• 제목/요약/키워드: delphi method

검색결과 653건 처리시간 0.031초

소프트웨어 개발 프로젝트의 위험요인 도출에 대한 델파이 연구 (A Delphi Study on Software Project Risks)

  • 정경수;강명희;김용
    • 한국정보시스템학회지:정보시스템연구
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    • 제13권1호
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2004
  • Most of the software development projects bear risks that need analysis and management. Risk management plays a critical role for the success of software project management. In this study, we have used delphi method to delineate critical risk factors. The study pulls out 20 project risk factors from 21 project managers. It is certainly clear that certain features are more risky than others. Our study shows that unrealistic cost estimation and changes in scope and objective are more risky than other features.

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Delphi-AHP 방법을 이용한 저탄소수소 생산 기술 가치평가 모델 개발 (Development of Low Carbon Hydrogen Production Technology Evaluation Model Using Delphi-AHP Method)

  • 황호석;김의식;장영신;김정환;김광준
    • 한국수소및신에너지학회논문집
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    • 제34권2호
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    • pp.113-121
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    • 2023
  • Recently, low hydrogen carbon production technology is drawing interest due to lower production costs. Although the pace of research in this field has been accelerating, there is no well-established criteria for evaluation. The most of current evaluation methods needs information related to technology. However the technology is not enough to provide effective evaluation criteria because the technology is not fully developed. In this study, we propose an integrated Delphi-analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and low carbon hydrogen production technology evaluation model. Experts opinion is used to provide evaluation criteria for the technology. In this study, integrated Delphi-AHP method are utilized for determining factors and calculating their numerical importance based on experts opinion. Then, sensitivity analysis is performed to verify the robustness of the analysis and scenarios of potential changes. As many as 11 factors are identified by Delphi method. Then, numerical importance of the factors are calculated by AHP. Sensitivity analysis is performed. It shows that intellectual property right (IPR) is always more important than other factors. This study proposes the numerical standard for the low carbon hydrogen production technology evaluation. The proposed model can be used for technology evaluation or commercialization.

Development of Educational Content for Nurses to Prevent Safety Accidents of Hospitalized Children: Delphi Approach

  • Lee, Yun Sil;Oh, Won-Oak
    • Child Health Nursing Research
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.74-84
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to develop content for safety education to prevent hospital safety accidents among hospitalized children and to investigate the status of safety education performed by nurses. Methods: First, the Delphi method was used, with 18 experts, to develop educational contents for preventing safety accidents. Second, an exploratory survey was performed of the actual status of safety education for preventing safety accidents among hospitalized children using a questionnaire developed based on the Delphi method. The participants of this study were 159 nurses with at least 6 months of work experience. Results: The educational content developed through the Delphi method for preventing safety accidents among hospitalized children contained seven domains (falls, injury, electric shocks/burns, suffocation/aspiration, poisoning/abuse, kidnapping, medical devices) with 44 topics. The item mean of nurses'perceptions of the importance of child safety education was 4.18, and the actual performance score was 3.72, which was a statistically significant difference (t=11.58, p<.001). Conclusion: These seven comprehensive domains of accident prevention education for hospitalized children are expected to be useful for interventions to support the safety of hospitalized children.

산후풍의 진단적 정의 확립을 위한 전문가 델파이 조사 연구 (A Study for the Establishment of the Diagnostic Definition of Sanhupung (U32.7) using the Delphi Method)

