• Title/Summary/Keyword: climate simulation

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Evaluation of Flood Regulation Service of Urban Ecosystem Using InVEST mode (InVEST 모형을 이용한 도시 생태계의 홍수 조절서비스 평가)

  • Lee, Tae-ho;Cheon, Gum-sung;Kwon, Hyuk-soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.51-64
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    • 2022
  • Along with the urbanization, the risk of urban flooding due to climate change is increasing. Flood regulation, one of the ecosystem services, is implemented in the different level of function of flood risk mitigation by the type of ecosystem such as forests, arable land, wetlands etc. Land use changes due to development pressures have become an important factor in increasing the vulnerability by flash flood. This study has conducted evaluating the urban flood regulation service using InVEST UFRM(Urban Flood Risk Model). As a result of the simulation, the potential water retention by ecosystem type in the event of a flash flood according to RCP 4.5(10 year frequency) scenario was 1,569,611 tons in urbanized/dried areas, 907,706 tons in agricultural areas, 1,496,105 tons in forested areas, 831,705 tons in grasslands, 1,021,742 tons in wetlands, and 206,709 tons in bare areas, the water bodies was estimated to be 38,087 tons. In the case of more severe 100-year rainfall, 1,808,376 tons in urbanized/dried areas, 1,172,505 tons in agricultural areas, 2,076,019 tons in forests, 1,021,742 tons in grasslands, 47,603 tons in wetlands, 238,363 tons in bare lands, and 52,985 tons in water bodies. The potential economic damage from flood runoff(100 years frequency) is 122,512,524 thousand won in residential areas, 512,382,410 thousand won in commercial areas, 50,414,646 thousand won in industrial areas, 2,927,508 thousand won in Infrastructure(road), 8,907 thousand won in agriculture, Total of assuming a runoff of 50 mm(100 year frequency) was estimated at 688,245,997 thousand won. In a conclusion. these results provided an overview of ecosystem functions and services in terms of flood control, and indirectly demonstrated the possibility of using the model as a tool for policy decision-making. Nevertheless, in future research, related issues such as application of models according to various spatial scales, verification of difference in result values due to differences in spatial resolution, improvement of CN(Curved Number) suitable for the research site conditions based on actual data, and development of flood damage factors suitable for domestic condition for the calculation of economic loss.

A Quantitative Study of the Effects of a Price Collar in the Korea Emissions Trading System on Emissions and Costs (배출권거래제 가격상하한제가 배출량 및 감축비용에 미치는 영향에 대한 정량적 연구)

  • Bae, Kyungeun;Yoo, Taejoung;Ahn, Young-Hwan
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.261-290
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    • 2022
  • Although market stabilization measures have been triggered in the K-ETS, carbon price is still under uncertainty. Considering Korea's 2030 enhanced reduction target announced in October 2021, it is crucial to have practical stabilization measures to appropriately deal with price uncertainty. This study examines the quantitative effects of a price collar, which is considered as a means of alleviating price uncertainty, on expected cumulative emissions and abatement costs. There are three main scenarios: carbon tax, emissions trading system, and emissions trading system with a price collar. Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to reflect uncertainty in emission. There are several results as follows: 1) In a price collar, domestic emission target is likely to be achieved with a lower expected abatement cost than other scenarios. In addition, there is a small amount of excess emissions in this research and it would be not critical(0.1% excess than target); 2) Prohibiting banking increases the expected abatement cost. This is because firms can not intertemporally reallocate allowances to match the firm's optimal emissions path; 3) With the adoption of a price collar, government's net revenue can be positive even if the government's purchase volume of emissions allowances is more than sales volume. This is because the government sells them at price ceiling and purchases them at price floor.

An Analysis of Changes in Power Generation and Final Energy Consumption in Provinces to Achieve the Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) (국가 온실가스 감축목표(NDC) 상향안 달성을 위한 17개 광역시도별 발전 및 최종에너지 소비 변화 분석)

  • Minyoung Roh;Seungho Jeon;Muntae Kim;Suduk Kim
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.865-885
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    • 2022
  • Korean government updated her Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2021 and announced the target and various measures for reductions. Among the many issues, final energy demand and renewable energy power mix for 17 provinces to achieve the target are being analyzed using GCAM-Korea. Simulation results show that final energy demand of 2030 is approximated at the similar level to that of 2018. This is being enabled by the conservation of coal with higher electrification especially in industry sector. Higher power demand with lower coal consumption in final energy consumption is shown to be provided by 33.1% of renewable, 24.6% of gas, and 18.0% of nuclear power generation in 2030. Meanwhile, the share of coal-fired power generation is expected to be reduced to 12.8%. Major future power provider becomes Gyeongbuk (Nuclear), Gyeonggi (Gas), Jeonnam (Nuclear, Gas) and Gangwon (PV, Wind), compared to one of current major power provider Chungnam (Coal). This analysis is expected to provide a useful insight toward the national and provincial energy and climate change policy.

