• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• /
• v.17 no.4
• /
• pp.399-410
• /
• 2015

The objective of our study was to predict future cultivation areas for walnut trees (Juglans sinensis), using the cultivation suitability map provided from Korea Forest Service and MaxEnt modelling under future climate conditions. The climate conditions in 2050s and 2070s were computed using the Regional Climate Prediction (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios with the HadGEM2-AO model. As a result, compared to the present area, the cultivation area of the western Korea including Chungcheongnamdo, Jeollabuk-do, Jeollanam-do decreased on a national scale under RCP 4.5, and those of Gyeongsangbukdo and part of Gyeongsangnam-do decreased under RCP 8.5. However, Gangwon-do which is located in higher altitude over 600 meters than other regions showed increases in cultivation areas of 18.3% under RCP 4.5 and of 56.6% under RCP 8.5 by 2070s. The predicted map showed large regional variations in the cultivation areas with climate change. From the analysis of current top ranking areas, the cultivation areas in Gimcheon-si and Yeongdong-gun dramatically decreased by 2070s under RCP 4.5 and 8.5; that of Gongju-si decreased more under RCP 4.5; and those of Muju-gun and Cheonan-si sustained the areas by 2070s under both scenarios. The results from this study can be helpful for providing a guide for minimizing the loss of walnut production and proactively improving productivity and quality of walnuts with regard to unavoidable climate change in South Korea.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
• /
• v.18 no.2
• /
• pp.79-88
• /
• 2015

Preparations need to be made for Korean pine(Pinus koraiensis) in anticipation of climate change because Korean pine is an endemic species of South Korea and the source of timber and pine nut. Therefore, climate change adaptation policy has been established to conduct an impact assessment on the distribution of Korean pine. Our objective was to predict the distribution of Korean pine while taking into account uncertainty and afforestation conditions. We used the 5th forest types map, a forest site map and BIOCLIM variables. The climate scenarios are RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for uncertainty and the climate models are 5 regional climate models (HadGEM3RA, RegCM4, SNURCM, GRIMs, WRF). The base period for this study is 1971 to 2000. The target periods are the mid-21st century (2021-2050) and the end of the 21st century (2071-2100). This study used the MaxEnt model, and 50% of the presences were randomly set as training data. The remaining 50% were used as test data, and 10 cross-validated replicates were run. The selected variables were the annual mean temperature (Bio1), the precipitation of the wettest month (Bio13) and the precipitation of the driest month (Bio14). The test data's ROC curve of Korean pine was 0.689. The distribution of Korean pine in the mid-21st century decreased from 11.9% to 37.8% on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The area of Korean pine at an artificial plantation occupied from 32.1% to 45.4% on both RCPs. The areas at the end of the 21st century declined by 53.9% on RCP 4.5 and by 86.0% on RCP 8.5. The area of Korean pine at an artificial plantation occupied 23.8% on RCP 4.5 and 7.2% on RCP 8.5. Private forests showed more of a decrease than national forests for all subsequent periods. Our results may contribute to the establishment of climate change adaptation policies for considering various adaptation options.

• Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
• /
• v.25 no.1
• /
• pp.3-8
• /
• 2017

In this study future wind resource maps have been produced under climate change scenario using ensemble regional climate model weather research and forecasting(WRF) for the period from 2045 to 2054(mid 21st century). Then various spatiotemporal analysis has been conducted in terms of monthly and diurnal. As a result, monthly variation(monsoon circulation) was larger than diurnal variation(land-sea circulation) throughout the South Korea. Strong wind area with high wind power energy was varied on months and regions. During whole years, strong wind with high wind resource was pronounced at cold(warm) months in particular Gangwon mountainous and coastal areas(southwestern coastal area) driven by strong northwesterly(southwesterly). Projected strong and weak wind were presented in January and September, respectively. Diurnal variation were large over inland and mountainous area while coastal area were small. This new monthly and diurnal variation would be useful to high resource area analysis and long-term operation of wind power according to wind variability in future.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
• /
• v.23 no.1
• /
• pp.92-105
• /
• 2018

In this study, the projected land use area in 2030 for major crop production was estimated in Jeju Island using land cover map, and corresponding agricultural water demand for 40 sub-regions was quantitatively assessed using the future climate change scenario (RCP 4.5). Estimated basic unit of water demand in 2030 was the highest in the western region, and the lowest in the eastern region. Monthly maximum agricultural water demand analysis revealed that water demand in August of 2030 substantially increased, suggesting the climate of Jeju Island is changing to a subtropical climate in 2030. Agricultural water demand for sub-region in 2030 was calculated by multiplying the target area of the water supply excluding the area not in use in winter season by the basic unit of water demand, and the maximum and minimum values were estimated to be $306,626m^3/day$ at Seogwipo downtown region and $77,967m^3/day$ at Hallim region, respectively. Consequently, total agricultural water demand in Jeju Island in 2030 was estimated to be $1,848,010m^3/day$.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
• /
• v.57 no.2
• /
• pp.15-26
• /
• 2015

The purpose of this paper is to develop a software tool, PGA-CC (Projection of hydrology via Grid-based Assessment for Climate Change) to evaluate the present hydrologic cycle and the future watershed hydrology by climate change. PGA-CC is composed of grid-based input data pre-processing module, hydrologic cycle calculation module, output analysis module, and output data post-processing module. The grid-based hydrological model was coded by Fortran and compiled using Compaq Fortran 6.6c, and the Graphic User Interface was developed by using Visual C#. Other most elements viz. Table and Graph, and GIS functions were implemented by MapWindow. The applicability of PGA-CC was tested by assessing the future hydrology of South Korea by HadCM3 SRES B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. For the whole country, the tool successfully assessed the future hydrological components including input data and evapotranspiration, soil moisture, surface runoff, lateral flow, base flow etc. From the spatial outputs, we could understand the hydrological changes both seasonally and regionally.

