• Title/Summary/Keyword: count model

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Regional Traffic Accident Model of Elderly Drivers based on Urban Decline Index (도시쇠퇴 지표를 적용한 지역별 고령운전자 교통사고 영향 분석)

  • Park, Na Young;Park, Byung Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.137-142
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    • 2017
  • This study deals with the relation between traffic accident and urban decline. The purpose of this study is to develop the regional accident models of elderly drivers. In order to develop the count data models, 2009-2015 traffic accident data from TAAS(traffic accident analysis system) and urban decline data from urban regeneration information system are collected. The main results are as follows. First, the null hypothesis that there is no difference in the accident number between elderly and non-elderly drivers is rejected. Second, 8 accident models which are all statistically significant have been developed. Finally, common variables between elderly and non-elderly are ratio of elderly people, elderly person living alone/1,000 persons and wholesale/retail employments/1,000 persons. This study could be expected to give many implications to making regional accident reduction policy.

The Empire of Japan’s Foreign Policy

  • Feigenblatt, Otto F. von
    • Journal of Contemporary Eastern Asia
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 2016
  • The present research applies the Theory of Harmony through Holistic Engagement to the foreign policy of Japan. As the third largest economy in the world and one of the most highly developed countries in the world, Japan is a major international power. Most analysts interpret Japan’s foreign policy through the lenses of realist, exceptionalist, or liberal institutionalist approaches. All the previously mentioned approaches tend to be based on etic studies conducted from the point of view of outsiders. The present interpretation of Japanese foreign policy applies an emic model based on primary sources from the Greater East Asian region and concludes that the Model of Harmony through Holistic Engagement shows considerable explanatory traction in interpreting the direction and development of Japanese foreign policy, in particular in the last two to three decades.

Application of artificial neural networks in settlement prediction of shallow foundations on sandy soils

  • Luat, Nguyen-Vu;Lee, Kihak;Thai, Duc-Kien
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.385-397
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    • 2020
  • This paper presents an application of artificial neural networks (ANNs) in settlement prediction of a foundation on sandy soil. In order to train the ANN model, a wide experimental database about settlement of foundations acquired from available literatures was collected. The data used in the ANNs model were arranged using the following five-input parameters that covered both geometrical foundation and sandy soil properties: breadth of foundation B, length to width L/B, embedment ratio Df/B, foundation net applied pressure qnet, and average SPT blow count N. The backpropagation algorithm was implemented to develop an explicit predicting formulation. The settlement results are compared with the results of previous studies. The accuracy of the proposed formula proves that the ANNs method has a huge potential for predicting the settlement of foundations on sandy soils.

Negative Binomial Varying Coefficient Partially Linear Models

  • Kim, Young-Ju
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.809-817
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    • 2012
  • We propose a semiparametric inference for a generalized varying coefficient partially linear model(VCPLM) for negative binomial data. The VCPLM is useful to model real data in that varying coefficients are a special type of interaction between explanatory variables and partially linear models fit both parametric and nonparametric terms. The negative binomial distribution often arise in modelling count data which usually are overdispersed. The varying coefficient function estimators and regression parameters in generalized VCPLM are obtained by formulating a penalized likelihood through smoothing splines for negative binomial data when the shape parameter is known. The performance of the proposed method is then evaluated by simulations.

POISSON APPROXIMATION OF INDUCED SUBGRAPH COUNTS IN AN INHOMOGENEOUS RANDOM INTERSECTION GRAPH MODEL

  • Shang, Yilun
    • Bulletin of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.56 no.5
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    • pp.1199-1210
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, we consider a class of inhomogeneous random intersection graphs by assigning random weight to each vertex and two vertices are adjacent if they choose some common elements. In the inhomogeneous random intersection graph model, vertices with larger weights are more likely to acquire many elements. We show the Poisson convergence of the number of induced copies of a fixed subgraph as the number of vertices n and the number of elements m, scaling as $m={\lfloor}{\beta}n^{\alpha}{\rfloor}$ (${\alpha},{\beta}>0$), tend to infinity.

The big data method for flash flood warning (돌발홍수 예보를 위한 빅데이터 분석방법)

  • Park, Dain;Yoon, Sanghoo
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.11
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    • pp.245-250
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    • 2017
  • Flash floods is defined as the flooding of intense rainfall over a relatively small area that flows through river and valley rapidly in short time with no advance warning. So that it can cause damage property and casuality. This study is to establish the flash-flood warning system using 38 accident data, reported from the National Disaster Information Center and Land Surface Model(TOPLATS) between 2009 and 2012. Three variables were used in the Land Surface Model: precipitation, soil moisture, and surface runoff. The three variables of 6 hours preceding flash flood were reduced to 3 factors through factor analysis. Decision tree, random forest, Naive Bayes, Support Vector Machine, and logistic regression model are considered as big data methods. The prediction performance was evaluated by comparison of Accuracy, Kappa, TP Rate, FP Rate and F-Measure. The best method was suggested based on reproducibility evaluation at the each points of flash flood occurrence and predicted count versus actual count using 4 years data.

