• Title/Summary/Keyword: data-fitting

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Application of a Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression Analysis to Explore Spatial Varying Relationship Between Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Incidence and Associated Determinants (공간가중 포아송 회귀모형을 이용한 고병원성 조류인플루엔자 발생에 영향을 미치는 결정인자의 공간이질성 분석)

  • Choi, Sung-Hyun;Pak, Son-Il
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.7-14
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    • 2019
  • In South Korea, six large outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) have occurred since the first confirmation in 2003 from chickens. For the past 15 years, HPAI outbreaks have become an annual phenomenon throughout the country and has extended to wider regions, across rural and urban environments. An understanding of the spatial epidemiology of HPAI occurrence is essential in assessing and managing the risk of the infection; however, local spatial variations of relationship between HPAI incidences in Korea and related risk factors have rarely been derived. This study examined whether spatial heterogeneity exists in this relationship, using a geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) model. The outcome variable was the number of HPAI-positive farms at 252 Si-Gun-Gu (administrative boundaries in Korea) level notified to government authority during the period from January 2014 to April 2016. This response variable was regressed to a set of sociodemographic and topographic predictors, including the number of wild birds infected with HPAI virus, the number of wintering birds and their species migrated into Korea, the movement frequency of vehicles carrying animals, the volume of manure treated per day, the number of livestock farms, and mean elevation. Both global and local modeling techniques were employed to fit the model. From 2014 to 2016, a total of 403 HPAI-positive farms were reported with high incidence especially in western coastal regions, ranging from 0 to 74. The results of this study show that local model (adjusted R-square = 0.801, AIC = 954.5) has great advantages over corresponding global model (adjusted R-square = 0.408, AIC = 2323.1) in terms of model fitting and performance. The relationship between HPAI incidence in Korea and seven predictors under consideration were significantly spatially non-stationary, contrary to assumptions in the global model. The comparison between global Poisson and GWPR results indicated that a place-specific spatial analysis not only fit the data better, but also provided insights into understanding the non-stationarity of the associations between the HPAI and associated determinants. We demonstrated that an empirically derived GWPR model has the potential to serve as a useful tool for assessing spatially varying characteristics of HPAI incidences for a given local area and predicting the risk area of HPAI occurrence. Considering the prominent burden of HPAI this study provides more insights into spatial targeting of enhanced surveillance and control strategies in high-risk regions against HPAI outbreaks.

A Study of the Nonlinear Characteristics Improvement for a Electronic Scale using Multiple Regression Analysis (다항식 회귀분석을 이용한 전자저울의 비선형 특성 개선 연구)

  • Chae, Gyoo-Soo
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the development of a weight estimation model of electronic scale with nonlinear characteristics is presented using polynomial regression analysis. The output voltage of the load cell was measured directly using the reference mass. And a polynomial regression model was obtained using the matrix and curve fitting function of MS Office Excel. The weight was measured in 100g units using a load cell electronic scale measuring up to 5kg and the polynomial regression model was obtained. The error was calculated for simple($1^{st}$), $2^{nd}$ and $3^{rd}$ order polynomial regression. To analyze the suitability of the regression function for each model, the coefficient of determination was presented to indicate the correlation between the estimated mass and the measured data. Using the third order polynomial model proposed here, a very accurate model was obtained with a standard deviation of 10g and the determinant coefficient of 1.0. Based on the theory of multi regression model presented here, it can be used in various statistical researches such as weather forecast, new drug development and economic indicators analysis using logistic regression analysis, which has been widely used in artificial intelligence fields.

Measuring the Goodness of Fit of Link Reduction Algorithms for Mapping Intellectual Structures in Bibliometric Analysis (계량서지적 분석에서 지적구조 매핑을 위한 링크 삭감 알고리즘의 적합도 측정)

  • Lee, Jae Yun
    • Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.233-254
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    • 2022
  • Link reduction algorithms such as pathfinder network are the widely used methods to overcome problems with the visualization of weighted networks for knowledge domain analysis. This study proposed NetRSQ, an indicator to measure the goodness of fit of a link reduction algorithm for the network visualization. NetRSQ is developed to calculate the fitness of a network based on the rank correlation between the path length and the degree of association between entities. The validity of NetRSQ was investigated with data from previous research which qualitatively evaluated several network generation algorithms. As the primary test result, the higher degree of NetRSQ appeared in the network with better intellectual structures in the quality evaluation of networks built by various methods. The performance of 4 link reduction algorithms was tested in 40 datasets from various domains and compared with NetRSQ. The test shows that there is no specific link reduction algorithm that performs better over others in all cases. Therefore, the NetRSQ can be a useful tool as a basis of reliability to select the most fitting algorithm for the network visualization of intellectual structures.

