• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.34-47
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• 2010

Long-range transport of air pollutants was simulated using Comprehensive Acid Deposition Model (CADM) and Yonsei University-Sulfuric Acid Deposition Model (YU-SADM). For the simulation, weather patterns that represent the four seasons were derived through a clustering analysis with 5-years of meteorological data. The simulation result showed that in spring, influenced by strong low pressure from China, air pollutants of moved to the Korean Peninsula. In summer, humid air moved into the Korean Peninsula across the Yellow Sea while the north pacific high pressure extended, making the concentration of air pollutants lower than that in the other seasons. In autumn, air pollutants were transported by the northwest wind caused by the movement of high pressure over the Yellow Sea, while in winter air pollutants were influenced by northwest winds from continental highs. The amount of air pollutants in each season showed that high amount of pollutants were transported in winter due to the strong northwest wind. The in-flows were 3 to 8 times higher than those of the other seasons, and out-flows were about as twice as high. The amount of wet deposition in summer and autumn increased significantly compared to the amount in the other seasons due to the increase of rainfall. Source-receptor relationship analysis for sulfur showed that 70 to 91 precent of the total deposition came from the self-contribution by the Korean Peninsula. In winter, contribution from China was about 25 percent of the total deposition which was higher amount than any other season.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.18-18
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• 2011

Climate change is impacting and will increasingly impact both the quantity and quality of the world's water resources in a variety of ways. In some areas warming climate results in increased rainfall, surface runoff, and groundwater recharge while in others there may be declines in all of these. Water quality is described by a number of variables. Some are directly impacted by climate change. Temperature is an obvious example. Notably, increased atmospheric concentrations of $CO_2$ triggering climate change increase the $CO_2$ dissolving into water. This has manifold consequences including decreased pH and increased alkalinity, with resultant increases in dissolved concentrations of the minerals in geologic materials contacted by such water. Climate change is also expected to increase the number and intensity of extreme climate events, with related hydrologic changes. A simple framework has been developed in New Zealand for assessing and predicting climate change impacts on water resources. Assessment is largely based on trend analysis of historic data using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall method. Trend analysis requires long-term, regular monitoring data for both climate and hydrologic variables. Data quality is of primary importance and data gaps must be avoided. Quantitative prediction of climate change impacts on the quantity of water resources can be accomplished by computer modelling. This requires the serial coupling of various models. For example, regional downscaling of results from a world-wide general circulation model (GCM) can be used to forecast temperatures and precipitation for various emissions scenarios in specific catchments. Mechanistic or artificial intelligence modelling can then be used with these inputs to simulate climate change impacts over time, such as changes in streamflow, groundwater-surface water interactions, and changes in groundwater levels. The Waimea Plains catchment in New Zealand was selected for a test application of these assessment and prediction methods. This catchment is predicted to undergo relatively minor impacts due to climate change. All available climate and hydrologic databases were obtained and analyzed. These included climate (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation and sunshine hours, evapotranspiration, humidity, and cloud cover) and hydrologic (streamflow and quality and groundwater levels and quality) records. Results varied but there were indications of atmospheric temperature increasing, rainfall decreasing, streamflow decreasing, and groundwater level decreasing trends. Artificial intelligence modelling was applied to predict water usage, rainfall recharge of groundwater, and upstream flow for two regionally downscaled climate change scenarios (A1B and A2). The AI methods used were multi-layer perceptron (MLP) with extended Kalman filtering (EKF), genetic programming (GP), and a dynamic neuro-fuzzy local modelling system (DNFLMS), respectively. These were then used as inputs to a mechanistic groundwater flow-surface water interaction model (MODFLOW). A DNFLMS was also used to simulate downstream flow and groundwater levels for comparison with MODFLOW outputs. MODFLOW and DNFLMS outputs were consistent. They indicated declines in streamflow on the order of 21 to 23% for MODFLOW and DNFLMS (A1B scenario), respectively, and 27% in both cases for the A2 scenario under severe drought conditions by 2058-2059, with little if any change in groundwater levels.

• Atmosphere
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.123-138
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• 2024

Using 18 multi-model-based a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios, future changes in temperature and warmth index on the Korean Peninsula in the 21st century (2011~2100) were analyzed. In the analysis of the current climate (1981~2010), the ensemble averaged model results were found to reproduce the observed average values and spatial patterns of temperature and warmth index similarly well. In the future climate projections, temperature and warmth index are expected to rise in the 21st century compared to the current climate. They go further into the future and the higher carbon scenario (SSP5-8.5), the larger the increase. In the 21st century, in the low-carbon scenario (SSP1-2.6), temperature and warmth index are expected to rise by about 2.5℃ and 24.6%, respectively, compared to the present, while in the high-carbon scenario, they are expected to rise by about 6.2℃ and 63.9%, respectively. It was analyzed that reducing carbon emissions could contribute to reducing the increase in temperature and warmth index. The increase in the warmth index due to climate change can be positively analyzed to indicate that the effective heat required for plant growth on the Korean Peninsula will be stably secured. However, it is necessary to comprehensively consider negative aspects such as changes in growth conditions during the plant growth period, increase in extreme weather such as abnormally high temperatures, and decrease in plant diversity. This study can be used as basic scientific information for adapting to climate change and preparing response measures.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.134-153
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• 2015

