• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.10
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• pp.1-13
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• 2022

This paper empirically explores the predicting ability of the newly proposed smooth transition (ST) time-varying combining forecast methods. The proposed method allows the "weight" of combining forecasts to change gradually over time through its unique feature of transition variables. Stock market returns from 7 countries were applied to Ad Hoc models, the well-known Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) family models, and the Smooth Transition Exponential Smoothing (STES) models. Of the individual models, GJRGARCH and STES-E&AE emerged as the best models and thereby were chosen for constructing the combined forecast models where a total of nine ST combining methods were developed. The robustness of the ST combining forecasts is also validated by the Diebold-Mariano (DM) test. The post-sample forecasting performance shows that ST combining forecast methods outperformed all the individual models and fixed weight combining models. This study contributes in two ways: 1) the ST combining methods statistically outperformed all the individual forecast methods and the existing traditional combining methods using simple averaging and Bates & Granger method. 2) trading volume as a transition variable in ST methods was superior to other individual models as well as the ST models with single sign or size of past shocks as transition variables.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.193-199
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• 2000

In many studies, considerable attention has been focussed upon choosing a model which represents underlying process of time series and forecasting the future. In the real world, however, there may be some cases that one model can not reflect all the characteristics of original time series. Under such circumstances, we may get better performance by combining the forecasts from several models. The most popular methods for combining forecasts involve taking a weighted average of multiple forecasts. But the weights are usually unstable. In cases the assumptions of normality and unbiasedness for forecast errors are satisfied, a Bayesian method can be used for updating the weights. In the real world, however, there are many circumstances the Bayesian method is not appropriate. This paper proposes a PNN(Probabilistic Neural Net) approach as a method for combining forecasts that can be applied when the assumption of normality or unbiasedness for forecast errors is not satisfied. In this paper, PNN method, which is similar to Bayesian approach, is suggested as an updating method of the unstable weights in the combination of the forecasts. The PNN method has been usually used in the field of pattern recognition. Unlike the Bayesian approach, it requires no assumption of a specific prior distribution because it gets probabilities by using the distribution estimated from given data. Empirical results reveal that the PNN method offers superior predictive capabilities.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2006.10a
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• pp.144-153
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• 2006

In order to take TC forecasts from different observatories into consideration, and make quantitative assessment and analysis for avoiding TC routes from the view of safety and cost, a new safe-economic decision making method of TC avoidance routing on ocean was put forward. This model is based on combining forecast of TC trace based on neural networks, technical method to determine the future TC wind and wave fields, technical method of fuzzy information optimization, risk analysis theory, and meteorological-economic decision making theory. It has applied to the simulation of MV Tianlihai's shipping on ocean. The result shows that the model can select the optimum plan from 7 plans, the selected plan is in accordance with the one selected by experienced captains.

• Water Engineering Research
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.101-109
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• 2004

Aggregating information by combining forecasts from two or more forecasting methods is an alternative to using forecasts from just a single method to improve forecast accuracy. This paper describes the development and use of a monthly inflow forecast model based on an optimal linear combination (OLC) of forecasts derived from naive, persistence, and Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) forecasts. Using the cross-validation technique, the OLC model made 1-month ahead probabilistic forecasts for the Chungju multi-purpose dam inflows for 15 years. For most of the verification months, the skill associated with the OLC forecast was superior to those drawn from the individual forecast techniques. Therefore this study demonstrates that OLC can improve the accuracy of the ESP forecast, especially during the dry season. This study also examined the value of the OLC forecasts in reservoir operations. Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) derived the optimal operating policy for the Chungju multi-purpose dam operation and the derived policy was simulated using the 15-year observed inflows. The simulation results showed the SDP model that updated its probability from the new OLC forecast provided more efficient operation decisions than the conventional SDP model.

• Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.9-17
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• 2013

Purpose: The goal of this study was to develop a methodology for the demand forecast of tractor, riding type rice transplanter and combine harvester using an ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) model, one of time series analysis methods, and to forecast their demands from 2012 to 2021 in South Korea. Methods: To forecast the demands of three kinds of machines, ARIMA models were constructed by following three stages; identification, estimation and diagnose. Time series used were supply and stock of each machine and the analysis tool was SAS 9.2 for Windows XP. Results: Six final models, supply based ones and stock based ones for each machine, were constructed from 32 tentative models identified by examining the ACF (autocorrelation function) plots and the PACF (partial autocorrelation function) plots. All demand series forecasted by the final models showed increasing trends and fluctuations with two-year period. Conclusions: Some forecast results of this study are not applicable immediately due to periodic fluctuation and large variation. However, it can be advanced by incorporating treatment of outliers or combining with another forecast methods.

