• Title/Summary/Keyword: climate prediction

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New record and prediction of the potential distribution of the invasive alien species Brassica tournefortii (Brassicaceae) in Korea (국내 침입외래식물 사막갓(Brassica tournefortii; Brassicaceae)의 보고 및 잠재 분포 예측)

  • KANG, Eun Su;KIM, Han Gyeol;NAM, Myoung Ja;CHOI, Mi Jung;SON, Dong Chan
    • Korean Journal of Plant Taxonomy
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    • v.52 no.3
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    • pp.184-195
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    • 2022
  • The invasive alien species Brassica tournefortii Gouan (Brassicaceae) is herein reported for the first time in Korea, from Gunsan-si, Gochang-gun, and Jeju-si. Brassica tournefortii can easily be distinguished from B. juncea and B. napus by its dense stiff hairs at the base of the stem and leaves, basally and distally branched stems, partially dehiscent fruits, and seeds that become mucilaginous in the presence of moisture. Although some taxonomists have classified this species as belonging to Coincya Rouy based on its fruit and seed characteristics, the existence of one vein on the fruit valves and our maximum likelihood analysis using internal transcribed spacer sequences placed it in Brassica. Distribution data, photographs, and a description of B. tournefortii are presented herein. Moreover, potential changes in the distribution of B. tournefortii were predicted under different climate scenarios, but our analysis showed that the probability of the spreading of this species is low. Nevertheless, continuous monitoring is necessary for an accurate assessment. The results of the present study can be used to conduct an invasion risk assessment and can assist with the effective management of this invasive alien species.

Characterizing Distribution Patterns of Major Aquatic Insect Assemblages (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) Based on Community Temperature Index at Headwater Streams (군집온도지수를 활용한 상류하천 주요 수서곤충의 군집 분포특성 분석: 하루살이목, 강도래목, 날도래목을 중심으로)

  • Dong-Won Shim;Da-Yeong Lee;Dae-Seong Lee;Young-Seuk Park
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.305-319
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    • 2022
  • The community temperature index (CTI) reflects the temperature and environmental preferences of the community. We investigated the distribution patterns of major aquatic insect assemblages (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera; EPT) based on CTI in streams of South Korea. We selected unpolluted 151 study sites at upper streams(less than 3rd) with less than 1.5 mg L-1 of biochemical oxygen demand. Study sites were clustered into six groups based on the similarities of their EPT composition. All three orders showed a continuous decrease in the number of species as CTI increased, especially in Plecoptera. In addition, the functional feeding groups were also significantly changed according the CTI changes. Temperature tolerance range of each group's indicator species varied according to the CTI of the group. Finally, changes of CTI reflected differences of EPT assemblages according to the differences of environmental condition including temperature. Therefore, CTI can be applied to the evaluation and preservation of stream ecosystems and prediction of community changes due to climate change.

Assessment of the long-term hydrologic impacts on the ungaged Tumen River basin by using satellite and global LSM based on data and SWAT model (위성 및 광역지표모형 기반 자료와 SWAT 모형을 이용한 미계측 두만강 유역의 장기 수문영향 평가)

