• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.55 no.3
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• pp.13-24
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• 2013

Agriculture is affected directly by climate conditions and changes, and it is necessary to understand the impact of climate change on agricultural reservoirs which are the main water resources for paddy fields in Korea. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change on the anti-drought capacity including water supply capability (WSC) and drought response ability (DRA) of agricultural reservoirs based on RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of CanESM2 (The Second Generation Earth System Model) provided by CCCma (Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis). The WSC and DRA were estimated using frequency analysis and runs theory. The six reservoirs (Yooshin, Nogok, Kumsung, Songgok, Gapyung, Seoma) were selected considering geographical characteristics and design criteria of reservoir capacity. In case of Seoma reservoir, more than 10 year drought return period (DRP), the variation of the WSC was estimated larger than the others. In case of Yooshin reservior (2~5 DRP) DRC was decreased in 2025s under RCP8.5. These results could be utilized for agricultural reservoirs management and future design criteria considering climate change impacts on paddy irrigation.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.28 no.5
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• pp.483-491
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• 2019

In orderto cope with the post-2020 in accordance with the Paris Agreement, greenhouse gas (GHG)reduction in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and its contributions to post-2020 were discussed. The 26 Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) administered by Geum-River Basin Environmental Office from 2010 to 2019 were analyzed for reviewing GHG mitigation measures. From the case study, it was found that the assessment of GHG emissions reduction and climate change adaptation were not appropriately performed. In this study, the following measures are proposed to improve the inappropriate assessment of 'GHG subject matter' associated with EIA according to post-2020, 1) allotment of enforced charge on GHG emission during the EIA process, 2) addition of the 'GHG subject matter' in 'establishing permissible discharge standards' which is based on "Act on the Integrated Control of Pollutant-discharging Facilities", and 3) the participation of stakeholders in early EIA stage for governance. Also the details on the EIA for the preparedness of post-2020 were discussed here.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.107-121
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• 2011

To assess the impact of climate change on water quality in an impounded river basin, this study estimated future air temperature and rainfall in the years of 2020, 2050 and 2080 by statistically downscaling the simulation results from two GCM models combined with two emission scenarios (A2 and B1). Both scenarios were selected from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) suggested by IPCC. The A2 scenario represents an extreme condition whereas the B1 scenario represents a clean and energy efficient condition which is similar to that of study basin. With the results of estimated climate factors and land use data, the discharge and the concentrations of BOD, TN and TP in the Andong dam basins were simulated using the SWAT model. The change in BOD concentration for the B1 emission scenario was greater than the A2 scenario in the annual increase range and the pollution level. The concentration of TN was decreased during March? June which is drought period and increased again afterward. In contrast to TN, the concentration of TP was generally decreased. The change in TP concentration was greater for the B1 scenario than the A2 scenario.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.677-693
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• 2013

IPCC showed that calculation of climate vulnerability index requires standardization process of various proxy variables for the estimation of climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. In this study, four different methodologies of standardization methods: Z-score, Rescaling, Ranking, and Distance to the reference country, are employed to evaluate climate vulnerability-VRI (Vulnerability-Resilience Indicator) over Korean peninsula, and the error ranges of VRI, arising from employing the different standardization are estimated. All of proxy variables are provided by CCGIS (Climate Change adaptation toolkit based on GIS) which hosts information on both past and current socio-economic data and climate and environmental IPCC SRES (A2, B1, A1B, A1T, A1FI, and A1 scenarios) climate data for the decades of 2000s, 2020s, 2050s, and 2100s. The results showed that Z-score and Rescaling methods showed statistically undistinguishable results with minor differences of spatial distribution, while Ranking and Distance to the reference country methods showed some possibility to lead the different ranking of VRI among South Korean provinces, depending on the local characteristics and reference province. The resultant VRIs calculated from different standardization methods showed Cronbach's alpha of more than 0.84, indicating that all of different methodologies were overall consistent. Similar horizontal distributions were shown with the same trends: VRI increases as province is close to the coastal region and/or it close toward lower latitude, and decreases as it is close to urbanization area. Other characteristics of the four different standardization are discussed in this study.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.10
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• pp.877-889
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• 2009

This study is to assess the future potential impact of climate change on stream water quality for a 6,581.1 km$^2$ dam watershed using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. The ECHAM5-OM climate data of IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A2, A1B, and B1 emission scenarios were adopted and the future data (2007-2099) were corrected using 30 years (1977-2006, baseline period) weather data and downscaled by Change Factor (CF) method. After model calibration and validation using 6 years (1998-2003) observed daily streamflow and monthly water quality (SS, T-N, and T-P) data, the future (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) hydrological behavior and stream water quality were projected.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.63 no.6
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• pp.1-16
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• 2021

Global warming due to climate change is expected to significantly affect the hydrological cycle of agriculture. Therefore, in order to predict the magnitude of climate impact on agricultural water resources in the future, it is necessary to estimate the water demand for irrigation as the climate change. This study aimed at evaluating the future changes in water demand for irrigation under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios for paddy rice in Gimje, South Korea. The APEX-Paddy model developed for the simulation of paddy environment was used. The model was calibrated and validated using the H₂O flux observation data by the eddy covariance system installed at the field. Sixteen General Circulation Models (GCMs) collected from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and downscaled using Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM) were used. The future climate data obtained were subjected to APEX-Paddy model simulation to evaluate the future water demand for irrigation at the paddy field. Changes in water demand for irrigation were evaluated for Near-future-NF (2011-2040), Mid-future-MF (2041-2070), and Far-future-FF (2071-2100) by comparing with historical data (1981-2010). The result revealed that, water demand for irrigation would increase by 2.3%, 4.8%, and 7.5% for NF, MF and FF respectively under SSP2-4.5 as compared to the historical demand. Under SSP5-8.5, the water demand for irrigation will worsen by 1.6%, 5.7%, 9.7%, for NF, MF and FF respectively. The increasing water demand for irrigating paddy field into the future is due to increasing evapotranspiration resulting from rising daily mean temperatures and solar radiation under the changing climate.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.47-58
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• 2018