When making urban planning, it is important to understand climate effect caused by urban structural changes. Seoul city applies UPIS(Urban Plan Information System) which provides information on urban planning scenario. Technology for analyzing climate effect resulted from urban planning needs to developed by linking urban planning scenario provided by UPIS and climate analysis model, CAS(Climate Analysis Seoul). CAS develops for analyzing urban climate conditions to provide realistic information considering local air temperature and wind flows. Quantitative analyses conducted by CAS for the production, transportation, and stagnation of cold air, wind flow and thermal conditions by incorporating GIS analysis on land cover and elevation and meteorological analysis from MetPhoMod(Meteorology and atmospheric Photochemistry Meso-scale model). In order to reflect land cover and elevation of the latest information, CAS used to highly accurate raster data (1m) sourced from LiDAR survey and KOMPSAT-2(KOrea Multi-Purpose SATellite) satellite image(4m). For more realistic representation of land surface characteristic, DSM(Digital Surface Model) and DTM(Digital Terrain Model) data used as an input data for CFD(Computational Fluid Dynamics) model. Eight inflow directions considered to investigate the change of flow pattern, wind speed according to reconstruction and change of thermal environment by connecting green area formation. Also, MetPhoMod in CAS data used to consider realistic weather condition. The result show that wind corridors change due to reconstruction. As a whole surface temperature around target area decreases due to connecting green area formation. CFD model coupled with CAS is possible to evaluate the wind corridor and heat environment before/after reconstruction and connecting green area formation. In This study, analysis of climate impact before and after created the green area, which is part of 'Connecting green network across the north and south in Seoul' plan, one of the '2020 Seoul master plan'.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.9
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• pp.825-838
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• 2014

The stationary Markov chain model has been widely used as a daily rainfall simulation model. A main assumption of the stationary Markov model is that statistical characteristics do not change over time and do not have any trends. In other words, the stationary Markov chain model for daily rainfall simulation essentially can not incorporate any changes in mean or variance into the model. Here we develop a Non-stationary hidden Markov chain model (NHMM) based stochastic downscaling scheme for simulating the daily rainfall sequences, using general circulation models (GCMs) as inputs. It has been acknowledged that GCMs perform well with respect to annual and seasonal variation at large spatial scale and they stand as one of the primary sources for obtaining forecasts. The proposed model is applied to daily rainfall series at three stations in Nakdong watershed. The model showed a better performance in reproducing most of the statistics associated with daily and seasonal rainfall. In particular, the proposed model provided a significant improvement in reproducing the extremes. It was confirmed that the proposed model could be used as a downscaling model for the purpose of generating plausible daily rainfall scenarios if elaborate GCM forecasts can used as a predictor. Also, the proposed NHMM model can be applied to climate change studies if GCM based climate change scenarios are used as inputs.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.398-403
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• 2023

Process-based K-cabbage model is based on physiological processes such as photosynthesis and phenology, making it possible to predict crop growth under different climate conditions that have never been experienced before. Current first-stage process-based models can be used to assess climate impact through yield prediction based on climate change scenarios, but no comparison has been performed between big data obtained from the main production area and model prediction so far. The aim of this study was to find out the direction of model improvement when using the current model for yield prediction. For this purpose, model performance evaluation was conducted based on data collected from farmers growing 'Chungwang' cabbage in Taebaek and Samcheok, the main producing areas of Chinese cabbage in highland region. The farms surveyed in this study had different cultivation methods in terms of planting date and soil water and nutrient management. The results showed that the potential biomass estimated using the K-cabbage model exceeded the observed values in all cases. Although predictions and observations at the time of harvest did not show a complete positive correlation due to limitations caused by the use of fresh weight in the model evaluation process (R²=0.74, RMSE=866.4), when fitting the model based on the values 2 weeks before harvest, the growth suitability index was different for each farm. These results are suggested to be due to differences in soil properties and management practices between farms. Therefore, to predict attainable yields taking into account differences in soil and management practices between farms, it is necessary to integrate dynamic soil nutrient and moisture modules into crop models, rather than using arbitrary growth suitability indices in current K-cabbage model.

• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.19-27
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• 2009

In this study, Urban Climate Simulation was performed by 3-Dimensional Urban Canopy Model. The characteristics of urban climate were analyzed combining artificial land coverage, building size, heat production from the air conditioning and topographic conditions as physical variables which affects urban climate characteristics. The results are as follows. (1) The aspects of the urban climatal change is derived to be related to the combination of the building coverage ratio, building height and shading area. According to the building height, the highest temperature was increased by $2.1^{\circ}C$ from 2-story to 5-story building and the absolute humidity by 2.1g/kg maximum and the wind velocity by 1.0m/s was decreased from 2-story to 20-story building. (2) Whole heat generation was influenced by the convective sensible heat at the lower building height and by the artificial heat generation at the higher one over 20-story building influence to some extent of the building coverage ratio. The effect of the altitude is not more considerable than the other variables as below $1^{\circ}C$ of the air temperature. In the last, deriving the combination of building coverage and building height is needed to obtain effectiveness of the urban built environment planning at the point of the urban climate. These simulation results need to be constructed as DB which shows urban quantitative thermal characters by the urban physical structure. These can be quantitative base for suggesting combinations of the building and urban planning features at the point of the desirable urban thermal environment as well as analyzing urban climate phenomenon.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.61 no.6
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• pp.81-92
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• 2019

The objective of this study is to evaluate hydrologic impacts of climate change according to downscaling methods using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model at watershed scale. We used the APCC Integrated Modeling Solution (AIMS) for assessing various General Circulation Models (GCMs) and downscaling methods. AIMS provides three downscaling methods: 1) BCSA (Bias-Correction & Stochastic Analogue), 2) Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM), 3) SDQDM (Spatial Disaggregation and Quantile Delta Mapping). To assess future hydrologic responses of climate change, we adopted three GCMs: CESM1-BGC for flood, MIROC-ESM for drought, and HadGEM2-AO for Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) national standard scenario. Combined nine climate change scenarios were assessed by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). SWAT model was established at the Mankyung watershed and the applicability assessment was completed by performing calibration and validation from 2008 to 2017. Historical reproducibility results from BCSA, SQM, SDQDM of three GCMs show different patterns on annual precipitation, maximum temperature, and four selected ETCCDI. BCSA and SQM showed high historical reproducibility compared with the observed data, however SDQDM was underestimated, possibly due to the uncertainty of future climate data. Future hydrologic responses presented greater variability in SQM and relatively less variability in BCSA and SDQDM. This study implies that reasonable selection of GCMs and downscaling methods considering research objective is important and necessary to minimize uncertainty of climate change scenarios.

• Atmosphere
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.75-86
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• 2019

In this paper, we introduce a novel Climate & Environment Database System (CEDS). The CEDS is developed by the National Institute of Meteorological Sciences (NIMS) to provide easy and efficient user interfaces and storage management of climate model data, so improves work efficiency. In uploading the data/files, the CEDS provides an option to automatically operate the international standard data conversion (CMORization) and the quality assurance (QA) processes for submission of CMIP6 variable data. This option increases the system performance, removes the user mistakes, and increases the level of reliability as it eliminates user operation for the CMORization and QA processes. The uploaded raw files are saved in a NAS storage and the Cassandra database stores the metadata that will be used for efficient data access and storage management. The Metadata is automatically generated when uploading a file, or by the user inputs. With the Metadata, the CEDS supports effective storage management by categorizing data/files. This effective storage management allows easy and fast data access with a higher level of data reliability when requesting with the simple search words by a novice. Moreover, the CEDS supports parallel and distributed computing for increasing overall system performance and balancing the load. This supports the high level of availability as multiple users can use it at the same time with fast system-response. Additionally, it deduplicates redundant data and reduces storage space.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.45 no.4
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• pp.313-327
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• 2021

Background: Citizen science is becoming a mainstream approach of baseline data collection to monitor biodiversity and climate change. Dragonflies (Odonata) have been ranked as the highest priority group in biodiversity monitoring for global warming. Ischnura senegalensis Rambur has been designated a biological indicator of climate change and is being monitored by the citizen science project "Korean Biodiversity Observation Network." This study has been performed to understand changes in the distribution range of I. senegalensis in response to climate change using citizen science data in South Korea. Results: We constructed a dataset of 397 distribution records for I. senegalensis, ranging from 1980 to 2020. The number of records sharply increased over time and space, and in particular, citizen science monitoring data accounted for the greatest proportion (58.7%) and covered the widest geographical range. This species was only distributed in the southern provinces until 2010 but was recorded in the higher latitudes such as Gangwon-do, Incheon, Seoul, and Gyeonggi-do (max. Paju-si, 37.70° latitude) by 2020. A species distribution model showed that the annual mean temperature (Bio1; 63.2%) and the maximum temperature of the warmest month (Bio5; 16.7%) were the most critical factors influencing its distribution. Future climate change scenarios have predicted an increase in suitable habitats for this species. Conclusions: This study is the first to show the northward expansion in the distribution range of I. senegalensis in response to climate warming in South Korea over the past 40 years. In particular, citizen science was crucial in supplying critical baseline data to detect the distribution change toward higher latitudes. Our results provide new insights on the value of citizen science as a tool for detecting the impact of climate change on ecosystems in South Korea.