• 한국방재안전학회논문집
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.11-21
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• 2019

본 연구는 서울시가 관리하는 재난 유형 중에 19개(자연재난 3개, 사회재난 16개)를 선정하여 QRE 평가를 진행하였다. 19개 재난 유형의 선정 기준은 과거에 자주 발생하고, 발생하면 인명과 재산피해를 많이 초래하는 재난 및 미래에 발생 가능성이 큰 재난을 중심으로 선정하였다. 서울시의 재난 유형에 대한 QRE 도구의 결과에 따르면, 가장 위험도가 높은 재난 유형은 "자살 사고" 및 "대기질 악화"로 나타났다. 자살 사고는 발생 위험이 높고 자살자의 경제 및 정신적인 문제 해소 대책 마련이 쉽지 않기 때문이다. 이는 재난 위험 등급 "M6"에 해당된다. 이에 비해 서울시가 관리하는 재난 중 위험도가 낮은 재난 유형은 풍수해, 상수도 누수사고, 수질 오염사고 등으로 분석되었다. 풍수해는 국지성 집중호우, 태풍 등 재난 발생 가능성은 높지만, 서울시는 5년마다 풍수해 저감 종합계획 등을 수립하여 잘 대응하고 있다. 이러한 측면이 재난 예방 대비책이 적절하게 수행되는 것으로 평가되어 재난 위험도가 낮은 것으로 분석되었다. 이는 재난 위험 등급 "VL1"에 해당된다. 끝으로 QRE 도구는 도시의 지도자 및 재난 관리자들에게 재난 발생 위험을 비교적 간단한 방법으로 신속하게 알려줌으로써 의사 결정을 빠르게 할 수 있는 토대를 마련해 준다. 또한 QRE 도구를 활용한 평가는 서울시에 당면한 도시안전 위험도에 대한 복원력의 체계적인 평가, 미래투자 계획에 대한 기초자료, 재난 대응 등 많은 측면에서 도움을 주었다.

• 전기화학회지
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.65-75
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• 2021

코인형 전지는 리튬 이차 전지 연구의 주요 평가 플랫폼으로써 새로운 소재 및 개념을 발굴하고 차세대 전지의 기초 연구에도 큰 기여를 하고 있다. 리튬 금속 전지는 500 Wh kg^-1 이상의 에너지 밀도를 구현할 수 있어 유망한 차세대 리튬 이차 전지 후보군으로 고려되고 있으나, 덴드라이트 형태의 리튬 전착과 함께 극심한 부피 변화 및 표면적 증가라는 성능 열화에 매우 취약하다. 특히, 리튬 금속 전지의 수명은 전해질 양, 리튬 두께, 내부 압력 등과 같은 전지 설계 및 구조에 매우 의존하기 때문에 코인셀 수준에서의 성능 평가 및 신뢰성에 치명적이다. 따라서, 기존 코인셀 구조를 개선한 리튬 금속 음극 특화 전지 설계 및 규격화가 요구된다. 본 연구에서는 상용수준에서의 주요 전지 설계 인자인 극소량의 전해질과 높은 양극 로딩 레벨, 박막 리튬 사용 등의 환경에서 성능 및 재현성을 확보한 코인셀 구조를 제안한다. 양극과 음극의 면적비를 1에 근접하게 제어하여 비활성 공간을 최소화하고 용량 저하현상을 완화시켰다. 또한, 코인셀 내 압력을 정량화하여 압력의 균일성이 중요한 인자임을 규명하고 유연성 고분자 (PDMS) 필름 도입과 내부 부품의 변화를 통해 기존보다 높고 (0.6 MPa → 2.13 MPa) 균일한 압력(표준편차: 0.43 → 0.16)이 가하도록 개조하였다. 이를 통해 최적의 설계를 정립을 통해 기존보다 향상된 재현성을 확인하였다.

