• Title/Summary/Keyword: commodity market

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A Study on the Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Korean Macro Economic Activities : An EGARCH and VECM Approach (국제유가의 변동성이 한국 거시경제에 미치는 영향 분석 : EGARCH 및 VECM 모형의 응용)

  • Kim, Sang-Su
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.11 no.10
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    • pp.73-79
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - This study examines the impact of oil price volatility on economic activities in Korea. The new millennium has seen a deregulation in the crude oil market, which invited immense capital inflow into Korea. It has also raised oil price levels and volatility. Drawing on the recent theoretical literature that emphasizes the role of volatility, this paper attends to the asymmetric changes in economic growth in response to the oil price movement. This study further examines several key macroeconomic variables, such as interest rate, production, and inflation. We come to the conclusion that oil price volatility can, in some part, explain the structural changes. Research design, data, and methodology - We use two methodological frameworks in this study. First, in regards to the oil price uncertainty, we use an Exponential-GARCH (Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity: EGARCH) model estimate to elucidate the asymmetric effect of oil price shock on the conditional oil price volatility. Second, along with the estimation of the conditional volatility by the EGARCH model, we use the estimates in a VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). The study thus examines the dynamic impacts of oil price volatility on industrial production, price levels, and monetary policy responses. We also approximate the monetary policy function by the yield of monetary stabilization bond. The data collected for the study ranges from 1990: M1 to 2013: M7. In the VECM analysis section, the time span is split into two sub-periods; one from 1990 to 1999, and another from 2000 to 2013, due to the U.S. CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) deregulation on the crude oil futures that became effective in 2000. This paper intends to probe the relationship between oil price uncertainty and macroeconomic variables since the structural change in the oil market became effective. Results and Conclusions - The dynamic impulse response functions obtained from the VECM show a prolonged dampening effect of oil price volatility shock on the industrial production across all sub-periods. We also find that inflation measured by CPI rises by one standard deviation shock in response to oil price uncertainty, and lasts for the ensuing period. In addition, the impulse response functions allude that South Korea practices an expansionary monetary policy in response to oil price shocks, which stems from oil price uncertainty. Moreover, a comparison of the results of the dynamic impulse response functions from the two sub-periods suggests that the dynamic relationships have strengthened since 2000. Specifically, the results are most drastic in terms of industrial production; the impact of oil price volatility shocks has more than doubled from the year 2000 onwards. These results again indicate that the relationships between crude oil price uncertainty and Korean macroeconomic activities have been strengthened since the year2000, which resulted in a structural change in the crude oil market due to the deregulation of the crude oil futures.

Determinants of the Location and Relocation of Domestic Logistics Firms in Korea (focused on complementary commodity flow survey for 2006) (우리나라 국내 화주기업의 입지 및 재입지 선택 특성 분석 (2006년 물류현황보완조사를 중심으로))

  • Do, Hwa-Yong;Jang, Hoon;Kim, Chan-Sung;Won, Jai-Mu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.37-49
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    • 2008
  • In general, most of the firms do not settle down in one place for their pursuit of profit. There are many reasons for the relocation of the firms; procurement of raw material, market area, transportation cost and housing cost. The aspect of national policy, firm relocation has been systemically promoted for the purpose of logistics system efficiency. Nowadays balanced regional development has been issue. Another aspect, many countries have struggled for the preoccupancy of new place because of its production cost saving and curtailment of expenditure. The aim of this article is qualitative and quantitative analysis of relocation influence factors of domestic goods firms in Korea. This article dynamically analyzed the relocation influence factors for domestic goods firms in Korea. For the analysis this article made use of complementary survey (2006) out of the 3rd national logistics survey (2005). The complementary survey conducted pre-business district, business period, relocation reason, etc. This article dynamically analyzed from the three aspects; observation of average residence time in one business district, relocation factors, influence of market area. Analysis shows that relocation of firm is very high rate and the reasons of relocation play compositeness role. The results of determinants of location, firms approach the established market area closely and the firm's relocation is influenced by market area.

