• 제목/요약/키워드: climate change impact assessment

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Impact Assessment of Climate Change by Using Cloud Computing (클라우드 컴퓨팅을 이용한 기후변화 영향평가)

  • Kim, Kwang-S.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.101-108
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    • 2011
  • Climate change could have a pronounced impact on natural and agricultural ecosystems. To assess the impact of climate change, projected climate data have been used as inputs to models. Because such studies are conducted occasionally, it would be useful to employ Cloud computing, which provides multiple instances of operating systems in a virtual environment to do processing on demand without building or maintaining physical computing resources. Furthermore, it would be advantageous to use open source geospatial applications in order to avoid the limitations of proprietary software when Cloud computing is used. As a pilot study, Amazon Web Service ? Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2) was used to calculate the number of days with rain in a given month. Daily sets of climate projection data, which were about 70 gigabytes in total, were processed using virtual machines with a customized database transaction application. The application was linked against open source libraries for the climate data and database access. In this approach, it took about 32 hours to process 17 billion rows of record in order to calculate the rain day on a global scale over the next 100 years using ten clients and one server instances. Here I demonstrate that Cloud computing could provide the high level of performance for impact assessment studies of climate change that require considerable amount of data.

Estimating Effects of Climate Change on Ski Industry - The Case of Ski Resorts in South Korea - (스키산업에 기후변화가 미치는 영향 분석 - 한국의 스키장을 사례로 -)

  • Kim, Song-Yi;Park, Chan;Park, Jin-Han;Lee, Dong-Kun
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.432-443
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    • 2015
  • Ski industry is sensitive to climate change. Many studies were carried out to learn the impact on climate change to large scale ski resorts around the world and the results are difficult to be applied to small scale ski resorts in general. So, this study targeted small ski resorts composing the ski industry of Korea and forecasted the impact of climate change. As a result, based on the mitigation efforts to minimize climate changes of the future (RCP 4.5), ski industry could be maintained at the same level of today. However, if climate change continues at the current trend (RCP 8.5), ski resorts will face loss of business days. If 100 days are considered as the minimum days to maintain the ski business, among 17 ski resorts in Korea, 3 ski resorts will be driven out of business by 2030s, 12 more ski resorts by 2060s and remaining 2 ski resort by 2090s will end the business. It means that smaller ski resorts has higher chance of facing difficulties in running business just as large scale ski resorts. Therefore, to sustain the ski business, technical and managerial efforts to adapt to the changing environment is needed.

Distribution of High Mountain Plants and Species Vulnerability Against Climate Change (한반도 주요 산정의 식물종 분포와 기후변화 취약종)

  • Kong, Woo-Seok;Kim, Kunok;Lee, Slegee;Park, Heena;Cho, Soo-Hyun
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.119-136
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    • 2014
  • This work aims to select the potentially vulnerable plant species against climate change at alpine and subalpine belts of Mts. Sorak, Jiri, and Halla, from central, southern, southern insular high mountains of the Korean Peninsula, respectively. The selection of global warming related vulnerable plants were performed by adapting various criteria, such as flora, endemicity, rarity, floristically specific and valuable species, species composition at mountain summits, horizontal and vertical ranges of individual species, and their distributional pattern in the Korean Peninsula. Line and quadrat field surveys along the major trails from all directions at height above 1,500 meters above sea level of Mts, Sorak, Jiri and Halla were conducted each year during spring, summer, and autumn from 2010 to 2011. Based upon above mentioned eight criteria, high level of climate change related potentially vulnerable arboral plants, such as Rhododendron aureum, Taxus caespitosa, Pinus pumila, Oplopanax elatus, Vaccinium uliginosum, and Thuja koraiensis are noticed from at subalpine belt of Mt. Sorak. Species of Abies koreana, Rhododendron tschonoskii, Oplopanax elatus, Taxus cuspidata, Picea jezoensis, and Juniperus chinensis var. sargentii belong to climate change concerned vulnerable species at subalpine belt of Mt. Jiri. High level of climate change related species vulnerability is found at alpine and subalpine belts of Mt. Halla from Diapensia lapponica var. obovata, Salix blinii, Empetrum nigrum var. japonicum, Vaccinium uliginosum, Juniperus chinensis var. sargentii, Taxus cuspidata, Rhamnus taquetii, Abies koreana, Hugeria japonica, Prunus buergeriana, and Berberis amurensis var. quelpartensis. Countermeasures to save the global warming vulnerable plants in situ are required.

