Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies (한국지리정보학회지)

The Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies (한국지리정보학회)
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Predicting Future Terrestrial Vegetation Productivity Using PLS Regression

PLS 회귀분석을 이용한 미래 육상 식생의 생산성 예측

  • CHOI, Chul-Hyun (Division of Ecological Conservation, National Institute of Ecology) ;
  • PARK, Kyung-Hun (Department of Environmental Engineering, Changwon National University) ;
  • JUNG, Sung-Gwan (Department of Landscape Architecture, Kyungpook National University)
  • 최철현 (국립생태원 생태보전연구실) ;
  • 박경훈 (창원대학교 환경공학과) ;
  • 정성관 (경북대학교 조경학과)
  • Received : 2016.12.16
  • Accepted : 2017.02.06
  • Published : 2017.03.31
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Abstract

Since the phases and patterns of the climate adaptability of vegetation can greatly differ from region to region, an intensive pixel scale approach is required. In this study, Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression on satellite image-based vegetation index is conducted for to assess the effect of climate factors on vegetation productivity and to predict future productivity of forests vegetation in South Korea. The results indicate that the mean temperature of wettest quarter (Bio8), mean temperature of driest quarter (Bio9), and precipitation of driest month (Bio14) showed higher influence on vegetation productivity. The predicted 2050 EVI in future climate change scenario have declined on average, especially in high elevation zone. The results of this study can be used in productivity monitoring of climate-sensitive vegetation and estimation of changes in forest carbon storage under climate change.

식생의 기후 적응력은 지역에 따른 상황 및 공간적 패턴이 다르게 나타나기 때문에 픽셀 스케일의 접근이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 위성영상 기반 식생지수에 대해 PLS 회귀분석을 적용하여 식생의 생산성에 영향을 미치는 기후요인을 평가하고 남한지역의 미래 산림 생산성을 예측하였다. 그 결과, 최고강수분기의 평균기온(Bio8), 최저강수분기의 평균기온(Bio9), 최저강수월의 강수량(Bio14) 변수가 식생의 생산성에 높은 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 미래 기후시나리오 자료를 이용하여 예측된 2050년의 식생 생산성은 전체적으로 감소하는 것으로 나타났으며, 특히 고지대에서 크게 감소하는 것으로 분석되었다. 이러한 결과는 기후에 민감한 지역의 식생에 대한 생산성 모니터링과 미래 기후변화로 인한 산림 탄소 저장량의 변화를 평가하는데 있어 유용하게 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

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