Factor Analysis Affecting on Changes in Handysize Freight Index and Spot Trip Charterage (핸디사이즈 운임지수 및 스팟용선료 변화에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Kim, Tae-Woo;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.73-89
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    • 2021
  • The handysize bulk carriers are capable of transporting a variety of cargo that cannot be transported by mid-large size ship, and the spot chartering market is active, and it is a market that is independent of mid-large size market, and is more risky due to market conditions and charterage variability. In this study, Granger causality test, the Impulse Response Function(IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition(FEVD) were performed using monthly time series data. As a result of Granger causality test, coal price for coke making, Japan steel plate commodity price, hot rolled steel sheet price, fleet volume and bunker price have causality to Baltic Handysize Index(BHSI) and charterage. After confirming the appropriate lag and stability of the Vector Autoregressive model(VAR), IRF and FEVD were analyzed. As a result of IRF, the three variables of coal price for coke making, hot rolled steel sheet price and bunker price were found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. Among them, the impulse of hot rolled steel sheet price was found to have the most significant effect. As a result of FEVD, the explanatory power that affects BHSI and charterage is the same in the order of hot rolled steel sheet price, coal price for coke making, bunker price, Japan steel plate price, and fleet volume. It was found that it gradually increased, affecting BHSI by 30% and charterage by 26%. In order to differentiate from previous studies and to find out the effect of short term lag, analysis was performed using monthly price data of major cargoes for Handysize bulk carriers, and meaningful results were derived that can predict monthly market conditions. This study can be helpful in predicting the short term market conditions for shipping companies that operate Handysize bulk carriers and concerned parties in the handysize chartering market.

The Strategic Approach to FTA Governmental Negotiation Method between China (중국과의 FTA 협상방식을 위한 전략적 접근)

  • Na, Seung-Hwa
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2010
  • Since Korea establish diplomatic ties with China in 1992, korea and China have had rapid progress in most of field as politic, economy, society and culture through basing on cultural commonality and geographical adjacency. Especially, China is the biggest trading partner to korea, and also Korea is third-biggest trading country to China. They become strategic cooperating relation in 2008. Currently, in terms of international trade relation, WTO/DDA negotiation is proceeding in difficulty, but FTA has been growing and extending in the world, and the two country, china and korea, have been competitively trying wide and active FTA negotiation promotion. After Financial crisis in 1997, according to the requirement of local economic cooperation, China has shown the interest to several countries since the conclusion of FTA treaty with ASEAN in 2005. China also makes the active afford to conclude FTA with Korea. Last May 28th, this was mentioned in the meeting between president Lee and Premier Wen Jiabao, so it is anticipated that the negotiation for FTA will be started in the near future. There are many political suggestions and concerns in terms of way of negotiation korea would choose. Some economist said that "'Continuous FTA aimed at long-term protocol should be promoted between korea and China and negotiated includingly'" However, this research claims that commodity exchange, service, and investment areas should be included and it has to be comprehensive package settlement style in negotiation. This research has found out the characteristics of China's negotiation and implications through the China's existed FTA negotiation examples. Currently, China has taken Continuous or a phase-negotiation method to ASEAN, Pakistan, Chile and some other developing country and to advanced countries like New Zealand or Singapore, comprehensive package settlement method is used in FTA negotiation. In consider of the FTA negotiation between Korea and China, Korea has some problems in the commodity change area in agriculture maket's opening. While, for china, the issues would happen in service trade area, especially when encountering finance and communication industries are opened, China's economy could be exposed to some risk. In result, Korea should expand its negotiation range from commodity trade to service trade, in order to exchange both issues, then the negotiation will be concluded more easily. In other word, for FTA, korea should follow comprehensive package settlement way that is similar to New zealand and Singapore case. Through this kind of method, Korea can expect effect of creating trade, conversion of it and preoccupancy of service field in china's market against the advanced countries like Usa, Europe and Japan. Also, to have a successful FTA negotiation, korea should find out china's policy for FTA negotiation. With this information, korea will be able to suggest the way to make a profit. Systematic analysis and comparison about previous negotiation cases of china are needed before the negotiation begin.

