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Public Sentiment Analysis of Korean Top-10 Companies: Big Data Approach Using Multi-categorical Sentiment Lexicon (국내 주요 10대 기업에 대한 국민 감성 분석: 다범주 감성사전을 활용한 빅 데이터 접근법)

  • Kim, Seo In;Kim, Dong Sung;Kim, Jong Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.45-69
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    • 2016
  • Recently, sentiment analysis using open Internet data is actively performed for various purposes. As online Internet communication channels become popular, companies try to capture public sentiment of them from online open information sources. This research is conducted for the purpose of analyzing pulbic sentiment of Korean Top-10 companies using a multi-categorical sentiment lexicon. Whereas existing researches related to public sentiment measurement based on big data approach classify sentiment into dimensions, this research classifies public sentiment into multiple categories. Dimensional sentiment structure has been commonly applied in sentiment analysis of various applications, because it is academically proven, and has a clear advantage of capturing degree of sentiment and interrelation of each dimension. However, the dimensional structure is not effective when measuring public sentiment because human sentiment is too complex to be divided into few dimensions. In addition, special training is needed for ordinary people to express their feeling into dimensional structure. People do not divide their sentiment into dimensions, nor do they need psychological training when they feel. People would not express their feeling in the way of dimensional structure like positive/negative or active/passive; rather they express theirs in the way of categorical sentiment like sadness, rage, happiness and so on. That is, categorial approach of sentiment analysis is more natural than dimensional approach. Accordingly, this research suggests multi-categorical sentiment structure as an alternative way to measure social sentiment from the point of the public. Multi-categorical sentiment structure classifies sentiments following the way that ordinary people do although there are possibility to contain some subjectiveness. In this research, nine categories: 'Sadness', 'Anger', 'Happiness', 'Disgust', 'Surprise', 'Fear', 'Interest', 'Boredom' and 'Pain' are used as multi-categorical sentiment structure. To capture public sentiment of Korean Top-10 companies, Internet news data of the companies are collected over the past 25 months from a representative Korean portal site. Based on the sentiment words extracted from previous researches, we have created a sentiment lexicon, and analyzed the frequency of the words coming up within the news data. The frequency of each sentiment category was calculated as a ratio out of the total sentiment words to make ranks of distributions. Sentiment comparison among top-4 companies, which are 'Samsung', 'Hyundai', 'SK', and 'LG', were separately visualized. As a next step, the research tested hypothesis to prove the usefulness of the multi-categorical sentiment lexicon. It tested how effective categorial sentiment can be used as relative comparison index in cross sectional and time series analysis. To test the effectiveness of the sentiment lexicon as cross sectional comparison index, pair-wise t-test and Duncan test were conducted. Two pairs of companies, 'Samsung' and 'Hanjin', 'SK' and 'Hanjin' were chosen to compare whether each categorical sentiment is significantly different in pair-wise t-test. Since category 'Sadness' has the largest vocabularies, it is chosen to figure out whether the subgroups of the companies are significantly different in Duncan test. It is proved that five sentiment categories of Samsung and Hanjin and four sentiment categories of SK and Hanjin are different significantly. In category 'Sadness', it has been figured out that there were six subgroups that are significantly different. To test the effectiveness of the sentiment lexicon as time series comparison index, 'nut rage' incident of Hanjin is selected as an example case. Term frequency of sentiment words of the month when the incident happened and term frequency of the one month before the event are compared. Sentiment categories was redivided into positive/negative sentiment, and it is tried to figure out whether the event actually has some negative impact on public sentiment of the company. The difference in each category was visualized, moreover the variation of word list of sentiment 'Rage' was shown to be more concrete. As a result, there was huge before-and-after difference of sentiment that ordinary people feel to the company. Both hypotheses have turned out to be statistically significant, and therefore sentiment analysis in business area using multi-categorical sentiment lexicons has persuasive power. This research implies that categorical sentiment analysis can be used as an alternative method to supplement dimensional sentiment analysis when figuring out public sentiment in business environment.

