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A Phytosociological Study of the Forest Communities in Mt. Palgong(I) -Pinus densiflora Forests- (팔공산(八公山) 삼림군락(森林群落)의 식물사회학적연구(植物社會學的硏究)(I) -소나무림(林)에 대해서-)

  • Cho, Hyun Je;Hong, Sung Cheon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.79 no.2
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    • pp.144-161
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    • 1990
  • Pine forest communities developed in Mt. Palgong, southeastern Korea, were studied phytosociologically, with special reference to multiple management of local forests, and were classified into two communities, Pinus densiflora - Quercus mongolica community(I : mountain forest) and P. densiflora-Climbing plants community (II : valley forest) and six subgroups accompanied by several subgroups. Judging from the coincidence method, the division of communities (vegetation units) was closely related to altitude and topography. Based on vegetation units, a vertical distribution map of pine forest communities was prepared. The species composition(%) of pine forest communities under stratification, in upper and lower tree layer, teas I higher than II, in middle and shrubs lacer II higher than I (Total : Upper 15.5%, Middle 28.4%, Lower 34.6%. Shrubs 21.5%. Sum of mean coverage%i of understory vegetation was II twice as high as I (Total. shrubs 28.4%. forbs 11.4%, Graminoids 11.8%, ferns 1.0%). Based on constance, coverage and d.b.h. class etc., an actual growth and occurrence table of tree species and understory vegetation by vegetation unity were prepared, and could assume a criterion for judging potential dominance-growth conditions.

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The Construction Direction of the ROK NAVY for the Protection of Marine Sovereignty (국가의 해양주권 수호를 위한 한국해군의 전력건설 방향)

  • Shin, In-Kyun
    • Strategy21
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    • s.30
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    • pp.99-142
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    • 2012
  • Withe increased North Korea's security threats, the South Korean navy has been faced with deteriorating security environment. While North Korea has increased asymmetric forces in the maritime and underwater with the development of nuclear weapons, and China and Japan have made a large investment in the buildup of naval forces, the power of the Pacific fleet of the US, a key ally is expected to be weakened. The biggest threat comes from China's intervention in case of full-scale war with North Korea, but low-density conflict issues are also serious problems. North Korea has violated the Armistice Agreement 2,660 times since the end of Korean War, among which the number of marine provocations reaches 1,430 times, and the tension over the NLL issue has been intensifying. With tension mounting between Korea and Japan over the Dokdo issue and conflict escalating with China over Ieo do Islet, the US Navy has confronted situation where it cannot fully concentrate on the security of the Korean peninsula, which leads to need for strengthening of South Korea's naval forces. Let's look at naval forces of neighboring countries. North Korea is threatening South Korean navy with its increased asymmetric forces, including submarines. China has achieved the remarkable development of naval forces since the promotion of 3-step plan to strengthen naval power from 1989, and it now retains highly modernized naval forces. Japan makes an investment in the construction of stat of the art warship every year. Since Japan's warship boasts of its advanced performance, Japan's Maritime Self Defense Force is evaluated the second most powerful behind the US Navy on the assumption that submarine power is not included in the naval forces. In this situation, naval power construction of South Korean navy should be done in phases, focusing on the followings; First, military strength to repel the energy warship quickly without any damage in case of battle with North Korea needs to be secured. Second, it is necessary to develop abilities to discourage the use of nuclear weapons of North Korea and attack its nuclear facilities in case of emergency. Third, construction of military power to suppress armed provocations from China and Japan is required. Based on the above naval power construction methods, the direction of power construction is suggested as follows. The sea fleet needs to build up its war potential to defeat the naval forces of North Korea quickly and participate in anti-submarine operations in response to North Korea's provocations. The task fleet should be composed of 3 task flotilla and retain the power to support the sea fleet and suppress the occurrence of maritime disputes with neighboring countries. In addition, it is necessary to expand submarine power, a high value power asset in preparation for establishment of submarine headquarters in 2015, develop anti-submarine helicopter and load SLAM-ER missile onto P-3C patrol aircraft. In case of maine corps, division class military force should be able to conduct landing operations. It takes more than 10 years to construct a new warship. Accordingly, it is necessary to establish plans for naval power construction carefully in consideration of reality and future. For the naval forces to safeguard maritime sovereignty and contribute to national security, the acquisition of a huge budget and buildup of military power is required. In this regard, enhancement of naval power can be achieved only through national, political and military understanding and agreement. It is necessary to let the nation know that modern naval forces with improved weapon system can serve as comprehensive armed forces to secure the command of the sea, perform defense of territory and territorial sky and attack the enemy's strategic facilities and budget inputted in the naval forces is the essential source for early end of the war and minimization of damage to the people. If the naval power construction is not realized, we can be faced with a national disgrace of usurpation of national sovereignty of 100 years ago. Accordingly, the strengthening of naval forces must be realized.

