• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.8
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• pp.653-666
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• 2011

The purposes of this study are to suggest flood vulnerability assessment method on climate change with evaluation of this method over the 5 river basins and to present the uncertainty range of assessment using multi-model ensemble scenarios. In this study, the data related to past historical flood events were collected and flood vulnerability index was calculated. The vulnerability assessment were also performed under current climate system. For future climate change scenario, the 39 climate scenarios are obtained from 3 different emission scenarios and 13 GCMs provided by IPCC DDC and 312 hydrology scenarios from 3 hydrological models and 2~3 potential evapotranspiration computation methods for the climate scenarios. Finally, the spatial and temporal changes of flood vulnerability and the range of uncertainty were performed for future S1 (2010~2039), S2 (2040~2069), S3 (2070~2099) period compared to reference S0 (1971~2000) period. The results of this study shows that vulnerable region's were Han and Sumjin, Youngsan river basins under current climate system. Considering the climate scenarios, variability in Nakdong, Gum and Han river basins are large, but Sumjin river basin had little variability due to low basic-stream ability to adaptation.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.149-170
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• 2012

The United Nations Climate Change Conference, Durban 2011, ended on December 12, 2011, 36 hours over its schedule, delivering the Durban Package, which consisted of, inter alia, the extension of the period for Kyoto Protocol term and the launch of Ad-hoc working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action. Despite the positive progress made in Durban, the future of post-2012 climate regime still seems cloudy. Before the Durban conference, some of Annex I countries with emissions reduction commitment under the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period openly declared their intention not to participate in the second one, reducing the effectiveness of Durban agreement. Parties to the conference have a long list of difficult issues disturbing the materialization of the new legal agreement in 2020 such as level of mitigation targets of individual countries and legal nature of their commitment. Given this uncertainty, the Korean government should reinforce its domestic climate policies rather than settling in the fact that it remains as a non-Annex I county party under the Durban Agreement due to the extension of the Kyoto Protocol period. Domestically, it needs to continue to raise the public awareness for rigorous climate policies to transit its economy to low carbon pathway which reduces the country's dependency on fossil fuel in the long term. It is also important to implement cost effective climate policies to cope with domestic resistance and international competitiveness. Internationally, its priority would be working for trust-building in the on-going negotiation meetings to encourage meaningful participation of all parties.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.11
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• pp.921-931
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• 2009

For the assessment of climate change impacts for the Byeongseong stream, CGCM 3.1 T63 is selected as future climate information. The projections come from CGCM used to simulate the GHG emission scenario known as A2. Air temperature and precipitation information from the GCM simulations are converted to regional scale data using the statistical downscaling method known as MSPG. Downscaled climate data from GCM are then used as the input data for the SWAT model to generate regional runoff and water quality estimates in the Byeongseong stream. As a result of simple sensitivity analysis, the increase of CO2 concentration leads to increase water yield through reduction of evapotranspiration and increase of soil water. Hydrologic responses to climate change are in phase with precipitation change. Climate change is expected to reduce water yields in the period of 2021-2030. In the period of 2051-2060, stream flow is expected to be reduced in spring season and increased in summer season. While soil losses are also in phase with water yields, nutrient discharges (i.e., total nitrogen) are not always in phase with precipitation change. However, it should be noted that there are a lot of uncertainties in such multiple-step analysis used to convert climate information from GCM-based future climate projections into hydrologic information.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.54 no.4
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• pp.334-345
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• 2021

The present study investigated the effect of global warming on germination and initial growth across six deciduous oak species (Quercus mongolica, Q. variabilis, Q. serrata, Q. dentata, Q. aliena, and Q. acutissima), which are the dominant tree species in Korea forest ecosystems. Seeds were sown in climate change treatments, with temperatures higher than those of the control (approximately 3.0℃ higher), and CO₂ concentrations higher than those of the control (approximately 2-fold higher). Initial growth in each species was measured every two weeks. Initial growth was more rapid in all oak species at the time of root and shoot emergence under high temperature and CO₂ treatments than in the control group. Leaf emergence in Q. mongolica, Q. variabilis, and Q. serrata occurred earlier under the climate change treatments than under the control. Root length increased significantly in Q. mongolica, Q. variabilis, and Q. dentata under the climate change treatments when compared to under the control. However, Q. aliena and Q. serrata exhibited a contrasting trends, and no significant difference was observed between the species and Q. acutissima. Shoot length increased significantly in Q. aliena under climate change treatments when compared to under the control but decreased in Q. aliena. In addition, no significant difference was observed in shoot length among Q. mongolica, Q. dentata, and Q. acutissima. The results showed that climate change treatments facilitated early growth, rapid emergence from the ground, leaf development, and enhanced belowground growth in Q. mongolica. Conversely, Q. aliena exhibited the lowest aboveground and belowground growth under climate change treatments when compared to other oak species. Climate change treatments had the least impact on Q. acutissima considering the insignificant differences observed in initial growth rates under climate change treatment.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.42-55
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• 2017