Korean listeners' mode of perceiving the durational variations of /s/ as prolongations (한국어 평마찰음 /s/ 연장음에 대한 비유창성 양상 연구)

  • Park, Jin;Go, Boksun;Park, Sohyun
    • Phonetics and Speech Sciences
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.67-76
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    • 2022
  • This study aimed to examine Korean listeners' mode of perceiving sound duration as prolongation, whether dichotomous or continuous. Thirty-five Korean participants (17 men and 18 women) listened to the Korean segment /s/, which was lengthened by 0-980ms in 20-ms increments. Then, the participants were asked to rate each version of the sound based on a rating of one to 100 (the closer to 100, the more disfluent). To examine whether listeners perceived durational variations for the fricative segment dichotomously or continuously, a curve was estimated using the best-fitting regression model for the observed data with the highest adjusted R-squared value. The mode of perceiving durational variations for the segment was continuous (or gradient) rather than discontinuous (or dichotomous). No gender difference was found in the mode of perceiving prolongation. However, there was a significant gender difference in that men rated the most disfluent sounds higher than women. The findings of this study were further discussed in relation to the existing literature, and clinical implications for the assessment of stuttering were presented.

The Effect of Ground Heterogeneity on the GPR Signal: Numerical Analysis (지반의 불균질성이 GPR탐사 신호에 미치는 영향에 대한 수치해석적 분석)

  • Lee, Sangyun;Song, Ki-il;Ryu, Heehwan;Kang, Kyungnam
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.23 no.8
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    • pp.29-36
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    • 2022
  • The importance of subsurface information is becoming crucial in urban area due to increase of underground construction. The position of underground facilities should be identified precisely before excavation work. Geophyiscal exporation method such as ground penetration radar (GPR) can be useful to investigate the subsurface facilities. GPR transmits electromagnetic waves to the ground and analyzes the reflected signals to determine the location and depth of subsurface facilities. Unfortunately, the readability of GPR signal is not favorable. To overcome this deficiency and automate the GPR signal processing, deep learning technique has been introduced recently. The accuracy of deep learning model can be improved with abundant training data. The ground is inherently heteorogeneous and the spacially variable ground properties can affact on the GPR signal. However, the effect of ground heterogeneity on the GPR signal has yet to be fully investigated. In this study, ground heterogeneity is simulated based on the fractal theory and GPR simulation is carried out by using gprMax. It is found that as the fractal dimension increases exceed 2.0, the error of fitting parameter reduces significantly. And the range of water content should be less than 0.14 to secure the validity of analysis.

Nonlinear mixed models for characterization of growth trajectory of New Zealand rabbits raised in tropical climate

  • de Sousa, Vanusa Castro;Biagiotti, Daniel;Sarmento, Jose Lindenberg Rocha;Sena, Luciano Silva;Barroso, Priscila Alves;Barjud, Sued Felipe Lacerda;de Sousa Almeida, Marisa Karen;da Silva Santos, Natanael Pereira
    • Animal Bioscience
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.648-658
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    • 2022
  • Objective: The identification of nonlinear mixed models that describe the growth trajectory of New Zealand rabbits was performed based on weight records and carcass measures obtained using ultrasonography. Methods: Phenotypic records of body weight (BW) and loin eye area (LEA) were collected from 66 animals raised in a didactic-productive module of cuniculture located in the southern Piaui state, Brazil. The following nonlinear models were tested considering fixed parameters: Brody, Gompertz, Logistic, Richards, Meloun 1, modified Michaelis-Menten, Santana, and von Bertalanffy. The coefficient of determination (R2), mean squared error, percentage of convergence of each model (%C), mean absolute deviation of residuals, Akaike information criterion (AIC), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) were used to determine the best model. The model that best described the growth trajectory for each trait was also used under the context of mixed models, considering two parameters that admit biological interpretation (A and k) with random effects. Results: The von Bertalanffy model was the best fitting model for BW according to the highest value of R2 (0.98) and lowest values of AIC (6,675.30) and BIC (6,691.90). For LEA, the Logistic model was the most appropriate due to the results of R2 (0.52), AIC (783.90), and BIC (798.40) obtained using this model. The absolute growth rates estimated using the von Bertalanffy and Logistic models for BW and LEA were 21.51g/d and 3.16 cm2, respectively. The relative growth rates at the inflection point were 0.028 for BW (von Bertalanffy) and 0.014 for LEA (Logistic). Conclusion: The von Bertalanffy and Logistic models with random effect at the asymptotic weight are recommended for analysis of ponderal and carcass growth trajectories in New Zealand rabbits. The inclusion of random effects in the asymptotic weight and maturity rate improves the quality of fit in comparison to fixed models.

Risk Spillover between Shipping Company's Stock Price and Marine Freight Index (해운선사 주가와 해상운임지수 사이의 위험 전이효과)

  • Choi Ki-Hong
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.115-129
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    • 2023
  • This study analyzed the risk spillover of BDI on shipping company stock prices through the Copula-CoVaR method based on daily data from January 4, 2010, to October 31, 2022. The main empirical analysis results and policy implications are as follows. First, copula results showed that there was a weak dependence between BDI and shipping company stock prices, and PAN, KOR, and YEN were selected as the most fitting model for dynamic Student-t copula, HMM was selected as the rotated Gumbel copula, and KSS was selected as the best model. Second, in the results of CoVaR, it was confirmed that the upside (downside) CoVaR was significantly different from the upside (downside) VaR in all shipping companies. This means that BDI has a significant risk spillover on shipping companies. In addition, as for the risk spillover, the downside risk is generally lower than the upside risk, so the downside and upside risk spillover were found to be asymmetrical. Therefore, policymakers should strengthen external risk supervision and establish differentiated policies suitable for domestic conditions to prevent systematic risks from BDI shocks. And investors should reflect external risks from BDI fluctuations in their investment decisions and construct optimal investment portfolios to avoid risks. On the other hand, investors propose that the investment portfolio should be adjusted in consideration of the asymmetric characteristics of up and down risks when making investment decisions.

