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Monitoring and Risk Assessment of Pesticide Residues in Herbal Medicines in Incheon (인천광역시 유통 한약재의 잔류농약 실태 조사 및 위해평가)

  • Min-jeong Kang;Sung-Hee Kwon;Sun-Hoi Kim;Mi-Sook Yeom;Byung-Kyu Park;Hee-jeong Lee;Ji-Hyeung Kim;Kwang-sig Joo;Myung-je Heo;Mun-ju Kwon
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.118-127
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    • 2024
  • This study investigated the levels of 345 pesticide residues in 50 herbal medicines sold in Incheon metropolitan city to determine their safety. Pesticide residues are harmful substances that can cause serious health problems owing to their toxicity and carcinogenicity. The analysis of pesticide residues in the samples was conducted using the quick, easy, cheap, effective, rugged, and safe (QuEChERS) method, known for its high analysis efficiency, to analyze a wide range of pesticides for which no standards have been set. The analysis was cross-validated with the pretreatment method outlined in the Korea Pharmacopoeia. Among the 50 samples encompassing 24 different herbs, 22 pesticide residues were detected in 24 samples, covering 7 distinct herbs, resulting in a detection rate of 48%. It is noteworthy that, except for two cases, all detected pesticides were those for which no standards were set. However, after conducting a risk evaluation considering the daily dosage of herb, it was determined that the levels of pesticide residues were within safe limits. Pesticides with high frequency within the same category of herbs were detected, indicating the necessity for continuous monitoring and regulation. In addition, comparative analysis using the pretreatment method outlined in the Korean Pharmacopoeia, yielded similar results, suggesting the possibility of analyzing pesticide residues in herbs using the QuEChERS method. The study emphasizes the importance of continuous monitoring of pesticide residues in herbs and the development of high-efficiency reliability analysis methods should continue to ensure consumer safety.

Quantification of the Elastic Property of Normal Thigh Muscles Using MR Elastography: Our Initial Experience (자기 공명 탄성 검사를 이용한 대퇴 근육의 탄성도의 정량화: 초기 경험)

  • Junghoon Kim;Jeong Ah Ryu;Juhan Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.82 no.6
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    • pp.1556-1564
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    • 2021
  • Purpose This study aimed to apply MR elastography (MRE) to achieve in vivo evaluation of the elastic properties of thigh muscles and validate the feasibility of quantifying the elasticity of normal thigh muscles using MRE. Materials and Methods This prospective study included 10 volunteer subjects [mean age, 32.5 years, (range, 23-45 years)] who reported normal activities of daily living and underwent both T2-weighted axial images and MRE of thigh muscles on the same day. A sequence with a motion-encoding gradient was used in the MRE to map the propagating shear waves in the muscle. Elastic properties were quantified as the shear modulus of the following four thigh muscles at rest; the vastus medialis, vastus lateralis, adductor magnus, and biceps femoris. Results The mean shear modulus was 0.98 ± 0.32 kPa and 1.00 ± 0.33 kPa for the vastus medialis, 1.10 ± 0.46 kPa and 1.07 ± 0.43 kPa for the vastus lateralis, 0.91 ± 0.41 kPa and 0.93 ± 0.47 kPa for the adductor magnus, and 0.99 ± 0.37 kPa and 0.94 ± 0.32 kPa for the biceps femoris, with reader 1 and 2, respectively. No significant difference was observed in the shear modulus based on sex (p < 0.05). Aging consistently showed a statistically significant negative correlation (p < 0.05) with the shear modulus of the thigh muscles, except for the vastus medialis (p = 0.194 for reader 1 and p = 0.355 for reader 2). Conclusion MRE is a quantitative technique used to measure the elastic properties of individual muscles with excellent inter-observer agreement. Age was consistently significantly negatively correlated with the shear stiffness of muscles, except for the vastus medialis.

