• Title/Summary/Keyword: climate model

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The Effect of Individual and Team Characteristics on Knowledge Creation : An Analysis by Hierarchical Linear Model (HLM) (개인과 집단의 특성이 지식창출에 미치는 영향)

  • Kang, So-Ra;Kim, Min-Sun
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.19-38
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    • 2010
  • This paper investigates the effect of stress on knowledge creation. The goal stress of resource inadequacy and job stress had negative influences on knowledge creation. However, the cohesion and mastery climate of team had positive influence on knowledge creation. Therefore this paper verifies the moderate role of the cohesion and mastery climate of team on the relationship between stress and knowledge creation. The model developed was tested using data collected from knowledge based industry with 375 members in 69 teams in 12 different firms. A Hierarchical Linear Model (HLM) was used to test the hypotheses generated from the model. Results show that job stress had a negative influence on knowledge creation as we expected but the goal stress didn't. The mastery climate of team affected knowledge creation positively and moderated the relationship between the goal stress and knowledge creation. Furthermore, the team cohesion had a positive influence on knowledge creation. The study provided some implications that practitioners should consider the stress when they design jobs for team members and suggest them the way to manage their job stress when they work.

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D-PSA-K: A Model for Estimating the Accumulated Potential Damage on Kiwifruit Canes Caused by Bacterial Canker during the Growing and Overwintering Seasons

  • Do, Ki Seok;Chung, Bong Nam;Joa, Jae Ho
    • The Plant Pathology Journal
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.537-544
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    • 2016
  • We developed a model, termed D-PSA-K, to estimate the accumulated potential damage on kiwifruit canes caused by bacterial canker during the growing and overwintering seasons. The model consisted of three parts including estimation of the amount of necrotic lesion in a non-frozen environment, the rate of necrosis increase in a freezing environment during the overwintering season, and the amount of necrotic lesion on kiwifruit canes caused by bacterial canker during the overwintering and growing seasons. We evaluated the model's accuracy by comparing the observed maximum disease incidence on kiwifruit canes against the damage estimated using weather and disease data collected at Wando during 1994-1997 and at Seogwipo during 2014-2015. For the Hayward cultivar, D-PSA-K estimated the accumulated damage as approximately nine times the observed maximum disease incidence. For the Hort16A cultivar, the accumulated damage estimated by D-PSA-K was high when the observed disease incidence was high. D-PSA-K could assist kiwifruit growers in selecting optimal sites for kiwifruit cultivation and establishing improved production plans by predicting the loss in kiwifruit production due to bacterial canker, using past weather or future climate change data.

Response of Terrestrial Carbon Cycle: Climate Variability in CarbonTracker and CMIP5 Earth System Models (기후 인자와 관련된 육상 탄소 순환 변동: 탄소추적시스템과 CMIP5 모델 결과 비교)

  • Sun, Minah;Kim, Youngmi;Lee, Johan;Boo, Kyoung-On;Byun, Young-Hwa;Cho, Chun-Ho
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.301-316
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    • 2017
  • This study analyzes the spatio-temporal variability of terrestrial carbon flux and the response of land carbon sink with climate factors to improve of understanding of the variability of land-atmosphere carbon exchanges accurately. The coupled carbon-climate models of CMIP5 (the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) and CT (CarbonTracker) are used. The CMIP5 multi-model ensemble mean overestimated the NEP (Net Ecosystem Production) compares to CT and GCP (Global Carbon Project) estimates over the period 2001~2012. Variation of NEP in the CMIP5 ensemble mean is similar to CT, but a couple of models which have fire module without nitrogen cycle module strongly simulate carbon sink in the Africa, Southeast Asia, South America, and some areas of the United States. Result in comparison with climate factor, the NEP is highly affected by temperature and solar radiation in both of CT and CMIP5. Partial correlation between temperature and NEP indicates that the temperature is affecting NEP positively at higher than mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, but opposite correlation represents at other latitudes in CT and most CMIP5 models. The CMIP5 models except for few models show positive correlation with precipitation at $30^{\circ}N{\sim}90^{\circ}N$, but higher percentage of negative correlation represented at $60^{\circ}S{\sim}30^{\circ}N$ compare to CT. For each season, the correlation between temperature (solar radiation) and NEP in the CMIP5 ensemble mean is similar to that of CT, but overestimated.