Life Cycle Impact Assessment to Corn Field Appling Anaerobic and Aerobic Digestates Including Each Swine Waste Treatment System (돈분처리 시스템을 포함한 액비 시용에 따른 옥수수 재배과정에 대한 전과정 환경영향 평가)

  • Shin, Joung-Du;Lee, Sun-Il;Park, Woo-Kyun;Choi, Yong-Su;Na, Young-Eun;Park, Yoo-Sung
    • Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.35-43
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    • 2014
  • The application of the Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) methodology to analyze the environmental burden of appling the digestates to corn field including different swine waste treatment systems was investigated. The first part of LCA is an inventory of parameters used to emissions released due to the system under investigation. In the following step, the Life Cycle Impact Assessment, the inventory data were analyzed and aggregated in order to finally get one index representing the each environmental burden. Each corn field applied with the aerobic and anaerobic digestates including different swine waste treatment systems was used as an example for the life cycle impact analysis. With analyzing the agricultural environmental burden, it observed that the effect of corn field applied aerobic digestate including digestion system was 7.6 times higher at eutrophication effects, but global warming potential effect was 0.9 times less than its applied anaerobic digestate.

Habitat Prediction and Impact Assessment of Eurya japonica Thunb. under Climate Change in Korea (기후변화에 따른 한반도 사스레피나무의 생육지 예측과 영향 평가)

  • Yun, Jong-Hak;Park, Jeong Soo;Choi, Jong-Yun;Nakao, Katsuhiro
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.291-302
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    • 2017
  • The research was carried out in order to find climate factors which determine the distribution of Eurya japonica, and the potential habitats (PHs) under the current climate and climate change scenario by using species distribution models (SDMs). Four climate factors; the warmth index (WI), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC), summer precipitation (PRS), and winter precipitaion (PRW) : were used as independent variables for the model. Seventeen general circulation models under RCP (Representative concentration pathway) 8.5 scenarios were used as future climate scenarios for the 2050s (2040~2069) and 2080s (2070~2099). Highly accurate SDMs were obtained for E. japonica. The model of distribution for E. japonica constructed by SDMs showed that minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC) is a major climate factor in determining the distribution of E. japonica. The area above the $-5.7^{\circ}C$ of TMC revealed high occurrence probability of the E. japonica. Future PHs for E. japonica were projected to increase respectively by 2.5 times, 3.4 times of current PHs under 2050s and 2080s. It is expected that the potential of E. japonica habitats is expanded gradually. E. japonica is applicable as indicator species for monitoring in the Korean Peninsula. E. japonica is necessary to be monitored of potential habitats.

Suggestion of User-Centered Climate Service Framework and Development of User Interface Platform for Climate Change Adaptation (기후변화 적응을 위한 사용자 중심의 기후서비스체계 제안 및 사용자인터페이스 플랫폼 개발)

  • Cho, Jaepil;Jung, Imgook;Cho, Wonil;Lee, Eun-Jeong;Kang, Daein;Lee, Junhyuk
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2018
  • There is an emphasis on the importance of adaptation against to climate change and related natural disasters. As a result, various climate information with different time-scale can be used for science-based climate change adaptation policy. From the aspects of Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), various time-scaled climate information in Korea is mainly produced by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) However, application of weather and climate information in different application sectors has been done individually in the fields of agriculture and water resources mostly based-on weather information. Furthermore, utilization of climate information including seasonal forecast and climate change projections are insufficient. Therefore, establishment of the Cooperation Center for Application of Weather and Climate Information is necessary as an institutional platform for the UIP (User Interface Platform) focusing on multi-model ensemble (MME) based climate service, seamless climate service, and climate service based on multidisciplinary approach. In addition, APCC Integrated Modeling Solution (AIMS) was developed as a technical platform for UIP focusing on user-centered downscaling of various time-scaled climate information, application of downscaled data into impact assessment modeling in various sectors, and finally producing information can be used in decision making procedures. AIMS is expected to be helpful for the increase of adaptation capacity against climate change in developing countries and Korea through the voluntary participation of producer and user groups within in the institutional and technical platform suggested.

A Study on Categorizing Ecosystem Groups for Climate Change Risk Assessment - Focused on Applicability of Land Cover Classification - (기후변화 리스크 평가를 위한 생태계 유형분류 방안 검토 - 국내 토지피복분류 적용성을 중심으로 -)

  • Yeo, Inae;Bae, Haejin;Hong, Seungbum
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.385-403
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    • 2017
  • This study showed the national ecosystem classification for the spatial standards of ecosystems-based approaches to the risk assessments and adaptation plan. The characteristics of climate change risk assessment, implement national adaptation plans, and ecosystem/habitat classification status was evaluated. Focusing on the land cover classification widely utilized as spatial data for the assessments of biodiversity and ecosystem services in the UK and other countries in Europe, the applicability of the national land cover classification for climate change risk assessments was reviewed. Considering the ecosystem classification for climate change risk assessment and establishing adaptation measures, it is difficult to apply rough classification method to the land cover system because of lack of information on habitat trend by categorization. The results indicated that forest ecosystems and agro-ecosystem occupied 62.3% and 25.0% of land cover, respectively, of the entire country. Although the area is small compared with the land area, wetland ecosystem (2.9%), marine ecosystem (0.4%), coastal ecosystem (0.6%), and urban ecosystem (6.1%) can be included in the risk assessments. Therefore, it is necessary to subdivide below the medium classification for the forest and agricultural land, as well as Inland wetland, which has a higher proportion of habitat preference of taxa than land area, marine/coastal habitat, and transition areas such as urban and natural ecosystem.