  • Cho, Younghyun;Ahn, Yoon Ho;Park, Sang Young;Park, Jin Hyeog
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.94-94
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    • 2020
  • 최근 정부의 신북방정책 추진에 따라 수자원분야에서는 동북아지역 국제 공유하천을 중심의 물 정보 및 연구협력 기회 확보와 지정학적 특성을 고려한 지역 현안해결 중심의 연구가 재조명 되고 있다. 두만강은 이러한 동북아의 중심에 위치하고 있으며, 중국, 북한, 러이사의 국경을 따라 흐르며 지역 수자원의 대부분을 공급하는 국제하천이다. 또한, 지난 2018년 5월에는 하구유역이 람사르(Ramsar) 습지로 승인됨에 따라 철새 등을 포함한 생태가치의 중요성도 크게 증가하였다. 하지만 이 지역은 유역의 지정학적 민감성과 접근이 제한된 관측 정보들로 인해 그 수자원·환경 효용성을 정확하게 파악할 수 없을 뿐만 아니라, 최근 기후변화에 따른 영향으로 홍수, 가뭄 등의 수재해와 수질오염 등의 문제가 발생하고 있어 가용한 기술기반의 직·간접적 접근을 통한 장기수문 및 환경변화 등에 대한 분석과 관리방안 수립 등의 연구가 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 미계측 두만강 유역을 대상으로 우선, 가용한 위성자료 및 광역지표모형(MERRA-2) 기반 NASA POWER(Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource) 수문기상 자료와 SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) 모형을 활용하여 장기 수문영향을 평가하고자 한다. SWAT 모형은 전 지구적으로 활용 가능한 격자 해상도 약 30m의 위성기반 수치표고모형(DEM), 광역 토양도, 지역 토지이용도 자료를 활용하여 두만강 유역을 전체 19개 소유역 및 18개 하도, 138개 HRUs의 수문분석 단위로 구축하였으며, 모의는 미국 NOAA NCDC(National Climate Data Center) 및 중국 CMDC(China Meteorological Data Service Center)의 주요 관측지점에서 선별한 총 13개소의 위치에 대해 재분석된 기후/기상자료들(NASA POWER 강수, 기온, 풍속, 상대습도 및 일사량)을 적용, 1990년에서 2019년까지의 30개년도 연속자료를 구축활용 하였다. 한편, 모형의 검·보정은 앞서 언급한 관측 자료의 부재로 과거 문헌 등을 통해 파악할 수 있는 연 단위 수자원 총량 등을 활용해 진행코자한다. 아울러, 향후는 최근 활용 가능한 장기 위성관측 강수량을 적용, 재분석 자료 결과와의 비교를 통해 상호 분석 오류를 줄여나갈 수 있을 것으로도 판단된다.

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A Study on the AI Analysis of Crop Area Data in Aquaponics (아쿠아포닉스 환경에서의 작물 면적 데이터 AI 분석 연구)

  • Eun-Young Choi;Hyoun-Sup Lee;Joo Hyoung Cha;Lim-Gun Lee
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.861-866
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    • 2023
  • Unlike conventional smart farms that require chemical fertilizers and large spaces, aquaponics farming, which utilizes the symbiotic relationship between aquatic organisms and crops to grow crops even in abnormal environments such as environmental pollution and climate change, is being actively researched. Different crops require different environments and nutrients for growth, so it is necessary to configure the ratio of aquatic organisms optimized for crop growth. This study proposes a method to measure the degree of growth based on area and volume using image processing techniques in an aquaponics environment. Tilapia, carp, catfish, and lettuce crops, which are aquatic organisms that produce organic matter through excrement, were tested in an aquaponics environment. Through 2D and 3D image analysis of lettuce and real-time data analysis, the growth degree was evaluated using the area and volume information of lettuce. The results of the experiment proved that it is possible to manage cultivation by utilizing the area and volume information of lettuce. It is expected that it will be possible to provide production prediction services to farmers by utilizing aquatic life and growth information. It will also be a starting point for solving problems in the changing agricultural environment.

Real-Time Flood Forecasting by Using a Measured Data Based Nomograph for Small Streams (계측자료 기반 Nomograph를 이용한 실시간 소하천 홍수량 산정 연구)

  • Tae Sung Cheong;Changwon Choi;Sung Je Yei;Kang Min Koo
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.116-124
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    • 2023
  • As the flood damage on small streams increase due to the increase in frequency of extreme climate events, the need to measure hydraulic data of them has increased for disaster risk management. National Disaster Management Institute, Ministry of Interior and Safety develops CADMT, a CCTV-based automatic discharge measurement technology, and operates pilot small streams to verify its performance and develop disaster risk management technology. The research selects two small streams such as the Neungmac and the Jungsunpil streams to develop the Nomograph by using the 4-Parameter Logistic method using only the observed rainfall data from the Automatic Weather System operated by the Korea Meteorological Agency closest to the small streams and discharge data collected by using the CADMT. To evaluate developed Nomograph, the research forecasts floods discharges in each small stream and compares the result with the observed discharges. As a result of the evaluations, the forecasted value is found to represent the observed value well, so if more accurate observed data are collected and the Nomograph based on it is developed in the future, the high-accuracy flood prediction and warning will be possible.

