• Title/Summary/Keyword: dam risk analysis

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A study on Location Condition for Erosion Control Dam - Focus on Chungcheong region and Kyeongsangbuk-do - (사방댐 입지조건에 관한 연구 - 충청지역과 경북지역을 중심으로 -)

  • Park, Sae-Jun;Lee, Joon-Woo;Choi, Yeon-Ho;Kim, Myeong-Jun;Kweon, Hyeong-Keun;Jeon, Yong-Jun
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.223-229
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    • 2010
  • This study is to analyze location conditions for erosion control dams to be constructed in Chungcheongnam-do, Daejeon Metropolitan City, Chungcheongbuk-do and Gyeongsangbuk-do in order to establish proper conditions for erosion control dams in the future. 199 sites where erosion control dams are expected to be built in 2010 were chosen and investigated in terms of 12 factors including basin area, basin slope, and landslide risk. The results showed that erosion control dams for Chungcheongnam-do and Daejeon Metropolitan City are mostly impermeable gravity dams mainly composed of concrete. In contrast, Chungcheongbuk-do and Gyeongsangbuk-do are increasing the number of permeable or compound erosion control dams. Basin analysis at planned erosion control dam sites showed that at least 44.5% of the total area has high landslide risk. Gyeongsangbuk-do had the largest basin area for erosion control dam sites at 157.3ha, followed by Chungcheongbuk-do at 64.4ha and Chungcheongnam-do at 54.8ha. Analysis of sand deposits in the Chungcheongnam-do erosion control dam built in 2010 confirmed an average deposit of 971.8m3. The sand deposit capacity and amount of sediment control for erosion control dams have a very low correlation with basin area or flow path slope, and this needs to be addressed in future sand deposit capacity designs.

Earthquake safety assessment of an arch dam using an anisotropic damage model for mass concrete

  • Xue, Xinhua;Yang, Xingguo
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.633-648
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    • 2014
  • The seismic safety of concrete dams is one of the important problems in the engineering due to the vast socio-economic disasters which may be caused by collapse of these infrastructures. The accuracy of the risk evaluation associated with these existing dams as well as the efficient design of future dams is highly dependent on a proper understanding of their behaviour due to earthquakes. This paper develops an anisotropic damage model for arch dam under strong earthquakes. The modified Drucker-Prager criterion is adopted as the failure criteria of the dynamic damage evolution of concrete. Some process fields and other necessary information for the safety evaluation are obtained. The numerical results show that the seismic behaviour of concrete dams can be satisfactorily predicted.

Comparison of flood inundation simulation between one- and two-dimensional numerical models for an emergency action plan of agricultural reservoirs

  • Kim, Jae Young;Jung, Sung Ho;Yeon, Min Ho;Lee, Gi Ha;Lee, Dae Eop
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.515-526
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    • 2021
  • The frequency of typhoons and torrential rainfalls has increased due to climate change, and the concurrent risk of breakage of dams and reservoirs has increased due to structural aging. To cope with the risk of dam breakage, a more accurate emergency action plan (EAP) must be established, and more advanced technology must be developed for the prediction of flooding. Hence, the present study proposes a method for establishing a more effective EAP by performing flood and inundation analyses using one- and two-dimensional models. The probable maximum flood (PMF) under the condition of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) was calculated for the target area, namely the Gyeong-cheon reservoir watershed. The breakage scenario of the Gyeong-cheon reservoir was then built up, and breakage simulations were conducted using the dam-break flood forecasting (DAMBRK) model. The results of the outflow analysis at the main locations were used as the basis for the one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) flood inundation analyses using the watershed modeling system (WMS) and the FLUvial Modeling ENgine (FLUMEN), respectively. The maximum inundation area between the Daehari-cheon confluence and the Naeseong-cheon location was compared for each model. The 1D flood inundation analysis gave an area of 21.3 km2, and the 2D flood inundation analysis gave an area of 21.9 km2. Although these results indicate an insignificant difference of 0.6 km2 in the inundation area between the two models, it should be noted that one of the main locations (namely, the Yonggung-myeon Administrative and Welfare Center) was not inundated in the 1D (WMS) model but inundated in the 2D (FLUMEN) model.

