• Title/Summary/Keyword: climate change impact assessment

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Development of a deep neural network model to estimate solar radiation using temperature and precipitation (온도와 강수를 이용하여 일별 일사량을 추정하기 위한 심층 신경망 모델 개발)

  • Kang, DaeGyoon;Hyun, Shinwoo;Kim, Kwang Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.85-96
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    • 2019
  • Solar radiation is an important variable for estimation of energy balance and water cycle in natural and agricultural ecosystems. A deep neural network (DNN) model has been developed in order to estimate the daily global solar radiation. Temperature and precipitation, which would have wider availability from weather stations than other variables such as sunshine duration, were used as inputs to the DNN model. Five-fold cross-validation was applied to train and test the DNN models. Meteorological data at 15 weather stations were collected for a long term period, e.g., > 30 years in Korea. The DNN model obtained from the cross-validation had relatively small value of RMSE ($3.75MJ\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$) for estimates of the daily solar radiation at the weather station in Suwon. The DNN model explained about 68% of variation in observed solar radiation at the Suwon weather station. It was found that the measurements of solar radiation in 1985 and 1998 were considerably low for a small period of time compared with sunshine duration. This suggested that assessment of the quality for the observation data for solar radiation would be needed in further studies. When data for those years were excluded from the data analysis, the DNN model had slightly greater degree of agreement statistics. For example, the values of $R^2$ and RMSE were 0.72 and $3.55MJ\;m^{-2}\;d^{-1}$, respectively. Our results indicate that a DNN would be useful for the development a solar radiation estimation model using temperature and precipitation, which are usually available for downscaled scenario data for future climate conditions. Thus, such a DNN model would be useful for the impact assessment of climate change on crop production where solar radiation is used as a required input variable to a crop model.

Reproductive Performance of Holstein Dairy Cows Grazing in Dry-summer Subtropical Climatic Conditions: Effect of Heat Stress and Heat Shock on Meiotic Competence and In vitro Fertilization

  • Pavani, Krishna;Carvalhais, Isabel;Faheem, Marwa;Chaveiro, Antonio;Reis, Francisco Vieira;da Silva, Fernando Moreira
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.334-342
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    • 2015
  • The present study was designed to evaluate how environmental factors in a dry-summer subtropical climate in Terceira-Azores (situated in the North Atlantic Ocean: $38^{\circ}43^{\prime}N27^{\circ}12^{\prime}W$) can affect dairy cow (Holstein) fertility, as well as seasonal influence on in vitro oocytes maturation and embryos development. Impact of heat shock (HS) effects on in vitro oocyte's maturation and further embryo development after in vitro fertilization (IVF) was also evaluated. For such purpose the result of the first artificial insemination (AI) performed 60 to 90 days after calving of 6,300 cows were recorded for one year. In parallel, climatic data was obtained at different elevation points (n = 5) from 0 to 1,000 m and grazing points from 0 to 500 m, in Terceira island, and the temperature humidity index (THI) was calculated. For in vitro experiments, oocytes (n = 706) were collected weekly during all year, for meiotic maturation and IVF. Further, to evaluate HS effect, 891 oocytes were collected in the cold moths (December, January, February and March) and divided in three groups treated to HS for 24 h during in vitro maturation at: C (Control = $38.5^{\circ}C$), HS1 ($39.5^{\circ}C$) and HS2 ($40.5^{\circ}C$). Oocytes from each group were used for meiotic assessment and IVF. Cleavage, morula and blastocyst development were evaluated respectively on day 2, 6, and 9 after IVF. A negative correlation between cow's conception rate (CR) and THI in grazing points (-91.3%; p<0.001) was observed. Mean THI in warmer months (June, July, August and September) was $71.7{\pm}0.7$ and the CR ($40.2{\pm}1.5%$) while in cold months THI was $62.8{\pm}0.2$ and CR was $63.8{\pm}0.4%$. A similar impact was obtained with in vitro results in which nuclear maturation rate (NMR) ranged from 78.4% (${\pm}8.0$) to 44.3% (${\pm}8.1$), while embryos development ranged from 53.8% (${\pm}5.8$) to 36.3% (${\pm}3.3$) in cold and warmer months respectively. In vitro HS results showed a significant decline (p<0.05) on NMR of oocytes for every $1^{\circ}C$ rising temperature ($78.4{\pm}8.0$, $21.7{\pm}3.1$ and $8.9{\pm}2.2$, respectively for C, HS1, and HS2). Similar results were observed in cleavage rate and embryo development, showing a clear correlation (96.9 p<0.05) between NMR and embryo development with respect to temperatures. Results clearly demonstrated that, up to a THI of 70.6, a decrease in the CR occurs in first AI after calving; this impairment was confirmed with in vitro results.