• 전기화학회지
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.120-132
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• 2021

기존 LiCoO₂의 고전압 사용의 제약에 따른 용량적 한계와 코발트 원료의 높은 가격을 해결하기 위하여 high-Nickel에 대한 개발이 활발히 진행되고 있지만 Ni 함량의 증가에 따른 구조적 안정성의 저하에 의한 전지 특성의 저하는 상용화를 지연시키는 중요한 원인이 되고 있다. 이에 Ni-rich 삼성분계 양극소재 LiNi_0.6Co_0.2Mn_0.2O₂의 고안정성을 높이고자 전구체에 균일한 이종원소 Ti를 치환을 위해서 나노크기의 TiO₂ 서스펜젼 형태 소스를 사용하여 전구체 Ni_0.6Co_0.2Mn_0.2-x(OH)₂/xTiO₂를 제조하였다. Li₂CO₃와 혼합하고, 열처리 후 양극활물질 LiNi_0.6Co_0.2Mn_0.2-xTi_xO₂ 합성하여 Ti 함량에 따른 물리적 특성을 비교하였다. Field Emission Scanning electron Microscope(FE-SEM) 및 Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS) mapping 분석을 통해 Ti 치환된 구형의 전구체와 입자 크기 측정을 통해 균일한 입자크기를 가지는 양극 활물질 제조를 확인하였고, 내부치밀도와 강도가 증가함을 확인 하고, X-ray Diffractometry (XRD) 구조 분석과 Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) 정량분석을 통해 Ti 치환된 양극활물질 제조 및 고온, 고전압에서 충·방전을 지속하더라도 효과적으로 용량이 유지됨을 확인하였다.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제55권spc1호
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• pp.1251-1260
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• 2022

최근 상수관망은 노후화 및 관 내 스케일의 박리로 인해 적수 사고등 수질사고가 지속적으로 발생하고 있다. 관내 퇴적되어있는 스케일은 평상시엔 안정화되어 문제를 야기하지 않지만, 상수관망 시스템의 급격한 유속 및 유향 변화 등에 의해 발생하는 수충격에 의해 박리된 후 수용가로 유입되며 수질사고를 야기한다. 이를 사전에 방지하기 위해서는 주기적인 관세척으로 스케일을 제거할 필요가 있다. 관세척공법 중 가장 보편적으로 사용되는 방법은 플러싱으로 현재 국내·외에서 관세척을 위한 유속 및 세척기준 연구가 활발하게 진행되고 있다. 하지만, 플러싱 공법 적용 시 적정유속 기준에 관한 연구가 주로 진행되어, 세척시 관내 적정유속 확보여부를 사전에 검토하기 위한 구체적인 방안에 관한 연구는 미흡한 실정이다. 관 세척시 용수는 소화전 또는 이토변을 통과하면서 주손실과 미소손실이 발생하며, 이는 관 내 유속에 영향을 미치는 요인으로 세척효과 분석에 직접적인 영향을 준다. 이에 본 연구는 Minorloss Coefficient와 Emitter Coefficient를 적용한 모의를 통해 플러싱 적용 시 관 내 유속을 분석하는 수리해석 방법을 제안하였다. 제안한 방법을 예시관망과 A시 일부구역에 적용하여 적절성을 검토하고, 소화전과 이토변의 세척효과를 비교하였다. 적용 결과 소화전을 통과하는 수리학적 조건을 고려하지 않은 경우, 실제 발생하는 손실을 고려하지 못해 소화전에서 방출 가능한 유량 대비 큰 유량과 유속이 산출되는 결과를 보였고, 이토변의 경우는 긴 세척구간에도 세척유속과 유량의 확보가 용이하여 소화전에 비해 시간적. 효율적으로 큰 세척효과가 있을 것으로 판단하였다. 하지만, 실제 상수관망의 적용 시 이토변은 소화전에 비해 설치 개수가 적어 적용이 제한적이다. 이와같은 특성을 이해하여 실무자의 판단과 대상지역의 특징에 따라서 적절한 세척계획을 수립하는 것이 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

• Korean journal of health promotion
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.91-95
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• 2019

