• 제목/요약/키워드: confidence probability

검색결과 314건 처리시간 0.027초

Age at Smoking Initiation and Subsequent Smoking Among Korean Adolescent Smokers

  • Hwang, Jun Hyun;Park, Soon-Woo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제47권5호
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    • pp.266-272
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    • 2014
  • Objectives: The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between age at cigarette smoking initiation and smoking level among adolescent current smokers. Methods: In 2007, students from one or two classes of the 10th or 11th grade were randomly selected using the probability proportional to size sampling method. In total, 743 current smokers were included. Multiple logistic regression was used to determine the association between age at smoking initiation and smoking level as either frequent, daily, or heavy smokers. Results: The adjusted odds ratios for each smoking level were significantly higher for younger ages of smoking initiation than those for older ages of initiation were (p for trend <0.001). Compared with the students who started smoking in grades 10 to 11, the adjusted odds ratios for frequent, daily, and heavy smokers increased from 2.24 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.30 to 3.87) to 3.90 (95% CI, 2.02 to 7.56), from 1.56 (95% CI, 0.92 to 2.62) to 3.17 (95% CI, 1.70 to 5.92), and from 2.56 (95% CI, 1.21 to 5.42) to 5.67 (95% CI, 2.61 to 12.30) with younger ages of smoking initiation. Conclusions: Smoking frequency and amount were closely associated with age at smoking initiation. Therefore, smoking prevention programs should be initiated from the young adolescent period.

확률적 피로한도모형하에서 계단형 피로시험의 설계 (Design of the Staircase Fatigue Tests for the Random Fatigue Limit Model)

  • 서순근;박정은;조유희;송서일
    • 품질경영학회지
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    • 제35권3호
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    • pp.107-117
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    • 2007
  • The fatigue has been considered the most failure mode of metal, ceramic, and composite materials. In this paper, numerical experiments to asses the usefulness of two Dixon's methods(small and large samples) and 14 S-N methods on assumptions of lognormal fatigue limit distribution under RFL(Random Fatigue Limit) model are conducted for staircase(or up-and-down) test and compared by MSE(Mean Squared Error) and bias for estimates of mean log-fatigue limit. Also, guidelines for staircase test plans to choose initial stress level and step size are recommended from numerical experiments including sensitivity analyses. In addition, the parametric bootstrap method to construct a confidence interval for the mean of log-fatigue limit by the percentile method using a transition probability matrix of Markov chain is presented and illustrated with an example.

운행차 열화특성을 고려한 제작차 배출가스 목표치 설정에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Target Values Fixing of Green Vehicle Emissions in Consideration of In-use Deterioration)

  • 김현우
    • 한국자동차공학회논문집
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    • 제11권2호
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    • pp.104-110
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    • 2003
  • As exhaust emission standards are more stringent, higher conversion efficiency of automotive catalytic converter is required. In addition, catalytic converter is deteriorated during mileage accumulation of vehicle. Therefore the specification of catalytic converter should be decided in consideration of emission standards and deterioration. Because the decision of the specification of catalytic converter is required at the beginning of vehicle development procedure, it is important and necessary to fix the target values of green vehicle exhaust emissions. To do this, a linear regression analysis was done with in-use exhaust emissions data of 5 different kinds of vehicle that received US94 emission standards certification, and data handling methods including some statistical estimation were proposed. As a result, the fixed target values of NMHC, CO, NOx of green vehicle against US94 emission standards were 0.079, 0.83, 0.116, respectively. And expected in-use deterioration factor of NMHC, CO, NOx were 1.75, 2.02, 1.38, respectively. And also it was blown that even if failure rate is 30% after 80,000km driven, it might be sufficiently safe from emission failure confirmatory test of Korea. It is hopeful to make a database of in-use emissions to increase the confidence in correctness of the calculated target values.

