• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.199-226
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• 2009

We examine the intertemporal relation between risk and return in the Korean stock market and foreign exchange market based on the two factor ICAPM framework. The standard GARCH model and the GJR(1993) model are employed to estimate conditional variances of the stock returns and foreign exchange rates. The covariance between the rates of stock returns and changes in the exchange rates are estimated by the constant conditional correlation model of Bollerslev(1990) and the dynamic conditional correlation model of Engle(2002). The multivariate GARCH in mean model and quasi-maximum likelihood estimation method, consequently, are applied to investigate riskreturn relation jointly. We find that the estimated coefficient of relative risk aversion is negative and statistically significant in the post-financial crisis sample period in the Korean stock market. We also show that the expected stock returns are negatively related to the dynamic covariance with foreign exchange rates. Both estimated parameters of conditional variance and covariance in the foreign exchange market, however, are not statistically significant. The GJR model is better than the standard GARCH model to estimate the conditional variances. In addition, the dynamic conditional correlation model has higher explanatory power than the constant correlation model. The empirical results of this study suggest following two points to investors and risk managers in hedging and diversifying strategies for their portfolios in the Korean stock market: first, the variability of foreign exchange rates should be considered, and second, time-varying correlation between stock returns and changes in foreign exchange rates supposed to be considered.

• Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.2883-2893
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• 2018

We suggest a stratified conditional unrelated question randomized response model to more efficiently estimate a sensitive character A when the population is composed of several strata. In that model, only the respondents who answered "yes" through randomization device which was consisted of a less sensitive character B and a question forcing to answer "yes" respond to our suggested model and we deal with two allocation problems of proportional allocation and optimal one. We expand the suggested model into two sample stratified conditional unrelated question model to cover the case of unknowing unrelated character and deduce minimal variance through optimal sample size of stratum h. Finally, we show that the suggested model is more efficiency than stratified unrelated models and the stratified Carr et al.'s model (1982) under some given conditions, and show numerically that the smaller the values ${\pi}_{h2}$ and ${\pi}_{hy}$, the more efficiency the fit of the model.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.557-573
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• 2015

In this paper we develop a Bayesian inference for a multiplicative double seasonal autoregressive (DSAR) model by implementing a fast, easy and accurate Gibbs sampling algorithm. We apply the Gibbs sampling to approximate empirically the marginal posterior distributions after showing that the conditional posterior distribution of the model parameters and the variance are multivariate normal and inverse gamma, respectively. The proposed Bayesian methodology is illustrated using simulated examples and real-world time series data.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.81-94
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• 2000

For the balanced variance component model, sometimes intraclass correlation coefficient is of interest. If there is little information about the parameter, then the reference prior(Berger and Bernardo, 1992) is widely used. Pettit nd Young(1990) considered a measrue of the effect of a single observation on a logarithmic Bayes factor. However, under such a reference prior, the Bayes factor depends on the ratio of unspecified constants. In order to discard this problem, influence diagnostic measures using the intrinsic Bayes factor(Berger and Pericchi, 1996) is presented. Finally, one simulated dataset is provided which illustrates the methodology with appropriate simulation based computational formulas. In order to overcome the difficult Bayesian computation, MCMC methods, such as Gibbs sampler(Gelfand and Smith, 1990) and Metropolis algorithm, are empolyed.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.117-128
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• 2003

The goal of non-inferiority experiments is to show that the new treatment is not inferior to the standard experiment. In this paper we compare the three methods of variance estimation used in the unconditional exact tests of two proportions. The size and power of the tests with each variance estimation method are compared using complete enumeration.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• 2007.10a
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• pp.225-228
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• 2007

