• Title/Summary/Keyword: classical probability

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Vibrational Relaxation and Bond Dissociation in Methylpyrazine on Collision with N2 and O2

  • Young-Jin Yu;Sang Kwon Lee;Jongbaik Ree
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.67 no.6
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    • pp.407-414
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    • 2023
  • The present study uses quasi-classical trajectory procedures to examine the vibrational relaxation and dissociation of the methyl and ring C-H bonds in excited methylpyrazine (MP) during collision with either N2 or O2. The energy-loss (-ΔE) of the excited MP is calculated as the total vibrational energy (ET) of MP is increased in the range of 5,000 to 40,000cm-1. The results indicate that the collision-induced vibrational relaxation of MP is not large, increasing gradually with increasing ET between 5,000 and 30,000 cm-1, but then decreasing with the further increase in ET. In both N2 and O2 collisions, the vibrational relaxation of MP occurs mainly via the vibration-to-translation (V→T) and vibration-to-vibration (V→V) energy transfer pathways, while the vibration-to-rotation (V→R) energy transfer pathway is negligible. In both collision systems, the V→T transfer shows a similar pattern and amount of energy loss in the ET range of 5,000 to 40,000cm-1, whereas the pattern and amount of energy transfer via the V→V pathway differs significantly between two collision systems. The collision-induced dissociation of the C-Hmethyl or C-Hring bond occurs when highly excited MP (65,000-72,000 cm-1) interacts with the ground-state N2 or O2. Here, the dissociation probability is low (10-4-10-1), but increases exponentially with increasing vibrational excitation. This can be interpreted as the intermolecular interaction below ET = 71,000 cm-1. By contrast, the bond dissociation above ET = 71,000 cm-1 is due to the intramolecular energy flow between the excited C-H bonds. The probability of C-Hmethyl dissociation is higher than that of C-Hring dissociation.

A Robust Conjecture on the Relationship among the Expected Profits of Various Newsvendor Models (여러 가지 뉴스벤더모델의 기대값 사이의 관계에 대한 견고한 추측)

  • Won, You-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2012
  • The present study provides some extensions over a recent work in Won (2011) which investigates properties of the static newsvendor problem under a schedule involving progressive multiple discounts under the assumption that demand is given exogenously. Khouja (1995, 1996) formulated the extended versions over the classical newsvendor model with various discount policies including all-units discount and/or multiple discounts and found that the extended newsvendor models with discount schedules yield higher optimal expected profits than the classical newsvendor model with no-discounts. In this study, we establish a robust conjecture as a stronger statement than Khouja's findings with regard to the general relationship among the expected profits of newsvendor models in the sense that the conjecture holds for every order quantity as well as the optimal order quantity. The conjecture encourages the newsvendor facing quantity discounts to safely implement her own discounts policy to customer or accept quantity discounts offered by the supplier even if the optimal order quantity cannot be ordered due to additional restrictions such as budget or warehouse capacity constraints because the newsvendor models with quantity discounts always yield higher expected profit than the classic newsvendor model without quantity discounts regardless of the order quantity. Results from wide experiments with various probability distributions of demand strongly support our conjecture.

On the use of time-dependent success criteria within risk-informed analyses. Application to LONF-ATWS sequences in PWR reactors

  • Jorge Sanchez-Torrijos;Cesar Queral;Carlos Paris;Maria Jose Rebollo;Miguel Sanchez-Perea;Jose Maria Posada
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.12
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    • pp.4601-4619
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    • 2022
  • The classical Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) does not include any time dependence explicitly. However, the success criteria (SC) could evolve during the cycle for some initiating events. In that sense, there is a type of sequence in which this time-dependency is quite important, the family of Anticipated Transient without Scram (ATWS) sequences in Pressurized Water Reactors. Therefore, a new risk-informed approach is proposed in this paper, which makes it possible to obtain the time-dependent SC evolution of the safety functions affected by the Moderator Temperature Coefficient (MTC) value. Then, the evolution of the ATWS conditional core damage probability (CCDP) could be obtained using a PSA model. To quantify the CCDP, the average values of the time-dependent failure probabilities must be computed. Finally, the comparison between the CCDP obtained through the application of the classical PSA approach and the new one makes it possible to quantify the impact of time-dependence on the SC of the headers that this new risk-informed ATWS approach can provide.