Stock Price Prediction by Utilizing Category Neutral Terms: Text Mining Approach (카테고리 중립 단어 활용을 통한 주가 예측 방안: 텍스트 마이닝 활용)

  • Lee, Minsik;Lee, Hong Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.123-138
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    • 2017
  • Since the stock market is driven by the expectation of traders, studies have been conducted to predict stock price movements through analysis of various sources of text data. In order to predict stock price movements, research has been conducted not only on the relationship between text data and fluctuations in stock prices, but also on the trading stocks based on news articles and social media responses. Studies that predict the movements of stock prices have also applied classification algorithms with constructing term-document matrix in the same way as other text mining approaches. Because the document contains a lot of words, it is better to select words that contribute more for building a term-document matrix. Based on the frequency of words, words that show too little frequency or importance are removed. It also selects words according to their contribution by measuring the degree to which a word contributes to correctly classifying a document. The basic idea of constructing a term-document matrix was to collect all the documents to be analyzed and to select and use the words that have an influence on the classification. In this study, we analyze the documents for each individual item and select the words that are irrelevant for all categories as neutral words. We extract the words around the selected neutral word and use it to generate the term-document matrix. The neutral word itself starts with the idea that the stock movement is less related to the existence of the neutral words, and that the surrounding words of the neutral word are more likely to affect the stock price movements. And apply it to the algorithm that classifies the stock price fluctuations with the generated term-document matrix. In this study, we firstly removed stop words and selected neutral words for each stock. And we used a method to exclude words that are included in news articles for other stocks among the selected words. Through the online news portal, we collected four months of news articles on the top 10 market cap stocks. We split the news articles into 3 month news data as training data and apply the remaining one month news articles to the model to predict the stock price movements of the next day. We used SVM, Boosting and Random Forest for building models and predicting the movements of stock prices. The stock market opened for four months (2016/02/01 ~ 2016/05/31) for a total of 80 days, using the initial 60 days as a training set and the remaining 20 days as a test set. The proposed word - based algorithm in this study showed better classification performance than the word selection method based on sparsity. This study predicted stock price volatility by collecting and analyzing news articles of the top 10 stocks in market cap. We used the term - document matrix based classification model to estimate the stock price fluctuations and compared the performance of the existing sparse - based word extraction method and the suggested method of removing words from the term - document matrix. The suggested method differs from the word extraction method in that it uses not only the news articles for the corresponding stock but also other news items to determine the words to extract. In other words, it removed not only the words that appeared in all the increase and decrease but also the words that appeared common in the news for other stocks. When the prediction accuracy was compared, the suggested method showed higher accuracy. The limitation of this study is that the stock price prediction was set up to classify the rise and fall, and the experiment was conducted only for the top ten stocks. The 10 stocks used in the experiment do not represent the entire stock market. In addition, it is difficult to show the investment performance because stock price fluctuation and profit rate may be different. Therefore, it is necessary to study the research using more stocks and the yield prediction through trading simulation.

Analysis of the Range Verification of Proton using PET-CT (Off-line PET-CT를 이용한 양성자치료에서의 Range 검증)