Development of a UAV-Based Urban Thermal Comfort Assessment Method (UAV 기반 도시 공간의 열 쾌적성 평가기법 개발)

  • Seounghyeon Kim;Bonggeun Song;Kyunghun Park
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.61-77
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    • 2024
  • The purpose of this study was to develop a method for rapidly diagnosing urban thermal comfort using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) based data. The research was conducted at Changwon National University's College of Engineering site and Yongji Park, both located in Changwon, Gyeongsangnam-do. Baseline data were collected using field measurements and UAVs. Specifically, the study calculated field measurement-based thermal comfort indices PET and UTCI, and used UAVs to create and analyze vegetation index (NDVI), sky view factor (SVF), and land surface temperature (LST) images. The results showed that UAV-predicted PET and UTCI had high correlations of 0.662 and 0.721, respectively, within a 1% significance level. The explanatory power of the prediction model was 43.8% for PET and 52.6% for UTCI, with RMSE values of 6.32℃ for PET and 3.16℃ for UTCI, indicating that UTCI is more suitable for UAV-based thermal comfort evaluation. The developed method offers significant time-saving advantages over traditional approaches and can be utilized for real-time urban thermal comfort assessment and mitigation planning

Implementation of an Automated Agricultural Frost Observation System (AAFOS) (농업서리 자동관측 시스템(AAFOS)의 구현)

  • Kyu Rang Kim;Eunsu Jo;Myeong Su Ko;Jung Hyuk Kang;Yunjae Hwang;Yong Hee Lee
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.63-74
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    • 2024
  • In agriculture, frost can be devastating, which is why observation and forecasting are so important. According to a recent report analyzing frost observation data from the Korea Meteorological Administration, despite global warming due to climate change, the late frost date in spring has not been accelerated, and the frequency of frost has not decreased. Therefore, it is important to automate and continuously operate frost observation in risk areas to prevent agricultural frost damage. In the existing frost observation using leaf wetness sensors, there is a problem that the reference voltage value fluctuates over a long period of time due to contamination of the observation sensor or changes in the humidity of the surrounding environment. In this study, a datalogger program was implemented to automatically solve these problems. The established frost observation system can stably and automatically accumulate time-resolved observation data over a long period of time. This data can be utilized in the future for the development of frost diagnosis models using machine learning methods and the production of frost occurrence prediction information for surrounding areas.

Development of a Prediction Model for Personal Thermal Sensation on Logistic Regression Considering Urban Spatial Factors (도시공간적 요인을 고려한 로지스틱 회귀분석 기반 체감더위 예측 모형 개발)

  • Uk-Je SUNG;Hyeong-Min PARK;Jae-Yeon LIM;Yu-Jin SEO;Jeong-Min SON;Jin-Kyu MIN;Jeong-Hee EUM
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.81-98
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    • 2024
  • This study analyzed the impact of urban spatial factors on the thermal environment. The personal thermal sensation was set as the unit of thermal environment to analyze its correlation with environmental factors. To collect data on personal thermal sensation, Living Lab was applied, allowing citizens to record their thermal sensation and measure the temperature. Based on the input points of the collected personal thermal sensation, nearby urban spatial elements were collected to build a dataset for statistical analysis. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to analyze the impact of each factor on personal thermal sensation. The analysis results indicate that the temperature is influenced by the surrounding spatial environment, showing a negative correlation with building height, greenery rate, and road rate, and a positive correlation with sky view factor. Furthermore, the road rate, sky view factor, and greenery rate, in that order, had a strong impact on perceived heat. The results of this study are expected to be utilized as basic data for assessing the thermal environment to prepare local thermal environment measures in response to climate change.

