• Title/Summary/Keyword: contingent value

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A Heuristic Search Algorithm for Solving Partially-Observable, Non-Deterministic Planning Problems (부분적으로 관측가능하고 비결정적인 계획문제를 풀기 위한 휴리스틱 탐색 알고리즘)

  • Kim, Hyun-Sik;Park, Chan-Young;Kim, In-Cheol
    • Journal of KIISE:Computing Practices and Letters
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    • v.15 no.10
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    • pp.786-790
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, we present a new heuristic search algorithm, HSCP, that can solve conditional/contingent planning problems with nondeterministic actions as well as partial observations. The algorithm repeats its AND-OR search trials until a complete solution graph can be found. However, unlike existing heuristic AND-OR search algorithms such as$AO^*$ and $LAO^*$, the AND-OR search trial conducted by HSCP concentrates on only a single candidate of solution subgraphs to expand it into a complete solution graph. Moreover, unlike real-time dynamic programming algorithms such as RTDP and LRTDP, the AND-OR search trial of HSCP finds a solution immediately when it possible without delaying it until the estimated value of every state converges. Therefore, the HSCP search algorithm has the advantage that it can find a sub-optimal conditional plan very efficiently.

Economic Valuation of the Biodiversity-Related Changes in Ecosystem Services of the Arctic Caused by Climate Change (북극의 기후변화로 인한 생태계변화의 경제적 가치추정)

  • Kang, Heechan;Kim, Hyo-Sun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.321-349
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    • 2016
  • According to the recent observation by NOAA(US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), 2015 is the warmest year based on global average temperature since 1880. The air temperatures in the Arctic have been rising at almost twice the global average and the extent and thickness of sea ice in the Arctic have declined. And the warming process in the Arctic is accelerating rapidly. These impacts of drastic change in sea ice caused by climate change in the Arctic threaten the eco-system service and biodiversity in the Arctic. This study intends to estimate the economic value on changes in eco-system services and biodiversity of the Arctic caused by climate change. The result of the valuation indicates that the total benefit from improvement of ecosystem in the Arctic ranges from 318.6 billion won to 715.9 billion won per annum. Replication scenarios can be explored into two broad categories in future studies: scenarios in consideration of conflicts of different stakeholders and scenarios based on wider or narrower definition of biodiversity in the Arctic.

A Study on the Concentration Strategy of an E-Business Firm to its Core Competence - Approach by the Fuzzy Goal Programming - (e-Business기업의 핵심역량 집중화전의에 관한 연구 - FGP를 이용한 접근법 -)

  • Whang, Bong-Gi;Kim, Jong-Soon
    • Korean Business Review
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    • v.15
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    • pp.99-114
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    • 2002
  • Recently several business models concerning e-Business has been introduced. But the different environment for each business requires the business model which is contingent to its specific situation. We, therefore, need to develop the e-Business models considering environment factors such as capital size, technology level, collection ability and amount of information, profit or target customers, etc. There can be several ways to create the value of an e-Business firm. A way among them is to develop limited area by focusing on core parts of the firm. This way leads for the firm to search the investment priority in order to solve the problem, which is to set a proper production and investment level for concentrating on competitively excellent areas of the firm. In this paper, we propose a method to decide the investment priority effectively when making a decision using fuzzy information. The method by our model is to minimize tolerances of given business fuzzy goals.

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Development of a Competency-Based Master Gardener Coordinator Curriculum: Focusing on Public Service Rural Extension Workers

  • Kim, Ji-Sung;Han, Seung-Won
    • Journal of People, Plants, and Environment
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.149-158
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study was to establish the role of master gardener coordinators and develop an education program to enhance their job competencies. To analyze and develop the new job of master gardener coordinator, we used the CBC method for curriculum development. The research findings can be summarized as follows. The analysis result of need and importance of education based on the performance level and demand level revealed 20 core competencies, which were classified into organizational education, learning by experience, individual learning, low-priority competencies for program development, with focus on the importance and need for education. The 17 courses are comprised of Eastern and Western Garden History, Understanding of Community Garden, Garden Aesthetics and Environmental Design, Master Gardener's Mission & Management, Garden Plants, and Garden Design and Practice etc. and the curriculum is 33 hours in total. The master gardener coordinator education program was conducted on 73 rural extension workers and the curriculum was evaluated by those who completed the program. The overall satisfaction was 4.29 and 97.1% of the trainees decided that the program would help them perform their duties. The analysis result discovered that all 20 core competencies increased after the program. As a result of conducting contingent valuation to determine the value of the program, willingness to pay (WTP) per hour was KRW 33,223 and the total WTP was KRW 1.096 million, which, when multiplied by 73 participants, is approximately KRW 80.008 million. This is relatively higher than the budget used (KRW 22.943 million), indicating that the program is worth it.