A Simple Temperature Dependent Model to Predict the Bloom of Aurelia Aurita Polyps (보름달물해파리 폴립의 대량출현 예측을 위한 온도 종속 모델)

  • Jin, Hong Sung;Oh, Choon Young;Choi, Il Soo;Hwang, Doo Jin;Yoon, Yang Ho;Han, Dong Yeob
    • KSBB Journal
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.336-342
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    • 2014
  • Asexual benthic polyp reproduction plays a major role in the jellyfish bloom. Recent studies found that temperature is the most important factor to regulate the budding rate of the polyps. We established a simple dynamic model to count the number of polyps depending on the variation of temperature with two data sets from different places. The population of polyps was counted through the budding rate and the number of budding times by Fibonacci sequence. It is assumed that the budding rate depends on the temperature only. The budding rate of the asexual reproduction shows very sensitive to the distribution of the seawater temperature. The model was tested to the temperature data of Ansan located in the west sea of Korea. The results indicate that this model can be useful to predict the blooms of Aurelia aurita polyps, which may have considerable influence on the bloom of medusa. The shape of temperature curve plays a key role in the predicting the bloom of Aurelia aurita polyps.

Policy Management for BGP Routing Convergence Using Inter-AS Relationship

  • Jeong, Sang-Jin;Youn, Chan-Hyun;Park, Tae-Sang;Jeong, Tae-Soo;Lee, Daniel;Min, Kyoung-Seon
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.342-350
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    • 2001
  • The Internet routing instability, or the rapid fluctuation of network reachability information, is an important problem currently facing the Internet engineering community. High levels of network instability can lead to packet loss, increased network latency, and delayed routing convergence. At the extreme, high levels of routing instability can lead to the loss of internal connectivity in wide-area networks. In this paper, we investigate the variation of domain degree and domain count of the inter-domain network over time by using linear regression model in order to analyze the topology variation of inter-domain network. We Also propose an efficient policy management model to reduce the instability in the inter-domain routing system. The proposed model can be used to identify whether a routing policy is adequate to reduce convergence time that is required to return to a normal state when BGP routing instability happens. Experimental analysis shows that the proposed model can be used to set up routing policy in domains for the purpose of minimizing the effects and the propagation of BGP routing instability.

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A Study on the Visual Precautions of Soju Advertising Posters Using Eye Tracking (아이트래킹을 활용한 소주광고 포스터의 시각적 주의에 관한 연구)

  • Hwang, Mi Kyung;Kwon, Mahn Woo;Park, Min Hee;Kim, Chee Yong
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.368-375
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    • 2020
  • In this study, the area of interest(AOI) of Soju ad poster was tracked for analysis the time to frist fixation, the average of fixation duration and count by the study indexes. As a result of the analysis, Visual attention was higher the face than the body shape of the ad model. This means "when we look at printed ads, we see picture elements first, not language one" but language elements can't be overlooked either. Also, the importance of the model role could be verified by measuring the visual attention on the Soju ad poster. Based on the results of this study, if further research on ad posters is carried out and scientific and quantitative interpretation methods are presented, it can be used as product marketing data that can be reflected in ad model selection and poster design.

Direct Intramuscular Gene Transfer of Naked DNA Expressing Human Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (pCK-VEGF) Enhances Collateral Growth in a Rabbit Ischemic Hind Limb Model (토끼 허혈성 하지 모델에서 VEGF 발현 Naked DNA 벡터인 pCK-VEGF의 근육내 투여가 측부혈관형성에 미치는 영향)

  • 채제건;전현순;박은진;김종묵;김덕경;김선영
    • YAKHAK HOEJI
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.108-115
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    • 2001
  • We have recently reported the development of a high efficiency expression vector, pCK, which can drive a high level of gene expression in mouse skeletal muscle. In this study, we tested the therapeutic potential of pCK expressing human VEGF165, pCK-VEGF in the rabbit ischemic hind limb model. To determine the optimal dose of plasmid DNA, various concentrations of pCK-CAT were injected into the muscle of a rabbit hind limb and the levels of CAT activity were determined. It was found that the expression level of the exogenously added gene became stable between 250 and 1,000 $\mu$g. Based on this result, we tested whether intramuscular transfer of 500$\mu$g of pCK-VEGF could actually modulate collateral vessel development in a rabbit ischemic hind limb model. It was found that relative to the control group injected with the pCK lacking the VEGF sequence, single intramuscular doses (500$\mu$g) of pCK-VEGF produced statistically significant augmentation of collateral vessels as determined by the angiographic vessel count, maximal blood flow by Doppler flowmeter and the number of capillaries by histology. These results suggest that a single 500$\mu$g-delivery of pCK-VEGF is potent enough to induce sufficient angiogenic activity and achieve therapeutic benefit on this rabbit model.

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