Derivation of Design Flood Using Multisite Rainfall Simulation Technique and Continuous Rainfall-Runoff Model

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.540-544
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    • 2009
  • Hydrologic pattern under climate change has been paid attention to as one of the most important issues in hydrologic science group. Rainfall and runoff is a key element in the Earth's hydrological cycle, and associated with many different aspects such as water supply, flood prevention and river restoration. In this regard, a main objective of this study is to evaluate design flood using simulation techniques which can consider a full spectrum of uncertainty. Here we utilize a weather state based stochastic multivariate model as conditional probability model for simulating the rainfall field. A major premise of this study is that large scale climatic patterns are a major driver of such persistent year to year changes in rainfall probabilities. Uncertainty analysis in estimating design flood is inevitably needed to examine reliability for the estimated results. With regard to this point, this study applies a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme to the NWS-PC rainfall-runoff model that has been widely used, and a case study is performed in Soyang Dam watershed in Korea. A comprehensive discussion on design flood under climate change is provided.

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Deep Dependence in Deep Learning models of Streamflow and Climate Indices

  • Lee, Taesam;Ouarda, Taha;Kim, Jongsuk;Seong, Kiyoung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.97-97
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    • 2021
  • Hydrometeorological variables contain highly complex system for temporal revolution and it is quite challenging to illustrate the system with a temporal linear and nonlinear models. In recent years, deep learning algorithms have been developed and a number of studies has focused to model the complex hydrometeorological system with deep learning models. In the current study, we investigated the temporal structure inside deep learning models for the hydrometeorological variables such as streamflow and climate indices. The results present a quite striking such that each hidden unit of the deep learning model presents different dependence structure and when the number of hidden units meet a proper boundary, it reaches the best model performance. This indicates that the deep dependence structure of deep learning models can be used to model selection or investigating whether the constructed model setup present efficient or not.

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Preliminary Result of Uncertainty on Variation of Flowering Date of Kiwifruit: Case Study of Kiwifruit Growing Area of Jeonlanam-do (기후변화에 따른 국내 키위 품종 '해금'의 개화시기 변동과 전망에 대한 불확실성: 전남 키위 주산지역을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Kwang-Hyung;Jeong, Yeo Min;Cho, Youn-Sup;Chung, Uran
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.42-54
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    • 2016
  • It is highly anticipated that warming temperature resulting from global climate change will affect the phenological pattern of kiwifruit, which has been commercially grown in Korea since the early 1980s. Here, we present the potential impacts of climate change on the variations of flowering day of a gold kiwifruit cultivar, Haegeum, in the Jeonnam Province, Korea. By running six global climate models (GCM), the results from this study emphasize the uncertainty in climate change scenarios. To predict the flowering day of kiwifruit, we obtained three parameters of the 'Chill-day' model for the simulation of Haegeum: $6.3^{\circ}C$ for the base temperature (Tb), 102.5 for chill requirement (Rc), and 575 for heat requirement (Rh). Two separate validations of the resulting 'Chill-day' model were conducted. First, direct comparisons were made between the observed flowering days collected from 25 kiwifruit orchards for two years (2014-15) and the simulated flowering days from the 'Chill-day' model using weather data from four weather stations near the 25 orchards. The estimation error between the observed and simulated flowering days was 5.2 days. Second, the model was simulated using temperature data extracted, for the 25 orchards, from a high-resolution digital temperature map, resulting in the error of 3.4 days. Using the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios from six GCMs for the period of 2021-40, the future flowering days were simulated with the 'Chill-day' model. The predicted flowering days of Haegeum in Jeonnam were advanced more than 10 days compared to the present ones from multi-model ensemble, while some individual models resulted in quite different magnitudes of impacts, indicating the multi-model ensemble accounts for uncertainty better than individual climate models. In addition, the current flowering period of Haegeum in Jeonnam Province was predicted to expand northward, reaching over Jeonbuk and Chungnam Provinces. This preliminary result will provide a basis for the local impact assessment of climate change as more phenology models are developed for other fruit trees.

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Pinus densiflora and Analyzing the Relationship with Environmental Variable Using MaxEnt Model (MaxEnt 모형을 이용한 소나무 잠재분포 예측 및 환경변수와 관계 분석)

  • Cho, NangHyun;Kim, Eun-Sook;Lee, Bora;Lim, Jong-Hwan;Kang, Sinkyu
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.47-56
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    • 2020
  • Decline of pine forests happens in Korea due to various disturbances such as insect pests, forest fires and extreme climate, which may further continue with ongoing climate change. For conserving and reestablishing pine forests, understanding climate-induced future shifts of pine tree distribution is a critical concern. This study predicts future geographical distribution of Pinus densiflora, using Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt). Input data of the model are locations of pine tree stands and their environmental variables such as climate were prepared for the model inputs. Alternative future projections for P. densiflora distribution were conducted with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. As results, the future distribution of P. densiflora steadily decreased under both scenarios. In the case of RCP 8.5, the areal reductions amounted to 11.1% and 18.7% in 2050s and 2070s, respectively. In 2070s, P. densiflora mainly remained in Kangwon and Gyeongsang Provinces. Changes in temperature seasonality and warming winter temperature contributed primarily for the decline of P. densiflora., in which altitude also exerted a critical role in determining its future distribution geographic vulnerability. The results of this study highlighted the temporal and spatial contexts of P. densiflora decline in Korea that provides useful ecological information for developing sound management practices of pine forests.