A Sub-grid Scale Estimation of Solar Irradiance in North Korea (북한지역 상세격자 디지털 일사량 분포도 제작)

  • Choi, Mi-Hee;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.41-46
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    • 2011
  • Reliable information on the surface solar radiation is indispensable for rebuilding food production system in the famine plagued North Korea. However, transfer of the related modeling technology of South Korea is not possible simply because raw data such as solar radiation or sunshine duration are not available. The objective of this study is restoring solar radiation data at 27 synoptic stations in North Korea by using satellite remote sensing data. We derived relationships between MODIS radiation estimates and the observed solar radiation at 18 locations in South Korea. The relationships were used to adjust the MODIS based radiation data and to restore solar radiation data at those pixels corresponding to the 27 North Korean synoptic stations. Inverse distance weighted averaging of the restored solar radiation data resulted in gridded surfaces of monthly solar radiation for 4 decadal periods (1983-1990, 1991-2000 and 2001-2010), respectively. For a direct application of these products, we produced solar irradiance estimates for each sub-grid cell with a 30 m spacing based on a sun-slope geometry. These products are expected to assist planning of the North Korean agriculture and, if combined with the already prepared South Korean data, can be used for climate change impact assessment across the whole Peninsula.

Preliminary Report of Observed Urban - Rural Gradient of Carbon Dioxide Concentration across Seoul, Suwon, and Icheon in South Korea (도시 - 전원간 이산화탄소(CO2) 농도구배 예비관측 결과)

  • Chung, U-Ran;Lee, Kyu-Jong;Lee, Byun-Woo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.268-276
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    • 2007
  • Urban atmosphere may play as a harbinger for the future climate change with respect to temperature and $CO_2$ concentration. The Seoul metropolitan area is unique in rapid urbanization and industrialization during the last several decades, providing a natural $CO_2$ dome with increased temperature. This study was carried out to evaluate the feasibility of using the urban-rural environmental gradient in replacement of the IPCC mid-term scenario (after 30-50 years). For this, we measured atmospheric $CO_2$ concentration and air temperature at three sites with different degree of urbanization (Seoul, Suwon, and Icheon). Results from 11-month measurement can be summarized as follows: (1) The annual mean $CO_2$ concentration across 3 sites was in the order of Seoul (439 ppm) > Suwon (419 ppm) > Icheon (416 ppm), showing a substantial urban-rural environmental gradient. (2) The diurnal fluctuation in $CO_2$ concentration was greater in summer than in winter, showing the effect of photosynthesis on local $CO_2$ concentration. (3) The daily maximum $CO_2$ concentration was observed at 0500 LST in spring and summer, 0800 LST in autumn, and 0900 LST in winter, showing the sunrise-time dependence. (4) The observed hourly maximum $CO_2$ concentration averaged for the whole period was 446 ppm in Seoul at 0700 LST, while the minimum was 407 ppm in Suwon at 1500 LST. (5) Compared with the background atmospheric concentration of $CO_2$ in Anmyeon-do (377.4 ppm annual mean), $CO_2$ concentration of the study sites was higher by 14% in Seoul, by 10% in Suwon, and by 9% in Icheon. The observed $CO_2$ concentration in Seoul reached already 98% of the 2030-2040 projection (450 ppm) and 80% of the 2040-2050 projection (550 ppm) under the IPCC BAU scenario, showing a feasibility of using the $CO_2$ dome of Seoul as a natural experimental setting for the mid-term climate change impact assessment.

