• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.11 no.10
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• pp.55-62
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• 2013

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to suggest a risk factor that significantly explains foreign currency risk premia. In recent years, some studies have found that the performance of the simultaneous consumption risk model improves considerably when tested on foreign currency portfolios, which are constructed based on the international interest rates differentials. However, this paper focuses on the long-run consumption risk factor. In our empirical research, we found that the real excess returns of high interest rate currency portfolios depreciate on average, when the future American long-run consumption growth rate appears low. This makes the high interest rate currency portfolios have relatively high risk premia. Meanwhile, the real excess returns of low interest rate currency portfolios appreciate on average, under the same conditions, which results in relatively low risk premia for these portfolios. Therefore, this long-run consumption risk factor might explain why low interest rate currencies do not appreciate as much as the interest rate differential, and why high interest rate currencies do not depreciate as much as the interest rate differential. Research design, data, methodology - In our explanation, we provide new evidence on the success of long-run consumption risks in currency risk premia by focusing on the long-run consumption risks borne by American representative investors. To uncover the hidden link between exchange rates and long-run consumption growth, we set the eight currency portfolios as our basic assets, which have been built based on the foreign interest rates of eighty countries. As these eight currency portfolios are rebalanced every year, the first group always contains the lowest interest rate currencies, and the last group contains the highest interest rate currencies. Against these basic eight currency portfolios, we estimate the long-run consumption risk model. We use recursive utility framework and the stochastic discount factor that depends on the present value of expected future consumption growth rates. We find that our model is optimized in the two-year period of constructing the durable consumption expectation factor. Our main results surprisingly surpass the performance of the existing benchmark simultaneous consumption model in terms of R², relatively risk aversion coefficient γ, and p-value of J-test. Results - The performance of our model is superior. R², relatively risk aversion coefficient γ, and p-value of J-test of our long-run durable consumption model are 90%, 93%, and 65.5%, respectively, while those of EZ-DCAPM are 87%, 113%, and 62.8%, respectively. Thus, we can speculate that the risk premia in foreign currency markets have been determined by the long-run consumption risk. Conclusions - The aggregate long-run consumption growth risk explains a large part of the average change in the real excess returns of foreign currency portfolios. The real excess returns of high interest rate currency portfolios depreciate on average when American long-run consumption growth rate is low, and the real excess returns of low interest rate currency portfolios appreciate under the same conditions. Thus, the low interest rate currency portfolios allow investors to hedge against aggregate long-run consumption growth risk.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.317-324
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• 1999

Objectives: Since 1991, nationwide massive neonatal screening program for phenylketonuria (PKU) and congenital hypothyroidism have been performed in Korea. As in many other countries, efficiency of this program has not been definitely concluded. For the purpose of evaluation of this program, from the perspective of efficiency, a cost-benefit analysis was carried out. Methods: Costs of the detection and the treatment program were compared with the projected benefit(avoided costs) that results from the prevention of the mental retardation associated with the disorders due to PKU and hypothyroidism. Costs and benefits were discounted at an annual rate of 5%, and duration of life-long labor was assumed to be 30 years. Cost and benefit were estimated based on the detection rates of one case of PKU per 5,572 and one case of congenital hypothyroidism per 32,554 babies screened during 1991-1997. Results: The benefit-cost ratio was 0.418. The sensitivity analysis for the discount rates and labor durations showed that most cost-benefit ratios were lower than one(1.0) except when discount rate was changed to 3% and detection rate to two- or threefold and/or labor duration to 40 years. Conclusion: The result of this study suggested that present program of mass screening for PKU and congenital hypothyroidism could not be justified in terms of efficiency. It doesn't coincide with the results of previous studies in major developed countries, presumably because of difference in detection rates and welfare cost for the disabled.

• Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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• v.46 no.10
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• pp.107-117
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• 2008

The purpose of this study was to analyze customer attraction effects of restaurant promotion for kids. The questionnaires were distributed to 300 parents who have children under 12 years old and a total of 269 questionnaires were collected and used in analysis(usage rate 90.0%). The data was analyzed using SPSS 12.0 for descriptive analysis and paired t-test. The major results were as follows; First, customers mainly got information on coupon from mail. In case of premium and membership, the information was obtained when customers were visiting restaurants. Second, among the types of promotion for kids, coupon was mostly preferred by customers. 'Discount coupon' for the coupon, 'free gift' for the premium and 'pay-back' program for the membership were more preferable than other types of kids promotion. Third, A 'discount coupon' was more effective than 'free coupon'(p<.0l) in term of customer inducement. In case of premium, 'free gift' was more effective than 'lottery'(p<.05) and in case of membership, the customer attraction effect was not significantly different according to the types of membership. In case of coupon and membership, it was more effective in family restaurant than fastfood restaurant(p<.05), but the effect of premium was not significantly different in family vs fastfood restaurant. The results of the study revealed that 'coupon' was the most preferred type of promotion for kids and specifically customers preferred 'discount coupon', 'free gift' and 'pay-back program'.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.27-35
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• 2017

Based on Income-approach, this study develops the evaluation model which reflects construction industry's traits. Using Income approach, we derive future income's present value and evaluates the technological value by contribution to future income. As there exist more random variables in construction technology than in standardized manufactured products, we cannot help relying on not only quantitative estimation method but also qualitative evaluation by technology and market experts when we estimates construction technology value. Also, conservative estimation is needed for discount rate and cash-flow estimation, because of high uncertainty in sales and profits in construction industry. In empirical analysis, we applied economic periods of duration and cash-flow based on the standard guideline, and analyzed discount rate and technology factor based on characteristics of construction industry. The discount rate is estimated to 15% because of risk-premium increase by conservative evaluation. Technology factor is estimated to 46.7%, because technological intensity is estimated to 72% by technological superiority. Such implications can be inferred. Firstly, we need to build a database to diversify categories for division of sectors by activity or industrial classification which is now categorized only by two sectors in standard guideline. Secondly, the roles of experts who participate in technology evaluation are important because of volatility of construction technology.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.18 no.5
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• pp.587-595
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• 2017

The study examinesthe hindrance factors including various laws and institutions with regard to the Unbundled Parking System (UPS) that has recently attracted the greatest attention as a way to manage traffic demand for sustainable development, efficient utilization of parking spaces, and to overcome the unstable housing market.The direction of improvement of related laws and institutions is also suggested. Its usage is proven by countries such as the United States of America and France, as they have already implemented this institution. To lay the foundation for the introduction of UPS of our own country, a survey on the preference for UPS was conducted. The survey equally divided 300 respondents into three clusters based on the sales price of apartments in Seoul. The analyses revealed that all three clusters have similar preferences (cluster 1: 68%, cluster 2: 62%, cluster 3: 65%) on UPS, and younger groups seem to answer in the affirmative more than the other age groups no matter what cluster they belong to. In conclusion, the results on the estimation of selection probability on the preference of unbundled parking system and sales discount rate are as follow. The groups of non-vehicle users have higher preference on UPS. When the discount rate is 14%, 69%, 77% and 62%ofrespondents would choose unbundled parking system for clusters 1, 2 and 3, respectively (￦6,370,000/PY,￦3,930,000/PY and ￦2,270,000/PY reduce when applying avg. sales price, respectively).