연구배경: 비만과 폐 기능의 저하는 만성 질환 이환율과 사망률 증가와 관련 있는 것으로 알려져 있다. 하지만 국내에서 체중이나 체질량지수(BMI)의 변화가 폐 기능에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구는 없어 본 연구는 건강증진센터에서 연속적인 검진을 받은 한국인 수검자를 대상으로 체중이나 BMI 변화가 폐 기능 검사(PFT)의 인자들에 미치는 영향에 대해 알아보고자 한다. 방법: 2015년과 2017년에 일개 건강증진센터에서 건강검진을 연속적으로 받은 사람 중 신체계측과 PFT를 모두 시행한 5,032명을 대상으로 체중과 BMI의 변화와 PFT와 연관성을 상관분석 및 t-검정을 통하여 분석하였다. 결과: 체중과 BMI 변화에 따른 PFT 인자들과의 관련성에 있어서 남성에서는 유의미한 차이를 확인할 수 없었고 다만 체중이 증가한 그룹에서 FEV₁이 체중이 감소한 그룹에 비해 더 낮은 것으로 확인되었다. 여성에서는 체중과 BMI가 증가한 그룹에서 FEV₁/FVC와 FEF_25-75%가 체중이 감소한 그룹에 비해 더 낮았고, 체중과 BMI 변화에 따른 PFT 인자들과의 관련성에서 FEV₁/FVC와 FEF_25-75%가 음의 상관관계를 보여 비만도의 증가에 따라 FEV₁/FVC와 FEF_25-75%가 낮아지는 것과 관련이 있을 수 있음을 확인하였다. 결론: 본 연구에서는 비만도의 변화에 따라 PFT의 인자들의 변화가 있을 수 있음을 확인하였고 비만의 적절한 관리가 폐 기능에도 긍정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있을 가능성을 확인한 것에 의의가 있다. 향후 대규모 다기관 연구를 통해 지속적인 비만의 관리가 폐 기능 및 폐질환에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구가 필요할 것으로 생각된다.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.27-45
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• 1990

이촌향도형(離村向都型) 인구이동(人口移動) 농촌지역경제(農村地域經濟)에 미치는 영향(影響)에 관해 두가지 상반(相反)된 견해(見解)가 있다. 신고전학파적(新古典學派的) 낙관론(樂觀論) 따르면 이농현상(離農現象)은 농촌지역(農村地域)의 소득(所得)이나 후생수준(厚生水準)을 저해(沮害)하지 않는다고 보는 반면 Lipton (1980)은 그 반대의 견해(見解)를 취하고 있다. 본고(本稿)에서는 비교역재(非交易財)(nontraded goods)에 대한 국제무역이론(國濟貿易理論)과 화란병(和蘭病)(Dutch Disease)의 이론(理論)을 원용하여 농촌(農村)에서 도시(都市)로의 인구이동모형을 개발했다. 이 모형은 이농인구이동(離農人口移動)이 농촌지역(農村地域)의 소득(所得)과 후생수준(厚生水準)을 저해(沮害)한다는 점에서는 Lipton의 견해(見解)와 일치하나 소득(所得)을 감소(減少)시키는 요인들은 Lipton의 모형(模型)에서 지적(指摘)된 것들과는 다르다. 본고(本稿)는 이농현상(離農現象)이 농촌소득(農村所得)을 감소(減少)시키는 이유가 농업생산성(農業生産性)의 하락(下落) 때문이 아니라 농촌노동 및 소비인구의 격감으로 인한 농업부문(農業部門)의 이윤감소(利潤減少)와 농촌(農村) 서비스부문(部門)와 쇠퇴(衰退)때문이라고 주장한다. 1966, 1970, 1975, 1980 및 1985년의 한국인구(韓國人口)센서스 통계자료(統計資料)를 이용하여 주요가설(主要假說)들에 대해 실증분석(實證分析)을 한 결과 신고전학파(新古典學派)의 주장(主張)이나 Lipton의 견해(見解)보다 본(本) 연구모형(硏究模型)의 설명력(說明力)이 더 높은 것으로 밝혀졌다.

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• 제46권3호
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• pp.350-362
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• 1999