History and Future Direction for the Development of Rice Growth Models in Korea (벼 작물생육모형 국내 도입 활용과 앞으로의 연구 방향)

  • Kim, Junhwan;Sang, Wangyu;Shin, Pyeong;Baek, Jaekyeong;Cho, Chongil;Seo, Myungchul
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.167-174
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    • 2019
  • A process-oriented crop growth model can simulate the biophysical process of rice under diverse environmental and management conditions, which would make it more versatile than an empirical crop model. In the present study, we examined chronology and background of the development of the rice growth models in Korea, which would provide insights on the needs for improvement of the models. The rice crop growth models were introduced in Korea in the late 80s. Until 2000s, these crop models have been used to simulate the yield in a specific area in Korea. Since then, improvement of crop growth models has been made to take into account biological characteristics of rice growth and development in more detail. Still, the use of the crop growth models has been limited to the assessment of climate change impact on crop production. Efforts have been made to apply the crop growth model, e.g., the CERES-Rice model, to develop decision support system for crop management at a farm level. However, the decision support system based on a crop growth model was attractive to a small number of stakeholders most likely due to scarcity of on-site weather data and reliable parameter sets for cultivars grown in Korea. The wide use of the crop growth models would be facilitated by approaches to extend spatial availability of reliable weather data, which could be either measured on-site or estimates using spatial interpolation. New approaches for calibration of cultivar parameters for new cultivars would also help lower hurdles to crop growth models.

Change of Carbon Fixation and Economic Assessment according to the Implementation of the Sunset Provision (도시공원 일몰제에 의한 탄소고정량과 경제성 분석에 대한 연구)

  • Choi, Jiyoung;Lee, Sangdon
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.126-133
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    • 2020
  • In accordance with the implementation of the sunset provision to cancel the designations of urban park sites that remained unexecuted for a prolonged period until 2020, the park sites in the city center, which account for 90% of the long-term unexecuted urban facilities subjected to the provision, are currently on the verge of development. The total area of the 204 park sites that will disappear in Seoul as a result of this provision is 95 ㎢; moreover, 116 of these are privately-owned. It is expected that the possible changes in the use of these park sites could result in reckless development and reduction of green space, which would ultimately affect the ecosystem. This study applied the InVEST model to calculate the changes in the fixed carbon amount before and after the implementation of the sunset provision to estimate the economic value of these changes. The study focused on Jongno-gu in Seoul because it has the most unexecuted park sites subjected to the lifting of the designation. The research findings show that the fixed carbon amount provided by the unexecuted park sites in Jongno-gu was 374,448 mg, prior to the implementation of the sunset provision; however, the amount was estimated to decrease by 18% to 305,564 mg after its execution. When calculated in terms of average value of the real carbon price, this translated into a loss of approximately 700 million won. In addition, considering the social costs including both climate change and the impact on the ecosystem, an economic loss of approximately 98 billion won was projected. This study is meaningful because its predictions are based on the estimation of fixed carbon amount according to the implementation of the sunset provision in Jongno-gu and scientifically calculates the value of ecological services provided by the parks in the city. This study can serve not only as a basis during the decision-making process for policies related to ecosystem conservation and development, but also as an evidentiary material for the compensation of privately-owned land that is designated as urban park sites and was unexecuted for a prolonged period.

Estimating Carbon Fixation of 14 Crops in Korea (우리나라 주요 작물의 탄소 고정량 산출)

  • Kim, Gun-Yeob;Ko, Byong-Gu;Jeong, Hyun-Cheol;Roh, Kee-An;Shim, Kyo-Moon;Lee, Jeong-Taek;Lee, Deog-Bae;Hong, Suk-Young;Kwon, Soon-Ik
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.460-466
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    • 2009
  • Carbon fixation and density of crops are important to estimate carbon uptake or emission by agricultural production activities and to establish life cycle inventory of crops for assessment of climate change impact. In this study, regional carbon fixation and density in each part of 14 crops, harvest index, and ratio of aboveground to underground were investigated to estimate biomass of 14 crops in Korea by using agricultural statistics data. Biomass yield of potato was $16.5ton\;ha^{-1}$, which was the highest, and those of rice, sweet potato, and garlic were $10.5ton\;ha^{-1}$, $8.7ton\;ha^{-1}$, and $7.5ton\;ha^{-1}$ respectively. Biomass yield of Green onion was the lowest as $2.8ton\;ha^{-1}$. Carbon density of 14 crops were in the order of potato ($6.4ton\;ha^{-1}$), rice ($4.2ton\;ha^{-1}$), sweet potato ($3.4ton\;ha^{-1}$), rape ($2.9ton\;ha^{-1}$) and garlic ($2.8ton\;ha^{-1}$). Regional distribution of carbon contents for each crop mapped revealed that carbon fixation of rice, soybean, sesame, garlic, and green onion were the highest in Jeonnam province, barley, red pepper, and watermelon in Gyeongnam, perilla in Chungnam, peanut in Gyeongbuk, rape and carrot in Jeju, sweet potato in Gyeonggi, potato in Gangwon. The results can be applied for assessing life cycle inventory of crops and crop productivity using remotely sensed data.