Seismic fragility evaluation of arch concrete dams through nonlinear incremental analysis using smeared crack model

  • Moradloo, Javad;Naserasadi, Kiarash;Zamani, Habib
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.68 no.6
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    • pp.747-760
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    • 2018
  • In the present study, a methodology for developing fragilities of arch concrete dams to assess their performance against seismic hazards is introduced. Firstly, the probability risk and fragility curves are presented, followed by implementation and representation of the way this method is used. Amirkabir arch concrete dam was subjected to non-linear dynamic analyses. A modified three dimensional rotating smeared crack model was used to take the nonlinear behavior of mass concrete into account. The proposed model considers major characteristics of mass concrete. These characteristics are pre-softening behavior, softening initiation criteria, fracture energy conservation, suitable damping mechanism and strain rate effect. In the present analysis, complete fluid-structure interaction is included to account for appropriate fluid compressibility and absorptive reservoir boundary conditions. In this study, the Amirkabir arch concrete dam is subjected to a set of 8 three-component earthquakes each scaled to 10 increasing intensity levels. Using proposed nonlinear smeared crack model, nonlinear analysis is performed where the structure is subjected to a large set of scaled and un-scaled ground motions and the maximum responses are extracted for each one and plotted. Based on the results, fragility curves were plotted according to various and possible damages indexes. Discrete damage probabilities were calculated using statistical methods for each considered performance level and incremental nonlinear analysis. Then, fragility curves were constructed based on the lognormal distribution assumption. Two damage indexes were introduced and compared to one another. The results indicate that the dam has a proper stability under earthquake conditions at MCE level. Moreover, displacement damages index is more conservative and impractical in the fragility analysis than tensional damage index.

A study on freeboard assessment of agricultural reservoirs considering climate change (기후변화를 고려한 농업용 저수지 여유고 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Ji-Hyeok;Moon, Young-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.371-381
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    • 2018
  • Domestic agricultural reservoir dam facilities are difficult to manage water resources because of the in summer rainfall increase due to aging and climate change, it is expected that the dam risk will be large due to the overflow. In this study, author selected study basin in order to evaluate hydrological safety of agricultural reservoir dam facilities. And calculated the probable rainfall, Present PMP, Future PMP considering climate change. Also, author carried quantitative analysis out for increasing rainfall due to climate change, analyze freeboard assessment of agricultural reservoir by calculate flood discharge, reservoir flood routing according to rainfall scenarios. As a result of evaluate hydrological safety of agricultural reservoir dam facilities using Future PMP considering climate change, Gosam, Kumkwang, Miho, Cheongcheon reservoir had the Highest Water Level over the design flood level, it is analyzed that it would be vulnerable to overflow risk.

Vulnerability Analysis in the Nakdong River Basin for the Utilization of Flood Risk Mapping (홍수위험지도 활용을 위한 낙동강 유역에서의 홍수취약도 분석)

  • Kim, Tae-Hyung;Han, Kun-Yeun;Cho, Wan-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.203-222
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    • 2011
  • The characteristics of flood damages have been increasingly strengthened and take the form of unpredictable and unusual weather phenomena caused by climate change and climate anomalies. To prevent inundation damage caused by breach of hydraulic structure such as dam or levee, and trouble of drainage of inner basin, the prediction necessity of flood inundation area, flood risk analysis, and drawing flood risk maps have been on the rise, and the national flood risk maps have been produced. In this study, the quantitative flood vulnerability analysis was performed, which represents population living within flood-affected areas, types of economic activities, facilities affected by flood, in order to extend flood risk mapping from simple hazard concept into risk based idea. By applying it to Nakdong River basin, the flood vulnerability indices were estimated to draw flood risk maps subdivided into administrative districts. The result of this study can be applied to establish the disaster prevention measures and priority decision of disaster prevention project.