A Study of Equipment Accuracy and Test Precision in Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry (골밀도검사의 올바른 질 관리에 따른 임상적용과 해석 -이중 에너지 방사선 흡수법을 중심으로-)

  • Dong, Kyung-Rae;Kim, Ho-Sung;Jung, Woon-Kwan
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.17-23
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : Because there is a difference depending on the environment as for an inspection equipment the important part of bone density scan and the precision/accuracy of a tester, the management of quality must be made systematically. The equipment failure caused by overload effect due to the aged equipment and the increase of a patient was made frequently. Thus, the replacement of equipment and additional purchases of new bonedensity equipment caused a compatibility problem in tracking patients. This study wants to know whether the clinical changes of patient's bonedensity can be accurately and precisely reflected when used it compatiblly like the existing equipment after equipment replacement and expansion. Materials and methods : Two equipments of GE Lunar Prodigy Advance(P1 and P2) and the Phantom HOLOGIC Spine Road(HSP) were used to measure equipment precision. Each device scans 20 times so that precision data was acquired from the phantom(Group 1). The precision of a tester was measured by shooting twice the same patient, every 15 members from each of the target equipment in 120 women(average age 48.78, 20-60 years old)(Group 2). In addition, the measurement of the precision of a tester and the cross-calibration data were made by scanning 20 times in each of the equipment using HSP, based on the data obtained from the management of quality using phantom(ASP) every morning (Group 3). The same patient was shot only once in one equipment alternately to make the measurement of the precision of a tester and the cross-calibration data in 120 women(average age 48.78, 20-60 years old)(Group 4). Results : It is steady equipment according to daily Q.C Data with $0.996\;g/cm^2$, change value(%CV) 0.08. The mean${\pm}$SD and a %CV price are ALP in Group 1(P1 : $1.064{\pm}0.002\;g/cm^2$, $%CV=0.190\;g/cm^2$, P2 : $1.061{\pm}0.003\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.192). The mean${\pm}$SD and a %CV price are P1 : $1.187{\pm}0.002\;g/cm^2$, $%CV=0.164\;g/cm^2$, P2 : $1.198{\pm}0.002\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.163 in Group 2. The average error${\pm}$2SD and %CV are P1 - (spine: $0.001{\pm}0.03\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.94, Femur: $0.001{\pm}0.019\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.96), P2 - (spine: $0.002{\pm}0.018\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.55, Femur: $0.001{\pm}0.013\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.48) in Group 3. The average error${\pm}2SD$, %CV, and r value was spine : $0.006{\pm}0.024\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.86, r=0.995, Femur: $0{\pm}0.014\;g/cm^2$, %CV=0.54, r=0.998 in Group 4. Conclusion: Both LUNAR ASP CV% and HOLOGIC Spine Phantom are included in the normal range of error of ${\pm}2%$ defined in ISCD. BMD measurement keeps a relatively constant value, so showing excellent repeatability. The Phantom has homogeneous characteristics, but it has limitations to reflect the clinical part including variations in patient's body weight or body fat. As a result, it is believed that quality control using Phantom will be useful to check mis-calibration of the equipment used. A value measured a patient two times with one equipment, and that of double-crossed two equipment are all included within 2SD Value in the Bland - Altman Graph compared results of Group 3 with Group 4. The r value of 0.99 or higher in Linear regression analysis(Regression Analysis) indicated high precision and correlation. Therefore, it revealed that two compatible equipment did not affect in tracking the patients. Regular testing equipment and capabilities of a tester, then appropriate calibration will have to be achieved in order to calculate confidential BMD.