A Novel Technique for Human Traffic based Radio Map Updating in Wi-Fi Indoor Positioning Systems

  • Mo, Yun;Zhang, Zhongzhao;Lu, Yang;Agha, Gul
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제9권5호
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    • pp.1881-1903
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    • 2015
  • With the fast-developing of mobile terminals, positioning techniques based on fingerprinting method draws attention from many researchers even world famous companies. To conquer some shortcomings of the existing fingerprinting systems and further improve its performance, we propose a radio map building and updating technique, which is able to customize the spatial and temporal dependency of radio maps. The method includes indoor propagation and penetration modeling and the analysis of human traffic. Based on the combination of Ray-Tracing Algorithm, Finite-Different Time-Domain and Rough Set Theory, the approach of indoor propagation modeling accurately represents the spatial dependency of the radio map. In terms of temporal dependency, we specifically study the factor of moving people in the interest area. With measurement and statistics, the factor of human traffic is introduced as the temporal updating component. We improve our existing indoor positioning system with the proposed building and updating method, and compare the localization accuracy. The results show that the enhanced system can conquer the influence caused by moving people, and maintain the confidence probability stable during week, which enhance the actual availability and robustness of fingerprinting-based indoor positioning system.

Current Status of ACE Format Libraries for MCNP at Nuclear Data Center of KAERI

  • Kim, Do Heon;Gil, Choong-Sup;Lee, Young-Ouk
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • 제41권3호
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    • pp.191-195
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    • 2016
  • Background: The current status of ACE format MCNP/MCNPX libraries by NDC of KAERI is presented with a short description of each library. Materials and Methods: Validation calculations with recent nuclear data evaluations ENDF/BV-II. 0, ENDF/B-VII.1, JEFF-3.2, and JENDL-4.0 have been carried out by the MCNP5 code for 119 criticality benchmark problems taken from the expanded criticality validation suite supplied by LANL. The overall performances of the ACE format KN-libraries have been analyzed in comparison with the results calculated with the ENDF/B-VII.0-based ENDF70 library of LANL. Results and Discussion: It was confirmed that the ENDF/B-VII.1-based KNE71 library showed better performances than the others by comparing the RMS errors and ${chi}^2$ values for five benchmark categories as well as whole benchmark problems. ENDF/B-VII.1 and JEFF-3.2 have a tendency to yield more reliable MCNP calculation results within certain confidence intervals regarding the total uncertainties for the $k_{eff}$ values. Conclusion: It is found that the adoption of the latest evaluated nuclear data might ensure better outcomes in various research and development areas.

화원에 따른 광전식 연기감지기 반응시간 분석 (Analysis of the Response Time of a Photoelectric Spot-Type Smoke Detector Depending on the Type of Fires)

  • 지승욱
    • 조명전기설비학회논문지
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    • 제27권5호
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    • pp.89-94
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    • 2013
  • The fire testing performed for smoke detector model approval in Korea tests only one kind of fire smoke. A photoelectric spot-type smoke detector using Mie scattering is affected by the wavelength of light beam and the particle diameter. According to UL (Underwriters Laboratories Inc.) 268 standard, this paper analyze the characteristic of the response for a photoelectric spot-type smoke detector on sale in Korea using various fire smokes. Probability that the response time is included in non-defective range is 100% in paper fire, 90% in wood fire and 75% in flammable liquid fire, 90% in wood fire and 75% in flammable liquid fire. According to the estimation for population mean of the response time choosing a confidence level of 99%, a maximum of 19% for wood fire and that of 38% for flammable liquid fire are defective. As the result of analysis of smoke particle, this paper is found that these results are caused by the smoke particles are wide variations in size or have very black.

Depression in family caregivers of elderly people with dementia

  • LVAREZ, Yanelys Taset A;TORNES, Alisa Natividad Delgado;LEON, Diurkis Yarenis Madrigal
    • 식품보건융합연구
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    • 제6권3호
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    • pp.31-41
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    • 2020
  • The caregivers of elderly people with dementia suffer an affectation in the psychological and social order due to the low probability of total rehabilitation of the elderly and the progressive course of this pathology. In the municipality of Guisa, Granma Province there is a health problem regarding this problem since family caregivers of the elderly with dementia constantly go to the Psychology and Psychiatry consultations, in search of specialized help because they report feeling depressed. For this reason, this research was carried out with the objective of determining the main manifestations of depression in these caregivers. The results emanating from the triangulation of methods (scientific observation) and techniques (questionnaire, interviews and inventory Beck), employees at three stages of work where it was found that the main manifestations of depression of these caregivers are: poss of interest or the ability to enjoy activities that were previously pleasurable, loss of emotional reactivity to pleasant environmental events and circumstances, sleep disturbances, marked loss of appetite, weight loss, irritability, muscular tension, feelings of sadness unmotivated that produces discomfort and sufferings, ansiety, entities of handicap, blame, loss of self-confidence and feelings of inferiority, gloomy perspective of the future.