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A Study on Spatial Distributions of Value Chain in Korean Cosmetic Industry (우리나라 화장품산업 가치사슬의 공간적 분포)

  • Gu, Ji-Yeong;Ahn, Young-Jin
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.550-565
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    • 2016
  • The size of Korean and global cosmetic industry market are consistently growing and the domestic cosmetic industry's rate of total production increase is higher than GDP in Korea. In addition, the Korean Wave has strengthened not only this phenomenon but also the increase of exports. For these reasons, the purpose of this paper is to analyze Korean cosmetic industry regarded as a new growth engine. For this study, Porter's Value Chain theory, Mudambi's Smile of Value Creation, Cosmetic GMP by ISO, and the production process on cosmetic industry are used as tools. As a result, Korean cosmetic industry comprises five nodes value chains: R&D, Raw Material Manufacture, Container Manufacture, Cosmetic Manufacture, and Marketing. And then, based on this result, the spatial analysis is conducted to identify spatial distribution characteristics of each node.

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Aflatoxin Residues in Agricultural Commodities Determined by Direct ELISA (ELISA에 의한 농산물중 Aflatoxin 잔류 조사)

  • 조명행;손동화;이문한
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.281-287
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    • 1997
  • We have reported a sensitive, specific and simple direct competitive ELISA method to detect aflatoxin in agricultural commodities. We evaluated the ELISA for practical use to detect aflatoxins contaminated in the domestic and foreign agricultural commodities. The detection limits of the direct ELISA for residual aflatoxins in rice, pine nuts, corns, almonds, bean nuts, and pistachio were 10 ppb and in peanuts and cashew nuts were 20 ppb, which were elucidated from the standard curves of ELISA for aflatoxin fortified into the agricultural commodities. Residue studies of naturally contaminated aflatoxins in the agricultural commodities were also carried out by using direct ELISA. As the results of the studies, it was revealed that there were no residues of aflatoxins in 20 rice samples produced in south Korea, 20 pine nut samples in south Korea (9 samples), USA (1 sample) and China (10 samples), each of 20 almond, pistachio and bean nut samples in USA. However, aflatoxin residues were detected in corn samples imported from north Korea (350∼585 ppb in 2 of 3 samples), from USA (109*326 ppb in 6 of 6 samples) and domestic corns (61-326 ppb in 7 of 17 samples). The toxins were contaminated in corn imported from USA for popcorn (17∼20 ppb, in 3 of 10 samples) whereas no residues were detected in corn from south Korea and China. In case of cashew nuts imported from India, 11.4∼23.1 ppb of aflatoxins were detected in 4 from 20 samples. Most of the contaminated foods were harvested before 1995. Thus, hygienic managements of the foods should be required during storage and circulation at market.

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A Survey on Ochratoxin a Contamination of Commercial Medicinal Herbs in Incheon (인천지역 유통 생약 중 Ochratoxin A 오염실태 조사)

  • Lim, Soo-sun;Joo, Gwang-sig;Choi, Eun-Jeong;Lee, Soo-Yeon;Lim, Yun-sun;Eum, Sun-Ah;Jo, Nam-Kyu;Lee, Sung-Mo
    • Korean Journal of Pharmacognosy
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.56-62
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    • 2017
  • The aim of this study was to screen the contamination by ochratoxin A of mycotoxins in various medicinal herbs. We conducted a survey of ochratoxin A in medicinal herb on the retail market in Incheon in 2016. 116 medicinal herb samples were evaluated for the ochratoxin A contamination. They were analyzed for ochratoxin A using immunoaffinity column and high-performance liquid chromatography(HPLC)-fluorescence detection and the positive samples were confirmed using HPLC-tandem mass spectrometry. Ochratoxin A was detected in 4 medicinal herb samples; the concentrations of ochratoxin A were containing between 20.11 and $372.90{\mu}g/kg$. This study shows that in general, this kind of commodity may be contaminated by mycotoxins. Also this contamination is not limited to only aflatoxin of mycotoxins.

