• 제목/요약/키워드: climatic variable

검색결과 64건 처리시간 0.024초

Random Forest를 이용한 남한지역 쌀 수량 예측 연구 (Rice yield prediction in South Korea by using random forest)

  • 김준환;이주석;상완규;신평;조현숙;서명철
    • 한국농림기상학회지
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    • 제21권2호
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    • pp.75-84
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    • 2019
  • 이 연구의 목적은 random forest 를 활용하여 기상요소만을 이용하여 우리나라 전체의 벼 평균수량을 예측하는데 있다. Random forest 는 예측에 사용되는 각 predictor variable 을 분리할 수 있는데 이를 통해 분리된 시계열 상의 추세가 비정상적인 증가형태를 보였다. 이는 결국 예측능력의 저하로 이어지기 때문에 이를 제거할 필요가 있고 본 연구에서는 이동 평균을 이용하여 제거한 후 예측을 하였다. 1991 년부터 2005 년까지의 기상자료와 수량자료를 학습에 사용하였고 2006 년부터 2015 년까지의 자료들을 검증용으로 사용하였다. 학습자료에 대해서는 상당히 정확한 예측 능력을 보여주었으나 검증 자료에서는 그렇지 못하였다. 그 이유를 분석하기 위해 학습 자료와 검증자료에 대해서 각각 변수 중요도를 산출하여 비교한 결과 두 자료 간에 월별 기상 자료에 대한 중요도가 변동되었음을 발견하였다. 이러하 차이가 발생한 이유는 학습자료와 검증 자료에서의 전국적으로 표준이앙기가 이동하여 벼의 생육기간 자체가 변하였기 때문이다. 따라서, 정확한 예측을 위해서는 지역별 파종기 또는 이앙기에 대한 자료가 필요하며 단순히 기상 자료만을 활용한 예측은 어려운 것으로 생긱된다.

혼파초지에서 지역별 건물수량과 하고일수 간 관계 (The Relationships between Dry Matter Yield and Days of Summer Depression in different Regions with Mixed Pasture)

  • 오승민;김문주;팽경룬;이배훈;김지융;베페카두;김시철;김경대;김병완;조무환;성경일
    • 한국초지조사료학회지
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    • 제38권1호
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    • pp.53-60
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    • 2018
  • 본 연구는 혼파초지 수량예측모형에서 기후특성이 뚜렷한 지역의 자료 제거 및 지역별 구분을 통해 건물수량과 하고일수 간 상관관계를 검토하였다. 데이터세트는 총 582점으로 11개 지역으로 분류되며 혼파조합은 총 41가지였다. 변수에서 반응변수는 건물수량 이었으며 설명변수는 하고일수를 포함한 5가지의 기상변수를 이용하였다. 통계방법은 산점도, 기술통계량 및 상관분석을 거쳐 다중회귀분석을 통해 건물수량과 하고일수 간 상관관계를 확인하였다. 산점도 분석 결과 데이터세트를 지역별로 구분하였을 때 9개 지역 중 7개에서 건물수량과 하고일수 간 부(-)의 상관관계가 나타나 지역을 구분할 필요가 있었으며 대표본 근사이론을 적용할 수 있었던 5개 지역(화성, 수원, 대전, 시흥 및 광주)을 선정하였다. 5개 지역의 상관분석 결과 3개 지역(화성, 수원 및 시흥)에서, 다중회귀분석결과 화성에서 건물수량에 대한 하고일수의 효과가 부(-)로 나타났다. 따라서 혼파초지의 건물수량에 대한 하고일수의 상관관계는 지역별로 구분하였을 때 풀사료 생산이론과 일치하여 수량예측모형의 정밀도를 높일 수 있을 것으로 판단하였다.