연구배경: 침습적 기계 호흡 이탈에 성공하여 기관내 관을 제거하였으나 48시간 이내에 급성 호흡 부전이 경우 또는 환자 스스로 기관내 관을 제거한 후 발생된 급성 호흡 부전은 이탈 실패의 중요한 원인이며, 발생시 기관내 관의 재삽관을 통한 호흡 보조가 표준적 치료이다. 비침습적 양압 환기법(noninvasive positive pressure ventilation이하 NIPPV)은 비 혹은 안면마스크를 통해 양압 환기를 시행하므로 기관내 삽관을 회피할 수 있다. 본 연구는 기계 호흡 이탈 후 기관내 관을 제거한 환자들에게 발생된 급성 호흡 부전 시 NIPPV 적용이 기관내 삽관을 통한 양압 환기 치료를 대체할 수 있는지를 알아보고자 하였다. 방 법: 대상은 아산 재단 서울 중앙병원 내과계 중환자실에 입원하여 기계적 환기 치료를 받고 이탈 과정에서 기관내 관 제거 후 48시간 이내에 급성 호흡 부전이 발생한 환자 21명 및 스스로 기관내 관을 제거한 후 급성 호흡 부전이 발생한 환자 7명과 기관내 관이 기도내 분비물로 막혀 기관내 관을 제거한 환자 2명등 총 31명에게 NIPPV를 적용하였다. NIPPV는 환자 상태에 따라 기계 환기 양식, 압력 보조 수준 및 흡입 산소의 양이 조절 되어졌으며, 압력 보조 8cm $H_2O$미만에서 임상적으로 안정된 상태를 유지하는 경우 완전히 NIPPV에서 이탈하였다. 성공군은 NIPPV 이탈후 48 시간 이상 자발 호흡을 유지한 경우로 정의하였고, 실패군은 NIPPV 시행 후 호흡 부전 소견이나 동맥혈 가스검사의 호전이 없어 다시 기관내 삽관을 시행하여 기계호흡을 시행한 환자로 정의하였다. 각 군에서 NIPPV적용 직전, 적용 후 30분, 6시간, 24시간, NIPPV 이탈 작전 또는 실패하여 기관내 재삽관으로 전환 직전의 심박동수, 분당 호흡수, 동맥혈 가스검사, 압력 보조 수준 및 호기말 양압등을 비교하였다. 결 과: 총 31명에서 NIPPV를 적용하였고, 이 중 성공군은 14명(45%)이었다. 성공군과 실패군을 비교 시 나이, 중환자실 입원 당시의 APACHE III 점수, 기관 내 삽관 기간, 기관내 관 제거 후 NIPPV적용시까지의 시간 및 NIPPV 시행 직전의 분당 호흡수, 심박동수, 동맥혈 가스검사, $PaO_2/FiO_2$ 등은 양군간에 유의한 차이가 없었다. 모든 환자에서 NIPPV적용 30분후부터 분당 호흡수 및 심박동수는 감소하였고 동맥혈 산소 포화도는 증가하였다.(p<0.05) 그러나, 실패군에서는 NIPPV 시행중에 상태가 악화되어 기관내 재삽관을 시행하였고, 재삽관 작전의 분당 호흡수 및 심박동수는 다시 증가하였으며 동맥혈 산소포화도는 감소하였다(p<0.05). 기저 질환이 COPD 이면서 기관내 관 제거 후 급성 호흡부전이 발생한 환자 8명에게 NIPPV 적용 시 COPD가 아닌 다른 환자들에 비해 NIPPV의 성공률이 의미 있게 높았다(62% 대 39%)(p=0.007). NIPPV를 이용한 이탈 시 실패의 원인으로는 기저 질환의 악화 없이 동맥혈 가스 소견이 악화되었던 예가 9예, 그 외 기저 질환 악화 5예, 마스크 부적응이 2예, 기도내 분비물 축적이 1예였다. 결 론: NIPPV는 침습적 기계 호흡이탈과정에서 특히 기저질환이 COPD인 환자들의 경우 기관내 관 제거 후 발생한 급성 호흡 부전 시 기관내 관의 재삽관을 피할 수 있는 유용한 치료적인 방법으로 사료된다.

• 대한간호학회지
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• 제3권1호
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• pp.13-40
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• 1972