Since the phases and patterns of the climate adaptability of vegetation can greatly differ from region to region, an intensive pixel scale approach is required. In this study, Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression on satellite image-based vegetation index is conducted for to assess the effect of climate factors on vegetation productivity and to predict future productivity of forests vegetation in South Korea. The results indicate that the mean temperature of wettest quarter (Bio8), mean temperature of driest quarter (Bio9), and precipitation of driest month (Bio14) showed higher influence on vegetation productivity. The predicted 2050 EVI in future climate change scenario have declined on average, especially in high elevation zone. The results of this study can be used in productivity monitoring of climate-sensitive vegetation and estimation of changes in forest carbon storage under climate change.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.4
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• pp.371-381
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• 2018

Domestic agricultural reservoir dam facilities are difficult to manage water resources because of the in summer rainfall increase due to aging and climate change, it is expected that the dam risk will be large due to the overflow. In this study, author selected study basin in order to evaluate hydrological safety of agricultural reservoir dam facilities. And calculated the probable rainfall, Present PMP, Future PMP considering climate change. Also, author carried quantitative analysis out for increasing rainfall due to climate change, analyze freeboard assessment of agricultural reservoir by calculate flood discharge, reservoir flood routing according to rainfall scenarios. As a result of evaluate hydrological safety of agricultural reservoir dam facilities using Future PMP considering climate change, Gosam, Kumkwang, Miho, Cheongcheon reservoir had the Highest Water Level over the design flood level, it is analyzed that it would be vulnerable to overflow risk.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.38 no.5
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• pp.645-654
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• 2018

Extreme rainfall events caused severe damage to human life and property due to the inundation in major urban areas. In particular, the increase in the intensity of rainfall due to climate change causes changes in the design flood discharge. As a result, it causes uncertainty in the design criteria of hydraulic structures. However, quantitative analysis results have not been provided due to the limitations of climate scenarios and the uncertainty in climate changes. Therefore, this research chose Bulgwangcheon basin as the target basin to analysis the discharge considering climate change. As the result, it is necessary to strengthen design standards since the amount of discharge increased by 14.2% even in the near future.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.3 no.2
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• pp.143-151
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• 2012

This study analyzes United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and domestic-foreign support policy for renewable, also confirms the need for sound and sustainable development to minimize adverse impacts on the environment. Main source of greenhouse gas emissions leading to global warming needs to be resolved through the introduction of renewable energy system by developing low-carbon city. Case studies show the directions for practical response to climate change on the basis of introduction of renewable energy. This case studies can be served as the base model that reduces greenhouse gases with the introduction of renewable energy facilities in the new land development project and obtains economic benefits from CDM project.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.spc
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• pp.1045-1056
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• 2018

During the last decades, considerable efforts have been spent for climate studies, in particular to better understand changing climate. In turn, several significant trends in climatic variables have been reported. Explaining such trends is challenging - some of them have been considered contradictory to another. Various hypotheses have also been suggested for general description of changing climate. At this point in time, it would be beneficial to look back and carefully recollect our knowledge about climate change. In this paper, we aim to provide a comprehensive review on our forefront knowledge in this context with focus on the trends in temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, evaporation, and precipitation. Major trends, namely warming, dimming, and stilling, are demonstrated together with evaporation paradox and increasing precipitation variability, using data at Seoul. On the basis of understanding these notions, we suggest four key implications to hydrologists and engineers.

• Atmosphere
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.367-379
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• 2022

In this paper, the evaluation of the performance of Korea Meteorological Administratio (KMA) Global Seasonal forecasting system version 6 (GloSea6) is presented by assessing the effects of larger ensemble size and carrying out the test using different initial conditions for hindcast in sub-seasonal to seasonal scales. The number of ensemble members increases from 3 to 7. The Ratio of Predictable Components (RPC) approaches the appropriate signal magnitude with increase of ensemble size. The improvement of annual variability is shown for all basic variables mainly in mid-high latitude. Over the East Asia region, there are enhancements especially in 500 hPa geopotential height and 850 hPa wind fields. It reveals possibility to improve the performance of East Asian monsoon. Also, the reliability tends to become better as the ensemble size increases in summer than winter. To assess the effects of using different initial conditions, the area-mean values of normalized bias and correlation coefficients are compared for each basic variable for hindcast according to the four initial dates. The results have better performance when the initial date closest to the forecasting time is used in summer. On the seasonal scale, it is better to use four initial dates, where the maximum size of the ensemble increases to 672, mainly in winter. As the use of larger ensemble size, therefore, it is most efficient to use two initial dates for 60-days prediction and four initial dates for 6-months prediction, similar to the current Time-Lagged ensemble method.