An Analysis of Consumer's Willingness to Pay for the Improvement of Agricultural Land's Nutrition Balance (농경지 양분수지 개선에 대한 소비자 지불의사 분석)

  • Jo, Woo-Young;Lee, Seul-Bi;Park, Hye-Jin;Kim, Gil-Won;Kim, Tae-Young
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.167-189
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    • 2023
  • Korea has become the highest nitrogen balance (228 kg/ha) among 34 OECD member countries, and has the stigma of being a 'Nutrient overload country' as of 2019. Accordingly, research on the derivation and utilization of nutrient balance indicators and the 'regional nutrient management system' are being promoted to improve Korea's nutrient balance. It is necessary to support these policies and studies, form a public consensus on improving the nutrient balance, and evaluate the function of the public benefit. This paper aims to estimate the public benefit value of improving the nutrient balance based on an analysis of consumers' willingness to pay and recognition of Korea's nutrient excess for 600 consumers nationwide. As results, 21.2% of the respondents said they were aware of excessive nutrients in Korea, and 76.7% of the respondents said they were aware of the need for nutrient management. The average amount of intention to pay for the improvement of three pollution (soil, water quality, and air) that can occur due to a nutrient overload was ₩2,321.1 for soil pollution improvement, ₩2,391.2 for water pollution improvement, and ₩2,377.9 for air pollution improvement. The average willingness to pay for the three pollution reduction was ₩6,002.3. These results are expected to be used to form a public consensus on the balance of payments and to establish measures to enhance public interest values in the future.

Comparative Study on Monetary Estimates of Natural Environment and Cultural Relics in Gyeongju National Park (경주국립공원의 문화유적과 자연환경의 가치추정 비교연구)

  • Kang, Kee-Rae;Kim, Dong-Pil;Baek, Jae-Bong
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.273-282
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    • 2012
  • This study has estimated Gyeongju National Park's natural environment and cultural relic value in the same way and then been performed to compare the size of the value. Representative method to measure environmental property is contingent valuation methods, CVM. The variables and estimated models adopted for the calculation were same and the respondents were asked by distinguishing between the amount which they would pay to preserve the natural environment and that which they were willing to pay to preserve the cultural relics. As the result, WTP(Willing to pay), the amount that they were willing to pay to preserve the natural environment of Gyeongju National Park was 17,838 won per person and that to preserve the cultural relics appeared to be 316,248 won per person. Based on this, it was estimated that the value of the natural environment with which Gyeongju National Park provided annual visitors was 47 billion won and that the annual value of the cultural relics was 845.7 billion. If the natural environment and the cultural relics value elements are united, it can be estimated that the natural environment and cultural relic value got at the time of people's first visit to Gyeongju National Park is 334,086 won and that the annual value is 893.4 billion won. In this study, the value of the cultural relics has been estimated 18 times higher than that of the natural environment. This reason was that visitors judged that a total of 66 cultural properties including 11 national treasures, 23 treasures, 13 historic places, one historic sites and scenic spot and 18 local cultural properties, etc. which were distributed in Gyeongju National Park were worth far more than the natural environment. Based on the result of this study, the operating management plan of Gyeongju National Park should include a differentiated operation strategy through consultation with relevant experts by taking into account characteristics of the physical components.

A Study about the Presumed Economic Value of Miscanthus Landscape Conservation - Miscanthus Colonies in Youngnam Province - (억새경관보전의 경제적 가치 추정에 대한 연구 - 영남지역 대규모 억새군락을 대상으로 -)

  • Park, Seul-gi;Lee, Sang-Cheol;Kang, Gi-lae;Choi, Song-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2016
  • To detail a picture of the economic value of Miscanthus landscape conservation in terms of cultural services aspects of Ecosystem Services, Sunghaksan(Mt.), Hwawangsan(Mt.) and Jaeyaksan(Mt.), which are known for their Miscanthus colonies, were chosen as survey sites. After examining the willingness to pay for the value of Miscanthus landscape conservation by targeting of visitors each study area, the economic value of Miscanthus landscape conservation per capita aspects was evaluated using Contingent Valuation Methods(CVM) from the collected willingness to pay for economic value of Miscanthus scenery by site. After using the target Chi-square test to analyze the differences among each site, the correlation between specific variables was investigated. Willingness to pay for the Miscanthus landscape conservation was found to increase as the respondents' income became higher. The more environmental conservation efforts were being made in their daily life, the higher willingness to pay was for Miscanthus landscape conservation. Likewise in other studies, the higher the bid was, the less willingness to pay was. The per capita assessment of the Miscanthus landscape value of the logit models in the dual estimated using the factor extracted with each of the injected variable bounds was estimated for Seunghaksan (\38,277), Hwawangsan(\38,648), and Jaeyaksan(\48,891). The average of the three sites was estimated to be \38,679. Assessment of the economic value of these Miscanthus landscape sites saw high willingness to pay by visitors when compared to the current market price inflation, such as watching movies or amusement park admission, which could mean that visitors recognize the value of ecosystem services from nature in evaluating the Miscanthus landscape.

