• Computers and Concrete
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.419-429
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• 2018

Climate changes, such as increasing of $CO_2$ concentration and global warming, will impact on the carbonation service life of concrete structures. Moreover, slag blended concrete has a lower carbonation resistance than control concrete. This study presents a probabilistic numerical procedure for evaluating the impact of climate change on carbonation service life of slag blended concrete. This numerical procedure considers both corrosion initiation period and corrosion propagation period. First, in corrosion initiation period, by using an integrated hydration-carbonation model, the amount of carbonatable substances, porosity, and carbonation depth are calculated. The probability of corrosion initiation is determined through Monte Carlo method. Second, in corrosion propagation period, a probabilistic model is proposed to calculate the critical corrosion degree at surface cracking, the probability of surface cracking, and service life. Third, based on the service life in corrosion initiation period and corrosion propagation period, the whole service life is calculated. The analysis shows that for concrete structures with 50 years service life, after considering climate changes, the service life reduces about 7%.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.12 no.6
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• pp.129-139
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• 2008

Due to uncertainty of numerous variables in durability model, a probalistic approach is increasing. Monte Carlo simulation (Level III method) is an easily accessible method, but requires a lot of repeated operations. This paper evaluated the effectiveness of First Order Second Moment method (Level II method), which is more convenient and time saving method than MCS, to predict the corrosion initiation in harbor concrete structure. Mean Value First Order Second Moment method (MV FOSM) and Advanced First Order Second Moment method (AFOSM) are applied to the error function solution of Fick's second law modeling chloride diffusion. Reliability index and failure probability based on MV FOSM and AFOSM are compared with the results by MCS. The comparison showed that AFOSM and MCS predict the similar reliability index and MV FOSM underestimates the probability of corrosion initiation by chloride attack. Also, the sensitivity of variables in durability model to corrosion initiation probability was evaluated on the basis of AFOSM. The results showed that AFOSM is a simple and efficient method to estimate the probability of corrosion initiation in harbor structures.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.305-313
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• 2017

A robust finite element based reinforced concrete bridge deck corrosion initiation model is applied for time-dependent probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The model is focused on uncertainties in the governing parameters that include variation of high performance concrete (HPC) diffusion coefficients, concrete cover depth, surface chloride concentration, holidays in reinforcements, coatings and critical chloride threshold level in several steel reinforcements. The corrosion initiation risk is expressed in the form of probability over intended life span of the bridge deck. Conducted study shows the time-dependent sensitivity analysis to evaluate the significance of governing parameters on chloride ingress rate, various steel reinforcement protection and the corrosion initiation likelihood. Results from this probabilistic analysis provide better insight into the effect of input parameters variation on the estimate of the corrosion initiation risk for the design of concrete structures in harsh chloride environments.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.595-603
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• 2010

Monte-Carlo simulation technique is often used in order to predict service life of concrete structure subjected to chloride penetration in marine environment based on probability theory. Monte-Carlo simulation method, however, the method gives different results every time that the simulation is run. On the other hand, moment method, which is frequently used in reliability analysis, needs negligible computational cost compared with simulation technique and gives a constant result for the same problem. Thus, in this study, moment method was applied to the calculation of corrosion-initiation probability. For this purpose, computer programs to calculate failure probabilities are developed using first-order second moment (FOSM) and second-order second moment (SOSM) methods, respectively. From the analysis examples with the developed programs, SOSM was found to give a more accurate result than FOSM does. The sensitivity analysis has shown that the factor affecting the corrosion-initiation probability the most was the cover depth, and the corrosion-initiation probability was influenced more by its coefficient of variation than its mean value.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 2005.05b
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• pp.249-252
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• 2005

Chloride ingress is a common cause of deterioration of reinforced concrete structures. Modeling the chloride ingress is an important basis for designing reinforced concrete structures and for assessing the reliability of an existing structure. The modelling is also needed for predicting the deterioration of a reinforced structure. This paper presents an approach for the probabilistic modeling of the chloride-induced corrosion of reinforcement steel in concrete structures that takes into account the uncertainties in the physical models. The parameters of the models are modeled as random variables and the distribution of the corrosion time and probability of corrosion are determined by using Monte Carlo simulation. The predictions of the proposed model is very effective to do the decision-making about initiation time and deterioration degree.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.142-154
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• 2011