A Study of Future Residential Land Use Change considering Climate Change using Land Use Equilibrium Model in Jeju (토지이용균형 모델을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 주거용 토지이용변화 - 제주 지역을 대상으로 -)

  • Yoo, Somin;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Yamagata, Yoshiki;Kim, Jiyoung;Kim, Moon-Il;Lim, Chul-Hee
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2015
  • Climate change lead to environmental pollution caused by the radical economic growth and development of industry. The amount of damage from abnormal climate is increasing rapidly for this reason in Korea. In particular, the cities is a lot of carbon emission quantity from the radical growth. Thus the government present "low carbon green growth" for eco-friendly city planning. As one of the important factors effecting climate change, active researches on land use change is performed. In this study, we knew land use change of each scenarios using land use equilibrium model which is kind of predictive model of land use in Japan. First, we selected study area to Jeju lsland. For this study, indicators for input data were selected and spatial data for input data were established using GIS program. Second, we established future scenarios based in 2040s. There are 2 future scenarios: dispersion scenario, compact scenario. Third, we compared with residential area of current and residential area for future scenarios. Results showed that residential area of the difference between current and dispersion scenario were 1,230 ha and residential area of the difference between current and compact scenario were 1,515 ha. Finally, for comparing carbon dioxide absorption volume between dispersion scenarios and compact scenarios, we calculated carbon dioxide absorption volume according to residential area decreased of each future scenarios. Results showed that carbon dioxide absorption volume in dispersion scenario was 477,878 ton and carbon dioxide absorption volume in compact scenario was 588,606 ton. Therefore, the study showed that land use equilibrium model is expected to put to use for future enhancement in creating data for climate change stabilization. And it is also expected to be utilized for city planning research in Korea.

Past and Future Temperature and Precipitation Changes over Korea using MM5 Model

  • Oh, Jai-Ho;Min, Young-Mi;Kim, Tae-Kook;Woo, Su-Min;Kwon, Won-Tae;Baek, Hee-Jeong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Quaternary Association Conference
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    • 2004.06a
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    • pp.29-29
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    • 2004
  • Long term observational analysis by climatologists has confirmedthat the global warming is no longer a topic of debate among scientists andpolicy makers. According to the report of IPCC-2001 (Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change), the global mean surface air temperature is increasinggradually. The reported increase of mean temperature is by 0.6 degree in the end of twentieth century. This could represent severe threat for propertylosses especially due to increase in the number of extreme weather arising out of global warming. period of model integration from 2001 to 2100 using output of ECHAM4/HOPE-G of Max Planet Institute of Meteorology (MPI) for IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios). The main results of this study indicate increase of surface air temperature by 6.20C and precipitation by 2.6% over Korea in the end of 21st century. Simulation results also show that there is increase in daily maximum and minimum temperatures while decrease in diurnal temperature range (DTR). DTR changes are diminished mainly due to relatively rapid increase of daily minimum temperature than that of daily maximumtemperature. It has been observed that increase in precipitation amount anddecrease in the number of rainy days lead to increase of pre precipitationintensity.

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Application of the Neural Networks Models for the Daily Precipitation Downscaling (일 강우량 Downscaling을 위한 신경망모형의 적용)

  • Kim, Seong-Won;Kyoung, Min-Soo;Kim, Byung-Sik;Kim, Hyung-Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.125-128
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    • 2009
  • The research of climate change impact in hydrometeorology often relies on climate change information. In this paper, neural networks models such as generalized regression neural networks model (GRNNM) and multilayer perceptron neural networks model (MLP-NNM) are proposed statistical downscaling of the daily precipitation. The input nodes of neural networks models consist of the atmospheric meteorology and the atmospheric pressure data for 4 grid points including $127.5^{\circ}E/37.5^{\circ}N$, $127.5^{\circ}E/35^{\circ}N$, $125^{\circ}E/37.5^{\circ}N$ and $125^{\circ}E/35^{\circ}N$, respectively. The output node of neural networks models consist of the daily precipitation data for Seoul station. For the performances of the neural networks models, they are composed of training and test performances, respectively. From this research, we evaluate the impact of GRNNM and MLP-NNM performances for the downscaling of the daily precipitation data. We should, therefore, construct the credible daily precipitation data for Seoul station using statistical downscaling method. The proposed methods can be applied to future climate prediction/projection using the various climate change scenarios such as GCMs and RCMs.

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