• Title/Summary/Keyword: correctness of estimation

Search Result 31, Processing Time 0.022 seconds

Analysis of Missing Data Using an Empirical Bayesian Method (경험적 베이지안 방법을 이용한 결측자료 연구)

  • Yoon, Yong Hwa;Choi, Boseung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.27 no.6
    • /
    • pp.1003-1016
    • /
    • 2014
  • Proper missing data imputation is an important procedure to obtain superior results for data analysis based on survey data. This paper deals with both a model based imputation method and model estimation method. We utilized a Bayesian method to solve a boundary solution problem in which we applied a maximum likelihood estimation method. We also deal with a missing mechanism model selection problem using forecasting results and a comparison between model accuracies. We utilized MWPE(modified within precinct error) (Bautista et al., 2007) to measure prediction correctness. We applied proposed ML and Bayesian methods to the Korean presidential election exit poll data of 2012. Based on the analysis, the results under the missing at random mechanism showed superior prediction results than under the missing not at random mechanism.

Seismic interval velocity analysis on prestack depth domain for detecting the bottom simulating reflector of gas-hydrate (가스 하이드레이트 부존층의 하부 경계면을 규명하기 위한 심도영역 탄성파 구간속도 분석)

  • Ko Seung-Won;Chung Bu-Heung
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 2005.06a
    • /
    • pp.638-642
    • /
    • 2005
  • For gas hydrate exploration, long offset multichannel seismic data acquired using by the 4km streamer length in Ulleung basin of the East Sea. The dataset was processed to define the BSRs (Bottom Simulating Reflectors) and to estimate the amount of gas hydrates. Confirmation of the presence of Bottom Simulating reflectors (BSR) and investigation of its physical properties from seismic section are important for gas hydrate detection. Specially, faster interval velocity overlying slower interval velocity indicates the likely presences of gas hydrate above BSR and free gas underneath BSR. In consequence, estimation of correct interval velocities and analysis of their spatial variations are critical processes for gas hydrate detection using seismic reflection data. Using Dix's equation, Root Mean Square (RMS) velocities can be converted into interval velocities. However, it is not a proper way to investigate interval velocities above and below BSR considering the fact that RMS velocities have poor resolution and correctness and the assumption that interval velocities increase along the depth. Therefore, we incorporated Migration Velocity Analysis (MVA) software produced by Landmark CO. to estimate correct interval velocities in detail. MVA is a process to yield velocities of sediments between layers using Common Mid Point (CMP) gathered seismic data. The CMP gathered data for MVA should be produced after basic processing steps to enhance the signal to noise ratio of the first reflections. Prestack depth migrated section is produced using interval velocities and interval velocities are key parameters governing qualities of prestack depth migration section. Correctness of interval velocities can be examined by the presence of Residual Move Out (RMO) on CMP gathered data. If there is no RMO, peaks of primary reflection events are flat in horizontal direction for all offsets of Common Reflection Point (CRP) gathers and it proves that prestack depth migration is done with correct velocity field. Used method in this study, Tomographic inversion needs two initial input data. One is the dataset obtained from the results of preprocessing by removing multiples and noise and stacked partially. The other is the depth domain velocity model build by smoothing and editing the interval velocity converted from RMS velocity. After the three times iteration of tomography inversion, Optimum interval velocity field can be fixed. The conclusion of this study as follow, the final Interval velocity around the BSR decreased to 1400 m/s from 2500 m/s abruptly. BSR is showed about 200m depth under the seabottom