THE PROBABILISTIC METHOD MEETS GO

  • Farr, Graham
    • Journal of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.1121-1148
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    • 2017
  • Go is an ancient game of great complexity and has a huge following in East Asia. It is also very rich mathematically, and can be played on any graph, although it is usually played on a square lattice. As with any game, one of the most fundamental problems is to determine the number of legal positions, or the probability that a random position is legal. A random Go position is generated using a model previously studied by the author, with each vertex being independently Black, White or Uncoloured with probabilities q, q, 1 - 2q respectively. In this paper we consider the probability of legality for two scenarios. Firstly, for an $N{\times}N$ square lattice graph, we show that, with $q=cN^{-{\alpha}}$ and c and ${\alpha}$ constant, as $N{\rightarrow}{\infty}$ the limiting probability of legality is 0, exp($-2c^5$), and 1 according as ${\alpha}$ < 2/5, ${\alpha}=2/5$ and ${\alpha}$ > 2/5 respectively. On the way, we investigate the behaviour of the number of captured chains (or chromons). Secondly, for a random graph on n vertices with edge probability p generated according to the classical $Gilbert-Erd{\ddot{o}}s-R{\acute{e}}nyi$ model ${\mathcal{G}}$(n; p), we classify the main situations according to their asymptotic almost sure legality or illegality. Our results draw on a variety of probabilistic and enumerative methods including linearity of expectation, second moment method, factorial moments, polyomino enumeration, giant components in random graphs, and typicality of random structures. We conclude with suggestions for further work.

An improved response surface method for reliability analysis of structures

  • Basaga, Hasan Basri;Bayraktar, Alemdar;Kaymaz, Irfan
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.175-189
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    • 2012
  • This paper presents an algorithm for structural reliability with the response surface method. For this aim, an approach with three stages is proposed named as improved response surface method. In the algorithm, firstly, a quadratic approximate function is formed and design point is determined with First Order Reliability Method. Secondly, a point close to the exact limit state function is searched using the design point. Lastly, vector projected method is used to generate the sample points and Second Order Reliability Method is performed to obtain reliability index and probability of failure. Five numerical examples are selected to illustrate the proposed algorithm. The limit state functions of three examples (cantilever beam, highly nonlinear limit state function and dynamic response of an oscillator) are defined explicitly and the others (frame and truss structures) are defined implicitly. ANSYS finite element program is utilized to obtain the response of the structures which are needed in the reliability analysis of implicit limit state functions. The results (reliability index, probability of failure and limit state function evaluations) obtained from the improved response surface are compared with those of Monte Carlo Simulation, First Order Reliability Method, Second Order Reliability Method and Classical Response Surface Method. According to the results, proposed algorithm gives better results for both reliability index and limit state function evaluations.

Experimental and analytical studies on stochastic seismic response control of structures with MR dampers

  • Mei, Zhen;Peng, Yongbo;Li, Jie
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.395-416
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    • 2013
  • The magneto-rheological (MR) damper contributes to the new technology of structural vibration control. Its developments and applications have been paid significant attentions in earthquake engineering in recent years. Due to the shortages, however, inherent in deterministic control schemes where only several observed seismic accelerations are used as the trivial input and in classical stochastic optimal control theory with assumption of white noise process, the derived control policy cannot effectively accommodate the performance of randomly base-excited engineering structures. In this paper, the experimental and analytical studies on stochastic seismic response control of structures with specifically designed MR dampers are carried out. The random ground motion, as the base excitation posing upon the shaking table and the design load used for structural control system, is represented by the physically based stochastic ground motion model. Stochastic response analysis and reliability assessment of the tested structure are performed using the probability density evolution method and the theory of extreme value distribution. It is shown that the seismic response of the controlled structure with MR dampers gain a significant reduction compared with that of the uncontrolled structure, and the structural reliability is obviously strengthened as well.