• KCID journal
• /
• v.21 no.1
• /
• pp.89-98
• /
• 2014

This study is to evaluate the future potential impact of climate change on soil erosion loss in a metropolitan area using Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation(RUSLE) with land use information of the Ministry of Environment and rainfall data for present and future years(30-year period). The spatial distribution map of vulnerable areas to soil erosion was prepared to provide the basis information for soil conservation and long-term land use planning. For the future climate change scenario, the MIROC3.2 HiRes A1B($CO_2720ppm$ level 2100) was downscaled for 2040-2069(2040s) and 2070-2099(2080s) using the stochastic weather generator(LARS-WG) with average rainfall data during past 30 years(1980-2010, baseline period). By applying the climate prediction to the RUSLE, the soil erosion loss was evaluated. From the results, the soil erosion loss showed a general tendency to increase with rainfall intensity. The soil loss increased up to 13.7%(55.7 ton/ha/yr) in the 2040s and 29.8%(63.6 ton/ha/yr) in the 2080s based on the baseline data(49.0 ton/ha/yr).

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
• /
• v.56 no.4
• /
• pp.330-338
• /
• 2023

To investigate the impact of forestry projects on the carbon stocks of forests, we estimated the carbon stock change of above-ground and soil before and after forestry projects using forest type maps, forestry project information, and soil information. First, we selected six map sheet with large areas and declining age class based on forest type map information. Then, we collected data such as forest type maps, growth coefficients, soil organic matter content, and soil bulk density of the estimated areas to calculate forest carbon storage. As a result, forest carbon stocks decreased by about 34.1~70.0% after forestry projects at all sites. In addition, compared to reference studies, domestic forest soils store less carbon than the above-ground, so it is judged that domestic forest soils have great potential to store more carbon and strategies to increase carbon storage are needed. It was estimated that the amount of carbon stored before forestry projects is about 1.5 times more than after forestry projects. The study estimated that it takes about 27 years for forests to recover to their pre-thinning carbon stocks following forestry projects. Since it takes a long time for forests to recover to their original carbon stocks once their carbon stocks are reduced by physical damage, it is necessary to plan to preserve them as much as possible, especially for highly conservative forests, so that they can maintain their carbon storage function.

• 한국공간정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2005.11a
• /
• pp.225-229
• /
• 2005

The objective of this study is to evaluate snowmelt impact on watershed hydrology using climate change scenarios on Soyanggang-dam and Chungju-dam watershed. SLURP model was used for analyzing hydrological changes based on climate changes. The results (in years 2050 and 2100) of climate changes scenarios was CCCma CGCM2 of SRES suggested by IPCC and the snow cover map and snow depth was derived from NOAA/AVHRR images. The model was calibrated and verified for dam inflow data from 1998 to 2001.

• Steel and Composite Structures
• /
• v.47 no.4
• /
• pp.451-454
• /
• 2023

Landslides are one of the natural disasters that cause a lot of financial and human losses every year It will be all over the world. China, especially. The Mainland China can be divided into 12 zones, including 4 high susceptibility zones, 7 medium susceptibility zones and 1 low susceptibility zone, according to landslide proneness. Climate and physiography are always at risk of landslides. The purpose of this research is to prepare a landslide hazard map using the Hierarchical Analysis Process method. In the GIS environment, it is in a part of China watershed. In order to prepare a landslide hazard map, first with Field studies, a distribution map of landslides in the area and then a map of factors affecting landslides were prepared. In the next stage, the factors are prioritized using expert opinion and hierarchical analysis process and nine factors including height, slope, slope direction, geological units, land use, distance from Waterway, distance from the road, distance from the fault and rainfall map were selected as effective factors. Then Landslide risk zoning in the region was done using the hierarchical analysis process model. The results showed that the three factors of geological units, distance from the road and slope are the most important have had an effect on the occurrence of landslides in the region, while the two factors of fault and rainfall have the least effect The landslide occurred in the region.

• The Korean Journal of Quaternary Research
• /
• v.22 no.2
• /
• pp.6-11
• /
• 2008

Vegetation change reconstructed by pollen analysis is effective to clarify natural conditions such as climate and soil as well as intensity of human activity. Pollen analysis in Korea is difficult to obtain peaty soil sedimented by low relief geomorphollogically and formation age is usually confined to obtain information during young Holocene as well as little absolute age data. Isopollen map was constructed in order to analyze the change of vegetation environment time-spatially during Holocene based on the 30 data with age dated from 78 results from pollen analysis in Korea. The indicatives for vegetation environment were the main trees in Korea such as Alnus, Pinus, Quercus and AP/NAP during the periods of 6,000 y.BP, 4,000 y.BP, 3,000 y.BP, 2,000 y.BP, 1,000 y.BP. As a result, the regional time-spatial patterns of vegetation distribution appeared clearly on the isopollen map. The dominant vegetation stage was repeated in the different pattern e.g. the dominance between Alnus and Quercus at West Coast and between Pinus and Quercus at East Coast competitively.