  • PDF

Performance analysis and operation simulation of the beamforming antenna applied to cellular CDMA basestation (셀룰러 CDMA 기지국에 beamforming 안테나를 적용하기 위한 동작 시뮬레이션 및 성능해석에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jae-Jun;Bae, Byeong-Jae;Jang, Tae-Gyu
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
    • /
    • v.37 no.2
    • /
    • pp.32-45
    • /
    • 2000
  • This paper presents the analytic derivation of the SINR, when a linear array antenna is accommodated into the cellular CDMA basestation receiver, in relation to the two major performance effecting factors in beamforming(BF) applications, i. e., the direction selectivity, which refers to the narrowness of the mainbeam width, and the direction-of-arrival(DOA) estimation accuracy. The analytically derived results are compared with the operation simulation of the receiver realized with the several BF algorithms and their agreements are confirmed, consequently verifying the correctness of the analysis and the operation simulation. In order to investigate separately the effects of the errors occurring in the direction estimation and in the interference suppression, which are the two major functional components of general BF algorithms, both the algorithms of steering BF and the minimum- variance- distortionless-response(MVDR) BF are applied to the analysis. A signal model to reflect the spatially scattering phenomenon of the RF waves entering into the .:nay antenna, which directly affects on the accuracy of the BF algorithm's direction estimation, is also suggested in this paper and applied to the analysis and the operation simulation. It is confirmed from the results that the enhancement of the direction selectivity of the away antenna is not desirable in view of both the implementation economy and the BF algorithm's robustness to the erroneous factors. Such a trade-off characteristics is significant in the sense that it can be capitalized to obtain an economic means of BF implementation that does not severely deteriorate its performance while ensuring the robustness to the erroneous effects, consequently manifesting the significance of the analysis results of this paper that can be used as a design reference in developing BF algorithms to the cellular CDMA system.

  • PDF

Quantitative Approach of Soil Prediction using Environment Factors in Jeju Island (환경요인을 이용한 제주도 토양예측의 정량적 연구)

  • Moon, Kyung-Hwan;Seo, Hyeong-Ho;Sonn, Yeon-Kyu;Song, Kwan-Chul;Hyun, Hae-Nam
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
    • /
    • v.45 no.3
    • /
    • pp.360-369
    • /
    • 2012
  • Parent material, climate, topography, biological factors, and time are considered five soil forming factors. This study was conducted to elucidate the effects of several environment factors on soil distribution using quantitative analysis method, called soil series estimation algorithm in the soils of Jeju Island. We selected environment factors including mean temperature, annual precipitation, surface geology, altitude, slope, aspect, altitude difference within 1 $km^2$ area, topographic wetness index, distance from the shore, distance from the mountain peak, and landuse for a quantitative analysis. We analyzed the ranges of environment factors for each soil series and calculated probabilities of possible-soil series for certain locations using estimation algorithm. The algorithm can predicted exact soil series on the soil map with correctness of 33% on $1^{st}$ ranking, 62% within $2^{nd}$ ranking, 74% within $5^{th}$ ranking after estimating using randomly extracted environment factors. In predicted soil map, soil sequences of Entisols-Alfisols-Andisols on northern area and Alfisols-Ultisols-Andisols on western area can be suggested along increasing altitude. More modeling studies will be needed for the genesis process of soils in Jeju Island.

Formulation Of Some Mathematical Models For The Estimations Of The Most Probable Salts Derived From The Major Mineral Constituents In Natural Water

  • Miah, Raisuddin
    • Analytical Science and Technology
    • /
    • v.8 no.4
    • /
    • pp.759-770
    • /
    • 1995
  • By extensive studies with the quantitative status of the mineral constituents of thousands of water samples, it was found that almost in all natural waters irrespective of the surface or sub-surface sources, minimum 99.5% of the total amount of the cationic constituents are generally the contributions of 3 commonly present parameters viz. Ca, Mg and Na and that of the anionic species are same and contributed by $HCO_3$, Cl and $SO_4$ only. In the field of water works, all these major mineral substances are conventionally measured as their individual ions. But till now, no reliable and generalised methods or rules have been developed for the determination of the exact kinds of the individual salt components and their amounts from these ionic constituents normally present in water. As salt content, only the TDS (Total Dissolved Solids) parameter is frequently measured by evaporation of the water sample. But TDS can tell nothing about the kinds and amounts of the individual salts present in it. Considering the analytical importance of the estimation of the mineral substances as their individual salts, some generalised mathematical models have been developed by this research which are based on the 'hypothetical order of chemical combinations' as may occur among the ionic constituents. With the help of these models, one can easily assume the most probable salts with approximate quantities derived from the ionic constituents. In addition, approximate amount of Na content can also be estimated mathematically with simultaneous verification of the correctness of the water analysis results. The models are stated in this paper with practical illustrations and descriptions of the method of applications.