Development Strategy for New Climate Change Scenarios based on RCP (온실가스 시나리오 RCP에 대한 새로운 기후변화 시나리오 개발 전략)

  • Baek, Hee-Jeong;Cho, ChunHo;Kwon, Won-Tae;Kim, Seong-Kyoun;Cho, Joo-Young;Kim, Yeongsin
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.55-68
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    • 2011
  • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) has identified the causes of climate change and come up with measures to address it at the global level. Its key component of the work involves developing and assessing future climate change scenarios. The IPCC Expert Meeting in September 2007 identified a new greenhouse gas concentration scenario "Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)" and established the framework and development schedules for Climate Modeling (CM), Integrated Assessment Modeling(IAM), Impact Adaptation Vulnerability(IAV) community for the fifth IPCC Assessment Reports while 130 researchers and users took part in. The CM community at the IPCC Expert Meeting in September 2008, agreed on a new set of coordinated climate model experiments, the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5), which consists of more than 30 standardized experiment protocols for the shortterm and long-term time scales, in order to enhance understanding on climate change for the IPCC AR5 and to develop climate change scenarios and to address major issues raised at the IPCC AR4. Since early 2009, fourteen countries including the Korea have been carrying out CMIP5-related projects. Withe increasing interest on climate change, in 2009 the COdinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment(CORDEX) has been launched to generate regional and local level information on climate change. The National Institute of Meteorological Research(NIMR) under the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has contributed to the IPCC AR4 by developing climate change scenarios based on IPCC SRES using ECHO-G and embarked on crafting national scenarios for climate change as well as RCP-based global ones by engaging in international projects such as CMIP5 and CORDEX. NIMR/KMA will make a contribution to drawing the IPCC AR5 and will develop national climate change scenarios reflecting geographical factors, local climate characteristics and user needs and provide them to national IAV and IAM communites to assess future regional climate impacts and take action.

Climate Change Assessment on Air Temperature over Han River and Imjin River Watersheds in Korea

  • Jang, S.;Hwang, M.
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2015.10a
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    • pp.740-741
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    • 2015
  • the downscaled air temperature data over study region for the projected 2001 - 2099 period were then ensemble averaged, and the ensemble averages of 6 realizations were compared against the corresponding historical downscaled data for the 1961 - 2000 period in order to assess the impact of climate change on air temperature over study region by graphical, spatial and statistical methods. In order to evaluate the seasonal trends under future climate change conditions, the simulated annual, annual DJF (December-January-February), and annual JJA (June-July-August) mean air temperature for 5 watersheds during historical and future periods were evaluated. From the results, it is clear that there is a rising trend in the projected air temperature and future air temperature would be warmer by about 3 degrees Celsius toward the end of 21st century if the ensemble projections of air temperature become true. Spatial comparison of 30-year average annual mean air temperature between historical period (1970 - 1999) and ensemble average of 6-realization shows that air temperature is warmer toward end of 21st century compared to historical period.

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Bio-Economic Relationships between Climate Change and Fisheries (기후변화와 수산업의 관계에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Seong-Kwae;Kwon, Hyeok-Jun;Park, Jong-Wun;Cha, Cheol-Pyo
    • Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.388-401
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    • 2010
  • This research aims at analyzing impacts of climate change on fisheries. Climate change is an additional pressure on top of the many which fish stocks already experience. This implies that the impact of climate change must be evaluated in the context of other anthropogenic pressures, which often have a much greater and more immediate effect. Conversely, it is evident that fish stocks will be more resilient to climate impacts if the stresses due to other factors, such as over-fishing and pollution, are minimized. Improved management of fisheries and of marine ecosystems can undoubtedly play an important role in adapting to the impacts of climate change. Most of the improvements which are needed do not require new science or understanding, they require patient development of acceptable, effective, responsive social institutions and instruments for achieving adaptive management. Management advices must include complete and transparent information on risks and uncertainties which arise from data quality and from structural deficiencies in the assessment models. Well-designed and reliable monitoring of fish stocks and the marine ecosystem is essential in order to detect changes and give warning in advance of alterations in the productivity of individual species and of the structure and functioning of the ecosystem and fishery economy on which they depend.