한국 기후변동 패턴과 제조업 총요소생산성의 관계 분석 (Analysis on the Relationship Between Climatic Variation and Total Factor Productivity of Manufacture Industries of Korea)

  • 최영준;박현용
    • 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.277-297
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    • 2016
  • 본 연구는 기후변수들의 변동 특성이 한국 제조업의 총요소생산성에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 대표적인 기후변수인 기온, 강수량, 습도는 노동효율성에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상되므로 기온, 강수량, 습도의 변동특성이 한국 광역자치단체 제조업 총생산성에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 본 연구는 최근 기후변화로 기후 변동성이 높아지는 현상을 고려하기 위해 기후변수들의 평균값뿐만 아니라 최고값을 고려하여 분석하였다. 선형회귀분석 결과 선행연구 결과와 달리 기온과 습도가 제조업 생산성에 유의미한 영향을 미치지 않았다. 강수량의 평균적 증가는 부정적 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 패널자료를 분석한 결과에서는 기온, 강수량 모두 제조업 총생산에 유의미한 영향을 주지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 반면 평균 습도의 상승은 제조업 총생산을 증가시키는 것으로 나타났다. 실내 작업이 많은 제조업의 경우 기후자체의 변화보다도 기업체들의 적응능력이 생산성 변화와 직접적인 관련이 있다. 한국 제조업의 경우 기온이나 습도의 변화가 급격하게 이루어지지 않고 있고, 냉난방 시스템 구축 등을 통해 기후변화에 잘 적응하고 있는 것으로 분석된다.

전남지역의 기상요인이 과맥의 생육 및 수량구성 요소에 미치는 영향 (Studies on Some Weather Factors in Chon-nam District on Plant Growth and Yield Components of Naked Barley)

  • 이돈길
    • 한국작물학회지
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    • 제19권
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    • pp.100-131
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    • 1975
  • To obtain basic information on the improvement of naked barley production. and to clarify the relation-ships between yield or yield components and some meteorogical factors for yield prediction were the objectives of this study. The basic data used in this study were obtained from the experiments carried out for 16 years from 1958 to 1974 at the Chon-nam Provincial Office of Rural development. The simple correlation coefficients and multiple regression coefficients among the yield or yield components and meteorogical factors were calculated for the study. Days to emergence ranged from 8 to 26 days were reduced under conditions of mean minimum air temperature were high. The early emergence contributed to increasing plant height and number of tillers as well as to earlier maximum tillering and heading date. The plant height before wintering showed positive correlations with the hours of sunshine. On the other hand, plant height measured on march 1st and March 20th showed positive correlation with the amount of precipitation and negative correlation with the hours of sunshine during the wintering or regrowth stage. Kernel weights were affected by the hours of sunshine and rainfall after heading, and kernel weights were less variable when the hours of sunshine were relatively long and rainfalls in May were around 80 to 10mm. It seemed that grain yields were mostly affected by the climatic condition in March. showing the negative correlation between yield and mean air temperature, minimum air temperature during the period. In the other hand, the yield was shown to have positive correlation with hours of sunshine. Some yield prediction equations were obtained from the data of mean air temperature, mean minimum temperature and accumulated air temperature in March. Yield prediction was also possible by using multiple regression equations, which were derived from yield data and the number of spikes and plant height as observed at May 20th.

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목초 생산성과 액상분뇨 시용이 토양의 질소동태와 $NO_3$ 용탈에 미치는 영향 (The Effect of Cattle Slurry on N-Dynamics and $NO_3$ Leaching in Pasture Mixtures)

  • 류종원
    • 한국초지조사료학회지
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    • 제17권1호
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    • pp.43-50
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    • 1997
  • The aim of the study is to describe the fate and transformation of nitrogen in grassland ecosystems. Field experiments were conducted using sandyloam soil under variabling conditions: Zen, fertilization, reduced slurry application(l20kg N $ha^{-1}\;yr^{-1}$), usual sluny application (240 kg N $ha^{-1}\;yr^{-1}$).Soil water samples were gathered with 120cm ceramic cups with initial pressure of 0.5 bar. Samples were collected twice a month and analysed for NO, colormetrically. Percolation was calculated as the difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, and leaching as the product of percolation and nitrate content of the water h m the ceramic cups. The N$H_4$-N content in soil had no significant effect on slurry application, but high slurry application on grassland resulted in high N$O_3$-N content in soil. The NO, concentration in soil water was remarkably variable during the year. The average N$O_3$, concentration during experiment became the lowest(8.5 mg/e ) without slurry application and highest with 240kOa cattle sluny(25.3 mg4 ). For each of the three different amounts of cattle sluny applied (0, 120, and 240kOa), the amount of N$O_3$-N leached per year were 12, 23 and 29kg/ha respectively. On grassland under the climatic conditions of Allgau showed enormous nitrate leaching, which has a p a t potential of polluting the ground water. The high pool of mineral N in the soil are the source for N$O_3$ leaching. The leaching of N$O_3$ cannot be avoided completely, but minimized by optimizing N fertilization rate.