  • PDF

Modeling and Simulation of Scheduling Medical Materials Using Graph Model for Complex Rescue

  • Lv, Ming;Zheng, Jingchen;Tong, Qingying;Chen, Jinhong;Liu, Haoting;Gao, Yun
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
    • /
    • v.13 no.5
    • /
    • pp.1243-1258
    • /
    • 2017
  • A new medical materials scheduling system and its modeling method for the complex rescue are presented. Different from other similar system, first both the BeiDou Satellite Communication System (BSCS) and the Special Fiber-optic Communication Network (SFCN) are used to collect the rescue requirements and the location information of disaster areas. Then all these messages will be displayed in a special medical software terminal. After that the bipartite graph models are utilized to compute the optimal scheduling of medical materials. Finally, all these results will be transmitted back by the BSCS and the SFCN again to implement a fast guidance of medical rescue. The sole drug scheduling issue, the multiple drugs scheduling issue, and the backup-scheme selection issue are all utilized: the Kuhn-Munkres algorithm is used to realize the optimal matching of sole drug scheduling issue, the spectral clustering-based method is employed to calculate the optimal distribution of multiple drugs scheduling issue, and the similarity metric of neighboring matrix is utilized to realize the estimation of backup-scheme selection issue of medical materials. Many simulation analysis experiments and applications have proved the correctness of proposed technique and system.

Machine Learning Algorithm for Estimating Ink Usage (머신러닝을 통한 잉크 필요량 예측 알고리즘)

  • Se Wook Kwon;Young Joo Hyun;Hyun Chul Tae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
    • /
    • v.46 no.1
    • /
    • pp.23-31
    • /
    • 2023
  • Research and interest in sustainable printing are increasing in the packaging printing industry. Currently, predicting the amount of ink required for each work is based on the experience and intuition of field workers. Suppose the amount of ink produced is more than necessary. In this case, the rest of the ink cannot be reused and is discarded, adversely affecting the company's productivity and environment. Nowadays, machine learning models can be used to figure out this problem. This study compares the ink usage prediction machine learning models. A simple linear regression model, Multiple Regression Analysis, cannot reflect the nonlinear relationship between the variables required for packaging printing, so there is a limit to accurately predicting the amount of ink needed. This study has established various prediction models which are based on CART (Classification and Regression Tree), such as Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machine, and XGBoost. The accuracy of the models is determined by the K-fold cross-validation. Error metrics such as root mean squared error, mean absolute error, and R-squared are employed to evaluate estimation models' correctness. Among these models, XGBoost model has the highest prediction accuracy and can reduce 2134 (g) of wasted ink for each work. Thus, this study motivates machine learning's potential to help advance productivity and protect the environment.

A Moving Path Control of an Automatic Guided Vehicle Using Relative Distance Fingerprinting (상대거리 지문 정보를 이용한 무인이송차량의 주행 경로 제어)