A Study on Estimation of Environmental Value of Tentatively Named 'East-West Trail' Using CVM (CVM기법을 이용한 가칭 '동서트레일'의 환경가치 추정)

  • Kee-Rae Kang;Yoon-Ho Choi;Bo-Kwang Chung;Dong-Pil Kim;Hyun-Kyeong Oh;Woo-Sung Lee;Su-Bok Chae
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.36 no.6
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    • pp.676-683
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    • 2022
  • Due to the effects of rapid changes in the living environment since 2000 and the recent unforeseen pandemic, people are refraining from domestic and international traveling and movement, and outdoor activities for health and the public value of forest trails, called Dullegil Trail in Korea, have become more important. This study estimated the environmental value of the tentatively named "East-West Trail," which connects the forest trails crossing Chungcheong and Gyeongsang Provinces using CVM (Contingent Valuation Method). It surveyed visitors to the East-West Trail, and 725 questionnaires were used for analysis. The average characteristics of respondents were those who exercised 2-3 times per week, visited a forest trail not far from their residence with friends or family, and showed a tendency to spend 50 thousand Korean won or more per visit. Visitors to the Dullegil Trail felt that there was a shortage of information boards on the forest trail, and they preferred a shelter in appropriate locations. We used a double-bounded dichotomous choice (BDDC) logit model proposed by Hanemann to measure the conservation value of the East-West Trail. It was estimated that the environmental value that a visitor to the East-West Trail could obtain was 30,087 won per trip. The estimated environmental value of the East-West Trail can be converted to about 94 billion won total visitors annually based on the population belonging to the direct-use zone near the East-West Trail. As there has been no study on the environmental value of forest trails using CVM, the results of this study will be able to suggest the feasibility of the government policies on forest trails.

Real Option Analysis to Value Government Risk Share Liability in BTO-a Projects (손익공유형 민간투자사업의 투자위험분담 가치 산정)

  • KU, Sukmo;LEE, Sunghoon;LEE, Seungjae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.360-373
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    • 2017
  • The BTO-a projects is the types, which has a demand risk among the type of PPP projects in Korea. When demand risk is realized, private investor encounters financial difficulties due to lower revenue than its expectation and the government may also have a problem in stable infrastructure operation. In this regards, the government has applied various risk sharing policies in response to demand risk. However, the amount of government's risk sharing is the government's contingent liabilities as a result of demand uncertainty, and it fails to be quantified by the conventional NPV method of expressing in the text of the concession agreement. The purpose of this study is to estimate the value of investment risk sharing by the government considering the demand risk in the profit sharing system (BTO-a) introduced in 2015 as one of the demand risk sharing policy. The investment risk sharing will take the form of options in finance. Private investors have the right to claim subsidies from the government when their revenue declines, while the government has the obligation to pay subsidies under certain conditions. In this study, we have established a methodology for estimating the value of investment risk sharing by using the Black - Scholes option pricing model and examined the appropriateness of the results through case studies. As a result of the analysis, the value of investment risk sharing is estimated to be 12 billion won, which is about 4% of the investment cost of the private investment. In other words, it can be seen that the government will invest 12 billion won in financial support by sharing the investment risk. The option value when assuming the traffic volume risk as a random variable from the case studies is derived as an average of 12.2 billion won and a standard deviation of 3.67 billion won. As a result of the cumulative distribution, the option value of the 90% probability interval will be determined within the range of 6.9 to 18.8 billion won. The method proposed in this study is expected to help government and private investors understand the better risk analysis and economic value of better for investment risk sharing under the uncertainty of future demand.

A Study on Application Methods to Economic Impact Analysis on R&D of Geoscience and Mineral Resources in Input-Output-Outcome Perspective (연구성과(outcome) 관점에서 지질지원 분야 연구개발의 경제적 파급효과 분석 방법론 적용)

  • Ahn, Eun-Young;Kim, Seong-Yong
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.39 no.6 s.181
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    • pp.787-801
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    • 2006
  • Focused in the characteristic of R&D on Geoscience and Mineral Resources as basic research area, we survey on methods of public works' economic impact analysis including cost-benefit analysis and resent technology evaluation methods and suggest apply-methods to conduct economic impact analysis on R&D of geoscience and mineral resources. To conduct economic impact analysis on the basic research area, it need to identification research's out-come not just output. In this perspective, we propose a method, Input-Output-Outcome Roadmapping to identify the outcome of R&D and show the relation of input, output, and outcome of R&D. Furthermore, noticing the different effects of R&D from public works, we directly evaluate the use-value of the academic theory or geological maps through Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) and others developed as evaluation methods on environmental goods. In indirect application methods, it can evaluate the partial of the pubic works' benefit with assuming R&D factors if R&D is a part of public works. If not, we evaluate the R&D's value as reductions of costs or additions of benefit with finding related public works.