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Estimation of GARCH Models and Performance Analysis of Volatility Trading System using Support Vector Regression (Support Vector Regression을 이용한 GARCH 모형의 추정과 투자전략의 성과분석)

  • Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.107-122
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    • 2017
  • Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

The Effects of Gastrodiae Rhizoma Powder on Plasma Lipid Profiles in the Elderly with Cardiovascular Disease (천마분말 복용이 심혈관계 질환 노인들의 혈중 지질 양상 변화에 미치는 영향)

  • Yang, Kyung-Mi
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.37 no.7
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    • pp.858-868
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    • 2008
  • This study was carried out to investigate the effects of Gastrodiae Rhizoma powder on plasma lipid profiles in elderly volunteers with hyperlipidemia, hypertension, diabetes or heart disease. 32 elderly people, 11 males and 21 females aged $60{\sim}77$ years, were given Gastrodiae Rhizoma powder 15 g twice daily for 6 months. We investigated the antheropometric data, general characteristics and dietary habit by using questionnaires. Fasting blood samples were collected from the subjects before and after this 6 months intervention study. Blood pressure, glucose, hemoglobin and lipid levels of plasma, atherogenic index (AI) and cardiac risk factors (CRF, LHR, HTR) were determined before and after consumption of Gastrodiae Rhizoma powder. The mean body mass index (BMI) of the male and female subjects were 22.4 and 23.6, respectively. The percent of ideal body weight (PIBW) of males and females were 105.6% and 122.3%, respectively. The subjects had decreased intake frequency of fish and meat in their dietary habit. After consumption of Gastrodiae Rhizoma powder, there were no significant differences in blood pressure; however, the blood glucose significantly decreased with Gastrodiae Rhizoma intake in the males. In the subjects, the levels of plasma total cholesterol, triglyceride, and LDL-cholesterol were decreased by the consumption of Gastrodiae Rhizoma powder; while the levels of plasma LDL-cholesterol was significantly decreased in female. Blood pressure and biochemical assessment (blood glucose, hemoglobin, triglyceride, total cholesterol, LDL and HDL-cholesterol) of the subjects were within the normal range. It was found that AI, CRF and LHR were significantly decreased by Gastrodiae Rhizoma intake. The present results indicate that dietary supplementation of Gastrodiae Rhizoma improved lipid metabolism and cardiac risk factor in cardiovascular disease.

Herbicidal Phytotoxicity under Adverse Environments and Countermeasures (불량환경하(不良環境下)에서의 제초제(除草劑) 약해(藥害)와 경감기술(輕減技術))