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Homologous and Heterologous Antibody Response of the Patients with Aspergillosis Against Young Mycelia of Aspergilli by Fluorescence Antibody Reaction (형광항체반응을 이용한 Aspergillus 증 환자의 균사표면항원에 대한 항체반응 양상에 관한 연구)

  • Moon, Hi-Joo;Kwon, Hyuk-Han
    • The Korean Journal of Mycology
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.82-90
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    • 1989
  • Detection of antibody against pathogenic fungi in serum specimens of the patients with pulmonary tuberculosis or other lung diseases has been carried out(male) using the indirect fluorescence antibody technique and immunodiffusion tests. Immunodiffusion tests revealed that 104(36.5%) out of 285 patients examined showed a positive precipitin reaction against one or more of fungal antigens. The majority of ID positive patients 64(61.5%) reacted with Aspergillus fumigatus antigen and 49(47.1%) patients reacted with Candida albicans antigen ID positive reaction to A. fumigatus was found little more frequently among male patients, while Candida albicans reactors were found more frequently among female patients. Age distribution of ID positive reactors was high(49.1-43.3%) in age group of 40-59 years, but least or none in age group of less than 30 years. Age of fungal mycelium used as antigen did not effect sensitivity of the indirect flubrescence (IF) technique in detecting antibody to A. fumigatus. Antibody class against A. fumigatus that showed highest titer was IgG and thus FITC labeled anti-IgG immunoglobulin shoul be preferable. As relatively large amount of cell wall components of Aspergilli shared antigenically, a considerable cross-reaction was observed among A. fumigatus, A. flavus and A. niger, but not much with C. albicans. While (IF) has much better sensitivity when compared with ID, relative specificity of the latter procedure cannot to be overried, so that they could be batter used together in order to obtain quantitative measurement of antibody with relative specificity.

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A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Robo-Advisor Algorithm with Intelligent View Model (지능형 전망모형을 결합한 로보어드바이저 알고리즘)

  • Kim, Sunwoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.39-55
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    • 2019
  • Recently banks and large financial institutions have introduced lots of Robo-Advisor products. Robo-Advisor is a Robot to produce the optimal asset allocation portfolio for investors by using the financial engineering algorithms without any human intervention. Since the first introduction in Wall Street in 2008, the market size has grown to 60 billion dollars and is expected to expand to 2,000 billion dollars by 2020. Since Robo-Advisor algorithms suggest asset allocation output to investors, mathematical or statistical asset allocation strategies are applied. Mean variance optimization model developed by Markowitz is the typical asset allocation model. The model is a simple but quite intuitive portfolio strategy. For example, assets are allocated in order to minimize the risk on the portfolio while maximizing the expected return on the portfolio using optimization techniques. Despite its theoretical background, both academics and practitioners find that the standard mean variance optimization portfolio is very sensitive to the expected returns calculated by past price data. Corner solutions are often found to be allocated only to a few assets. The Black-Litterman Optimization model overcomes these problems by choosing a neutral Capital Asset Pricing Model equilibrium point. Implied equilibrium returns of each asset are derived from equilibrium market portfolio through reverse optimization. The Black-Litterman model uses a Bayesian approach to combine the subjective views on the price forecast of one or more assets with implied equilibrium returns, resulting a new estimates of risk and expected returns. These new estimates can produce optimal portfolio by the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization algorithm. If the investor does not have any views on his asset classes, the Black-Litterman optimization model produce the same portfolio as the market portfolio. What if the subjective views are incorrect? A survey on reports of stocks performance recommended by securities analysts show very poor results. Therefore the incorrect views combined with implied equilibrium returns may produce very poor portfolio output to the Black-Litterman model users. This paper suggests an objective investor views model based on Support Vector Machines(SVM), which have showed good performance results in stock price forecasting. SVM is a discriminative classifier defined by a separating hyper plane. The linear, radial basis and polynomial kernel functions are used to learn the hyper planes. Input variables for the SVM are returns, standard deviations, Stochastics %K and price parity degree for each asset class. SVM output returns expected stock price movements and their probabilities, which are used as input variables in the intelligent views model. The stock price movements are categorized by three phases; down, neutral and up. The expected stock returns make P matrix and their probability results are used in Q matrix. Implied equilibrium returns vector is combined with the intelligent views matrix, resulting the Black-Litterman optimal portfolio. For comparisons, Markowitz mean-variance optimization model and risk parity model are used. The value weighted market portfolio and equal weighted market portfolio are used as benchmark indexes. We collect the 8 KOSPI 200 sector indexes from January 2008 to December 2018 including 132 monthly index values. Training period is from 2008 to 2015 and testing period is from 2016 to 2018. Our suggested intelligent view model combined with implied equilibrium returns produced the optimal Black-Litterman portfolio. The out of sample period portfolio showed better performance compared with the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization portfolio, risk parity portfolio and market portfolio. The total return from 3 year-period Black-Litterman portfolio records 6.4%, which is the highest value. The maximum draw down is -20.8%, which is also the lowest value. Sharpe Ratio shows the highest value, 0.17. It measures the return to risk ratio. Overall, our suggested view model shows the possibility of replacing subjective analysts's views with objective view model for practitioners to apply the Robo-Advisor asset allocation algorithms in the real trading fields.