Quantification of Temperature Effects on Flowering Date Determination in Niitaka Pear (신고 배의 개화기 결정에 미치는 온도영향의 정량화)

  • Kim, Soo-Ock;Kim, Jin-Hee;Chung, U-Ran;Kim, Seung-Heui;Park, Gun-Hwan;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.61-71
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    • 2009
  • Most deciduous trees in temperate zone are dormant during the winter to overcome cold and dry environment. Dormancy of deciduous fruit trees is usually separated into a period of rest by physiological conditions and a period of quiescence by unfavorable environmental conditions. Inconsistent and fewer budburst in pear orchards has been reported recently in South Korea and Japan and the insufficient chilling due to warmer winters is suspected to play a role. An accurate prediction of the flowering time under the climate change scenarios may be critical to the planning of adaptation strategy for the pear industry in the future. However, existing methods for the prediction of budburst depend on the spring temperature, neglecting potential effects of warmer winters on the rest release and subsequent budburst. We adapted a dormancy clock model which uses daily temperature data to calculate the thermal time for simulating winter phenology of deciduous trees and tested the feasibility of this model in predicting budburst and flowering of Niitaka pear, one of the favorite cultivars in Korea. In order to derive the model parameter values suitable for Niitaka, the mean time for the rest release was estimated by observing budburst of field collected twigs in a controlled environment. The thermal time (in chill-days) was calculated and accumulated by a predefined temperature range from fall harvest until the chilling requirement (maximum accumulated chill-days in a negative number) is met. The chilling requirement is then offset by anti-chill days (in positive numbers) until the accumulated chill-days become null, which is assumed to be the budburst date. Calculations were repeated with arbitrary threshold temperatures from $4^{\circ}C$ to $10^{\circ}C$ (at an interval of 0.1), and a set of threshold temperature and chilling requirement was selected when the estimated budburst date coincides with the field observation. A heating requirement (in accumulation of anti-chill days since budburst) for flowering was also determined from an experiment based on historical observations. The dormancy clock model optimized with the selected parameter values was used to predict flowering of Niitaka pear grown in Suwon for the recent 9 years. The predicted dates for full bloom were within the range of the observed dates with 1.9 days of root mean square error.

Prediction of Radish Growth as Affected by Nitrogen Fertilization for Spring Production (무의 질소 시비량에 따른 생육량 추정 모델식 개발)

  • Lee, Sang Gyu;Yeo, Kyung-Hwan;Jang, Yoon Ah;Lee, Jun Gu;Nam, Chun Woo;Lee, Hee Ju;Choi, Chang Sun;Um, Young Chul
    • Horticultural Science & Technology
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.531-537
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    • 2013
  • The average annual and winter ambient air temperatures in Korea have risen by 0.7 and $1.4^{\circ}C$, respectively, during the last 30 years. Radish (Raphanus sativus), one of the most important cool season crops, may well be used as a model to study the influence of climatic change on plant growth, because it is more adversely affected by elevated temperatures than warm season crops. This study examined the influence of transplanting time, nitrogen fertilizer level, and climate parameters, including air temperature and growing degree days (GDD), on the performance of a radish cultivar 'Mansahyungtong' to estimate crop growth during the spring growing season. The radish seeds were sown from April 24 to May 22, 2012, at internals of 14 days and cultivated with 3 levels of nitrogen fertilization. The data from plants sown on April 24 and May 8, 2012 were used for the prediction of plant growth as affected by planting date and nitrogen fertilization for spring production. In our study, plant fresh weight was higher when the radish seeds were sown on $24^{th}$ of April than on $8^{th}$ and $22^{nd}$ of May. The growth model was described as a logarithmic function using GDD according to the nitrogen fertilization levels: for 0.5N, root dry matter = 84.66/(1+exp (-(GDD - 790.7)/122.3)) ($r^2$ = 0.92), for 1.0N, root dry matter = 100.6/(1 + exp (-(GDD - 824.8)/112.8)) ($r^2$ = 0.92), and for 2.0N, root dry matter = 117.7/(1+exp (-(GDD - 877.7)/148.5)) ($r^2$ = 0.94). Although the model slightly tended to overestimate the dry mass per plant, the estimated and observed root dry matter and top dry matter data showed a reasonable good fit with 1.12 ($R^2$ = 0.979) and 1.05 ($R^2$ = 0.991), respectively. Results of this study suggest that the GDD values can be used as a good indicator in predicting the root growth of radish.