• Title/Summary/Keyword: conditional mean

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Comparative analysis of the wind characteristics of three landfall typhoons based on stationary and nonstationary wind models

  • Quan, Yong;Fu, Guo Qiang;Huang, Zi Feng;Gu, Ming
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.269-285
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    • 2020
  • The statistical characteristics of typhoon wind speed records tend to have a considerable time-varying trend; thus, the stationary wind model may not be appropriate to estimate the wind characteristics of typhoon events. Several nonstationary wind speed models have been proposed by pioneers to characterize wind characteristics more accurately, but comparative studies on the applicability of the different wind models are still lacking. In this study, three landfall typhoons, Ampil, Jongdari, and Rumbia, recorded by ultrasonic anemometers atop the Shanghai World Financial Center (SWFC), are used for the comparative analysis of stationary and nonstationary wind characteristics. The time-varying mean is extracted with the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) method, and the time-varying standard deviation is calculated by the autoregressive moving average generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMA-GARCH) model. After extracting the time-varying trend, the longitudinal wind characteristics, e.g., the probability distribution, power spectral density (PSD), turbulence integral scale, turbulence intensity, gust factor, and peak factor, are comparatively analyzed based on the stationary wind speed model, time-varying mean wind speed model and time-varying standard deviation wind speed model. The comparative analysis of the different wind models emphasizes the significance of the nonstationary considerations in typhoon events. The time-varying standard deviation model can better identify the similarities among the different typhoons and appropriately describe the nonstationary wind characteristics of the typhoons.

Evaluation of the Influence of Shear Strength Correction through a Comparative Study of Nonlinear Site Response Models (비선형 지반구성모델의 비교를 통한 전단강도 보정이 부지응답해석에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Aaqib, Muhammad;Park, Duhee;Kim, Hansup;Adeel, Muhammad Bilal;Nizamani, Zubair Ahmed
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.36 no.12
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    • pp.77-86
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    • 2020
  • In this study, the importance of implied strength correction for shallow depths at a region of moderate to low seismicity with primary focus on its effect upon site natural period and mean period of the ground motion is investigated. In addition to the most commonly used Modified Kondner-Zelasko (MKZ) model, this paper uses a quadratic/hyperbolic (GQ/H) model that can capture the stress - strain response at large strains as well as small strain stiffness dependence. A total of six site profiles by downhole tests are used and 1D site response analyses are performed using three input motions with contrasting mean periods. The difference between non-corrected and corrected analyses is conditional on the site period as well as mean ground motion period. The effect of periods is analyzed by correlating them with the effective peak ground acceleration, maximum shear strains and amplification factors. The comparative study reveals that the difference is more prominent in soft sites with long site periods. Insignificant differences are observed when soil profiles are subjected to ground motion with very short mean period.

Effects of Social Exclusion on Displaced Aggression: the Mediatingon Effect of Stress and Conditional Direct Effect of Social Support (사회적 배제가 전위된 공격성에 미치는 영향: 스트레스의 매개효과 및 사회적지지의 조건부 직접효과)

  • Yoonjae Noh;Sangyeon Yoon
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.455-476
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    • 2023
  • This study focused on the characteristics of motiveless crimes that mainly originated from interpersonal problems and were acts of revenge against innocent third parties. This study confirmed the relationship between the experience of social exclusion and displaced aggression and examined the relationship between the two variables. We sought to confirm the role of related factors such as stress and social support. For this purpose, we established and tested hypotheses about the mediatingon effect of stress and the moderated mediatingon effect of social support on the effect of social exclusion experience on displaced aggression among 353 adult males aged between 19 and 49 years. The main results are that, first, social exclusion had a positive effect on displaced aggression. Second, stress was found to partially mediate the relationship between social exclusion and displaced aggression. Third, the hypothesis that social support would moderate the mediating effect of stress was not provedvaild, but the conditional direct effect of social support was confirmed in the mediation model. In other words, social support did not affect the indirect effect mediated by stress, but appeared to moderate the direct effect between social exclusion and displaced aggression. Social exclusion's prediction of displaced aggression was significant only in the average social support group (mean) and the high group (M+1SD), and appeared to increase as the group increased. This means that in groups with high social support, displaced aggression is used as a stress control strategy, which is a different result from previous studies that found that social support plays a role in lowerings aggression. People with low levels of social support showed unexpected results in that they used displaced aggression less frequently despite their experiencinge of social exclusion. In the discussion, the social implications of these results were interpreted, and additional research ideas were proposed to specify the relationship between social exclusion and displaced aggression.

