• 제목/요약/키워드: cure rate model

검색결과 43건 처리시간 0.025초

A new extended Birnbaum-Saunders model with cure fraction: classical and Bayesian approach

  • Ortega, Edwin M.M.;Cordeiro, Gauss M.;Suzuki, Adriano K.;Ramires, Thiago G.
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제24권4호
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    • pp.397-419
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    • 2017
  • A four-parameter extended fatigue lifetime model called the odd Birnbaum-Saunders geometric distribution is proposed. This model extends the odd Birnbaum-Saunders and Birnbaum-Saunders distributions. We derive some properties of the new distribution that include expressions for the ordinary moments and generating and quantile functions. The method of maximum likelihood and a Bayesian approach are adopted to estimate the model parameters; in addition, various simulations are performed for different parameter settings and sample sizes. We propose two new models with a cure rate called the odd Birnbaum-Saunders mixture and odd Birnbaum-Saunders geometric models by assuming that the number of competing causes for the event of interest has a geometric distribution. The applicability of the new models are illustrated by means of ethylene data and melanoma data with cure fraction.

A Kinetic Study of Biphenyl Type Epoxy-Xylok Resin System with Different Kinds of Catalysts

  • 한승;김환근;윤호규;문탁진
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • 제18권11호
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    • pp.1199-1203
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    • 1997
  • The investigation of cure kinetics of biphenyl epoxy (4,4-diglycidyloxy-3,3,5,5-tetramethyl biphenyl)-xylok resin system with four different catalysts was performed by differential scanning calorimeter using an isothermal approach. All kinetic parameters of the curing reaction including the reaction order, activation energy and rate constant were calculated and reported. The results indicate that the curing reaction of the formulations using triphenylphosphine (TPP) and 1-benzyl-2-methylimidazole (1B2MI) as a catalyst proceeds through a first order kinetic mechanism, whereas that of the formulations using diazabicyloundecene (DBU) and tetraphenyl phosphonium tetraphenyl borate (TPP-TPB) proceeds by an autocatalytic kinetic mechanism. To describe the cure reaction in the latter stage, we have used the semiempirical relationship proposed by Chern and Poehlein. By combining an nth order kinetic model or an autocatalytic model with a diffusion factor, it is possible to predict the cure kinetics of each catalytic system over the whole range of conversion.

A Bayesian cure rate model with dispersion induced by discrete frailty

  • Cancho, Vicente G.;Zavaleta, Katherine E.C.;Macera, Marcia A.C.;Suzuki, Adriano K.;Louzada, Francisco
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제25권5호
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    • pp.471-488
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, we propose extending proportional hazards frailty models to allow a discrete distribution for the frailty variable. Having zero frailty can be interpreted as being immune or cured. Thus, we develop a new survival model induced by discrete frailty with zero-inflated power series distribution, which can account for overdispersion. This proposal also allows for a realistic description of non-risk individuals, since individuals cured due to intrinsic factors (immunes) are modeled by a deterministic fraction of zero-risk while those cured due to an intervention are modeled by a random fraction. We put the proposed model in a Bayesian framework and use a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the computation of posterior distribution. A simulation study is conducted to assess the proposed model and the computation algorithm. We also discuss model selection based on pseudo-Bayes factors as well as developing case influence diagnostics for the joint posterior distribution through ${\psi}-divergence$ measures. The motivating cutaneous melanoma data is analyzed for illustration purposes.

이중사출 성형을 위한 저온 경화 액상실리콘고무 (LSR)의 경화 거동 분석 (Analysis of cure behavior of low temperature curing liquid silicone rubber (LSR) for multi-material injection molding)

  • 유형민
    • Design & Manufacturing
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    • 제17권1호
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    • pp.1-5
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    • 2023
  • In multi-material injection molding, since two or more materials with different process conditions are used, it is essential to maximize process efficiency by operating the cooling or heating system to a minimum. In this study, Liquid silicone rubber (LSR) that can be cured at a low temperature suitable for the multi-material injection molding was selected and the cure behavior according to the process conditions was analyzed through differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). Dynamic measurement results of DSC with different heating rate were obtained, and through this, the total heat of reaction when the LSR was completely cured was calculated. Isothermal measurement results of DSC were derived for 60 minutes at each temperature from 80 ℃ to 110 ℃ at 10 ℃ intervals, and the final degree of cure at each temperature was calculated based on the total heat of reaction identified from the Dynamic DSC measurement results. As the result, it was found that when the temperature is lowered, the curing start time and the time required for the curing reaction increase, but at a temperature of 90 ℃ or higher, LSR can secure a degree of cure of 80% or more. However, at 80 ℃., it was found that not only had a relatively low degree of curing of about 60%, but also significantly increased the curing start time. In addition, in the case of 110 ℃, the parameters were derived from experimental result using the Kamal kinetic model.