Much has teed changed in the field of hospital administration in the It wake of the rapid development of sciences, techniques ana systematic hospital management. However, we still have a long way to go in organization, in the quality of hospital employees and hospital equipment and facilities, and in financial support in order to achieve proper hospital management. The above factors greatly effect the ability of hospitals to fulfill their obligation in patient care and nursing services. The purpose of this study is to determine the optimal methods of standardization and quality nursing so as to improve present nursing services through investigations and analyses of various problems concerning nursing administration. This study has been undertaken during the six month period from October 1971 to March 1972. The 41 comprehensive hospitals have been selected iron amongst the 139 in the whole country. These have been categorized according-to the specific purposes of their establishment, such as 7 university hospitals, 18 national or public hospitals, 12 religious hospitals and 4 enterprise ones. The following conclusions have been acquired thus far from information obtained through interviews with nursing directors who are in charge of the nursing administration in each hospital, and further investigations concerning the purposes of establishment, the organization, personnel arrangements, working conditions, practices of service, and budgets of the nursing service department. 1. The nursing administration along with its activities in this country has been uncritical1y adopted from that of the developed countries. It is necessary for us to re-establish a new medical and nursing system which is adequate for our social environments through continuous study and research. 2. The survey shows that the 7 university hospitals were chiefly concerned with education, medical care and research; the 18 national or public hospitals with medical care, public health and charity work; the 2 religious hospitals with medical care, charity and missionary works; and the 4 enterprise hospitals with public health, medical care and charity works. In general, the main purposes of the hospitals were those of charity organizations in the pursuit of medical care, education and public benefits. 3. The survey shows that in general hospital facilities rate 64 per cent and medical care 60 per-cent against a 100 per cent optimum basis in accordance with the medical treatment law and approved criteria for training hospitals. In these respects, university hospitals have achieved the highest standards, followed by religious ones, enterprise ones, and national or public ones in that order. 4. The ages of nursing directors range from 30 to 50. The level of education achieved by most of the directors is that of graduation from a nursing technical high school and a three year nursing junior college; a very few have graduated from college or have taken graduate courses. 5. As for the career tenure of nurses in the hospitals: one-third of the nurses, or 38 per cent, have worked less than one year; those in the category of one year to two represent 24 pet cent. This means that a total of 62 per cent of the career nurses have been practicing their profession for less than two years. Career nurses with over 5 years experience number only 16 per cent: therefore the efficiency of nursing services has been rated very low. 6. As for the standard of education of the nurses: 62 per cent of them have taken a three year course of nursing in junior colleges, and 22 per cent in nursing technical high schools. College graduate nurses come up to only 15 per cent; and those with graduate course only 0.4 per cent. This indicates that most of the nurses are front nursing technical high schools and three year nursing junior colleges. Accordingly, it is advisable that nursing services be divided according to their functions, such as professional, technical nurses and nurse's aides. 7. The survey also shows that the purpose of nursing service administration in the hospitals has been regulated in writing in 74 per cent of the hospitals and not regulated in writing in 26 per cent of the hospitals. The general purposes of nursing are as follows: patient care, assistance in medical care and education. The main purpose of these nursing services is to establish proper operational and personnel management which focus on in-service education. 8. The nursing service departments belong to the medical departments in almost 60 per cent of the hospitals. Even though the nursing service department is formally separated, about 24 per cent of the hospitals regard it as a functional unit in the medical department. Only 5 per cent of the hospitals keep the department as a separate one. To the contrary, approximately 12 per cent of the hospitals have not established a nursing service department at all but surbodinate it to the other department. In this respect, it is required that a new hospital organization be made to acknowledge the independent function of the nursing department. In 76 per cent of the hospitals they have advisory committees under the nursing department, such as a dormitory self·regulating committee, an in-service education committee and a nursing procedure and policy committee. 