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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2014.47.10.879

Prediction of Loss of Life in Downstream due to Dam Break Flood  

Lee, Jae Young (Research Institute, Shinhan P&D)
Lee, Jong Seok (Graduate School of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
Kim, Ki Young (Infrastructure Research Center, K-water Institute)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.47, no.10, 2014 , pp. 879-889 More about this Journal
Abstract
In this study, to estimate loss of life considered flood characteristics using the relationship derived from analysis of historical dam break cases and the factors determining loss of life, the loss of life module applying in LIFESim and loss of life estimation by means of a mortality function were suggested and applicability for domestic dam watershed was examined. The flood characteristics, such as water depth, flow velocity and arrival time were simulated by FLDWAV model and flood risk area were predicted by using inundation depth. Based on this, the effects of warning, evacuation and shelter were considered to estimate the number of people exposed to the flood. In order to estimate fatality rates based on the exposed population, flood hazard zone is assigned to three different zones. Then, total fatality numbers were predicted after determining lethality or mortality function for each zone. In the future, the prediction of loss of life due to dam break floods will quantitatively evaluate flood risk and employ to establish flood mitigation measures at downstream applying probabilistic flood scenarios.
Keywords
dam break; loss of life; mortality function; flood risk;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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