  • 오수경;노은지;최수지;김동일
    • 대한한방부인과학회지
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    • 제34권2호
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    • pp.16-30
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    • 2021
  • Objectives: The aim of this study was to establish a clear diagnostic definition of Sanhupung using the Delphi method. Methods: This study used the Delphi technique. A panel consisting of 21 experts of Korean medicine, particularly in of gynecologic medicine, participated in the Delphi examination that included answering the 4th round survey. The Delphi examination was carried out through evaluating and correcting the questionnaire by e-mail. Results: Through the Delphi survey, we have reached on an agreement regarding the basic concepts, time, cause, essential symptoms, and accessory symptoms of Sanhupung. They are as follows: 1) Sanhupung is a culture bound syndrome reflecting Korea's cultural specificity. 2) Sanhupung can be diagnosed even after the miscarriage. 3) For the diagnosis of Sanhupung, the main cause of symptoms should not be classified as other disease. 4) Sanhupung can be diagnosed based on essential symptoms and accessory symptoms. 5) Essential symptoms include local symptoms such as joint pain at specific areas, partial sensory impairment and general symptoms including pain of all the joints, whole body sensory impairment, increased sweating, feeling of wind coming into the body, worsened symptoms with the cold, intolerance to cold, and pain of all the muscles. Conclusions: The basic concepts and diagnostic definition of Sanhupung were suggested based on the Delphi survey among experts in the field. Further research is necessary to improve reliability and validity of diagnostic definition of Sanhupung in clinical trials.

낙동강 유역의 기후변화를 고려한 경향성 분석과 Delphi 기법을 이용한 가뭄 취약성 지수 개발 (Development of Drought Vulnerability Index Using Delphi Method Considering Climate Change and Trend Analysis in Nakdong River Basin)

  • 양정석;김일환
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제33권6호
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    • pp.2245-2254
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    • 2013
  • 기후변화로 인한 이상기후 현상 중 가뭄에 대한 취약성 지수를 자료의 경향성 분석과 Delphi 기법을 이용하여 개발하였다. 낙동강 유역 자료를 이용하여 수문학적, 강우 사상적, 인문학적 자료를 바탕으로 총 12개의 지표를 선정하였다. 선정된 지표를 Mann-Kendall trend test, Hotelling-Pabst trend test, Sen's trend test 등 3가지 경향성 검정을 통해 표준화하고, 델파이 기법을 통해 국내의 수자원 전문가들의 의견을 반영하여 각 지표에 가중치를 부여하였다. 최종적으로 산출된 가뭄에 대한 취약성 지수에서 낙동강 유역 중에서 합천 주변 지역이 가뭄에 가장 취약하다는 결과가 나왔다. 이 취약성 지수 개발을 통해 우리나라 전 지역에 적용하게 되면 향후 수자원 정책 수립에 있어서 많은 도움이 될 것이라 사료된다.

Delphi 기법을 적용한 심화형 정보 영재교육과정 개발의 기초연구 (A Fundamental Study on Developing the Enrichment Curriculum for Gifted Children in Informatics Education Using Delphi Method)

  • 박정선;김영식
    • 컴퓨터교육학회논문지
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    • 제13권4호
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    • pp.13-26
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    • 2010
  • 우리나라는 아직 체계적이고 표준화된 정보과학 영재교육과정이 없으며 이는 주로 속진으로 운영되는 교육과정의 문제점과 연결되어 있다. 따라서 정규 교육과정과 연계된 영재 교육과정과 간학문간의 다양한 심화를 통한 학습이 필요하다. 본 연구의 목적은 중학교 개정 '정보' 교육과정과 연계하여 정보영재를 위한 심화 교육과정을 개발하는 것이다. '정보' 교육과정 중 '문제해결방법과 절차' 영역을 대상으로 교육 목표, 교육 내용, 교수 학습 방법, 교육 평가 방법의 교육과정을 구성하기 위해 델파이 연구를 진행하였다. '문제해결방법과 절차' 영역의 1단계를 대상으로 3라운드 델파이 조사를 실시하였다. 전문가의 응답을 분석하여 구조화된 문항을 설계하였고 기술 통계를 사용하여 교육 목표, 교육 내용, 교수 학습 방법, 교육 평가 방법에 대한 중요 항목을 선정하였다.