9. Personnel arrangement and working conditions of nurses 1) The ratio of nurses to patients is as follows: In university hospitals, 1 to 2.9 for hospitalized patients and 1 to 4.0 for out-patients; in religious hospitals, 1 to 2.3 for hospitalized patients and 1 to 5.4 for out-patients. Grouped together this indicates that one nurse covers 2.2 hospitalized patients and 4.3 out-patients on a daily basis. The current medical treatment law stipulates that one nurse should care for 2.5 hospitalized patients or 30.0 out-patients. Therefore the statistics indicate that nursing services are being peformed with an insufficient number of nurses to cover out-patients. The current law concerns the minimum number of nurses and disregards the required number of nurses for operation rooms, recovery rooms, delivery rooms, new-born baby rooms, central supply rooms and emergency rooms. Accordingly, tile medical treatment law has been requested to be amended. 2) The ratio of doctors to nurses: In university hospitals, the ratio is 1 to 1.1; in national of public hospitals, 1 to 0.8; in religious hospitals 1 to 0.5; and in private hospitals 1 to 0.7. The average ratio is 1 to 0.8; generally the ideal ratio is 3 to 1. Since the number of doctors working in hospitals has been recently increasing, the nursing services have consequently teen overloaded, sacrificing the services to the patients. 3) The ratio of nurses to clerical staff is 1 to 0.4. However, the ideal ratio is 5 to 1, that is, 1 to 0.2. This means that clerical personnel far outnumber the nursing staff. 4) The ratio of nurses to nurse's-aides; The average 2.5 to 1 indicates that most of the nursing service are delegated to nurse's-aides owing to the shortage of registered nurses. This is the main cause of the deterioration in the quality of nursing services. It is a real problem in the guest for better nursing services that certain hospitals employ a disproportionate number of nurse's-aides in order to meet financial requirements. 5) As for the working conditions, most of hospitals employ a three-shift day with 8 hours of duty each. However, certain hospitals still use two shifts a day. 6) As for the working environment, most of the hospitals lack welfare and hygienic facilities. 7) The salary basis is the highest in the private university hospitals, with enterprise hospitals next and religious hospitals and national or public ones lowest. 8) Method of employment is made through paper screening, and further that the appointment of nurses is conditional upon the favorable opinion of the nursing directors. 9) The unemployment ratio for one year in 1971 averaged 29 per cent. The reasons for unemployment indicate that the highest is because of marriage up to 40 per cent, and next is because of overseas employment. This high unemployment ratio further causes the deterioration of efficiency in nursing services and supplementary activities. The hospital authorities concerned should take this matter into a jeep consideration in order to reduce unemployment. 10) The importance of in-service education is well recognized and established. 1% has been noted that on the-job nurses. training has been most active, with nursing directors taking charge of the orientation programs of newly employed nurses. However, it is most necessary that a comprehensive study be made of instructors, contents and methods of education with a separate section for in-service education. 10. Nursing services'activities 1) Division of services and job descriptions are urgently required. 81 per rent of the hospitals keep written regulations of services in accordance with nursing service manuals. 19 per cent of the hospitals do not keep written regulations. Most of hospitals delegate to the nursing directors or certain supervisors the power of stipulating service regulations. In 21 per cent of the total hospitals they have policy committees, standardization committees and advisory committees to proceed with the stipulation of regulations. 2) Approximately 81 per cent of the hospitals have service channels in which directors, supervisors, head nurses and staff nurses perform their appropriate services according to the service plans and make up the service reports. In approximately 19 per cent of the hospitals the staff perform their nursing services without utilizing the above channels. 3) In the performance of nursing services, a ward manual is considered the most important one to be utilized in about 32 percent of hospitals. 25 per cent of hospitals indicate they use a kardex; 17 per cent use ward-rounding, and others take advantage of work sheets or coordination with other departments through conferences. 4) In about 78 per cent of hospitals they have records which indicate the status of personnel, and in 22 per cent they have not. 5) It has been advised that morale among nurses may be increased, ensuring more efficient services, by their being able to exchange opinions and views with each other. 6) The satisfactory performance of nursing services rely on the following factors to the degree indicated: approximately 32 per cent to the systematic nursing activities and services; 27 per cent to the head nurses ability for nursing diagnosis; 22 per cent to an effective supervisory system; 16 per cent to the hospital facilities and proper supply, and 3 per cent to effective in·service education. This means that nurses, supervisors, head nurses and directors play the most important roles in the performance of nursing services. 11. About 87 per cent of the hospitals do not have separate budgets for their nursing departments, and only 13 per cent of the hospitals have separate budgets. It is recommended that the planning and execution of the nursing administration be delegated to the pertinent administrators in order to bring about improved proved performances and activities in nursing services.