Assessment of Green House Gases Emissions using Global Warming Potential in Upland Soil during Pepper Cultivation (고추재배에서 지구온난화잠재력 (Global Warming Potential)을 고려한 토성별 온실가스 발생량 종합평가)

  • Kim, Gun-Yeob;So, Kyu-Ho;Jeong, Hyun-Cheol;Shim, Kyo-Moon;Lee, Seul-Bi;Lee, Deog-Bae
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.886-891
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    • 2010
  • Importance of climate change and its impact on agriculture and environment have increased with a rise of greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentration in Earth's atmosphere, which caus an increase of temperature in Earth. Greenhouse gas emissions such as carbon dioxide ($CO_2$), methane ($CH_4$) and nitrous oxide ($N_2O$) in the Upland field need to be assessed. GHGs fluxes using chamber systems in two upland fields having different soil textures during pepper cultivation (2005) were monitored under different soil textures at the experimental plots of National Academy of Agricultural Science (NAAS), Rural Development Administration (RDA) located in Suwon city, Korea. $CO_2$ emissions were 12.9 tonne $CO_2\;ha^{-1}$ in clay loam soil and 7.6 tonne $CO_2\;ha^{-1}$ in sandy loam soil. $N_2O$ emissions were 35.7 kg $N_2O\;ha^{-1}$ in clay loam soil and 9.2 kg $N_2O\;ha^{-1}$ in sandy loam soil. $CH_4$ emissions were 0.054 kg $CH_4\;ha^{-1}$ in clay loam soil and 0.013 kg $CH_4\;ha^{-1}$ in sandy loam soil. Total emission of GHGs ($CO_2$, $N_2O$, and $CH_4$) during pepper cultivation was converted by Global Warming Potential (GWP). GWP in clay loam soil was higher with 24.0 tonne $CO_2$-eq. $ha^{-1}$ than that in sandy loam soil (10.5 tonne $CO_2$-eq. $ha^{-1}$), which implied more GHGs were emitted in clay loam soil.

Calibration of crop growth model CERES-MAIZE with yield trial data (지역적응 시험 자료를 활용한 옥수수 작물모형 CERES-MAIZE의 품종모수 추정시의 문제점)

  • Kim, Junhwan;Sang, Wangyu;Shin, Pyeong;Cho, Hyeounsuk;Seo, Myungchul
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.277-283
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    • 2018
  • The crop growth model has been widely used for climate change impact assessment. Crop growth model require genetic coefficients for simulating growth and yield. In order to determine the genetic coefficients, regional growth monitoring data or yield trial data of crops has been used to calibrate crop growth model. The aim of this study is to verify that yield trial data of corn is appropriate to calibrate genetic coefficients of CERES-MAIZE. Field experiment sites were Suwon, Jinju, Daegu and Changwon. The distance from the weather station to the experimental field were from 1.3km to 27km. Genetic coefficients calibrated by yield trial data showed good performance in silking day. The genetic coefficients associated with silking are determined only by temperature. In CERES-MAIZE model, precipitation or irrigation does not have a significant effect on phenology related genetic coefficients. Although the effective distance of the temperature could vary depending on the terrain, reliable genetic coefficients were obtained in this study even when a weather observation site was within a maximum of 27 km. Therefore, it is possible to estimate the genetic coefficients by yield trial data in study area. However, the yield-related genetic coefficients did not show good results. These results were caused by simulating the water stress without accurate information on irrigation or rainfall. The yield trial reports have not had accurate information on irrigation timing and volume. In order to obtain significant precipitation data, the distance between experimental field and weather station should be closer to that of the temperature measurement. However, the experimental fields in this study was not close enough to the weather station. Therefore, When determining the genetic coefficients of regional corn yield trial data, it may be appropriate to calibrate only genetic coefficients related to phenology.