A Study on Variation of Economic Value of Overseas Carbon Reduction Projects with Risk Factors (해외 탄소저감 사업의 위험요소를 고려한 사업 경제성 변동 분석)

  • Park, Jongyul;Choa, Sunghoon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.45-52
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    • 2023
  • Recently, as climate change caused by greenhouse gases is intensifying, the international community has committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The purpose of this study is to present the methodology and major considerations for investment judgment. Two actual cases of overseas projects were selected as study subjects. As an analysis method, the major risk factors were defined as a probability distribution, and the NPV was stochastically estimated using the Monte Carlo simulation method. In addition, assuming a policy change, the range of NPV change was analyzed. As a result, the average NPV of project A was lowered by 19%, and the probability of showing a negative NPV was 12.2%. The average value of project B was lowered by 12.5%. Considering the policy change, project A can obtain economic benefits only when it obtains 72.9% or more of the total amount of carbon credits generated, and project B is economically feasible when it acquires 49.5% or more. As a result, the average value of project A is lower than the net present value under basic assumptions, so caution is needed in investment decisions depending on changes in major risk factors. Additionally, considering policy changes, the carbon credit distribution ratio should be differentially applied depending on the project size, and this was presented as a specific figure.

Classification of Wind Corridor for Utilizing Heat Deficit of the Cold-Air Layer - A Case Study of the Daegu Metropolitan City - (냉각에너지를 활용한 바람길 구성요소 분류 - 대구광역시를 사례로 -)

  • Sung, Uk-Je;Eum, Jeong-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.51 no.5
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    • pp.70-83
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    • 2023
  • Recently, the Korea Forest Service has implemented a planning project about wind corridor forests as a response measure to climate change. Based on this, research on wind corridors has been underway. For the creation of wind corridor forests, a preliminary evaluation of the wind corridor function is necessary. However, currently, there is no evaluation index to directly evaluate and spatially distinguish the types of wind corridors, and analysis is being performed based on indirect indicators. Therefore, this study proposed a method to evaluate and classify wind corridors by utilizing heat deficit analysis as an evaluation index for cold air generation. Heat deficit was analyzed using a cold air analysis model called Kaltluftabflussmodell_21 (KLAM_21). According to the results of the simulation analysis, the wind path was functionally classified. The top 5% were classified as cold-air generating Areas (CGA), and the bottom 5% as cold-air vulnerable Areas (CVA). In addition, the cold-air flowing Areas (CFA) were classified by identifying the flow of cold air moving from the cold air generation area. It is expected that the methodology of this study can be utilized as an evaluation method for the effectiveness of wind corridors. It is also anticipated to be used as an evaluation index to be presented in the selection of wind corridor forest sites.

Applying deep learning based super-resolution technique for high-resolution urban flood analysis (고해상도 도시 침수 해석을 위한 딥러닝 기반 초해상화 기술 적용)

  • Choi, Hyeonjin;Lee, Songhee;Woo, Hyuna;Kim, Minyoung;Noh, Seong Jin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.10
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    • pp.641-653
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    • 2023
  • As climate change and urbanization are causing unprecedented natural disasters in urban areas, it is crucial to have urban flood predictions with high fidelity and accuracy. However, conventional physically- and deep learning-based urban flood modeling methods have limitations that require a lot of computer resources or data for high-resolution flooding analysis. In this study, we propose and implement a method for improving the spatial resolution of urban flood analysis using a deep learning based super-resolution technique. The proposed approach converts low-resolution flood maps by physically based modeling into the high-resolution using a super-resolution deep learning model trained by high-resolution modeling data. When applied to two cases of retrospective flood analysis at part of City of Portland, Oregon, U.S., the results of the 4-m resolution physical simulation were successfully converted into 1-m resolution flood maps through super-resolution. High structural similarity between the super-solution image and the high-resolution original was found. The results show promising image quality loss within an acceptable limit of 22.80 dB (PSNR) and 0.73 (SSIM). The proposed super-resolution method can provide efficient model training with a limited number of flood scenarios, significantly reducing data acquisition efforts and computational costs.