  • Jang, Joon Young;Hong, Gun Chul;Park, Sey Joon;Park, Yong Chul;Choi, Byung Ki
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.101-108
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: The proton used in proton therapy has a characteristic of giving a small dose to the normal tissue in front of the tumor site while forming a Bragg peak at the cancer tissue site and giving up the maximum dose and disappearing immediately. It is very important to verify the proton arrival position. In this study, we used the off-line PET CT method to measure the distribution of positron emitted from nucleons such as 11C (half-life = 20 min), 150 (half-life = 2 min) and 13N The range and distal falloff point of the proton were verified by measurement. Materials and Methods: In the IEC 2001 Body Phantom, 37 mm, 28 mm, and 22 mm spheres were inserted. The phantom was filled with water to obtain a CT image for each sphere size. To verify the proton range and distal falloff points, As a treatment planning system, SOBP were set at 46 mm on 37 mm sphere, 37 mm on 28 mm, and 33 mm on 22 mm sphere for each sphere size. The proton was scanned in the same center with a single beam of Gantry 0 degree by the scanning method. The phantom was scanned using PET-CT equipment. In the PET-CT image acquisition method, 50 images were acquired per minute, four ROIs including the spheres in the phantom were set, and 10 images were reconstructed. The activity profile according to the depth was compared to the dose profile according to the sphere size established in the treatment plan Results: The PET-CT activity profile decreased rapidly at the distal falloff position in the 37 mm, 28 mm, and 22 mm spheres as well as the dose profile. However, in the SOBP section, which is a range for evaluating the range, the results in the proximal part of the activity profile are different from those of the dose profile, and the distal falloff position is compared with the proton therapy plan and PET-CT As a result, the maximum difference of 1.4 mm at the 50 % point of the Max dose, 1.1 mm at the 45 % point at the 28 mm sphere, and the difference at the 22 mm sphere at the maximum point of 1.2 mm were all less than 1.5 mm in the 37 mm sphere. Conclusion: To maximize the advantages of proton therapy, it is very important to verify the range of the proton beam. In this study, the proton range was confirmed by the SOBP and the distal falloff position of the proton beam using PET-CT. As a result, the difference of the distally falloff position between the activity distribution measured by PET-CT and the proton therapy plan was 1.4 mm, respectively. This may be used as a reference for the dose margin applied in the proton therapy plan.

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No-tillage Agriculture of Korean-Type on Recycled Ridge I. Changes in Physical Properties : Soil Crack, Penetration Resistance, Drainage, and Capacity to Retain Water at Plastic Film Greenhouse Soil by Different Tillage System (두둑을 재활용한 한국형 무경운 농업 I. 경운방법에 따른 시설재배 토양의 물리적 특성: 균열, 관입저항, 배수, 보수력 변화)

  • Yang, Seung-Koo;Jung, Woo-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.699-717
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    • 2016
  • This study was carried out to investigate the effect of no-tillage on sequential cropping supported from recycling of first crop ridge on the growth of pepper plant and physical properties of soil under green house condition. 1. Degree of crack on soil by tillage and no-tillage Soil cracks found in ridge and not found in row. At five months of tillage, crack number and crack length in length ridge were 3 and 37~51 cm in tillage. Maximum width and maximum depth in length ridge were 30 mm and 15.3cm in tillage. Crack number and crack length in width ridge were 7.5 and 7~28 cm in tillage. Maximum width and maximum depth in width ridge were 29 mm and 15.3 cm in tillage. At a year of no-tillage, crack number and crack length in length ridge were 1.0 and 140~200 cm in tillage. Maximum width and maximum depth in length ridge were 18 mm and 30 cm in a year of no-tillage. Crack number and crack length in width ridge were 11 and 6~22 cm in a year of no-tillage. Maximum width and maximum depth in width ridge were 22 mm and 18.5 cm in a year of no-tillage. Soil crack was not found at 2 years of no-tillage in sandy Jungdong series (jd) soil. Soil crack was found at 7 years of no-tillage in clayish Jisan series (ji) soil. 2. Penetration resistance on soil Penetration resistance was increased significantly at no-tillage in Jungdong series (jd). Depth of cultivation layer was extended at no-tillage soil compared with tillage soil. Penetration resistance of plow pan was decreased at 1 year of no-tillage compared with than tillage soil. Penetration resistance was linearly increased with increasing soil depth at tillage in Jisan series (ji). Penetration resistance on top soil was remarkably increased and then maintained continuously at no-tillage soil. 3. Drainage and moisture content of soil Moisture content of ridge in top soil was not significant difference at both tillage and no-tillage. Moisture content of ridge in 20 cm soil was 14% at no-tillage soil and 25% at tillage soil. 4. Change of capacity to retain water in soil Capacity to retain water in top soil was not significant difference at 1 bar both tillage and no-tillage. Capacity to retain water in soil was slightly higher tendency in 1 year and 2 years of no-tillage soil than tillage soil. Capacity to retain water in soil was increased at 15 bar both tillage and no-tillage. Capacity to retain water in subsoil was slightly higher tendency at 1 bar and 3 bar in 2 years of no-tillage than tillage soil and a year of no-tillage soil.