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The Effects of Transplanting Time and Meteorological Change to Variation of Phyllochron of Rice

  • Ku, Bon-Il;Choi, Min-Kyu;Kang, Shin-Ku;Lee, Kyung-Bo;Park, Hong-Kyu;Park, Tae-Seon;Ko, Jae-Kwon;Lee, Byun-Woo
    • 한국작물학회지
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    • 제55권3호
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    • pp.259-267
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    • 2010
  • This study was performed at Rice and Winter Cereal Crops Department of NICS during 2007 and 2008 to investigate the characteristics of rice leaf emergence and to obtain basic data which can be used for rice growth simulation model by which we can forecast rice growth stage and heading date accurately under different cultivars, transplanting date, and climatic conditions. To confirm leaf emergence rate according to rice maturing ecotype, we surveyed the leaf emergence rate and heading date of Unkwangbyeo, Hwayoungbyeo and Nampyeongbyeo which are early maturing, medium maturing and medium-late maturing cultivars, respectively, according to seedling raising duration and transplanting time. When seedling duration was 15 days, the growth duration between transplanting time and completion of flag leaf emergence on main culm were 51.5~78.3 days in Unkwangbyeo, 55.3~87.9 days in Hwayoungbyeo and 58.4~98.4 days in Nampyeongbyeo, respectively. When seedling duration was 30 days, they were 50.1~75.5 days in Unkwangbyeo, 52.4~84.7 days in Hwayoungbyeo and 56.4~93.8 days in Nampyeongbyeo, respectively. As transplanting time delayed, the emerged leaf number after transplanting decreased in all rice cultivars. The cumulative temperature between transplanting time to completion of flag leaf elongation on main culm were $1,281^{\circ}C{\sim}1,650^{\circ}C$ in Unkwangbyeo, $1,344^{\circ}C{\sim}1,891^{\circ}C$ in Hwayoungbyeo and $1,454^{\circ}C{\sim}2,173^{\circ}C$ in Nampyeongbyeo, respectively. Leaf emergence rate on main culm were precisely represented by equation, y = $y_0$ + a / [1 + exp( - (x - $x_0$) / b)]^c, when we used daily mean temperature as variable.

감천유역에 대한 강우양상 발생 영향인자의 규명 및 해석 (Identification of Factors Affecting the Occurrence of Temporal Patterns of Rainfall in Gamcheon Watershed)

  • 안기홍;조완희;한건연
    • 한국방재학회 논문집
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    • 제9권2호
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    • pp.77-85
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    • 2009
  • 우리나라는 기후의 계절적 변화가 뚜렷하며 지역별 시간에 따른 강우발생의 특성이 다양하다. 이러한 계절적, 지역적 강우특성의 반영은 수공구조물의 설계 및 안정성 평가 시 매우 중요하다. 이때 설계 강우량의 선정을 위해 적절한 강우 지속시간, 강우량, 그리고 시간에 따른 강우양상을 결정해야 한다. 일반적으로 수공구조물의 설계 및 신뢰도 평가 시 설계강우에 대한 시간적 강우양상의 결정은 매우 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 강우사상을 분리하여 각 강우사상의 무차원화를 실시하였고 이를 4가지 양상으로 구분하여 감천유역의 시간에 따른 강우발생에 영향을 주는 인자를 규명하고자 하였다. 이 분석은 강우관측소의 지리학적 위치, 강우량, 강우 지속시간, 계절, 태풍 및 장마, 건 우기에 관련된 시간에 따른 강우양상의 발생빈도의 상관관계를 통한 분할표에 의한 군집분석을 통해 실시되었다. 본 연구를 통해 해당 지역에 대한 시간에 따른 강우양상 발생의 영향인자를 파악할 수 있으며 이는 결국 수공구조물의 설계 및 평가뿐 만 아니라 유역의 홍수대책수립 시 매우 중요한 사전자료로 활용될 수 있다.