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Determination of a Change Point in the Age at Diagnosis of Breast Cancer Using a Survival Model

  • Abdollahi, Mahbubeh;Hajizadeh, Ebrahim;Baghestani, Ahmad Reza;Haghighat, Shahpar
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제17권sup3호
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    • pp.5-10
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    • 2016
  • Breast cancer, the second cause of cancer-related death after lung cancer and the most common cancer in women after skin cancer, is curable if detected in early stages of clinical presentation. Knowledge as to any age cut-off points which might have significance for prognostic groups is important in screening and treatment planning. Therefore, determining a change-point could improve resource allocation. This study aimed to determine if a change point for survival might exist in the age of breast cancer diagnosis. This study included 568 cases of breast cancer that were registered in Breast Cancer Research Center, Tehran, Iran, during the period 1986-2006 and were followed up to 2012. In the presence of curable cases of breast cancer, a change point in the age of breast cancer diagnosis was estimated using a mixture survival cure model. The data were analyzed using SPSS (versions 20) and R (version 2.15.0) software. The results revealed that a change point in the age of breast cancer diagnosis was at 50 years age. Based on our estimation, 35% of the patients diagnosed with breast cancer at age less than or equal to 50 years of age were cured while the figure was 57% for those diagnosed after 50 years of age. Those in the older age group had better survival compared to their younger counterparts during 12 years of follow up. Our results suggest that it is better to estimate change points in age for cancers which are curable in early stages using survival cure models, and that the cure rate would increase with timely screening for breast cancer.

In Vivo Antitumor Efficacy of Cw252053, A Folate-based Thymidylate Synthase Inhibitor

  • Oh, Se-Woong;Ha, Jong-Ryul;Baek, Du-Jong
    • Archives of Pharmacal Research
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    • 제24권4호
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    • pp.323-326
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    • 2001
  • Previous studies have demonstrated that CW252053, a quinazoline antifolate, exhibits potent inhibitory activity against thymidylate synthase (TS) as well as cytotoxic activity against tumor cell lines in vitro. In this studys, we evaluated the in vivo antitumor efficacy of CW252053 in the mouse tumor model. Female B6D2F$_1$ mice were injected with LY3.7. 2C TK-/- (thymidine kinase deficient mouse Iymphoma) cells into the gastrocnemius muscle. Then, CW252053 was administered twice daily by intraperitoneal injection for 10 days, and tumor growth was monitored daily by leg diameter measurement. All animals in the vehicle, 5-FU, and low dose (30mgmg/kg CW252053 treated groups died between days 12 and 23 because of the tumor burden. In contrast, dosing with 60 mg/kg of CW252053 produced a cure rat against tumor growth of 37.5% and a survival rate of 50%. Even more significantly, a higher dose of CW252053 (120 mg/kg) elicited both a 100% cure rate and a 100% survival rate at the termination of the study, confirming that this compound has very potent in vivo antitumor activity against tumor growth. During the experimental period of this study no signs of toxicity were observed even at the high CW252053 dosage rate of 120 mg/kg.

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Curing Kinetics of the No-Flow Underfill Encapsulant

  • Jung, Hye-Wook;Han, Sang-Gyun;Kim, Min-Young;Kim, Won-Ho
    • 한국마이크로전자및패키징학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국마이크로전자및패키징학회 2001년도 추계 기술심포지움
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    • pp.134-137
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    • 2001
  • The cure kinetics of a cycloalipatic epoxy / anhydride / Co(II) system for a no-flow underfill encapsulant, has been studied by using a differential scanning calorimetry(DSC) under isothermal and dynamic conditions over the temperature range of $160^{\circ}C ~220^{\circ}C$. The kinetic analysis was carried out by fitting dynamic/isothermal heating experimental data to the kinetic expressions to determine the reaction parameters, such as order of reaction and reaction constants. Diffusion-controlled reaction has been observed as the cure conversion increases and successfully analyzed by incorporating the diffusion control term into the rate equation. The prediction of reaction rates by the model equation corresponded well to experimental data at all temperature.