The Diagnostic Yield and Complications of Percutaneous Needle Aspiration Biopsy for the Intrathoracic Lesions (경피적 폐생검의 진단성적 및 합병증)

  • Jang, Seung Hun;Kim, Cheal Hyeon;Koh, Won Jung;Yoo, Chul-Gyu;Kim, Young Whan;Han, Sung Koo;Shim, Young-Soo
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.916-924
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    • 1996
  • Bacground : Percutaneous needle aspiration biopsy (PCNA) is one of the most frequently used diagnostic methcxJs for intrathoracic lesions. Previous studies have reponed wide range of diagnostic yield from 28 to 98%. However, diagnostic yield has been increased by accumulation of experience, improvement of needle and the image guiding systems. We analysed the results of PCNA performed for one year to evaluate the diagnostic yield, the rate and severity of complications and factors affecting the diagnostic yield. Method : 287 PCNAs undergone in 236 patients from January, 1994 to December, 1994 were analysed retrospectively. The intrathoracic lesions was targeted and aspirated with 21 - 23 G Chiba needle under fluoroscopic guiding system. Occasionally, 19 - 20 G Biopsy gun was used for core tissue specimen. The specimen was requested for microbiologic, cytologic and histopathologic examination in the case of obtained core tissue. Diagnostic yields and complication rate of benign and malignant lesions were ca1culaled based on patients' chans. The comparison for the diagnostic yields according to size and shape of the lesions was analysed with chi square test (p<0.05). Results : There are 19.9% of consolidative lesion and 80.1% of nodular or mass lesion, and the lesion is located at the right upper lobe in 26.3% of cases, the right middle lobe in 6.4%, the right lower lobe 21.2%, the left upper lobe in 16.8%, the left lower lobe in 10.6%, and mediastinum in 1.3%. The lesion distributed over 2 lobes is as many as 17.4% of cases. There are 74 patients with benign lesions, 142 patients with malignant lesions in final diagnosis and confirmative diagnosis was not made in 22 patients despite of all available diagnostic methods. 2 patients have lung cancer and pulmonary tuberculosis concomittantly. Experience with 236 patients showed that PCNA can diagnose benign lesions in 62.2% (42 patients) of patients with such lesions and malignant lesions in 82.4% (117 patients) of patients. For the patients in whom the first PCNA failed to make diagnosis, the procedure was repeated and the cumulative diagnostic yield was increased as 44.6%, 60.8%, 62.2% in benign lesions and as 73.4%, 81.7%, 82.4% in malignant lesions through serial PCNA. Thoracotomy was performed in 9 patients with benign lesions and in 43 patients with malignant lesions. PCNA and thoracotomy showed the same pathologic result in 44.4% (4 patients) of benign lesions and 58.1% (25 patients) of malignant lesions. Thoracotomy confirmed 4 patients with malignat lesions against benign result of PCNA and 2 patients with benign lesions against malignant result of PCNA. There are 1.0% (3 cases) of hemoptysis, 19.2% (55 cases) of blood tinged sputum, 12.5% (36 cases) of pneumothorax and 1.0% (3 cases) of fever through 287 times of PCNA. Hemoptysis and blood tinged sputum didn't need therapy. 8 cases of pneumothorax needed insertion of classical chest tube or pig-tail catheter. Fever subsided within 48 hours in all cases. There was no difference between size and shape of lesion with diagnostic yield. Conclusion: PCNA shows relatively high diagnostic yield and mild degree complications but the accuracy of histologic diagnosis has to be improved.