In this study, we evaluated the uncertainty in the process of selecting GCM and downscaling method for assessing the impact of climate change, and influence of user-centered climate change information on reproducibility of Chungju Dam inflow was analyzed. First, we selected the top 16 GCMs through the evaluation of spatio-temporal reproducibility of 29 raw GCMs using 30-year average of 10-day precipitation without any bias-correction. The climate extreme indices including annual total precipitation and annual maximum 1-day precipitation were selected as the relevant indices to the dam inflow. The Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM) downscaling method was selected through the evaluation of reproducibility of selected indices and spatial correlation among weather stations. SWAT simulation results for the past 30 years period by considering limitations in weather input showed the satisfactory results with monthly model efficiency of 0.92. The error in average dam inflow according to selection of GCMs and downscaling method showed the bests result when 16 GCMs selected raw GCM analysi were used. It was found that selection of downscaling method rather than selection of GCM is more is important in overall uncertainties. The average inflow for the future period increased in all RCP scenarios as time goes on from near-future to far-future periods. Also, it was predicted that the inflow volume will be higher in the RCP 8.5 scenario than in the RCP 4.5 scenario in all future periods. Maximum daily inflow, which is important for flood control, showed a high changing rate more than twice as much as the average inflow amount. It is also important to understand the seasonal fluctuation of the inflow for the dam management purpose. Both average inflow and maximum inflow showed a tendency to increase mainly in July and August during near-future period while average and maximum inflows increased through the whole period of months in both mid-future and far-future periods.

• KCID journal
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.89-98
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• 2014

This study is to evaluate the future potential impact of climate change on soil erosion loss in a metropolitan area using Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation(RUSLE) with land use information of the Ministry of Environment and rainfall data for present and future years(30-year period). The spatial distribution map of vulnerable areas to soil erosion was prepared to provide the basis information for soil conservation and long-term land use planning. For the future climate change scenario, the MIROC3.2 HiRes A1B($CO_2720ppm$ level 2100) was downscaled for 2040-2069(2040s) and 2070-2099(2080s) using the stochastic weather generator(LARS-WG) with average rainfall data during past 30 years(1980-2010, baseline period). By applying the climate prediction to the RUSLE, the soil erosion loss was evaluated. From the results, the soil erosion loss showed a general tendency to increase with rainfall intensity. The soil loss increased up to 13.7%(55.7 ton/ha/yr) in the 2040s and 29.8%(63.6 ton/ha/yr) in the 2080s based on the baseline data(49.0 ton/ha/yr).

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.507-514
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• 2009

In this study, a dynamic modeling scheme is presented to describe the probabilistic structure of soil water and plant water stress index under stochastic precipitation conditions. The proposed model has the form of the Fokker-Planck equation, and its applicability as a model for the probabilistic evolution of the soil water and plant water stress index is investigated under a climate change scenario. The simulation results of soil water confirm that the proposed soil water model can properly reproduce the observations and show that the soil water behaves with consistent cycle based on the precipitation pattern. The simulation results of plant water stress index show two different PDF patterns according to the precipitation. The simple impact assessment of climate change to soil water and plant water stress is discussed with Korean Meteorological Administration regional climate model.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.33 no.6_2
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• pp.1119-1137
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• 2017

This study assessed the water provisioning and climate mitigation ecosystem services of the urban forest in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do. The ecosystem service assessment is conducted based on natural function, natural function and population, and natural function and the beneficiary of the ecosystem service. Then, the impact of climate change on ecosystem services is analyzed to figure out the sensitivity of the impact on the beneficiary when the natural function of forest destroys under climate change. Gyeonggi-do has higher function-based water provisioning ecosystem service than Seoul. And population-based water provisioning ecosystem service appears to be higher in the densely populated area. On the other hand, beneficiary-based water provisioning ecosystem service by applying both natural water supply function and beneficiary distribution appears different with the result of population-based water provisioning service assessment. In other words, regions with high beneficiary population show higher ecosystem service than those with a low beneficiary population even though they have the same water storage function. In addition, climate change has a negative impact on the water provisioning ecosystem service. Under climate change, water provisioning service is expected to decrease by 26%. For climate mitigation service, regions close to the forest seem to have a low temperature, which indicates their high climate mitigation service. The center of the city with high beneficiary population shows high beneficiary-based ecosystem service. The climate change impacts the forest growth to decrease which affect the beneficiary-based climate mitigation ecosystem service to decrease by 33%. From this study, we conclude that beneficiary-based function and ecosystem service assessment is needed as well as the supply-based classification of forest function suggested by Korea Forest Service. In addition, we suggest that not only supply-based function classification and ecosystem service assessment but also beneficiary-based function classification and ecosystem service assessment is needed for managing the urban forest, which has been destroyed by climate change. This will contribute to revaluing cases where a forest with low natural function but high beneficiary-based ecosystem service, which is not considered under the current forest function-based assessment system. Moreover, this could assist in developing a suitable management plan for the urban forest.