Upgraded quadratic inference functions for longitudinal data with type II time-dependent covariates

  • Cho, Gyo-Young;Dashnyam, Oyunchimeg
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.211-218
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    • 2014
  • Qu et. al. (2000) proposed the quadratic inference functions (QIF) method to marginal model analysis of longitudinal data to improve the generalized estimating equations (GEE). It yields a substantial improvement in efficiency for the estimators of regression parameters when the working correlation is misspecified. But for the longitudinal data with time-dependent covariates, when the implicit full covariates conditional mean (FCCM) assumption is violated, the QIF can not provide more consistent and efficient estimator than GEE (Cho and Dashnyam, 2013). Lai and Small (2007) divided time-dependent covariates into three types and proposed generalized method of moment (GMM) for longitudinal data with time-dependent covariates. They showed that their GMM type II and GMM moment selection methods can be more ecient than GEE with independence working correlation (GEE-ind) in the case of type II time-dependent covariates. We develop upgraded QIF method for type II time-dependent covariates. We show that this upgraded QIF method can provide substantial gains in efficiency over QIF and GEE-ind in the case of type II time-dependent covariates.

Valuing Attributes of Fluid Milk in Laos

  • Lee, Jae Won;Kim, Taeyoon;Napasirth, Viengsakoun
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.259-274
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    • 2017
  • This study estimates the random utility function of fluid milk using 1,165 survey responses in Laos. It finds that both products' attributes and individual characteristics affect consumers' preference for the milk and the hypothetical brand of Laos-Korea has a potential compared to four real dairy products. Results also show that calories have a positive relationship with consumer's preference while the price and fat content have a negative one. The decision for choosing each brand is significantly affected by individual characteristics such as gender, age, whether or not respondents live with their children, the level of education, income, the frequency of purchasing milk per week, and the region where they live. The preference for five brands appears in the order of Foremost, Nabong, Thai-Danish, Meiji, and Lao-Korea, and probabilities of purchasing each brand at the mean level are 30.9%, 17.48%, 21.48%, 15.0% and 10.39%, respectively. Nabong that was Lao national milk brand still has a significant market power even though it was closed in 2008. The policies to promote milk industry by implementing its national milk brand again would be more effective if it focuses on the young generation, female consumers, families with children, quality of dairy products, and Vientiane capital areas.

Dynamic Synchronous Phasor Measurement Algorithm Based on Compressed Sensing

  • Yu, Huanan;Li, Yongxin;Du, Yao
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.53-76
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    • 2020
  • The synchronous phasor measurement algorithm is the core content of the phasor measurement unit. This manuscript proposes a dynamic synchronous phasor measurement algorithm based on compressed sensing theory. First, a dynamic signal model based on the Taylor series was established. The dynamic power signal was preprocessed using a least mean square error adaptive filter to eliminate interference from noise and harmonic components. A Chirplet overcomplete dictionary was then designed to realize a sparse representation. A reduction of the signal dimension was next achieved using a Gaussian observation matrix. Finally, the improved orthogonal matching pursuit algorithm was used to realize the sparse decomposition of the signal to be detected, the amplitude and phase of the original power signal were estimated according to the best matching atomic parameters, and the total vector error index was used for an error evaluation. Chroma 61511 was used for the output of various signals, the simulation results of which show that the proposed algorithm cannot only effectively filter out interference signals, it also achieves a better dynamic response performance and stability compared with a traditional DFT algorithm and the improved DFT synchronous phasor measurement algorithm, and the phasor measurement accuracy of the signal is greatly improved. In practical applications, the hardware costs of the system can be further reduced.