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Requirement and Perception of Parents on the Subject of Home Economics in Middle School (중학교 가정교과에 대한 학부모의 인식 및 요구도)

  • Shin Hyo-Shick;Park Mi-Soog
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.18 no.3 s.41
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study is that I should look for a desirous directions about home economics by studying the requirements and perception of the high school parents who have finished the course of home economics. It was about 600 parents whom I have searched Seoul-Pusan, Ganwon. Ghynggi province, Choongcheong-Gyungsang province, Cheonla and Jeju province of 600, I chose only 560 as apparently suitable research. The questions include 61 requirements about home economics and one which we never fail to keep among the contents, whenever possible and one about the perception of home economics aims 11 about the perception of home economics courses and management. The collections were analyzed frequency, percent, mean. standard deviation t-test by using SAS program. The followings is the summary result of studying of it. 1. All the boys and girls learning together about the Idea of healthy lives and desirous human formulation and knowledge together are higher. 2. Among the teaching purposes of home economics, the item of the scientific principle and knowledge for improvements of home life shows 15.7% below average value. 3. The recognition degree about the quality of home economics is highly related with the real life, and about the system. we recognize lacking in periods and contents of home economics field and about guiding content, accomplishment and application qualities are higher regardless of sex. 4. The important term which we should emphasize in the subject of home economics is family part. 5. Among the needs of home economic requirement in freshman, in the middle unit, their growth and development are higher than anything else, representing 4.11, and by contrast the basic principle and actuality is 3.70, which is lowest among them. 6. In the case of second grade requirement of home economics content for parents in the middle unit young man and consuming life is 4.09 highest. 7. In the case of 3rd grade requirement of economics contents in the middle unit the choice of coming direction and job ethics is highest 4.16, and preparing meals and evaluation is lowest 3.50.

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A Study on Recent Research Trend in Management of Technology Using Keywords Network Analysis (키워드 네트워크 분석을 통해 살펴본 기술경영의 최근 연구동향)

  • Kho, Jaechang;Cho, Kuentae;Cho, Yoonho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.101-123
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    • 2013
  • Recently due to the advancements of science and information technology, the socio-economic business areas are changing from the industrial economy to a knowledge economy. Furthermore, companies need to do creation of new value through continuous innovation, development of core competencies and technologies, and technological convergence. Therefore, the identification of major trends in technology research and the interdisciplinary knowledge-based prediction of integrated technologies and promising techniques are required for firms to gain and sustain competitive advantage and future growth engines. The aim of this paper is to understand the recent research trend in management of technology (MOT) and to foresee promising technologies with deep knowledge for both technology and business. Furthermore, this study intends to give a clear way to find new technical value for constant innovation and to capture core technology and technology convergence. Bibliometrics is a metrical analysis to understand literature's characteristics. Traditional bibliometrics has its limitation not to understand relationship between trend in technology management and technology itself, since it focuses on quantitative indices such as quotation frequency. To overcome this issue, the network focused bibliometrics has been used instead of traditional one. The network focused bibliometrics mainly uses "Co-citation" and "Co-word" analysis. In this study, a keywords network analysis, one of social network analysis, is performed to analyze recent research trend in MOT. For the analysis, we collected keywords from research papers published in international journals related MOT between 2002 and 2011, constructed a keyword network, and then conducted the keywords network analysis. Over the past 40 years, the studies in social network have attempted to understand the social interactions through the network structure represented by connection patterns. In other words, social network analysis has been used to explain the structures and behaviors of various social formations such as teams, organizations, and industries. In general, the social network analysis uses data as a form of matrix. In our context, the matrix depicts the relations between rows as papers and columns as keywords, where the relations are represented as binary. Even though there are no direct relations between papers who have been published, the relations between papers can be derived artificially as in the paper-keyword matrix, in which each cell has 1 for including or 0 for not including. For example, a keywords network can be configured in a way to connect the papers which have included one or more same keywords. After constructing a keywords network, we analyzed frequency of keywords, structural characteristics of keywords network, preferential attachment and growth of new keywords, component, and centrality. The results of this study are as follows. First, a paper has 4.574 keywords on the average. 90% of keywords were used three or less times for past 10 years and about 75% of keywords appeared only one time. Second, the keyword network in MOT is a small world network and a scale free network in which a small number of keywords have a tendency to become a monopoly. Third, the gap between the rich (with more edges) and the poor (with fewer edges) in the network is getting bigger as time goes on. Fourth, most of newly entering keywords become poor nodes within about 2~3 years. Finally, keywords with high degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and closeness centrality are "Innovation," "R&D," "Patent," "Forecast," "Technology transfer," "Technology," and "SME". The results of analysis will help researchers identify major trends in MOT research and then seek a new research topic. We hope that the result of the analysis will help researchers of MOT identify major trends in technology research, and utilize as useful reference information when they seek consilience with other fields of study and select a new research topic.