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COVID-19 바이러스 잠복 시간 분포 추정과 치사율 추정을 위한 생존 분석의 적용 (Statistical analysis of estimating incubation period distribution and case fatality rate of COVID-19)

  • 기한정;김지은;김소희;박주원;이주행;김양진
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제33권6호
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    • pp.777-789
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    • 2020
  • COVID-19는 지난 2019년 12월부터 중국에서 발생하여 전세계적으로 확산된 대유행병이 되었다. 본 연구에서는 한국 질병 관리 본부에서 공개한 오픈 자료를 이용하였으며 시각화 기법을 통해 확진자의 남녀별 지역별 추세를 조사하였다. 또한 평균 바이러스 잠복기간을 추정하기 위해 감염원이 알려진 두 감염 그룹의 증상 발현 시점과 양성 확진 시점을 활용하였다. 하지만 양성 확진자 중 86%가 무증상으로 정확한 증상 발현시점을 알 수 없었다. 또한 주어진 자료에서는 감염시점도 알려져 있지 않아 감염시점과 증상 발현 시점차로 정의되는 잠복기간은 정확하게 측정하기가 어렵다. 이에 생존 분석의 한 기법인 구간 중도 절단을 적용하여 잠복기간의 분포를 추정하였다. 여러가지 모수 분포를 적용한 결과 최적의 분포하에서 평균 잠복 기간은 5.4일 (95% 신뢰구간 (4.70,6.01)일)이었다. 본 분석에서는 확진자 표본을 이용하여 치사율과 치유율을 구하기 위해 경쟁 위험 모형을 적용하였다. 분석 결과 50대이상의 치사 위험률은 50대미만 그룹의 30배이상이며 남성 양성 확진자가 사망할 확률이 더 높았다. 또한 여성이고 나이가 젊고 무증상일 때 치유될 가능성이 더 높았다.

Regression models generated by gamma random variables with long-term survivors

  • Ortega, Edwin M.M.;Cordeiro, Gauss M.;Hashimoto, Elizabeth M.;Suzuki, Adriano K.
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제24권1호
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    • pp.43-65
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    • 2017
  • We propose a flexible cure rate survival model by assuming that the number of competing causes of the event of interest has the Poisson distribution and the time for the event follows the gamma-G family of distributions. The extended family of gamma-G failure-time models with long-term survivors is flexible enough to include many commonly used failure-time distributions as special cases. We consider a frequentist analysis for parameter estimation and derive appropriate matrices to assess local influence on the parameters. Further, various simulations are performed for different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages. We illustrate the performance of the proposed regression model by means of a data set from the medical area (gastric cancer).

비알코올성 지방간 질환에 대한 침치료의 효과 : 체계적 고찰 (Clinical Effectiveness of Acupuncture in the Treatment of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Systematic Review)

  • 현준;이주복;김소연;한창우
    • 대한한방내과학회지
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    • 제39권6호
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    • pp.1206-1224
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: This systematic review was planned and performed in order to determine the clinical effectiveness of acupuncture for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Methods: We searched related randomized controlled trials in several medical online databases, including China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Excerpta Medica dataBASE (EMBASE), Public/Publisher MEDLINE (PubMed), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), National Digital Science Library (NDSL), and Research Information Sharing Service (RISS). NAFLD related outcomes were extracted from the included trials and meta-analyzed. Results: From the 8 included trials, the values of the following examinations were extracted: liver ultrasonography, liver CT, body fat CT, aspartate transaminase (AST), alanine transaminase (ALT), gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT), total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG), low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, fasting blood sugar (FBS), hosmeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), weight, body mass index (BMI), waist hip ratio (WHR), obesity degree, body fat mass, body fat rate, leptin, malondialdehyde (MDA), and super oxide dismutase (SOD). In the 4 outcomes, cure rate in liver ultrasonography (RR=1.56; 95%CI=1.05~2.31; P=0.03), cure rate in liver CT (RR=2.23; 95%CI=1.33~3.72; P=0.002), TC (MD=-0.78; 95%CI=-1.41~-0.15; P=0.02), and TG (MD=-2.05; 95%CI=-3.88~-0.21; P=0.03), acupuncture was more effective than the control intervention. Conclusions: In this meta-analysis, acupuncture relieved hepatic steatosis, and reduced TC, and TG in NAFLD patients. more well-planned studies are still needed due to the heterogeneity and the considerable methodological flaws in the analyzed trials.