 20 questionaries which were unfit or undependable were discarded. Consequently the remaining 300(service provider 150, user 150)were used for this empirical study. The statistics were analyzed using SPSS 12.0. Implications of the empirical analysis result of this study are as follows: First of all, There are order differences in the importance of social commerce CSF between two groups. While service providers regard Price Economic as the most important CSF influencing purchasing intention, the users regard 'Trust' as the most important CSF influencing purchasing intention. This means that the service providers have to utilize the unique strong point of social commerce which make the customers be trusted rathe than just focusing on selling product at a discounted price. It means that service Providers need to enhance effective communication skills by using SNS and play a vital role as a trusted adviser who provides curation services and explains the value of products through information filtering. Also, they need to pay attention to preventing consumer damages from deceptive and false advertising. service providers have to create the detailed reward system in case of a consumer damages caused by above problems. It can make strong ties with customers. Second, both service providers and users tend to consider that social commerce CSF influencing purchasing intention are Price Economic, Utility, Trust, and Word of Mouth Effect. Accordingly, it can be learned that users are expecting the benefit from the aspect of prices and economy when using social commerce, and service providers should be able to suggest the individualized discount benefit through diverse methods using social network service. Looking into it from the aspect of usefulness, service providers are required to get users to be cognizant of time-saving, efficiency, and convenience when they are using social commerce. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the usefulness of social commerce through the introduction of a new management strategy, such as intensification of search engine of the Website, facilitation in payment through shopping basket, and package distribution. Trust, as mentioned before, is the most important variable in consumers' mind, so it should definitely be managed for sustainable management. If the trust in social commerce should fall due to consumers' damage case due to false and puffery advertising forgeries, it could have a negative influence on the image of the social commerce industry in general. Instead of advertising with famous celebrities and using a bombastic amount of money on marketing expenses, the social commerce industry should be able to use the word of mouth effect between users by making use of the social network service, the major marketing method of initial social commerce. The word of mouth effect occurring from consumers' spontaneous self-marketer's duty performance can bring not only reduction effect in advertising cost to a service provider but it can also prepare the basis of discounted price suggestion to consumers; in this context, the word of mouth effect should be managed as the CSF of social commerce. Third, Trade safety was not derived as one of the CSF. Recently, with e-commerce like social commerce and Internet shopping increasing in a variety of methods, the importance of trade safety on the Internet also increases, but in this study result, trade safety wasn't evaluated as CSF of social commerce by both groups. This study judges that it's because both service provider groups and user group are perceiving that there is a reliable PG(Payment Gateway) which acts for e-payment of Internet transaction. Accordingly, it is understood that both two groups feel that social commerce can have a corporate identity by website and differentiation in products and services in sales, but don't feel a big difference by business in case of e-payment system. In other words, trade safety should be perceived as natural, basic universal service. Fourth, it's necessary that service providers should intensify the communication with users by making use of social network service which is the major marketing method of social commerce and should be able to use the word of mouth effect between users. The word of mouth effect occurring from consumers' spontaneous self- marketer's duty performance can bring not only reduction effect in advertising cost to a service provider but it can also prepare the basis of discounted price suggestion to consumers. in this context, it is judged that the word of mouth effect should be managed as CSF of social commerce. In this paper, the characteristics of social commerce are limited as five independent variables, however, if an additional study is proceeded with more various independent variables, more in-depth study results will be derived. In addition, this research targets social commerce service providers and the users, however, in the consideration of the fact that social commerce is a two-sided market, drawing CSF through an analysis of perception gap between social commerce service providers and its advertisement clients would be worth to be dealt with in a follow-up study.