Dynamic Virtual Ontology using Tags with Semantic Relationship on Social-web to Support Effective Search (효율적 자원 탐색을 위한 소셜 웹 태그들을 이용한 동적 가상 온톨로지 생성 연구)

  • Lee, Hyun Jung;Sohn, Mye
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.19-33
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    • 2013
  • In this research, a proposed Dynamic Virtual Ontology using Tags (DyVOT) supports dynamic search of resources depending on user's requirements using tags from social web driven resources. It is general that the tags are defined by annotations of a series of described words by social users who usually tags social information resources such as web-page, images, u-tube, videos, etc. Therefore, tags are characterized and mirrored by information resources. Therefore, it is possible for tags as meta-data to match into some resources. Consequently, we can extract semantic relationships between tags owing to the dependency of relationships between tags as representatives of resources. However, to do this, there is limitation because there are allophonic synonym and homonym among tags that are usually marked by a series of words. Thus, research related to folksonomies using tags have been applied to classification of words by semantic-based allophonic synonym. In addition, some research are focusing on clustering and/or classification of resources by semantic-based relationships among tags. In spite of, there also is limitation of these research because these are focusing on semantic-based hyper/hypo relationships or clustering among tags without consideration of conceptual associative relationships between classified or clustered groups. It makes difficulty to effective searching resources depending on user requirements. In this research, the proposed DyVOT uses tags and constructs ontologyfor effective search. We assumed that tags are extracted from user requirements, which are used to construct multi sub-ontology as combinations of tags that are composed of a part of the tags or all. In addition, the proposed DyVOT constructs ontology which is based on hierarchical and associative relationships among tags for effective search of a solution. The ontology is composed of static- and dynamic-ontology. The static-ontology defines semantic-based hierarchical hyper/hypo relationships among tags as in (http://semanticcloud.sandra-siegel.de/) with a tree structure. From the static-ontology, the DyVOT extracts multi sub-ontology using multi sub-tag which are constructed by parts of tags. Finally, sub-ontology are constructed by hierarchy paths which contain the sub-tag. To create dynamic-ontology by the proposed DyVOT, it is necessary to define associative relationships among multi sub-ontology that are extracted from hierarchical relationships of static-ontology. The associative relationship is defined by shared resources between tags which are linked by multi sub-ontology. The association is measured by the degree of shared resources that are allocated into the tags of sub-ontology. If the value of association is larger than threshold value, then associative relationship among tags is newly created. The associative relationships are used to merge and construct new hierarchy the multi sub-ontology. To construct dynamic-ontology, it is essential to defined new class which is linked by two more sub-ontology, which is generated by merged tags which are highly associative by proving using shared resources. Thereby, the class is applied to generate new hierarchy with extracted multi sub-ontology to create a dynamic-ontology. The new class is settle down on the ontology. So, the newly created class needs to be belong to the dynamic-ontology. So, the class used to new hyper/hypo hierarchy relationship between the class and tags which are linked to multi sub-ontology. At last, DyVOT is developed by newly defined associative relationships which are extracted from hierarchical relationships among tags. Resources are matched into the DyVOT which narrows down search boundary and shrinks the search paths. Finally, we can create the DyVOT using the newly defined associative relationships. While static data catalog (Dean and Ghemawat, 2004; 2008) statically searches resources depending on user requirements, the proposed DyVOT dynamically searches resources using multi sub-ontology by parallel processing. In this light, the DyVOT supports improvement of correctness and agility of search and decreasing of search effort by reduction of search path.

