• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.229-255
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• 2017

This study empirically estimates the impacts of climate change on forest composition in Korea using a fractional data regression model, and forecasts the change in forest composition in the 2040s and 2090s based on the IPCC climate change scenarios. Unlike the forest science studies that incorporate mostly only ecological variables as the determinants of forest composition, we take into account regional level socio-economic and forest management variables as well. Our estimation results found that not only environmental factors but also socio-economic and forest management related factors strongly affect the composition of Korean forest. Based on the estimation results and IPCC scenarios on climate change, we predict that the share of currently dominant coniferous forest will decline in the future under all scenarios. About 10% of total forest area is likely to be converted from coniferous forest into broadleaved forest until 2090s under the scenario RCP 8.5. It is also predicted that there will be a substantial regional variation in the effects of climate change on forest composition, and the coniferous forests in the inland regions will decline more dramatically.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.296-306
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• 2016

There is a growing interest in establishing a regional climate change adaptation policy as the climate change impact in the region and local scale increases. This study focused on the analysis of 32 regions on its characteristics of local climate change adaptation plans. First, statistic program R was used for conducting cluster analysis based on the frequency and budgets of adaptation plan. Further, we analyzed damage frequency from newspapers regarding climate change impacts in eight categories which were caused by extreme weather events on 2,565 cases for 24 years. Lastly, the characteristics of climate change adaptation plan was compared with damage frequency patterns for evaluating the adequacy of climate change adaptation plan on each cluster. Four different clusters were created by cluster analysis. Most clusters clearly have their own characteristics on certain sectors. There was a high frequency of damage in 'disaster' and 'health' sectors. Climate change adaptation plan and budget also invested a lot on those sectors. However, when comparing the relative rate among regional governments, there was a difference between types of damage and climate change adaptation plan. We assumed that the difference could come from that each region established their adaptation plans based on not only the frequency of damage, but vulnerability assessment, and expert opinions as well. The result of study could contribute to policy making of climate change adaptation plan.

• New & Renewable Energy
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.145-174
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• 2024

Addressing climate change necessitates evidence-based policies grounded in science. The use of forest biomass for energy production is based on a broad scientific consensus at the international level. However, some environmental groups in South Korea are opposing this system of energy production. Through this study, the authors aim to reduce unnecessary confusion and foster an atmosphere conducive to meaningful evidence-based policies. We have classified the issue into eight categories: biological carbon cycle, carbon debt, nature-based solutions, air emissions, cascading principles and sustainability certification, forest environmental impacts, climate change litigation, and the behavior of environmental groups and public perception. Consequently, the following key points were derived: (1) the actions of some environmental groups seem to follow a similar pattern to denialist behavior that denies climate change and climate science; (2) the quality of evidence for campaigns that oppose the use of forest biomass for energy production is low, with a tendency to overgeneralize information, high uncertainty, and difficulty in finding new claims.; (3) most of the public believes that forest biomass energy is necessary, and the governments of major countries are aware of its importance. Significantly, Forest biomass for energy is based on an overwhelming level of scientific consensus recognized internationally.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.62-70
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• 2012

Rainfall, on Jeju Island varies regionally in relation to Mt. Halla with higher rainfall within southern area and lower in western area, and its variability is expected to expand according to the climate change scenario. Non-parametric trend analysis for rainfall, using both historic (1971-2010) and simulated (2011-2100) data assuming the A1B emissions scenario, shows regionally increasing trends with time. In perspective of agricultural land use, area for market garden including various crop types with high water demand is increasing over the Island, especially in the western area with lower rainfall compared to southern area. On the other hand, area for fruit including mandarin and kiwi with low water demand is widely distributed over southern and northern part having higher rainfall. These regional disparity of water demand/supply may be more affected by extreme events such as drought and heavy rainfall that has not yet been considered. Therefore, it is necessary to make policies for water resource management considering both demand and supply in different regions with climate change impacts over Jeju Island.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.26 no.5
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• pp.431-438
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• 2023

The information about battlefield environment changes and operational impacts on Korean Peninsula due to climate change is essential for national defense. In this study, the future impact of four ground operations was analyzed by using the national climate change standard scenario based on the IPCC 6^th report. As a result, it was analyzed that the number of operational-limited days for ambush and airlift operations would decrease, making the operational environment favorable. However, the operational environment unfavorable as the number of operational-limited days for crossing and reconnaissance operations increase, but the number is not large so much.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.32-32
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• 2023