• International Journal of Industrial Entomology and Biomaterials
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.107-113
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• 2003

Analysis of combining ability is a widely used biometrical tool to select promising parents and hybrids, to determine the kinds and relative magnitudes of genetic variability among hybrids as well as to forecast yield attributes in early breeding generations both in plants and animals. Various statistical approaches like Jinks and Hayman (1953), Griffing (1956), Kempthorne (1957) etc. have been extensively applied in plants. These approaches have also been tried in the mulberry silkworm, Bombyx mori L. In the present review, an attempt has been made to collect most of the studies carried out on combining ability in silkworm at one place and make it available to the scientists engaged in sericultural research.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.106-111
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• 2013

The heavy snow event occurred on JAN 4, 2010 brought huge disaster such as Gimpo International Airport runway closed, heavy delays of other airport, and property damage of 16 billion won. Though this heavy snow event is involved in the general synoptic scale heavy snow forecast, it recorded too much snow amount and longer duration than expected. To explain this unusual event, we used the conveyor belt theory. By combining the synoptic scale heavy snow forecast and the conveyor belt theory, the characteristics of heavy snow event was well explained.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.44 no.2
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• pp.179-196
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• 2012

An eigenspace projection clustering method is proposed for structural damage detection by combining projection algorithm and fuzzy clustering technique. The integrated procedure includes data selection, data normalization, projection, damage feature extraction, and clustering algorithm to structural damage assessment. The frequency response functions (FRFs) of the healthy and the damaged structure are used as initial data, median values of the projections are considered as damage features, and the fuzzy c-means (FCM) algorithm are used to categorize these features. The performance of the proposed method has been validated using a three-story frame structure built and tested by Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA. Two projection algorithms, namely principal component analysis (PCA) and kernel principal component analysis (KPCA), are compared for better extraction of damage features, further six kinds of distances adopted in FCM process are studied and discussed. The illustrated results reveal that the distance selection depends on the distribution of features. For the optimal choice of projections, it is recommended that the Cosine distance is used for the PCA while the Seuclidean distance and the Cityblock distance suitably used for the KPCA. The PCA method is recommended when a large amount of data need to be processed due to its higher correct decisions and less computational costs.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.71-81
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• 2004

There are four methods of landing of B747-400 during the crosswind condition. Pilots can choose either one of them. Those are: Sideslip/Wing low, De-Crab during Flare, Touchdown in Crab, Combining Crab and Sideslip. They decide to use one method by what they have learnt before. During the flight, the pilots choose the method, which depends on the weather forecast, and then try to land according to it. However, the weather condition always changes. In other words, the weather during planning and landing can be different, which can provide a difference between the previously expected situation and the actual one. Therefore, it is very important for the pilots to have the situation awareness. This study shows the direction and the prevention to avoid those errors, which are based on actual landing data of B747-400.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.10
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• pp.159-168
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• 2022

The time series of foreign trade turnover is complex and variable and contains linear and nonlinear information. This paper proposes preprocessing the dataset by the EMD algorithm and combining the linear prediction advantage of the SARIMA model with the nonlinear prediction advantage of the EMD-LSTM model to construct the SARIMA-EMD-LSTM hybrid model by the weight assignment method. The forecast performance of the single models is compared with that of the hybrid models by using MAPE and RMSE metrics. Furthermore, it is confirmed that the weight assignment approach can benefit from the hybrid models. The results show that the SARIMA model can capture the fluctuation pattern of the time series, but it cannot effectively predict the sudden drop in foreign trade turnover caused by special reasons and has the lowest accuracy in long-term forecasting. The EMD-LSTM model successfully resolves the hysteresis phenomenon and has the highest forecast accuracy of all models, with a MAPE of 7.4304%. Therefore, it can be effectively used to forecast the Sino-Russia foreign trade turnover time series post-epidemic. Hybrid models cannot take advantage of SARIMA linear and LSTM nonlinear forecasting, so weight assignment is not the best method to construct hybrid models.