• Title/Summary/Keyword: crime prediction

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A Study on the Prediction Method of Voice Phishing Damage Using Big Data and FDS (빅데이터와 FDS를 활용한 보이스피싱 피해 예측 방법 연구)

  • Lee, Seoungyong;Lee, Julak
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.62
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    • pp.185-203
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    • 2020
  • While overall crime has been on the decline since 2009, voice phishing has rather been on the rise. The government and academia have presented various measures and conducted research to eradicate it, but it is not enough to catch up with evolving voice phishing. In the study, researchers focused on catching criminals and preventing damage from voice phishing, which is difficult to recover from. In particular, a voice phishing prediction method using the Fraud Detection System (FDS), which is being used to detect financial fraud, was studied based on the fact that the victim engaged in financial transaction activities (such as account transfers). As a result, it was conceptually derived to combine big data such as call details, messenger details, abnormal accounts, voice phishing type and 112 report related to voice phishing in machine learning-based Fraud Detection System(FDS). In this study, the research focused mainly on government measures and literature research on the use of big data. However, limitations in data collection and security concerns in FDS have not provided a specific model. However, it is meaningful that the concept of voice phishing responses that converge FDS with the types of data needed for machine learning was presented for the first time in the absence of prior research. Based on this research, it is hoped that 'Voice Phishing Damage Prediction System' will be developed to prevent damage from voice phishing.

The Trends and Prospects of Mobile Forensics Using Linear Regression

  • Choi, Sang-Yong
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.27 no.10
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    • pp.115-121
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, we analyze trends in the use of mobile forensic technology, focusing on cases where mobile forensics are used, and we predict the development of future mobile forensics technology using linear regression used in future prediction models. For the current status and outlook analysis, we extracted a total of 8 variables by analyzing 1,397 domestic and foreign mobile forensics-related cases and newspaper articles. We analyzed the prospects for each variable using the year of occurrence as an independent variable, seven variables such as text (text message usage information), communication information (cell phone communication information), Internet usage information, messenger usage information, stored files, GPS, and others as dependent variables. As a result of the analysis, among various aspects of the use of mobile devices, the use of Internet usage information, messenger usage information, and data stored in mobile devices is expected to increase. Therefore, it is expected that continuous research on technologies that can effectively extract and analyze characteristic information of mobile devices such as file systems, the Internet, and messengers will be needed As mobile devices increase performance and utilization in the future and security technology.

Usefulness of Data Mining in Criminal Investigation (데이터 마이닝의 범죄수사 적용 가능성)

  • Kim, Joon-Woo;Sohn, Joong-Kweon;Lee, Sang-Han
    • Journal of forensic and investigative science
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.5-19
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    • 2006
  • Data mining is an information extraction activity to discover hidden facts contained in databases. Using a combination of machine learning, statistical analysis, modeling techniques and database technology, data mining finds patterns and subtle relationships in data and infers rules that allow the prediction of future results. Typical applications include market segmentation, customer profiling, fraud detection, evaluation of retail promotions, and credit risk analysis. Law enforcement agencies deal with mass data to investigate the crime and its amount is increasing due to the development of processing the data by using computer. Now new challenge to discover knowledge in that data is confronted to us. It can be applied in criminal investigation to find offenders by analysis of complex and relational data structures and free texts using their criminal records or statement texts. This study was aimed to evaluate possibile application of data mining and its limitation in practical criminal investigation. Clustering of the criminal cases will be possible in habitual crimes such as fraud and burglary when using data mining to identify the crime pattern. Neural network modelling, one of tools in data mining, can be applied to differentiating suspect's photograph or handwriting with that of convict or criminal profiling. A case study of in practical insurance fraud showed that data mining was useful in organized crimes such as gang, terrorism and money laundering. But the products of data mining in criminal investigation should be cautious for evaluating because data mining just offer a clue instead of conclusion. The legal regulation is needed to control the abuse of law enforcement agencies and to protect personal privacy or human rights.

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Citizen Sentiment Analysis of the Social Disaster by Using Opinion Mining (오피니언 마이닝 기법을 이용한 사회적 재난의 시민 감성도 분석)

  • Seo, Min Song;Yoo, Hwan Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2017
  • Recently, disaster caused by social factors is frequently occurring in Korea. Prediction about what crisis could happen is difficult, raising the citizen's concern. In this study, we developed a program to acquire tweet data by applying Python language based Tweepy plug-in, regarding social disasters such as 'Nonspecific motive crimes' and 'Oxy' products. These data were used to evaluate psychological trauma and anxiety of citizens through the text clustering analysis and the opinion mining analysis of the R Studio program after natural language processing. In the analysis of the 'Oxy' case, the accident of Sewol ferry, the continual sale of Oxy products of the Oxy had the highest similarity and 'Nonspecific motive crimes', the coping measures of the government against unexpected incidents such as the 'incident' of the screen door, the accident of Sewol ferry and 'Nonspecific motive crime' due to misogyny in Busan, had the highest similarity. In addition, the average index of the Citizens sentiment score in Nonspecific motive crimes was more negative than that in the Oxy case by 11.61%p. Therefore, it is expected that the findings will be utilized to predict the mental health of citizens to prevent future accidents.