• 대한교통학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한교통학회 1995년도 제27회 학술발표회
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• pp.101-113
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• 1995

The objective of this research is to test the feasibility of developing a statewide truck traffic forecasting methodology for Wisconsin by using Origin-Destination surveys, traffic counts, classification counts, and other data that are routinely collected by the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT). Development of a feasible model will permit estimation of future truck traffic for every major link in the network. This will provide the basis for improved estimation of future pavement deterioration. Pavement damage rises exponentially as axle weight increases, and trucks are responsible for most of the traffic-induced damage to pavement. Consequently, forecasts of truck traffic are critical to pavement management systems. The pavement Management Decision Supporting System (PMDSS) prepared by WisDOT in May 1990 combines pavement inventory and performance data with a knowledge base consisting of rules for evaluation, problem identification and rehabilitation recommendation. Without a r.easonable truck traffic forecasting methodology, PMDSS is not able to project pavement performance trends in order to make assessment and recommendations in the future years. However, none of WisDOT's existing forecasting methodologies has been designed specifically for predicting truck movements on a statewide highway network. For this research, the Origin-Destination survey data avaiiable from WisDOT, including two stateline areas, one county, and five cities, are analyzed and the zone-to'||'&'||'not;zone truck trip tables are developed. The resulting Origin-Destination Trip Length Frequency (00 TLF) distributions by trip type are applied to the Gravity Model (GM) for comparison with comparable TLFs from the GM. The gravity model is calibrated to obtain friction factor curves for the three trip types, Internal-Internal (I-I), Internal-External (I-E), and External-External (E-E). ~oth "macro-scale" calibration and "micro-scale" calibration are performed. The comparison of the statewide GM TLF with the 00 TLF for the macro-scale calibration does not provide suitable results because the available 00 survey data do not represent an unbiased sample of statewide truck trips. For the "micro-scale" calibration, "partial" GM trip tables that correspond to the 00 survey trip tables are extracted from the full statewide GM trip table. These "partial" GM trip tables are then merged and a partial GM TLF is created. The GM friction factor curves are adjusted until the partial GM TLF matches the 00 TLF. Three friction factor curves, one for each trip type, resulting from the micro-scale calibration produce a reasonable GM truck trip model. A key methodological issue for GM. calibration involves the use of multiple friction factor curves versus a single friction factor curve for each trip type in order to estimate truck trips with reasonable accuracy. A single friction factor curve for each of the three trip types was found to reproduce the 00 TLFs from the calibration data base. Given the very limited trip generation data available for this research, additional refinement of the gravity model using multiple mction factor curves for each trip type was not warranted. In the traditional urban transportation planning studies, the zonal trip productions and attractions and region-wide OD TLFs are available. However, for this research, the information available for the development .of the GM model is limited to Ground Counts (GC) and a limited set ofOD TLFs. The GM is calibrated using the limited OD data, but the OD data are not adequate to obtain good estimates of truck trip productions and attractions .. Consequently, zonal productions and attractions are estimated using zonal population as a first approximation. Then, Selected Link based (SELINK) analyses are used to adjust the productions and attractions and possibly recalibrate the GM. The SELINK adjustment process involves identifying the origins and destinations of all truck trips that are assigned to a specified "selected link" as the result of a standard traffic assignment. A link adjustment factor is computed as the ratio of the actual volume for the link (ground count) to the total assigned volume. This link adjustment factor is then applied to all of the origin and destination zones of the trips using that "selected link". Selected link based analyses are conducted by using both 16 selected links and 32 selected links. The result of SELINK analysis by u~ing 32 selected links provides the least %RMSE in the screenline volume analysis. In addition, the stability of the GM truck estimating model is preserved by using 32 selected links with three SELINK adjustments, that is, the GM remains calibrated despite substantial changes in the input productions and attractions. The coverage of zones provided by 32 selected links is satisfactory. Increasing the number of repetitions beyond four is not reasonable because the stability of GM model in reproducing the OD TLF reaches its limits. The total volume of truck traffic captured by 32 selected links is 107% of total trip productions. But more importantly, ~ELINK adjustment factors for all of the zones can be computed. Evaluation of the travel demand model resulting from the SELINK adjustments is conducted by using screenline volume analysis, functional class and route specific volume analysis, area specific volume analysis, production and attraction analysis, and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) analysis. Screenline volume analysis by using four screenlines with 28 check points are used for evaluation of the adequacy of the overall model. The total trucks crossing the screenlines are compared to the ground count totals. L V/GC ratios of 0.958 by using 32 selected links and 1.001 by using 16 selected links are obtained. The %RM:SE for the four screenlines is inversely proportional