This paper presents a geostatistical methodology to model local uncertainty in spatial estimation of sediment grain size with high-resolution remote sensing imagery. Within a multi-Gaussian framework, the IKONOS imagery is used as local means both to estimate the grain size values and to model local uncertainty at unsample locations. A conditional cumulative distribution function (ccdf) at any locations is defined by mean and variance values which can be estimated by multi-Gaussian kriging with local means. Two ccdf statistics including condition variance and interquartile range are used here as measures of local uncertainty and are compared through a cross validation analysis. In addition to local uncertainty measures, the probabilities of not exceeding or exceeding any grain size value at any locations are retrieved and mapped from the local ccdf models. A case study of Baramarae beach, Korea is carried out to illustrate the potential of geostatistical uncertainty modeling.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• v.15 no.7
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• pp.925-931
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• 2002

Gibbs sampling algorithms were implemented to the multi-trait threshold animal models with any combinations of multiple binary, ordered categorical, and linear traits and investigate the amount of bias on these models with two kinds of parameterization and algorithms for generating underlying liabilities. Statistical models which included additive genetic and residual effects as random and contemporary group effects as fixed were considered on the models using simulated data. The fully conditional posterior means of heritabilities and genetic (residual) correlations were calculated from 1,000 samples retained every 10th samples after 15,000 samples discarded as "burn-in" period. Under the models considered, several combinations of three traits with binary, multiple ordered categories, and continuous were analyzed. Five replicates were carried out. Estimates for heritabilities and genetic (residual) correlations as the posterior means were unbiased when underlying liabilities for a categorical trait were generated given by underlying liabilities of the other traits and threshold estimates were rescaled. Otherwise, when parameterizing threshold of zero and residual variance of one for binary traits, heritability estimates were inflated 7-10% upward. Genetic correlation estimates were biased upward if positively correlated and downward if negatively correlated when underling liabilities were generated without accounting for correlated traits on prior information. Residual correlation estimates were, consequently, much biased downward if positively correlated and upward if negatively correlated in that case. The more categorical trait had categories, the better mixing rate was shown.

• Journal of KIISE
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• v.41 no.11
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• pp.927-934
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• 2014

In this paper, we propose an effective method for recognizing daily human activities from a stream of three dimensional body poses, which can be obtained by using Kinect-like RGB-D sensors. The body pose data provided by Kinect SDK or OpenNI may suffer from both the view variance problem and the scale variance problem, since they are represented in the 3D Cartesian coordinate system, the origin of which is located on the center of Kinect. In order to resolve the problem and get the view-invariant and scale-invariant features, we transform the pose data into the spherical coordinate system of which the origin is placed on the center of the subject's hip, and then perform on them the scale normalization using the length of the subject's arm. In order to represent effectively complex internal structures of high-level daily activities, we utilize Hidden state Conditional Random Field (HCRF), which is one of probabilistic graphical models. Through various experiments using two different datasets, KAD-70 and CAD-60, we showed the high performance of our method and the implementation system.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.53-60
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• 2007

Conditionally heteroscedastic time series models such as GARCH processes have frequently provided useful approximations to the real aspects of financial time series. It is not uncommon that financial time series exhibits near non-stationary, say, integrated phenomenon. For stationary GARCH processes, a shock to the current conditional variance will be exponentially converging to zero and thus asymptotically negligible for the future conditional variance. However, for the case of integrated process, the effect will remain for a long time, i.e., we have a persistent effect of a current shock on the future observations. We are here concerned with providing empirical evidences of persistent GARCH(1,1) for various fifteen domestic financial time series including KOSPI, KOSDAQ and won-dollar exchange rate. To this end, kurtosis and Integrated-GARCH(1,1) fits are reported for each data.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.61-69
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• 2011

In GARCH context, the conditional variance (or volatility) is of a quadratic function of the observation process. Examine standard ARCH/GARCH and their variant models in terms of quadratic formulations and it is interesting to note that most models in GARCH context have contained neither the first order term nor the interaction term. In this paper, we consider three models possessing the first order and/or interaction terms in the formulation of conditional variances, viz., quadratic GARCH, absolute value GARCH and bilinear GARCH processes. These models are investigated with a view to model comparisons and applications to financial time series in Korea