A Study on the Architecture of the Original Nine-Story Wooden Pagoda at Hwangnyongsa Temple (황룡사 창건 구층목탑 단상)

  • Lee, Ju-heun
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.52 no.2
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    • pp.196-219
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    • 2019
  • According to the Samguk Yusa, the nine-story wooden pagoda at Hwangnyongsa Temple was built by a Baekje artisan named Abiji in 645. Until the temple was burnt down completely during the Mongol invasion of Korea in 1238, it was the greatest symbol of the spiritual culture of the Korean people at that time and played an important role in the development of Buddhist thought in the country for about 700 years. At present, the only remaining features of Hwangnyongsa Temple, which is now in ruins, are the pagoda's stylobate and several foundation stones. In the past, many researchers made diverse inferences concerning the restoration of the original structure and the overall architecture of the wooden pagoda at Hwangnyongsa Temple, based on written records and excavation data. However, this information, together with the remaining external structure of the pagoda site and the assumption that it was a simple wooden structure, actually suggest that it was a rectangular-shaped nine-story pagoda. It is assumed that such ideas were suggested at a time when there was a lack of relevant data and limited knowledge on the subject, as well as insufficient information about the technical lineage of the wooden pagoda at Hwangnyongsa Temple; therefore, these ideas should be revised in respect of the discovery of new data and an improved level of awareness about the structural features of large ancient Buddhist pagodas. This study focused on the necessity of raising awareness of the lineage and structure of the wooden pagoda at Hwangnyongsa Temple and gaining a broader understanding of the structural system of ancient Buddhist pagodas in East Asia. The study is based on a reanalysis of data about the site of the wooden pagoda obtained through research on the restoration of Hwangnyongsa Temple, which has been ongoing since 2005. It is estimated that the wooden pagoda underwent at least two large-scale repairs between the Unified Silla and Goryeo periods, during which the size of the stylobate and the floor plan were changed and, accordingly, the upper structure was modified to a significant degree. Judging by the features discovered during excavation and investigation, traces relating to the nine-story wooden pagoda built during the Three Kingdoms Period include the earth on which the stylobate was built and the central pillar's supporting stone, which had been reinstalled using the rammed earth technique, as well as other foundation stones and stylobate stone materials that most probably date back to the ninth century or earlier. It seems that the foundation stones and stylobate stone materials were new when the reliquaries were enshrined again in the pagoda after the Unified Silla period, so the first story and upper structure would have been of a markedly different size to those of the original wooden pagoda. In addition, during the Goryeo period, these foundation stones were rearranged, and the cover stone was newly installed; therefore, the pagoda would seem to have undergone significant changes in size and structure compared to previous periods. Consequently, the actual structure of the original wooden pagoda at Hwangnyongsa Temple should be understood in terms of the changes in large Buddhist pagodas built in East Asia at that time, and the technical lineage should start with the large Buddhist pagodas of the Baekje dynasty, which were influenced by the Northern dynasty of China. Furthermore, based on the archeological data obtained from the analysis of the images of the nine-story rock-carved pagoda depicted on the Rock-carved Buddhas in Tapgok Valley at Namsan Mountain in Gyeongju, and the gilt-bronze rail fragments excavated from the lecture hall at the site of Hwangnyongsa Temple, the wooden pagoda would appear to have originally been an octagonal nine-story pagoda with a dual structure, rather than a simple rectangular wooden structure.