태양열 축열조가 없는 변유량 제어 방식의 지역난방용 태양열시스템 실증시험연구 (The Development of the Climatic Design Tool for Energy Efficient Building Design)

  • 백남춘;신우철;이진국;윤응상;윤석만
    • 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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    • 제28권5호
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    • pp.21-27
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    • 2008
  • In this study, the design of the solar heating system for district heating as well as it's operating characteristics and the performance analysis was carried out. This solar district heating system was composed of two different types of solar collector circuit, flat plate and vacuum tube solar collector, in a system. This system supply constant temperature of hot water without solar buffer tank. For this, the proportional(variable flow rate) control was used. The experimental facility for this study was used the Bundang district solar heating system which was installed in the end of 2006. The operating characteristics and behaviour of each collector circuits are investigated especially for the system design and control. The yearly solar thermal efficiency is 47.5% on the basis of aperture area and 39.8% on the basis of gross area of collector. As a result this solar heating system without solar buffer tank and with proportional controller was testified a very effective and simplified system for district heating. It varied especially depend on the weather condition like as solar radiation and ambient temperature.

쌀 품질의 연구현황, 문제점 및 방향 (Research Status and Prospects in Rice Quality)

  • 김광호;채제천;임무상;조수연;박래경
    • 한국작물학회지
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    • 제33권s01호
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 1988
  • Rice Quality is considered to the five catagories ; the nutritional value: the characteristics of cooking. eating and processing: grain size, shape and appearance : milling yields: and storage characteristics. Because most rice is processed and consumed in whole-kernel form. the cooking and eating quality is of important and the physical properties of the intact kernel such as size, shape and general appearance are of particular significance in determining marketing quality. Eating Quality which can be directly evaluated by consumer's panel test is so complicate and variable, and thus the objective and simplified method of evaluation is required of using appropriate instruments. Even though many researches have been done to evaluate the eating quality in various aspects such as the texture of cooked rice kernels, amylogram analysis of rice powder, amylose content. gelatinization temperature. moisture absorption of rice kernel, and cooking characteristics, none of them is satisfied for the evaluation of eating quality. The improving eating quality should be also considered to many cultural factors. such as varieties, climatic and soil conditions, cultural method, handling after harvest. milling and storage conditions. In Korea, many researches in grain size. shape and appearance, and eating quality have been done with the varietal improvement mainly by rice breeders, but no effective method of evaluation was established. A few research have been done in the relationship between rice quality and cultural factors. In the future, research in rice quality should emphasize to establish the standard evaluation method in the physicochemical properties of rice kernels for application of varietal selection. and to develop cultural practices for the preserving quality characteristics of the varieties.

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Backward estimation of precipitation from high spatial resolution SAR Sentinel-1 soil moisture: a case study for central South Korea

  • Nguyen, Hoang Hai;Han, Byungjoo;Oh, Yeontaek;Jung, Woosung;Shin, Daeyun
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2022년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.329-329
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    • 2022
  • Accurate characterization of terrestrial precipitation variation from high spatial resolution satellite sensors is beneficial for urban hydrology and microscale agriculture modeling, as well as natural disasters (e.g., urban flooding) early warning. However, the widely-used top-down approach for precipitation retrieval from microwave satellites is limited in several hydrological and agricultural applications due to their coarse spatial resolution. In this research, we aim to apply a novel bottom-up method, the parameterized SM2RAIN, where precipitation can be estimated from soil moisture signals based on an inversion of water balance model, to generate high spatial resolution terrestrial precipitation estimates at 0.01º grid (roughly 1-km) from the C-band SAR Sentinel-1. This product was then tested against a common reanalysis-based precipitation data and a domestic rain gauge network from the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA) over central South Korea, since a clear difference between climatic types (coasts and mainlands) and land covers (croplands and mixed forests) was reported in this area. The results showed that seasonal precipitation variability strongly affected the SM2RAIN performances, and the product derived from separated parameters (rainy and non-rainy seasons) outperformed that estimated considering the entire year. In addition, the product retrieved over the mainland mixed forest region showed slightly superior performance compared to that over the coastal cropland region, suggesting that the 6-day time resolution of S1 data is suitable for capturing the stable precipitation pattern in mainland mixed forests rather than the highly variable precipitation pattern in coastal croplands. Future studies suggest comparing this product to the traditional top-down products, as well as evaluating their integration for enhancing high spatial resolution precipitation over entire South Korea.

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