Volatility Analysis for Multivariate Time Series via Dimension Reduction (차원축소를 통한 다변량 시계열의 변동성 분석 및 응용)

  • Song, Eu-Gine;Choi, Moon-Sun;Hwang, S.Y.
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.825-835
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    • 2008
  • Multivariate GARCH(MGARCH) has been useful in financial studies and econometrics for modeling volatilities and correlations between components of multivariate time series. An obvious drawback lies in that the number of parameters increases rapidly with the number of variables involved. This thesis tries to resolve the problem by using dimension reduction technique. We briefly review both factor models for dimension reduction and the MGARCH models including EWMA (Exponentially weighted moving-average model), DVEC(Diagonal VEC model), BEKK and CCC(Constant conditional correlation model). We create meaningful portfolios obtained after reducing dimension through statistical factor models and fundamental factor models and in turn these portfolios are applied to MGARCH. In addition, we compare portfolios by assessing MSE, MAD(Mean absolute deviation) and VaR(Value at Risk). Various financial time series are analyzed for illustration.

Money management behaviors of college students according to credit card usage (신용카드 이용여부에 따른 대학생 소비자의 재무관리행동에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hyo-Chung
    • Korean Journal of Human Ecology
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.95-105
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    • 2005
  • This study examined the factors affecting college students' money management behaviors according to credit card usage. The data were collected from 481 college students in Busan and Gyeongnam areas by a self-administered questionnaire. Frequencies, Cronbach's Alpha, factor analyses, t-test, Pearson's correlation analysis, and regression analyses were conducted by SPSS WINDOWS. The results from this study were as follows. First, there were significant differences between credit card usage group and non-usage group in the means for future preparation, stingy attitude, and planned expenditure. However, there was no significant difference in the mean of money management behaviors. Second, for the credit card usage group, the significant variables affecting money management behaviors included sex, grade, experience of consumer education, father's occupation, monthly household income, future preparation, stingy attitude, methods of emotional change, planned expenditure, and negative recognition. On the other hand, for the non-usage group, grade, experience of consumer education, father's occupation, way of success, future preparation, stingy attitude, planned expenditure, and conditional permission were significant. These results imply that financial management education including values about money and consumption patterns should be conducted.

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Efficiency and Robustness of Fully Adaptive Simulated Maximum Likelihood Method

  • Oh, Man-Suk;Kim, Dai-Gyoung
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.479-485
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    • 2009
  • When a part of data is unobserved the marginal likelihood of parameters given the observed data often involves analytically intractable high dimensional integral and hence it is hard to find the maximum likelihood estimate of the parameters. Simulated maximum likelihood(SML) method which estimates the marginal likelihood via Monte Carlo importance sampling and optimize the estimated marginal likelihood has been used in many applications. A key issue in SML is to find a good proposal density from which Monte Carlo samples are generated. The optimal proposal density is the conditional density of the unobserved data given the parameters and the observed data, and attempts have been given to find a good approximation to the optimal proposal density. Algorithms which adaptively improve the proposal density have been widely used due to its simplicity and efficiency. In this paper, we describe a fully adaptive algorithm which has been used by some practitioners but has not been well recognized in statistical literature, and evaluate its estimation performance and robustness via a simulation study. The simulation study shows a great improvement in the order of magnitudes in the mean squared error, compared to non-adaptive or partially adaptive SML methods. Also, it is shown that the fully adaptive SML is robust in a sense that it is insensitive to the starting points in the optimization routine.

A Robust Fingertip Extraction and Extended CAMSHIFT based Hand Gesture Recognition for Natural Human-like Human-Robot Interaction (강인한 손가락 끝 추출과 확장된 CAMSHIFT 알고리즘을 이용한 자연스러운 Human-Robot Interaction을 위한 손동작 인식)

  • Lee, Lae-Kyoung;An, Su-Yong;Oh, Se-Young
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.328-336
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, we propose a robust fingertip extraction and extended Continuously Adaptive Mean Shift (CAMSHIFT) based robust hand gesture recognition for natural human-like HRI (Human-Robot Interaction). Firstly, for efficient and rapid hand detection, the hand candidate regions are segmented by the combination with robust $YC_bC_r$ skin color model and haar-like features based adaboost. Using the extracted hand candidate regions, we estimate the palm region and fingertip position from distance transformation based voting and geometrical feature of hands. From the hand orientation and palm center position, we find the optimal fingertip position and its orientation. Then using extended CAMSHIFT, we reliably track the 2D hand gesture trajectory with extracted fingertip. Finally, we applied the conditional density propagation (CONDENSATION) to recognize the pre-defined temporal motion trajectories. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm not only rapidly extracts the hand region with accurately extracted fingertip and its angle but also robustly tracks the hand under different illumination, size and rotation conditions. Using these results, we successfully recognize the multiple hand gestures.