Nonstationary Frequency Analysis of Hydrologic Extreme Variables Considering of Seasonality and Trend (계절성과 경향성을 고려한 극치수문자료의 비정상성 빈도해석)

  • Lee, Jeong-Ju;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Moon, Young-Il
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.581-585
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    • 2010
  • This study introduced a Bayesian based frequency analysis in which the statistical trend seasonal analysis for hydrologic extreme series is incorporated. The proposed model employed Gumbel and GEV extreme distribution to characterize extreme events and a fully coupled bayesian frequency model was finally utilized to estimate design rainfalls in Seoul. Posterior distributions of the model parameters in both trend and seasonal analysis were updated through Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation mainly utilizing Gibbs sampler. This study proposed a way to make use of nonstationary frequency model for dynamic risk analysis, and showed an increase of hydrologic risk with time varying probability density functions. In addition, full annual cycle of the design rainfall through seasonal model could be applied to annual control such as dam operation, flood control, irrigation water management, and so on. The proposed study showed advantage in assessing statistical significance of parameters associated with trend analysis through statistical inference utilizing derived posterior distributions.

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Application of Geophysical Methods for Dam Safety Analysis: Recent technological trend (댐 안정성 검토를 위한 물리탐사 기법의 최근 기술 동향)

  • Kim, Ki-Seog;Kim, Jung-Ho;Park, Sam-Gyu;Lim, Huei-Dae;Cho, In-Ky
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2007.09a
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    • pp.208-220
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    • 2007
  • Sixteen percent of a total of 18,000 dam facilities in Korea are reported to suffer problems related to seepage. It has also been observed that the natural frequency of torrential rainfall has increased quite significantly in recent years. Seepage in man-made structures combined with natural phenomenon may make the risk of dam failure higher, and can even lead to disasters for the people residing in downstream area. Thus, the social demands for the technology to prevent these disasters are higher than ever. In this contribution, we provide a brief review of technologies that are used to evaluate the structural safety of dams. We also discuss the results of three case studies where geophysical exploration methods (e.g. resistivity survey) were employed to find possible seepage zones of dam structures.

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Applying Steady State Analysis to the Study of Mitten Crabs in Jichun, Kum River (동적 균형상태를 중심으로 본 금강 지천의 참게자원 분석)

  • Jeon, Dae-Uk;Jeong, Hoi-Seong
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.27-57
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    • 2010
  • This article deals with an ecological-economic analysis of the 'Pasture Project of Kum River', which is the farming plan of mitten crabs using Jichun, a stream of the River Kum where the natural propagation of mitten crabs are blocked because of the estuary dam constructed in 1990. Toward analyzing the ecological and economic effects of the crab releasing and harvesting activities in Jichun, a two-stage cohort model of population dynamics with cannibalistic behaviors and density restrictions in biomathematics is adopted, despite of the current infertility in Kum, considering the opportunity of establishing dam fishways in the near future. This study moreover presents a method of parameter estimation especially with assuming a steady state of the ecosystem, and performs various analyses such as the risk measurement of climate change and the economic value of such fishways.

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Prediction of Loss of Life in Downstream due to Dam Break Flood (댐 붕괴 홍수로 인한 하류부 인명피해 예측)

  • Lee, Jae Young;Lee, Jong Seok;Kim, Ki Young
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.10
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    • pp.879-889
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    • 2014
  • In this study, to estimate loss of life considered flood characteristics using the relationship derived from analysis of historical dam break cases and the factors determining loss of life, the loss of life module applying in LIFESim and loss of life estimation by means of a mortality function were suggested and applicability for domestic dam watershed was examined. The flood characteristics, such as water depth, flow velocity and arrival time were simulated by FLDWAV model and flood risk area were predicted by using inundation depth. Based on this, the effects of warning, evacuation and shelter were considered to estimate the number of people exposed to the flood. In order to estimate fatality rates based on the exposed population, flood hazard zone is assigned to three different zones. Then, total fatality numbers were predicted after determining lethality or mortality function for each zone. In the future, the prediction of loss of life due to dam break floods will quantitatively evaluate flood risk and employ to establish flood mitigation measures at downstream applying probabilistic flood scenarios.