A Study on Modified Linear Prediction Method to Improve Target Estimation (목표물 추정 향상을 위한 수정 선형 예측방법에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Kwan-Hyeong;Joo, Jong-Hyuk
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.337-342
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, we studied a modified linear prediction method to estimate target signal correctly. Linear prediction method estimate direction-of-arrival to linear combination for any antenna element and other antenna elements. Modified linear prediction used optimal weight and posterior probability method. Through simulation, we are comparative analysis about the performance of proposed, bartlett and MUSIC method. From simulation, Bartlett and MUSIC method was estimation 3 targets signal, and proposed method estimated 4 targets. We showed the superior performance of the proposed algorithm relative to the classical method in order to estimate of target signals.

Highly Reliable Watermark Detection Algorithm using Statistical Decision Method in Wavelet Domain (웨이블릿 영역에서 통계적 판정법을 이용한 고신뢰 워터마크 검출 알고리즘)

  • 권성근;김병주;이석환;권기구;김영춘;권기룡;이건일
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.67-77
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    • 2003
  • Watermark detection has a crucial role in copyright protection and authentication for multimedia Because be the correlation -based algorithm which has widely been used in the watermark detection doesn't utilize the distributional characteristics of cover image to be marked, its performance is not optimum. So a new detection algorithm is proposed which is optimum for multiplicative watermark embedding. By relying on statistical decision method, the proposed method is derived according to the Bayes decision theory. Neyman Pearson criterion, and distribution of wavelet coefficients, thus Permitting to minimize the missed detection probability subject to a given false detection probability The superiority of the proposed method has been tested from a robustness perspective. The results confirm the superiority of the proposed technique over classical correlation -based method.

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FMECA using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Fuzzy Logic (결함수분석법과 퍼지논리를 이용한 FMECA 평가)

  • Kim, Dong-Jin;Shin, Jun-Seok;Kim, Hyung-Jun;Kim, Jin-O;Kim, Hyung-Chul
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2007.11a
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    • pp.1529-1532
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    • 2007
  • Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) is an extension of FMEA which includes a criticality analysis. The criticality analysis is used to chart the probability of failure modes against the severity of their consequences. The result highlights failure modes with relatively high probability and severity of consequences, allowing remedial effort to be directed where it will produce the greatest value. However, there are several limitations. Measuring severity of failure consequences is subjective and linguistic. Since The result of FMECA only gives qualitative and quantitative informations, it should be re-analysed to prioritize critical units. Fuzzy set theory has been introduced by Lotfi A. Zadeh (1965). It has extended the classical set theory dramatically. Based on fuzzy set theory, fuzzy logic has been developed employing human reasoning process. IF-THEN fuzzy rule based assessment approach can model the expert's decision logic appropriately. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is one of most common fault modeling techniques. It is widely used in many fields practically. In this paper, a simple fault tree analysis is proposed to measure the severity of components. Fuzzy rule based assessment method interprets linguistic variables for determination of critical unit priorities. An rail-way transforming system is analysed to describe the proposed method.

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Energy Exchanges and Adhesion Probability of Lennard-Jones Cluster Colliding with a Weakly Attractive Static Surface (클러스터-표면 충돌시 부착 확률과 에너지 교환에 대한 분자동력학 시물레이션)

  • Jung, Seung-Chai;Suh, Dong-Uk;Yoon, Woong-Sup
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.1788-1793
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    • 2008
  • Classical molecular dynamics simulations (MDS) were conducted to simulate nano-sized cluster collisions with a weakly attractive static surface. Energy exchanges associated with the cluster collision and the adhesion probability are discussed. Routes of the energy exchanges and the kinetic energy loss are vastly altered in their mode according to the cluster incident velocity. In the elastic collision regime ($V_0$<0.1), most incident kinetic energy is recovered into the rebounding kinetic energy, but a little loss in the incident kinetic energy causes the cluster adhesion. Dissipated kinetic energy is converted into the rotational energy. In the weakly plastic collision regime (0.1<$V_0$<0.3), the transition from elastic to plastic collision occurs, and a large part of the released potential energy is converted into rebounding translational energy. For strongly plastic collisions ($V_0$>0.3), permanent cluster deformation occurs with extensive collapse of the lattice structure inducing a solid-to-solid phase transition; moreover, most of the cluster kinetic energy is converted into cluster potential and thermal energy.

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