A Survey on the Purchase and Preference of Golf Wear for Men and Women in Their 40s, 50, and 60s (40~60대 남녀의 골프웨어 구매 및 선호실태조사)

  • Kyung Ja Paek
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.727-737
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    • 2023
  • This study aimed to provide basic data for the design and R&D of golf wear intended for 64 people in their 40s, 50s, and 60s by identifying the needs for golfers through a survey of golf wear purchasing conditions and preferences. The findings shows that purchases are made at permanent discount stores, and information about products are discovered through TV and Internet advertisements. Golf wear is purchased once or twice a year, with annual expenditures ranging from KRW 500,000 to less than 1 million, with single purchases ranging from KRW 200,000 to less than 500,000. When purchasing golf wear, design was considered first, with women preferring white garment, while men preferred black and gray ones. Men tended to prefer a PK collar button fastening style, while women preferred a knit style with a round neckline. Women preferred semi-fitted and fitted styles, while men preferred semi-fitted and loose-fitting styles, showing significant differences. When considering the production of golf wear, the younger the age of the consumer, the more the results indicated that the design needed to look younger, so it is the necessary to design golf wear that reflects the functional need of golfer while prioritizing designs for various ages.

Dynamic analysis of a coupled steel-concrete composite box girder bridge-train system considering shear lag, constrained torsion, distortion and biaxial slip

  • Li Zhu;Ray Kai-Leung Su;Wei Liu;Tian-Nan Han;Chao Chen
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.207-233
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    • 2023
  • Steel-concrete composite box girder bridges are widely used in the construction of highway and railway bridges both domestically and abroad due to their advantages of being light weight and having a large spanning ability and very large torsional rigidity. Composite box girder bridges exhibit the effects of shear lag, restrained torsion, distortion and interface bidirectional slip under various loads during operation. As one of the most commonly used calculation tools in bridge engineering analysis, one-dimensional models offer the advantages of high calculation efficiency and strong stability. Currently, research on the one-dimensional model of composite beams mainly focuses on simulating interface longitudinal slip and the shear lag effect. There are relatively few studies on the one-dimensional model which can consider the effects of restrained torsion, distortion and interface transverse slip. Additionally, there are few studies on vehicle-bridge integrated systems where a one-dimensional model is used as a tool that only considers the calculations of natural frequency, mode and moving load conditions to study the dynamic response of composite beams. Some scholars have established a dynamic analysis model of a coupled composite beam bridge-train system, but where the composite beam is only simulated using a Euler beam or Timoshenko beam. As a result, it is impossible to comprehensively consider multiple complex force effects, such as shear lag, restrained torsion, distortion and interface bidirectional slip of composite beams. In this paper, a 27 DOF vehicle rigid body model is used to simulate train operation. A two-node 26 DOF finite beam element with composed box beams considering the effects of shear lag, restrained torsion, distortion and interface bidirectional slip is proposed. The dynamic analysis model of the coupled composite box girder bridge-train system is constructed based on the wheel-rail contact relationship of vertical close-fitting and lateral linear creeping slip. Furthermore, the accuracy of the dynamic analysis model is verified via the measured dynamic response data of a practical composite box girder bridge. Finally, the dynamic analysis model is applied in order to study the influence of various mechanical effects on the dynamic performance of the vehicle-bridge system.

Determination of Maximum Shear Modulus of Sandy Soil Using Pressuremeter Tests (프레셔미터 시험을 이용한 사질토 지반의 최대 전단탄성계수 결정)

  • Kwon, Hyung Min;Jang, Soon Ho;Chung, Choong Ki
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.3C
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    • pp.179-186
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    • 2008
  • Pressuremeter test estimates the deformational properties of soil from the relationship between applied pressure and the displacement of cavity wall. It is general to utilize the reloading curve for the estimation of deformational properties of soil because the initial loading curve can be affected by the disturbance caused by boring. On the other hand, the instrumental resolution or the variation of measured data makes it hard to estimate the maximum shear modulus from pressuremeter test results. This study suggested the methodology estimating the maximum shear modulus from pressuremeter test directly, based on the curve fitting of reloading curve. In addition, the difference was taken into account between the stress state around the probe in reloading and that of the in-situ state. Pressuremeter tests were conducted for 15 cases using a large calibration chamber, together with a number of reference tests. The maximum shear moduli taken from suggested method were compared with those from empirical correlation and bender element test.