Exploration of emerging technologies based on patent analysis in complex product systems for catch-up: the case of gas turbine (복합제품시스템 추격을 위한 특허 기반 부상기술 탐색: 가스터빈 사례를 중심으로)

  • Kwak, Kiho;Park, Joohyoung
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.27-50
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    • 2016
  • Korean manufacturing industry have recently faced the catch-up of China in the mass commodity product, such as automotive, display, and smart phone in terms of market as well as technology. Accordingly, discussion on the importance of achieving catch-up in complex product systems (CoPS) has been increasing as a new innovation engine for the industry. In order to achieve successful catch-up of CoPS, we explored emerging technologies of CoPS, which are featured by the characteristics of radical novelty, relatively fast growth and self-sustaining, through the study of emerging technologies of gas turbine for power generation. We found that emerging technologies of the gas turbine are technologies for combustion nozzle and composition of electrical machine for increasing power efficiency, washing technology for particulate matter, cast and material processing technology for enhancing durability from fatigue, cooling technologies from extremely high temperature, interconnection operation technology between renewable energy and the gas turbine for flexibility in power generation, and big data technology for remote monitoring and diagnosis of the gas turbine. We also found that those emerging technologies resulted in technological progress of the gas turbine by converging with other conventional technologies in the gas turbine. It indicates that emerging technologies in CoPS can be appeared on various technological knowledge fields and have complementary relationship with conventional technologies for technology progress of CoPS. It also implies that latecomers need to pursue integrated learning that includes emerging technologies as well as conventional technologies rather than independent learning related to emerging technologies for successful catch-up of CoPS. Our findings provide an important initial theoretical ground for investigating the emerging technologies and their characteristics in CoPS as well as recognizing knowledge management strategy for successful catch-up of latecomers. Our findings also contribute to the policy development of the CoPS from the perspective of innovation strategy and knowledge management.

A Literature Study on Digital Currency and Historical Developments of Money: Dynamic Pattern in Currency, Central Bank Digital Currency and Libra (디지털화폐와 화폐 변천과정에 관한 문헌적 연구: 동적패턴, CBDC, 리브라를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Euiseok
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.109-126
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    • 2020
  • This study attempts to find out the characteristics of digital currency and currency transformation through the analytical descriptions of the literature. In the early days of the emergence of new currency, market-oriented autonomous monetary adjustment was made along with various attempts by the private sector, and then government-centered central currency management and coordination were made for the national monopoly of profits and power. Digital currency can be seen as the emergence of a new form of money that will bring about paradigm changes. CBDC can be divided into direct and indirect types. CBDC is expected to require a strategic approach by the government or firm as it will bring about changes in the ecosystem of related industries. Libra is a stablecoin designed to minimize price fluctuations, and if it succeeds in commercializing it, it is expected to bring about revolutionary changes in the financial industry around the world.

A Mathematical Programming Approach for Cloud Service Brokerage (클라우드 서비스 중개를 위한 수리과학 모형연구)

  • Chang, Byeong-Yun;Abate, Yabibal Afework;Yoon, Seung Hyun;Seo, Dong-Won
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.143-150
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    • 2014
  • Cloud computing is fast becoming the wave of the future for both home and business computing. Because of this growing acceptance, we can expect an explosion of diverse cloud service providers in the coming years. However, the cloud is not a single entity, rather it is a set of many disconnected islands of application (SaaS), infrastructure (IaaS), and different platform (PaaS) services. Cloud brokering mechanisms are essential to transform the heterogeneous cloud market into a commodity-like service. Cloud service brokers (CSBs) are the new form of business entities to help to aggregate the scattered set of cloud services and make conveniently available to their diverse users. CSBs can reserve a certain percentage of their clients' (users') demand and satisfy the remaining portion in an on-demand basis. In doing so, they need to minimize cost of both reserved and on-demand instances as well as the distance of a link between the cloud service provider (CSP) and the user. The study proposes a reservation approach with a mixed integer model to optimizes the cloud service cost and quality.