  • Hong, Youn Sik;Kim, Da Jung;Hong, Sang Hyun
    • KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
    • /
    • v.2 no.10
    • /
    • pp.427-436
    • /
    • 2013
  • In this paper, a method of moving path control of an automatic guided vehicle in an indoor environment through recognition of marker images using vision sensors is presented. The existing AGV moving control system using infrared-ray sensors and landmarks have faced at two critical problems. Since there are many windows in a crematorium, they are going to let in too much sunlight in the main hall which is the moving area of AGVs. Sunlight affects the correct recognition of landmarks due to refraction and/or reflection of sunlight. The second one is that a crematorium has a narrow indoor environment compared to typical industrial fields. Particularly when an AVG changes its direction to enter the designated furnace the information provided by guided sensors cannot be utilized to estimate its location because the rotating space is too narrow to get them. To resolve the occurrences of such circumstances that cannot access sensing data in a WSN environment, a relative distance from marker to an AGV will be used as fingerprinting used for location estimation. Compared to the existing fingerprinting method which uses RSS, our proposed method may result in a higher reliable estimation of location. Our experimental results show that the proposed method proves the correctness and applicability. In addition, our proposed approach will be applied to the AGV system in the crematorium so that it can transport a dead body safely from the loading place to its rightful destination.

Development of a new Model and Methodology for the Analysis of the Performance Evaluation of G2B Systems in e-government: EEM (전자정부 G2B 시스템의 성과평가 분석을 위한 새로운 평가 모델 및 방법론 개발)

  • Lim, Gyoo-Gun;Lee, Jae-Kyu;Lee, Dae-Chul
    • Information Systems Review
    • /
    • v.10 no.2
    • /
    • pp.269-289
    • /
    • 2008
  • It is very difficult problem to estimate and evaluate the performance of e-government system which scope and size are large and its effectiveness can not be seen shortly but reveals after several years. It is because the previous offline processes can not be transformed to online ones fully and shortly. For such e-transformation cases, the performance evaluation model should be adjusted and modified gradually as time passes. This paper propose new EEM(E-transformation Evaluation Model) model and methodology to evaluate G2B system that is one of large e-government project. EEM model can derive monetary value of e-transformatized business process areas(online areas). It also estimate the expected effect of offline area that is not yet transformed to online. EEM model consists of standard model, verification model and estimation model with some variables such as evaluation year, evaluation area and data type. By using survey data and database data together it can validate the correctness of the model and derive the effect of the system introduction. This paper also propose EEM evaluation methodology consisting of 5 stages and 10 sub processes to evaluate online and offline effect efficiently. To show the usefulness of this study, we evaluate the performance of Korea G2B system named KONEPS which is famous as a successful e-government case in the world by using the proposed model and methodology. The proposed model and methodology can be applied to different similar areas including e-government projects and large scale information system introduction in private sectors. This study can be also used for establishing appropriate policies about e-government project and informatization issues.

The Effects of functional foot orthotics on the balance according to Foot Shape (기능성 발보조기의 족부형태별 균형유지에 미치는 영향)

  • Chai, S.W.;Park, K.Y.;Kim, Y.S.
    • Journal of rehabilitation welfare engineering & assistive technology
    • /
    • v.5 no.1
    • /
    • pp.47-52
    • /
    • 2011
  • The functional loot orthoses, when wearing shoes, are in the direct contact with bottom of foots to improve and recover the correctness of abnormal lower limb musculoskeletal imbalance and the primary role of foot and also, it can act to keep the balance and weight of body and support the weakened region, so that it is very helpful to keep body balance for the standing position. In this paper, it was researched that foot orthoses which is accommodable for the function of impact absorption including the gait stability affect on the balanced performances of body in according to the formation and the material of foot part. Taking into account the balanced performances by using the sway velocity, the estimation and comparison of the effects on the balanced performances by each formation and material for foot orthoses was evaluated into significant values(p<0.006) in only the eye-opening posture with Firm state, In this posture, the static process performed by each foot formation reveals in order of normal foot(p<0.010), flat foot(p<0.000) and hollow foot(p<0.003) and then, on the base of each formation of foot part, the result that analyze the effects of the materials of foot orthoses on the balance performance appeared showing that soft materials is more effective on the normal foot and, on the other hand, rigid materials is more effective in balancing on flat foot and hollow foot.