  • Kwon, Y.W.;Hwang, H.S.;Kang, B.H.
    • Korean Journal of Weed Science
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.210-233
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    • 1993
  • The herbicide has become indispensable as much as nitrogen fertilizer in Korean agriculture from 1970 onwards. It is estimated that in 1991 more than 40 herbicides were registered for rice crop and treated to an area 1.41 times the rice acreage ; more than 30 herbicides were registered for field crops and treated to 89% of the crop area ; the treatment acreage of 3 non-selective foliar-applied herbicides reached 2,555 thousand hectares. During the last 25 years herbicides have benefited the Korean farmers substantially in labor, cost and time of farming. Any herbicide which causes crop injury in ordinary uses is not allowed to register in most country. Herbicides, however, can cause crop injury more or less when they are misused, abused or used under adverse environments. The herbicide use more than 100% of crop acreage means an increased probability of which herbicides are used wrong or under adverse situation. This is true as evidenced by that about 25% of farmers have experienced the herbicide caused crop injury more than once during last 10 years on authors' nationwide surveys in 1992 and 1993 ; one-half of the injury incidences were with crop yield loss greater than 10%. Crop injury caused by herbicide had not occurred to a serious extent in the 1960s when the herbicides fewer than 5 were used by farmers to the field less than 12% of total acreage. Farmers ascribed about 53% of the herbicidal injury incidences at their fields to their misuses such as overdose, careless or improper application, off-time application or wrong choice of the herbicide, etc. While 47% of the incidences were mainly due to adverse natural conditions. Such misuses can be reduced to a minimum through enhanced education/extension services for right uses and, although undesirable, increased farmers' experiences of phytotoxicity. The most difficult primary problem arises from lack of countermeasures for farmers to cope with various adverse environmental conditions. At present almost all the herbicides have"Do not use!" instructions on label to avoid crop injury under adverse environments. These "Do not use!" situations Include sandy, highly percolating, or infertile soils, cool water gushing paddy, poorly draining paddy, terraced paddy, too wet or dry soils, days of abnormally cool or high air temperature, etc. Meanwhile, the cultivated lands are under poor conditions : the average organic matter content ranges 2.5 to 2.8% in paddy soil and 2.0 to 2.6% in upland soil ; the canon exchange capacity ranges 8 to 12 m.e. ; approximately 43% of paddy and 56% of upland are of sandy to sandy gravel soil ; only 42% of paddy and 16% of upland fields are on flat land. The present situation would mean that about 40 to 50% of soil applied herbicides are used on the field where the label instructs "Do not use!". Yet no positive effort has been made for 25 years long by government or companies to develop countermeasures. It is a really sophisticated social problem. In the 1960s and 1970s a subside program to incoporate hillside red clayish soil into sandy paddy as well as campaign for increased application of compost to the field had been operating. Yet majority of the sandy soils remains sandy and the program and campaign had been stopped. With regard to this sandy soil problem the authors have developed a method of "split application of a herbicide onto sandy soil field". A model case study has been carried out with success and is introduced with key procedure in this paper. Climate is variable in its nature. Among the climatic components sudden fall or rise in temperature is hardly avoidable for a crop plant. Our spring air temperature fluctuates so much ; for example, the daily mean air temperature of Inchon city varied from 6.31 to $16.81^{\circ}C$ on April 20, early seeding time of crops, within${\times}$2Sd range of 30 year records. Seeding early in season means an increased liability to phytotoxicity, and this will be more evident in direct water-seeding of rice. About 20% of farmers depend on the cold underground-water pumped for rice irrigation. If the well is deep over 70m, the fresh water may be about $10^{\circ}C$ cold. The water should be warmed to about $20^{\circ}C$ before irrigation. This is not so practiced well by farmers. In addition to the forementioned adverse conditions there exist many other aspects to be amended. Among them the worst for liquid spray type herbicides is almost total lacking in proper knowledge of nozzle types and concern with even spray by the administrative, rural extension officers, company and farmers. Even not available in the market are the nozzles and sprayers appropriate for herbicides spray. Most people perceive all the pesticide sprayers same and concern much with the speed and easiness of spray, not with correct spray. There exist many points to be improved to minimize herbicidal phytotoxicity in Korea and many ways to achieve the goal. First of all it is suggested that 1) the present evaluation of a new herbicide at standard and double doses in registration trials is to be an evaluation for standard, double and triple doses to exploit the response slope in making decision for approval and recommendation of different dose for different situation on label, 2) the government is to recognize the facts and nature of the present problem to correct the present misperceptions and to develop an appropriate national program for improvement of soil conditions, spray equipment, extention manpower and services, 3) the researchers are to enhance researches on the countermeasures and 4) the herbicide makers/dealers are to correct their misperceptions and policy for sales, to develop database on the detailed use conditions of consumer one by one and to serve the consumers with direct counsel based on the database.

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Feed Intake and Digestibility in Korean Native Goats Fed Fermented Domestic Agricultural By-Products (국내산 농산부산물 발효사료를 급여한 재래산양의 사료섭취량 및 소화율)