to the average ground count totals by screenline .. The magnitude of %RM:SE for the four screenlines resulting from the fourth and last GM run by using 32 and 16 selected links is 22% and 31 % respectively. These results are similar to the overall %RMSE achieved for the 32 and 16 selected links themselves of 19% and 33% respectively. This implies that the SELINICanalysis results are reasonable for all sections of the state.Functional class and route specific volume analysis is possible by using the available 154 classification count check points. The truck traffic crossing the Interstate highways (ISH) with 37 check points, the US highways (USH) with 50 check points, and the State highways (STH) with 67 check points is compared to the actual ground count totals. The magnitude of the overall link volume to ground count ratio by route does not provide any specific pattern of over or underestimate. However, the %R11SE for the ISH shows the least value while that for the STH shows the largest value. This pattern is consistent with the screenline analysis and the overall relationship between %RMSE and ground count volume groups. Area specific volume analysis provides another broad statewide measure of the performance of the overall model. The truck traffic in the North area with 26 check points, the West area with 36 check points, the East area with 29 check points, and the South area with 64 check points are compared to the actual ground count totals. The four areas show similar results. No specific patterns in the L V/GC ratio by area are found. In addition, the %RMSE is computed for each of the four areas. The %RMSEs for the North, West, East, and South areas are 92%, 49%, 27%, and 35% respectively, whereas, the average ground counts are 481, 1383, 1532, and 3154 respectively. As for the screenline and volume range analyses, the %RMSE is inversely related to average link volume. 'The SELINK adjustments of productions and attractions resulted in a very substantial reduction in the total in-state zonal productions and attractions. The initial in-state zonal trip generation model can now be revised with a new trip production's trip rate (total adjusted productions/total population) and a new trip attraction's trip rate. Revised zonal production and attraction adjustment factors can then be developed that only reflect the impact of the SELINK adjustments that cause mcreases or , decreases from the revised zonal estimate of productions and attractions. Analysis of the revised production adjustment factors is conducted by plotting the factors on the state map. The east area of the state including the counties of Brown, Outagamie, Shawano, Wmnebago, Fond du Lac, Marathon shows comparatively large values of the revised adjustment factors. Overall, both small and large values of the revised adjustment factors are scattered around Wisconsin. This suggests that more independent variables beyond just 226; population are needed for the development of the heavy truck trip generation model. More independent variables including zonal employment data (office employees and manufacturing employees) by industry type, zonal private trucks 226; owned and zonal income data which are not available currently should be considered. A plot of frequency distribution of the in-state zones as a function of the revised production and attraction adjustment factors shows the overall " adjustment resulting from the SELINK analysis process. Overall, the revised SELINK adjustments show that the productions for many zones are reduced by, a factor of 0.5 to 0.8 while the productions for ~ relatively few zones are increased by factors from 1.1 to 4 with most of the factors in the 3.0 range. No obvious explanation for the frequency distribution could be found. The revised SELINK adjustments overall appear to be reasonable. The heavy truck VMT analysis is conducted by comparing the 1990 heavy truck VMT that is forecasted by the GM truck forecasting model, 2.975 billions, with the WisDOT computed data. This gives an estimate that is 18.3% less than the WisDOT computation of 3.642 billions of VMT. The WisDOT estimates are based on the sampling the link volumes for USH, 8TH, and CTH. This implies potential error in sampling the average link volume. The WisDOT estimate of heavy truck VMT cannot be tabulated by the three trip types, I-I, I-E ('||'&'||'pound;-I), and E-E. In contrast, the GM forecasting model shows that the proportion ofE-E VMT out of total VMT is 21.24%. In addition, tabulation of heavy truck VMT by route functional class shows that the proportion of truck traffic traversing the freeways and expressways is 76.5%. Only 14.1% of total freeway truck traffic is I-I trips, while 80% of total collector truck traffic is I-I trips. This implies that freeways are traversed mainly by I-E and E-E truck traffic while collectors are used mainly by I-I truck traffic. Other tabulations such as average heavy truck speed by trip type, average travel distance by trip type and the VMT distribution by trip type, route functional class and travel speed are useful information for highway planners to understand the characteristics of statewide heavy truck trip patternS. Heavy truck volumes for the target year 2010 are forecasted by using the GM truck forecasting model. Four scenarios are used. Fo~ better forecasting, ground count- based segment adjustment factors are developed and applied. ISH 90 '||'&'||' 94 and USH 41 are used as example routes. The forecasting results by using the ground count-based segment adjustment factors are satisfactory for long range planning purposes, but additional ground counts would be useful for USH 41. Sensitivity analysis provides estimates of the impacts of the alternative growth rates including information about changes in the trip types using key routes. The network'||'&'||'not;based GMcan easily model scenarios with different rates of growth in rural versus . . urban areas, small versus large cities, and in-state zones versus external stations. cities, and in-state zones versus external stations.