A Study on the Performance Analysis of AIoT High-Efficiency Streetlamp for Carbon Emissions (탄소배출권용 AIoT 고효율 가로등 성능분석 연구)

  • Seung-Ho Park;Seong-Uk Shin;Kyung-Sunl Yoo
    • Journal of Advanced Technology Convergence
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.13-19
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    • 2023
  • Following the signing of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 2015), the world is expanding greenhouse gas reduction activities through comprehensive participation that includes not only developed countries but also developing countries. Major countries around the world are placing high expectations on the effectiveness of total carbon emissions regulation through the carbon emissions market. However, in order to obtain carbon credits, third-party verification is required based on quantitative carbon reduction data. Accordingly, in this paper, we developed an AIoT high-efficiency street light for carbon emissions and conducted a performance analysis study to measure the luminous efficiency of the lighting fixture. To obtain carbon emissions rights, we used high-efficiency LED PKG, developed our own high-voltage PFC, and developed high-efficiency lighting fixtures capable of communication. For communication, the 2.4GHz LoRa method was adopted between the lighting fixture and the gateway. Lens design was conducted through simulation of Korea Expressway Corporation's standard streetlight types A, B, and C. The performance of the streetlight was verified as being more efficient than other existing products through the measurement of luminous efficiency by an accredited rating agency, and it is expected that carbon emissions rights will be obtained by reducing electrical energy through this.

Analysis of the effect of improving human thermal environment by road directions and street tree planting patterns in summer (여름철 도로 방향과 가로수 식재 방식에 의한 인간 열환경 개선효과 분석)

  • Jeonghyeon Moon;Yuri Choi;Eunja Choi;Jueun Yang;Sookuk Park
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2024
  • This study aimed to identify the optimal street tree planting method to improve the summer thermal environment in Seoul, Republic of Korea. The effects of road direction and street tree planting patterns on urban thermal environments using ENVI-met simulations were analyzed. The 68 scenarios were analyzed based on four road directions and 17 planting patterns. The results showed that tree planting had a reducing air temperature, mean radiant temperature, human thermal sensation (PET and UTCI). The most effective planting pattern among all scenarios was low tree height (6m), wide crown width (9m), high leaf area index (3.0), and narrow planting interval (8m). The largest improvement in the thermal environment was the northern sidewalk of the east-west road. Since this study used computer simulations, the difference from real urban spaces should be considered, and further research is needed through field measurement and consideration of more variables.

Comparative analysis of ONE parameter hydrological model on domestic watershed (ONE 모형의 국내유역 적용 및 비교 분석)

  • Ko, Heemin;An, Hyunuk;Noh, Jaekyung;Lee, Seungjun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.1
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    • pp.59-72
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    • 2024
  • Agricultural reservoirs supply water for various purposes such as irrigation, maintenance, and living. Since agricultural reservoirs respond sensitively to seasonal and climate changes, it is essential to estimate supply and inflow for efficient operation, and water management should be done based on these data. However, in the case of agricultural reservoirs, the measurement of supply and inflow is relatively insufficient compared to multi-purpose dams, and inflow-supply analysis in agricultural reservoirs through water balance analysis is necessary for efficient water management. Therefore, rainfall-runoff analysis models such as ONE model and Tank model have been developed and used for reservoir water balance analysis, but the applicability analysis for ungauged watersheds is insufficient. The ONE model is designed for daily runoff calculation, and the model has one parameter, which is advantageous for calibration and ungauged watershed analysis. In this study, the water balance was analyzed through the ONE model and the Tank model for 15 watersheds upstream of dams, and R2 and NSE were used to quantitatively compare the performance of the two models. The simulation results show that the ONE model is suitable for predicting the inflow of agricultural reservoirs with the ungauged watershed

Analysis of The Human Thermal Environment in Jeju's Public Parking Lots in Summer and Suggestion for Its Modification (제주시 공영 주차장 내 여름철 인간 열환경 분석 및 저감 방안 제안)

  • Choi, Yuri;Park, Sookuk
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.52 no.3
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    • pp.18-32
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    • 2024
  • This study aims to analyze the summer human thermal environment in Jeju City's outdoor parking lots by measuring microclimate data and comparing pavement and vegetation albedoes and elements through computer simulations. In measured cases, results due to albedo showed no significance, but there was a significant difference between sunny and shaded areas by trees. The sunny area had a PET (physiological equivalent temperature) in the 'very hot' level, while the shaded area exhibited a 2-step lower 'warm' level. UTCI (universal thermal climate index) also showed that the sunny area was in the 'very strong heat stress' level, whereas the shaded area was 1-step lower in the 'strong heat stress' level, confirming the role of trees in reducing incoming solar radiant energy. Simulation results, using the measured albedoes, closely resembled the measured results. Regarding vegetation, scenarios with a wide canopy, high leaf density, and narrow planting spacing were effective in mitigating the human thermal environment, and the differences due to tree height varied across scenarios. The scenario with the lowest PET value was H9W9L3D8 (tree height 9m, canopy width 9m, leaf area index 3.0, planting spacing 8m), indicating a 0.7-step decrease compared to the current landscaping scenario. Thus, it was confirmed that, among landscaping elements, trees have a significant impact on the summer human thermal environment compared to ground pavement.