  • 안종호;유황종;김현진;조익환;이주삼
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.111-120
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    • 2000
  • In this study, by-products of rice bran, rice hull, bean curd dregs and food waste were fermented with different ratios of 26, 26, 34 and 14% respectively and the experimental diets were prepared mixing it with various ratios of commercial diets (fermented feed commercial feed : A 80 : 20, B 70 : 30, C 60 : 40, D 50:50). In Experiment I, feed intake, nutrients digestibilities and nitrogen retention were investigated and body weight gain in Experiment 1. For chemical composition of experimental diets, crude protein contents were 13.73, 13.78, 14.45 and 15.14% in A, B, C and D respectively and the contents of crude fat and crude fiber were highest in A as 8.66 and 27.82% respectively. 2. Dry hurler intakes were significantly higher (P<0.05) in A(362.06g/d) and C(358.49g/d) than B and D. Intakes of crude protein and crude fat were not significantly different (P>0.05) among treatments however those of crude fiber and crude ash were significantly higher (P>0.05) in A(101.47g/d). 3. Dry matter digestibilities in the range of 53.38∼68.81% in all treatments have shown the highest value in C of 60% fermented feed plus 40% commercial diet but the lowest in A of 80% of fermented feed plus 20% commercial diet (P<0.05). 59.85% of digestibility of crude protein in A was also lowest among all treatments (p<0.05), 4. 8.47g/d of nitrogen intake in C was recorded highest (P<0.05) however the highest nitrogen retention was marked in B of 50% fermented feed plus 50% of commercial diet due mainly to lower excretion of nitrogen through feces. 5. The data of live weight gain in Experiment II has not been shown as a result since the proper daily gain of body weight was achieved only in D as 88.89g/d and the goats in other treatments have shown frequent diarrhea. However, neglecting the animals with diarrhea, higher amounts of concentrates in the diets (C and D) showed the tendency of higher weight gain. 6. In this study, feeding 60% fermented feed manufactured with domestic agricultural by-products of rice bran, rice hull, bean curd dregs and food waste to Korean native goats have shown satisfactory results of intake and digestibility and it indicates that utilization of domestic agricultural by-products in goats could be improved by the process of fermentation. However it's effects on body weight gain and nitrogen retention were below than expected. Different sources of feedstuff for fermentation may result in different performances of animals. However, to draw overall conclusion from this study, 50∼60% of fermented feed can be recommended in the case of mixing with concentrates.

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The Effect of Glucocorticoid on the Change of Nitric Oxide and Cytokine Levels in Induced Sputum from Patients with Bronchial Asthma (기관지 천식 환자에서 부신피질 스테로이드 투여 전후 유도객담내 Nitric Oxide 및 Cytokine의 변화)

  • Kim, Tae-Yon;Yoon, Hyeong-Kyu;Choi, Young-Mee;Lee, Sook-Young;Kwon, Soon-Seog;Kim, Young-Kyoon;Kim, Kwan-Hyoung;Moon, Hwa-Sik;Park, Sung-Hak;Song, Jeong-Sup
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.48 no.6
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    • pp.922-931
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    • 2000
  • Background : It has been well known that bronchia1 asthma is a chronic airway inflammatory disorder. Recently, sputum induced with hypertonic saline was introduced as a simple and useful nonivasive medium to investigate airway inflammation and symptom severity in patients with asthma. We examined the eosinophil, eosinophil cationic protein (ECP), interleukin(IL)-3, IL-5, granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating facta (GM-CSF), and nitric oxide (NO) derivatives in induced sputum from patients with bronchia1 asthma in order to determine the role of NO and various inflammatory cytokines as a useful markers of airway inflammation or changes in pulmonary function tests and symptoms. Methods : A total 30 patients with bronchia1 asthma received oral prednisolone 30 mg daily for 2 weeks. Forced expiratory volume in one second ($FEV_1$), total blood eosinophil count and induced sputum eosinophil count, ECP, IL-3, IL-5, GM-CSF, and NO derivatives were determined before and after the administration of prednisolone. Results : Of the 30 patients, 13 (43.3%) were male and 17 (56.7%) were female. The mean age of patients was 41.8 years (range 19-64 years). Two patients could not produce sputum at the second study and 3 could not be followed up after their first visit. Two weeks after the prednisolone administration, there was a significant increase in $FEV_1$ (% of predicted value) from 78.1$\pm$20.6 % to 90.3$\pm$ 18.3 % (P<0.001). The eosinophil percentages in induced sputum were significantly decreased after treatment with prednisolone, with values of 56.1$\pm$27.2 % versus 29.6$\pm$21.3 % (P<0.001), and ECP were $134.5\pm68.1\;{\mu}g/L$ versus $41.5\pm42.4\;{\mu}g/L$ (P<0.001) respectively. After the prednisolone treatments, the eotaxin concentration also showed a decreasing tendency from 26.7$\pm$12.8 pg/ml to 21.7$\pm$8.7 pg/ml. There was a decreasing tendency but no significant differences in total blood eosinophil count (425.7$\pm$265.9 vs 287.7$\pm$294.7) and in the concentration of NO derivatives ($70.4\pm44.6{\mu}mol/L$ vs $91.5\pm48.3\;{\mu}mol/L$) after the prednisolone treatments. IL-3, IL-5, GM-CSF were undetectable in the sputum of most subjects either before the prednisolone treatments or after the treatments. Before the prednisolone treatments, a significant inverse correlation was observed between FEV1 and sputum ECP (r=-D.364, P<0.05) and there was a significant correlation between sputum eosinophils and eotaxin (r=0.369, P<0.05) Conclusion : The eotaxin and ECP concentration in induced sputum may be used as markers of airway inflammation after treatments in bronchia1 asthma. In addition, the measurement of sputum eosinophil percent ages is believed to be a simple method displaying the degree of airway inflammation and airway obstruction before and after the prednisolone treatment in bronchia1 asthma. However, unlike exhaled NO, the examination of NO derivatives with Griess reaction in induced sputum is considered an ineffective marker of changing airway inflammation and obstructing symptoms.