다중 지진 시나리오를 고려한 원전 격납구조물의 조건부 평균 스펙트럼 기반 지진취약도 평가 (Seismic Fragility Assessment of NPP Containment Structure based on Conditional Mean Spectra for Multiple Earthquake Scenarios)

  • 박원호;박지훈
    • 한국지진공학회논문집
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    • 제23권6호
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    • pp.301-309
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    • 2019
  • A methodology to assess seismic fragility of a nuclear power plant (NPP) using a conditional mean spectrum is proposed as an alternative to using a uniform hazard response spectrum. Rather than the single-scenario conditional mean spectrum, which is the conventional conditional mean spectrum based on a single scenario, a multi-scenario conditional mean spectrum is proposed for the case in which no single scenario is dominant. The multi-scenario conditional mean spectrum is defined as the weighted average of different conditional mean spectra, each one of which corresponds to an individual scenario. The weighting factors for scenarios are obtained from a deaggregation of seismic hazards. As a validation example, a seismic fragility assessment of an NPP containment structure is performed using a uniform hazard response spectrum and different single-scenario conditional mean spectra and multi-scenario conditional mean spectra. In the example, the number of scenarios primarily influences the median capacity of the evaluated structure. Meanwhile, the control frequency, a key parameter of a conditional mean spectrum, plays an important role in reducing logarithmic standard deviation of the corresponding fragility curves and corresponding high confidence of low probability of failure (HCLPF) capacity.

몬테칼로 방법을 사용할 사고후 영향 평가모델 (An Off-Site Consequence Modeling for Accident Using Monte Carlo Method)

  • Chang Sun Kang;Sae Yul Lee
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제16권3호
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    • pp.136-140
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    • 1984
  • 원자력발전소 사고 후 그 위험도를 평가하는 새로운 방법으로 몬테칼로 방법을 제시한다. 본 연구에서는 발전소 주위의 주민에게 주는 방사선의 영향을 평가하기 위하여 공기중의 확산계산에 부지에서 측정한 기상조건을 직접 사용하고 있다. 사고가 일어나는 순간에서의 화산조건은 주어진 기상자료로부터 분석된 pdf에 의하여 결정되고 그이후의 조건(풍향, 풍속, 안정도)은 마르코프 조건을 만족시킨다고 가정하였다. 예제로써 KNU-1의 냉각재 상실사고를 분석한 절과 50마일내의 주민이 받는 선량은 50퍼센트 신뢰도를 갖고 200 man-Sv이다.

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TREATING UNCERTAINTIES IN A NUCLEAR SEISMIC PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT BY MEANS OF THE DEMPSTER-SHAFER THEORY OF EVIDENCE

  • Lo, Chung-Kung;Pedroni, N.;Zio, E.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제46권1호
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    • pp.11-26
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    • 2014
  • The analyses carried out within the Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessments (SPRAs) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) are affected by significant aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. These uncertainties have to be represented and quantified coherently with the data, information and knowledge available, to provide reasonable assurance that related decisions can be taken robustly and with confidence. The amount of data, information and knowledge available for seismic risk assessment is typically limited, so that the analysis must strongly rely on expert judgments. In this paper, a Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) framework for handling uncertainties in NPP SPRAs is proposed and applied to an example case study. The main contributions of this paper are two: (i) applying the complete DST framework to SPRA models, showing how to build the Dempster-Shafer structures of the uncertainty parameters based on industry generic data, and (ii) embedding Bayesian updating based on plant specific data into the framework. The results of the application to a case study show that the approach is feasible and effective in (i) describing and jointly propagating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in SPRA models and (ii) providing 'conservative' bounds on the safety quantities of interest (i.e. Core Damage Frequency, CDF) that reflect the (limited) state of knowledge of the experts about the system of interest.