Robo-Advisor Algorithm with Intelligent View Model (지능형 전망모형을 결합한 로보어드바이저 알고리즘)

  • Kim, Sunwoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.39-55
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    • 2019
  • Recently banks and large financial institutions have introduced lots of Robo-Advisor products. Robo-Advisor is a Robot to produce the optimal asset allocation portfolio for investors by using the financial engineering algorithms without any human intervention. Since the first introduction in Wall Street in 2008, the market size has grown to 60 billion dollars and is expected to expand to 2,000 billion dollars by 2020. Since Robo-Advisor algorithms suggest asset allocation output to investors, mathematical or statistical asset allocation strategies are applied. Mean variance optimization model developed by Markowitz is the typical asset allocation model. The model is a simple but quite intuitive portfolio strategy. For example, assets are allocated in order to minimize the risk on the portfolio while maximizing the expected return on the portfolio using optimization techniques. Despite its theoretical background, both academics and practitioners find that the standard mean variance optimization portfolio is very sensitive to the expected returns calculated by past price data. Corner solutions are often found to be allocated only to a few assets. The Black-Litterman Optimization model overcomes these problems by choosing a neutral Capital Asset Pricing Model equilibrium point. Implied equilibrium returns of each asset are derived from equilibrium market portfolio through reverse optimization. The Black-Litterman model uses a Bayesian approach to combine the subjective views on the price forecast of one or more assets with implied equilibrium returns, resulting a new estimates of risk and expected returns. These new estimates can produce optimal portfolio by the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization algorithm. If the investor does not have any views on his asset classes, the Black-Litterman optimization model produce the same portfolio as the market portfolio. What if the subjective views are incorrect? A survey on reports of stocks performance recommended by securities analysts show very poor results. Therefore the incorrect views combined with implied equilibrium returns may produce very poor portfolio output to the Black-Litterman model users. This paper suggests an objective investor views model based on Support Vector Machines(SVM), which have showed good performance results in stock price forecasting. SVM is a discriminative classifier defined by a separating hyper plane. The linear, radial basis and polynomial kernel functions are used to learn the hyper planes. Input variables for the SVM are returns, standard deviations, Stochastics %K and price parity degree for each asset class. SVM output returns expected stock price movements and their probabilities, which are used as input variables in the intelligent views model. The stock price movements are categorized by three phases; down, neutral and up. The expected stock returns make P matrix and their probability results are used in Q matrix. Implied equilibrium returns vector is combined with the intelligent views matrix, resulting the Black-Litterman optimal portfolio. For comparisons, Markowitz mean-variance optimization model and risk parity model are used. The value weighted market portfolio and equal weighted market portfolio are used as benchmark indexes. We collect the 8 KOSPI 200 sector indexes from January 2008 to December 2018 including 132 monthly index values. Training period is from 2008 to 2015 and testing period is from 2016 to 2018. Our suggested intelligent view model combined with implied equilibrium returns produced the optimal Black-Litterman portfolio. The out of sample period portfolio showed better performance compared with the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization portfolio, risk parity portfolio and market portfolio. The total return from 3 year-period Black-Litterman portfolio records 6.4%, which is the highest value. The maximum draw down is -20.8%, which is also the lowest value. Sharpe Ratio shows the highest value, 0.17. It measures the return to risk ratio. Overall, our suggested view model shows the possibility of replacing subjective analysts's views with objective view model for practitioners to apply the Robo-Advisor asset allocation algorithms in the real trading fields.