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Stock-Index Invest Model Using News Big Data Opinion Mining (뉴스와 주가 : 빅데이터 감성분석을 통한 지능형 투자의사결정모형)

  • Kim, Yoo-Sin;Kim, Nam-Gyu;Jeong, Seung-Ryul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.143-156
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    • 2012
  • People easily believe that news and stock index are closely related. They think that securing news before anyone else can help them forecast the stock prices and enjoy great profit, or perhaps capture the investment opportunity. However, it is no easy feat to determine to what extent the two are related, come up with the investment decision based on news, or find out such investment information is valid. If the significance of news and its impact on the stock market are analyzed, it will be possible to extract the information that can assist the investment decisions. The reality however is that the world is inundated with a massive wave of news in real time. And news is not patterned text. This study suggests the stock-index invest model based on "News Big Data" opinion mining that systematically collects, categorizes and analyzes the news and creates investment information. To verify the validity of the model, the relationship between the result of news opinion mining and stock-index was empirically analyzed by using statistics. Steps in the mining that converts news into information for investment decision making, are as follows. First, it is indexing information of news after getting a supply of news from news provider that collects news on real-time basis. Not only contents of news but also various information such as media, time, and news type and so on are collected and classified, and then are reworked as variable from which investment decision making can be inferred. Next step is to derive word that can judge polarity by separating text of news contents into morpheme, and to tag positive/negative polarity of each word by comparing this with sentimental dictionary. Third, positive/negative polarity of news is judged by using indexed classification information and scoring rule, and then final investment decision making information is derived according to daily scoring criteria. For this study, KOSPI index and its fluctuation range has been collected for 63 days that stock market was open during 3 months from July 2011 to September in Korea Exchange, and news data was collected by parsing 766 articles of economic news media M company on web page among article carried on stock information>news>main news of portal site Naver.com. In change of the price index of stocks during 3 months, it rose on 33 days and fell on 30 days, and news contents included 197 news articles before opening of stock market, 385 news articles during the session, 184 news articles after closing of market. Results of mining of collected news contents and of comparison with stock price showed that positive/negative opinion of news contents had significant relation with stock price, and change of the price index of stocks could be better explained in case of applying news opinion by deriving in positive/negative ratio instead of judging between simplified positive and negative opinion. And in order to check whether news had an effect on fluctuation of stock price, or at least went ahead of fluctuation of stock price, in the results that change of stock price was compared only with news happening before opening of stock market, it was verified to be statistically significant as well. In addition, because news contained various type and information such as social, economic, and overseas news, and corporate earnings, the present condition of type of industry, market outlook, the present condition of market and so on, it was expected that influence on stock market or significance of the relation would be different according to the type of news, and therefore each type of news was compared with fluctuation of stock price, and the results showed that market condition, outlook, and overseas news was the most useful to explain fluctuation of news. On the contrary, news about individual company was not statistically significant, but opinion mining value showed tendency opposite to stock price, and the reason can be thought to be the appearance of promotional and planned news for preventing stock price from falling. Finally, multiple regression analysis and logistic regression analysis was carried out in order to derive function of investment decision making on the basis of relation between positive/negative opinion of news and stock price, and the results showed that regression equation using variable of market conditions, outlook, and overseas news before opening of stock market was statistically significant, and classification accuracy of logistic regression accuracy results was shown to be 70.0% in rise of stock price, 78.8% in fall of stock price, and 74.6% on average. This study first analyzed relation between news and stock price through analyzing and quantifying sensitivity of atypical news contents by using opinion mining among big data analysis techniques, and furthermore, proposed and verified smart investment decision making model that could systematically carry out opinion mining and derive and support investment information. This shows that news can be used as variable to predict the price index of stocks for investment, and it is expected the model can be used as real investment support system if it is implemented as system and verified in the future.