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델파이 기법을 사용한 사물인터넷 비즈니스 모델 기반의 서비타이제이션 협력업체 선정 평가지표 개발 (Developing Evaluation Indicators for Selecting Suppliers based on IoT Business Model in Servitization Using Delphi Method)

  • 양재용;이상열
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제42권1호
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    • pp.21-32
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    • 2019
  • The flow of the $4^{th}$ Industrial Revolution calls for the innovation of the traditional business models of the manufacturers. Servitization is a corporate strategy to respond to changes in the business environment. These days, the value that the market demands can be created on the basis of the product-service integration. Thus the manufacturers must pursue the fundamental innovation of the current strategy and business models. It is necessary to create common values with customers through providing product-service integrated offerings beyond the development, production, and delivery. The purpose of this study is to develop the evaluation indicators for selecting suppliers when the manufacturer who offers the value of product-service integration needs to obtain the resources from outside. The case company in this study is the manufacture firm conducting the retail IoT business as a new business. The Delphi method is used to develop the evaluation indicators for selecting suppliers. This study suggests the academic implications providing the perspective of Servitizaiton by using Delphi method, and the practical implications applying the creating value method of Servitization by collecting the opinions from both value providers and value consumers in the process of developing the evaluation indicators.

Delphi기법에 의한 기계공학기술과 다른 기술분야의 국제적 기술수준과 국제기술협력 가능성에 대한 비교연구 (A Comparative Study on the International Technology Levels and R&D Cooperation Capabilities of Mechanical Engineering and Other Technologies by Delphi Method)

  • 권영주
    • 한국정밀공학회지
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    • 제14권6호
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    • pp.74-82
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    • 1997
  • We provide a set of information on technologies to draw meaningful action plans for the internationalization on National R&D activities. In this study, we employed a modiffed Delphi method to evaluate levels of our technological capabilities and developed countries as well. We investigated technology acquis- tion methodologies, technology characteristics and various aspects of international cooperation in terms of technology. Then, we analyzed final responses of participants (i.e., the third round results of Delphe method) to see the correlation among various factors in developing technologies through international R&D cooperation. The technology classification used in this research was developed by STEPI (Science and Technology Policy Institute). In conclusion, levels of our technologies were investigated to be between the stage of imi- tating/absorbing advanced thechnologies and the stage of digesting acquired technologies. Especially, com- paring with other technologies, mechanical engineering was evaluated to be almost near the stage of digesting acquired technology(the middle level stage of technology). Our overal technological capabilities were evaluated to be 40 .approx. 60% of top level countries.

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축산 . 수의분야의 델파이 기술예측조사에 관한 연구 (A Study on Survey for Technology Forecasting using Delphi in Animal Science and Veterinary Medicine)

  • 조근태;백인기;조영우;이종인
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • 제46권3호
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    • pp.479-494
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    • 2004
  • The study was designed to forecast and derive future core technologies using Delphi method for Korean livestock industry. The technologies will make livestock industJy a core and strategic industry that has high value-added sector in 21 century. Questions were given to specialists of each technology in order to survey importance, realization time. level of R&D in Korea and foremost countries, leading group of R&D, effective policy, etc. for each technology. The target of the survey for Delphi is confined to specialists in the area of Animal Science and Veterinary Medicine. 90 core technologies were derived and 62 specialists answered the questionnaire.

농업기계화분야의 델파이 기술예측조사에 관한 연구 (A Study on Survey for Technology Forecasting using Delphi in Biosystems Engineering)

  • 이종인;조근태;장동일;이규천;조영우
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • 제29권2호
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    • pp.175-186
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    • 2004
  • The study was designed to forecast and derive future core technologies using Delphi method in Korea agriculture. The technologies will make agriculture for core and strategic industry that has high value-added in 21 century. Questions were given to specialists by each technology in order to survey importance, realization time, level of R&D in Korea and foremost country, leading group of R&D, effective policy, etc. for each technology. The target of the survey for Delphi is confined specialists in the area of Bioystems Engineering. 55 core technologies were derived and 31 specialists answered the survey.