Incidences of urban flood and extreme heat waves (due to the urban heat island effect) are expected to increase in New Zealand under future climate change (IPCC 2022; MfE 2020). Increasingly, the mitigation of such events will depend on the resilience of a range Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) used in Sustainable Urban Drainage Schemes (SUDS), or Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) (Jamei and Tapper 2019; Johnson et al 2021). Understanding the impact of changing precipitation and temperature regimes due climate change is therefore critical to the long-term resilience of such urban infrastructure and design. Cuthbert et al (2022) have assessed the trade-offs between the water retention and cooling benefits of different urban greening methods (such as WSUD) relative to global location and climate. Using the Budyko water-energy balance framework (Budyko 1974), they demonstrated that the potential for water infiltration and storage (thus flood mitigation) was greater where potential evaporation is high relative to precipitation. Similarly, they found that the potential for mitigation of drought conditions was greater in cooler environments. Subsequently, Jaramillo et al. (2022) have illustrated the locations worldwide that will deviate from their current Budyko curve characteristic under climate change scenarios, as the relationship between actual evapotranspiration (AET) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) changes relative to precipitation. Using the above approach we assess the impact of future climate change on the urban water-energy balance in three contrasting New Zealand cities (Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch and Invercargill). The variation in Budyko curve characteristics is then used to describe expected changes in water storage and cooling potential in each urban area as a result of climate change. The implications of the results are then considered with respect to existing WSUD guidelines according to both the current and future climate in each location. It was concluded that calculation of Budyko curve deviation due to climate change could be calculated for any location and land-use type combination in New Zealand and could therefore be used to advance the general understanding of climate change impacts. Moreover, the approach could be used to better define the concept of urban infrastructure resilience and contribute to a better understanding of Budyko curve dynamics under climate change (questions raised by Berghuijs et al 2020)). Whilst this knowledge will assist in implementation of national climate change adaptation (MfE, 2022; UNEP, 2022) and improve climate resilience in urban areas in New Zealand, the approach could be repeated for any global location for which present and future mean precipitation and temperature conditions are known.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.45 no.6
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• pp.517-529
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• 2012

Climate change can impact hydrologic processes of a watershed system. The integrated modeling systems need to be built to predict and analyze the possible impacts of climate change on water environment for the optimal water resource operation and management. In this study, Namgang Dam watershed in the Nakdong River basin was selected as a study area. To evaluate the vulnerability of Namgang Dam watershed caused by climate change, the change in hydrologic runoff were predicted using the watershed model, SWAT. The RCM scenario was analyzed and downscaled using the artificial neural network and the dynamic quantile mapping. The results of this study will be utilized for suggesting an effective counterplan for climate change, and finally to propose the optimal water resource management method.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.19-30
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• 2022

Climate change has increased the average air temperature. Rising air temperature are absorbed by water bodies, leading to increasing water temperature. Increased water temperature will cause eutrophication and excess algal growth, which will reduce water quality. In this study, long-term trends of air and water temperatures in the Han-river basin over the period of 1997-2020 were discussed to assess the impacts of climate change. Future (~2100s) levels of air temperature were predicted based on the climate change scenarios (Representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). The results showed that air and water temperatures rose at an average rate of 0.027℃ year^-1 and 0.038℃ year^-1 respectively, over the past 24 years (1997 to 2020). Future air temperatures under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 increased up to 0.32℃ 1.18℃, 2.14℃, and 3.51℃, respectively. An increasing water temperature could dissolve more minerals from the surrounding rock and will therefore have a higher electrical conductivity. It is the opposite when considering a gas, such as oxygen, dissolved in the water. Water temperature also governs the kinds of organisms that can live in rivers and lakes. Fish, insects, zooplankton, phytoplankton, and other aquatic species all have a preferred temperature range. As temperatures get too far above or below this preferred range, the number of individuals of the species decreases until finally there are none. Therefore, changes of water temperature that are induced by climate change have important implications on water supplies, water quality, and aquatic ecosystems of a watershed.

• Entomological Research
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• v.48 no.6
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• pp.505-513
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• 2018

The red imported fire ant is considered one of the most notorious invasive species because of its adverse impact on both humans and ecosystems. Public concern regarding red imported fire ants has been increasing, as they have been found seven times in South Korea. Even if red imported fire ants are not yet colonized in South Korea, a proper quarantine plan is necessary to prevent their widespread distribution. As a basis for quarantine planning, we modeled the potential distribution of the red imported fire ant under current climate conditions using six different species distribution models (SDMs) and then selected the random forest (RF) model for modeling the potential distribution under climate change. We acquired occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and bioclimatic data from WorldClim. We modeled at the global scale to project the potential distribution under the current climate and then applied models at the local scale to project the potential distribution of the red imported fire ant under climate change. Modeled results successfully represent the current distribution of red imported fire ants. The potential distribution area for red imported fire ants increased to include major harbors and airports in South Korea under the climate change scenario (RCP 8.5). Thus, we are able to provide a potential distribution of red imported fire ant that is necessary to establish a proper quarantine plan for their management to minimize adverse impacts of climate change.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.120-139
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• 2020

This study is to assess the future agricultural land use and climate change impacts on irrigation water requirement using CLUE-s(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) and RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 HadGEM3-RA(Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 Regional Atmosphere) scenario. For Nonsan city(55,517.9ha), the rice paddy, upland crop, and greenhouse cultivation were considered for agricultural land uses and DIROM(Daily Irrigation Reservoir Operation Model) was applied to benefited areas of Tapjeong reservoir (5,713.3ha) for Irrigation Water Requirement(IWR) estimation. For future land use change simulation, the CLUE-s used land uses of 2007, 2013, and 2019 from Ministry of Environment(MOE) and 6 classes(water, urban, rice paddy, upland crop, forest, and greenhouse cultivation). In 2100, the rice paddy and upland crop areas decreased 5.0% and 7.6%, and greenhouse cultivation area increased 24.7% compared to 2013. For the future climate change scenario considering agricultural land use change, the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 2090s(2090~2099) IWR decreased 2.1% and 1.0% for rice paddy and upland crops, and increased 11.4% for greenhouse cultivation compared to pure application of future climate change scenario.