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.280-293
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• 2005

In this study, a model to calculate the expected total construction cost has been developed by combining a model to calculate the sliding distance of a caisson of a vertical breakwater and a model to calculate the rehabilitation cost of a caisson. The optimal cross-section of a caisson of a vertical breakwater is defined as the cross-section that requires a minimum expected total construction cost within the allowable limit of caisson sliding. Two allowable limits are considered: 0.1 m of the expected sliding distance during the lifetime of the breakwater and 0.1 of the probability that the cumulative sliding distance during the lifetime of the breakwater is greater than 0.3 m. A discount rate has also been introduced to convert the future rehabilitation cost to the present value. The introduction of the discount rate reduces the expected total construction cost for the caissons designed for shorter return periods due to frequent rehabilitations. The present design method requires a smaller cross-section than the conventional deterministic method in shallow water depths, enabling us to design a caisson more economically. On the other hand, the above-mentioned allowable limits of caisson sliding show similar results for smaller water depths, while, for larger depths, the former requires a larger cross-section than the latter.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.20 no.44
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• pp.163-169
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• 1997

Due to the increasing of the number of cars and bad road conditions, car accidens are increasing every you in Korea. When a person meets a car accident, it is necessary for him to analyze and determine whether applying insurance or not, because standard discount rate and special increasing rate change with accident types and the amount of accident expenditure. When we consider insurance rate that includes more then ten elements, we need a decision making, In this paper, S insurance company investigated previous car causers in 1988, 1989, 1990 to 1996 with 600,000 real data. We investigate probability density functions and cumulative distribution functions for each year using ARENA software. We can apply the results of this study to various accidents that occur under uncertainty in our life. I hope that this paper contribute to strengthening competitive power of companies and developing new insurance rate systems in future.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.23-42
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• 2005

The service offer expectation and the desire of customers to a large-sized rate influence store also increase as a result of such environmental change. the counter where research of a book was upgraded from differentiation pursuit by competition between business condition in business condition in the case of the domestic rate influence store which has put the focus on service strengthening The work shrine which cannot reach here the competition predominance in the domestic market it will be hard coming to secure, when environmental change of inside large-sized rate influence store industry is taken into consideration The research which tried to receive customer service failure recovery carried out actual proof analysis in the influence to which fair nature lateness of a customer attains to the re-purchase intention to this store of customer satisfaction and future by service recovery process for an object in the customer who held service failure recovery experience in the domestic large-sized rate influence store.

• Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.1092-1098
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• 2015

Fishing population has been increasing with national income improvement and the five-day workweek in Korea. Recently commercial fishing facilities like pay fishing pond are emerging as demand of saltwater fishing increases, unlike the past when inland fishing was prominent. In order to do businesses, economic analysis should be done in advance. This study aimed to make an Economic analysis of Uljin pay-fishing place by estimating the cost and benefit, and calculating the rate of economic return. The results show the Uljin pay-fishing place's net present value of 3.5 billion won, internal rate of return of 14%, and benefit cost ratio of 1.16 at 5.5% social discount rate.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.15-24
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• 2017

The major goal of this paper falls on developing new rational valuation model, to help companies and investors in the early stage of growth as to preparing and negotiating valuation of investment, by applying new reasonable discount indexes of calculating Discount Cash Flow in valuation of the start-up which has been recognized the critical fatal flaws of DCF with them. There are three specific studies done in this paper. First, this paper found the solid and viable bases of rational discount indexes as to applying DCF in valuing companies in the early growth stage with reviewing the previous studies including Berkus method, Scorecard Method, and Risk factor Summation method classified the most effective tools of valuing pre-revenue generating companies. Second, this paper quoted and analyzed the previous models and studies, so called, 'DCF-Prime' of applying DCF method as to value companies in the early growth stage by taking all risk factors innate to the companies in the early growth stage as the discount rate Beta coefficient. Third, this paper propose more viable and solid valuation models, so called, 'DCF-Plus'of combing all validated valuation factors in Berkus, Scorecard, and Risk Factor Summation methods into applying separate discount bracket after DCF Valuation over the companies in the early growth stage instead of taking them as the factors of discount rate, beta coefficient, like the previous model of DCF-Prime. DCF-Plus mainly developed in this paper will not only provide more rational valuation bases as to investment negotiation between companies and investors in the early growth stage, but also providing more accountable guidelines to companies in the early growth as to prepare investment raising and accelerating their company's value by themselves.