Recidivism prediction of sex offender risk assessment tools: STATIC-99 and HAGSOR-Dynamic (교정시설내 성범죄자 재범위험성 평가도구의 재범 예측: STATIC-99와 HAGSOR-동적요인을 중심으로)

  • Yoon, Jeongsook
    • Korean Journal of Forensic Psychology
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.99-119
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    • 2022
  • Research on sex offense has shown that sex offenders are very heterogeneous. Sex offenders are heterogeneous in their probability of risk of recidivism. Some sex offenders are known to be much higher in their tendencies to reactivate than others. The study examined the predictive and explanatory power of static and dynamic risk factors in STATIC-99 and HAGSOR-Dynamic which have been used in Korean correctional facilities since 2014. STATIC-99 and HAGSOR-Dynamic showed moderate predictive accuracy for all crimes(AUC = .737, AUC = .597, respectively, ps < .001). However, when examining sex crime alone, only STATIC-99 predicted recidivism significantly(AUC = .743, p < .001). The incremental predictive power of HAGSOR-Dynamic was confirmed; the explanatory power of Model 2 comprising both static and dynamic risk factors were significant beyond Model 1 comprising only static factors(∆χ2= 12.721, p < .001), but this tendency was only applied to the model of all crimes. These findings were discussed with implications of practicing the sex offender assessment and treatment.

Searching the Major Research Domains for Establishing the Korean Criminal Psychology (한국 범죄심리학의 학문적 정립을 위한 주요 연구영역의 탐색)

  • Si Up Kim
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.109-142
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    • 2005
  • This study was conducted to suggest the research domains of Criminal Psychology, which is needed to improve the disciplinary identity of the Korean Criminal Psychology. Some major textbooks of Criminal Psychology, Forensic Psychology, Legal Psychology are written by korean and foreign psychologists. Major definitions and research domains of Criminal Psychology was compared and reviewed. For aggregating the criminal psychological researches were studied by korean psychologists, a total of 211 articles and papers, which was published by Korean Psychological Association, 5 Sub-psychological Associations, and Korean Law Psychological Association, were reviewed. Several the major research domains in Criminal Psychology was suggested as follows: General psychological theories, aggression·anger·morality, adolescent delinquency, mind and motivations of criminals, victims, investigation techniques, testimony, assessment·counseling·correction·rehabilitation of criminals, prediction and prevention of crime.

A Study on People Counting in Public Metro Service using Hybrid CNN-LSTM Algorithm (Hybrid CNN-LSTM 알고리즘을 활용한 도시철도 내 피플 카운팅 연구)

  • Choi, Ji-Hye;Kim, Min-Seung;Lee, Chan-Ho;Choi, Jung-Hwan;Lee, Jeong-Hee;Sung, Tae-Eung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.131-145
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    • 2020
  • In line with the trend of industrial innovation, IoT technology utilized in a variety of fields is emerging as a key element in creation of new business models and the provision of user-friendly services through the combination of big data. The accumulated data from devices with the Internet-of-Things (IoT) is being used in many ways to build a convenience-based smart system as it can provide customized intelligent systems through user environment and pattern analysis. Recently, it has been applied to innovation in the public domain and has been using it for smart city and smart transportation, such as solving traffic and crime problems using CCTV. In particular, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the easiness of securing real-time service data and the stability of security when planning underground services or establishing movement amount control information system to enhance citizens' or commuters' convenience in circumstances with the congestion of public transportation such as subways, urban railways, etc. However, previous studies that utilize image data have limitations in reducing the performance of object detection under private issue and abnormal conditions. The IoT device-based sensor data used in this study is free from private issue because it does not require identification for individuals, and can be effectively utilized to build intelligent public services for unspecified people. Especially, sensor data stored by the IoT device need not be identified to an individual, and can be effectively utilized for constructing intelligent public services for many and unspecified people as data free form private issue. We utilize the IoT-based infrared sensor devices for an intelligent pedestrian tracking system in metro service which many people use on a daily basis and temperature data measured by sensors are therein transmitted in real time. The experimental environment for collecting data detected in real time from sensors was established for the equally-spaced midpoints of 4×4 upper parts in the ceiling of subway entrances where the actual movement amount of passengers is high, and it measured the temperature change for objects entering and leaving the detection spots. The measured data have gone through a preprocessing in which the reference values for 16 different areas are set and the difference values between the temperatures in 16 distinct areas and their reference values per unit of time are calculated. This corresponds to the methodology that maximizes movement within the detection area. In addition, the size of the data was increased by 10 times in order to more sensitively reflect the difference in temperature by area. For example, if the temperature data collected from the sensor at a given time were 28.5℃, the data analysis was conducted by changing the value to 285. As above, the data collected from sensors have the characteristics of time series data and image data with 4×4 resolution. Reflecting the characteristics of the measured, preprocessed data, we finally propose a hybrid algorithm that combines CNN in superior performance for image classification and LSTM, especially suitable for analyzing time series data, as referred to CNN-LSTM (Convolutional Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory). In the study, the CNN-LSTM algorithm is used to predict the number of passing persons in one of 4×4 detection areas. We verified the validation of the proposed model by taking performance comparison with other artificial intelligence algorithms such as Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and RNN-LSTM (Recurrent Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory). As a result of the experiment, proposed CNN-LSTM hybrid model compared to MLP, LSTM and RNN-LSTM has the best predictive performance. By utilizing the proposed devices and models, it is expected various metro services will be provided with no illegal issue about the personal information such as real-time monitoring of public transport facilities and emergency situation response services on the basis of congestion. However, the data have been collected by selecting one side of the entrances as the subject of analysis, and the data collected for a short period of time have been applied to the prediction. There exists the limitation that the verification of application in other environments needs to be carried out. In the future, it is expected that more reliability will be provided for the proposed model if experimental data is sufficiently collected in various environments or if learning data is further configured by measuring data in other sensors.