Postoperative Radiation Therapy in the Soft-tissue Sarcoma (연부 조직 육종의 수술 후 방사선 치료 결과)

  • Kim Yeon Shil;Jang Hong Seok;Yoon Sei Chul;Ryu Mi Ryeong;Kay Chul Seung;Chung Su Mi;Kim Hoon Kyo;Kang Yong Koo
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.485-495
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    • 1998
  • Purpose : The major goal of the therapy in the soft tissue sarcoma is to control both local and distant tumor. However, the technique of obtaining local control has changed significantly over the past few decades from more aggressive surgery to combined therapy including conservative surgery and radiation and/or chemotherapy. We retrospectively analyzed the treatment results of the postoperative radiation therapy of soft tissue sarcoma and its prognostic factor. Materials and Methods : Between March 1983 and June 1994, 50 patients with soft tissue sarcoma were treated with surgery and postoperative radiation therapy at Kang-Nam St. Mary's hospital. Complete follow up was possible for all patients with median follow up duration 50 months (range 6-162 months). There were 28 male and 32 female patients. Their age ranged from 6 to 83 with a median of 44 years. Extremity (58$\%$) was the most frequent site of occurrence followed by trunk (20$\%$) and head and neck (12$\%$). Histologically malignant fibrous histiocytoma (23$\%$), liposarcoma (17$\%$), malignant schwannoma (12$\%$) constitute 52$\%$ of the patients. Daily radiation therapy designed to treat all areas at a risk for tumor spread upto dose of 4500-5000 cGy. A shrinking field technique was then used and total 55-65 Gy was delivered to tumor bed. Twenty-five patients (42$\%$) received chemotherapy with various regimen in the postoperative period. Results : Total 41 patients failed either with local recurrence or with distant metastasis. There were 29 patients (48$\%$) of local recurrence. Four patients (7$\%$) developed simultaneous local recurrence and distant metastasis and 8 patients (13$\%$) developed only distant metastasis. Local recurrence rate was rather higher than of other reported series. This study included patients of gross residual, recurrent cases after previous operation, trunk and head and neck Primary This feature is likely explanation for the decreased local control rate. Five of 29 Patients who failed only locally were salvaged by re-excision and/or re-irradiation and remained free of disease. Factors affecting local control include histologic type, grade, stage, extent of operation and surgical margin involvement, lymph node metastasis (p<0.05). All 21 patients who failed distantly are dead with progressive disease at the time of this report. Our overall survival results are similar to those of larger series. Actuarial 5 year overall survival and disease free survival were 60.4 $\%$, 30.6$\%$ respectively. Grade, stage (being close association with grade), residual disease (negative margin, microscopic, gross) were significant as a predictor of survival in our series (p<0.05). Conclusion : Combined surgery and postoperative radiation therapy obtained 5 year survival rate comparable to that of radical surgery.

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