This study predicted the probability of corrosion initiation of reinforced concrete tunnel boxes structures using the Monte Carlo Simulation. For the inner wall and outer wall in the tunnel boxes, exposed to airborne chloride ion and seawater directly respectively, statistical values of parameters like diffusion coefficient D, surface chloride content $C_s$, cover depth c, and the chloride threshold level $C_{lim}$ were examined from experiment or literature review. Their average values accounted for $3.77{\times}10^{-12}m^2/s$, 3.0% by weight of cement, 94.7mm and 45.5mm for outer wall and inner wall, respectively, and 0.69% by weight of cement for D, $C_s$, c, and $C_{lim}$, respectively. With these parametric values, the distribution of chloride contents at rebar with time and the probability of corrosion initiation of the tunnel boxes, inner wall and outer wall, was examined by considering time dependency of chloride transport. From the examination, the histogram of chloride contents at rebar is closer to a gamma distribution, and the mean value increases with time, while the coefficient of variance decreases with time. It was found that the probability of corrosion initiation and the time to corrosion were dependent on the time dependency of chloride transport. Time independent model predicted time to corrosion initiation of inner wall and outer wall as 8 and 12 years, respectively, while 178 and 283 years of time to corrosion was calculated by time dependent model for inner wall and outer wall, respectively. For time independent model, the probability of corrosion at 100 years of exposure for inner wall and outer wall was ranged 59.5 and 95.5%, respectively, while time dependent model indicated 2.9 and 0.2% of the probability corrosion, respectively. Finally, impact of $C_{lim}$, including values specified in current codes, on the probability of corrosion initiation and corrosion free life is discussed.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.84 no.6
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• pp.831-849
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• 2022

One of the most prevalent causes of reinforced concrete (RC) structural deterioration is chloride-induced corrosion. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive insight into the environmental effect of RC's chloride ingress process. The first step is to investigate how relative humidity, temperature, and wind influence chloride ingress into concrete. The probability of initiation time of chloride-induced corrosion is predicted using a probabilistic model that considers these aspects. Parametric analysis is conducted on several factors impacting the corrosion process, including the depth of concrete cover, surface chloride concentration, relative humidity, and temperature to expose environmental features. According to the findings, environmental factors such as surface chloride concentration, relative humidity and temperature substantially impact on the time to corrosion initiation. The long- and short-distance impacts are also examined. The meteorological data from the National Meteorological Center of China are collected and used to analyze the environmental characteristics of the chloride ingress issue for structures along China's coastline. Finally, various recommendations are made for improving durability design against chloride attacks.

• KIEAE Journal
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.103-110
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• 2010

Carbonation is one of the major deterioration factors for concrete. So. lots of researchers have proposed the equations for determining carbonated depth and the initial time of steel corrosion due to carbonation to predict the service life of concrete structures. However, there are large gaps among the equations for predicting carbonation because each researcher has different considering factors to predict carbonation depth. So, in this study, we calculated the deviations of the proposed equations for carbonation, and we calculated each researcher different corrosion initiation time. However, it has a lot of deviation. Therefore, we evaluated the probability of steel corrosion considering each deviation using MCS, an analysis method based on probability theory. In the results, we have proposed much advanced information for determining service life of reinforced concrete structures due to carbonation.

• International Journal of Railway
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• v.4 no.4
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• pp.86-92
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• 2011

Chloride ion diffusion at the corner of rectangular-shaped concrete structures is presented. At the corner of rectangular-shaped concrete, chloride ion diffusion is in two-dimensional process. Chloride ions accumulate from two orthogonal directions, so that corrosion-free life of concrete structures is significantly reduced. A numerical procedure based on finite element method is used to solve the two-dimensional diffusion process. Orthotropic property of diffusion coefficient of concrete is considered and chloride ion profile obtained from numerical analysis is used to produce transformed diffusion coefficient. Comparisons of experimental data are also carried out to show the reliability of proposed numerical analysis. As a result of two-dimensional chloride diffusion, corrosion-free life of concrete structure for railway is estimated using probability of corrosion initiation. In addition, monographs that produces transformed diffusion coefficient and corrosion-free life of concrete structure are made for maintenance purpose.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.44 no.8
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• pp.961-970
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• 2012

Often, probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM) approaches have been adopted to quantify the failure probabilities of Ni-base alloy components, especially due to primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC), in a primary piping system of pressurized water reactors. In this paper, the key features of an advanced PFM code, PINEP-PWSCC (Probabilistic INtegrity Evaluation for nuclear Piping-PWSCC) for such purpose, are described. In developing the code, we adopted most recent research results and advanced models in calculation modules such as PWSCC crack initiation and growth models, a performance-based probability of detection (POD) model for Ni-base alloy welds, and so on. To verify the code, the failure probabilities for various Alloy 182 welds locations were evaluated and compared with field experience and other PFM codes. Finally, the effects of pre-existing crack, weld repair, and POD models on failure probability were evaluated to demonstrate the applicability of PINEP-PWSCC.